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  1. Timelines in Emily Brontë's "Wuthering Heights"
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2020]; © 2020
    Verlag:  Peter Lang, Berlin

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 3631805551; 9783631805558
    RVK Klassifikation: HL 2085
    Schriftenreihe: Literary and cultural studies, theory and the (new) media ; volume 6
    Schlagworte: Brontë, Emily; Handlung <Literatur>; Verlauf; Erzählte Zeit; ; Brontë, Emily;
    Umfang: 206 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 199-206
  2. Medicinal and aromatic plants in the North-West of Tunisia
    findings from a value chain and jobs survey
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Salhab, Jade; Sanchez-Quintela, Sonia; Tsatsimpe, Keratilwe
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    This report describes the findings of the value chain and jobs survey on the Medicinal and Aromatic Plants ("MAPs") in the North West of Tunisia. The survey also benchmarks the value chain against other leading countries in the MAPs industry to... mehr

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    This report describes the findings of the value chain and jobs survey on the Medicinal and Aromatic Plants ("MAPs") in the North West of Tunisia. The survey also benchmarks the value chain against other leading countries in the MAPs industry to determine potential productivity gaps and areas for improvements to ultimately increase the sectors' competitiveness and create more and better jobs. This report is part of the "Value Chain Development for Jobs in Lagging Regions - Let's Work Program in Tunisia" which aims to identify some of the most binding constraints affecting the creation and productivity of jobs within targeted value chains in a lagging region in Tunisia and inform relevant World Bank Group lending projects currently in preparation to help tackle these constraints

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34001
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 41
    Schlagworte: Pflanze; Medizinprodukt; Aromastoff; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung; Beschäftigungseffekt; Tunesien; ACCESS TO LAND; AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT GROUP; EMPLOYMENT; FOREST RESOURCE; JOB CREATION; MEDICINAL AND AROMATIC PLANTS; VALUE CHAIN
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Olive oil in the North-West of Tunisia
    findings from a value chain and jobs survey
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Salhab, Jade; Tsatsimpe, Keratilwe; Sanchez-Quintela, Sonia
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    This report describes the findings of the survey on olive oil value chain in the North West of Tunisia, focusing particularly on the current and potential jobs landscapes. The survey also benchmarks the performance of the value chain against other... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    This report describes the findings of the survey on olive oil value chain in the North West of Tunisia, focusing particularly on the current and potential jobs landscapes. The survey also benchmarks the performance of the value chain against other leading countries in olive oil industry to determine potential productivity gaps and areas for improvements to ultimately increase the sectors' competitiveness and create more and better jobs. Together with the companion report on olive oil market segmentation, it provides insights on potential areas for policy interventions. This study is part of the "Value Chain Development for Jobs in Lagging Regions - Let's Work Program in Tunisia" which aims to identify some of the most binding constraints affecting the creation and productivity of jobs within targeted value chains in a lagging region in Tunisia and inform relevant World Bank Group lending projects currently in preparation to help tackle these constraints

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/33999
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 42
    Schlagworte: Olivenöl; Betriebliche Wertschöpfung; Beschäftigungseffekt; Tunesien; COMPETITIVENESS; EMPLOYMENT; JOB CREATION; LABOR MARKET; OLIVE OIL; VALUE CHAIN
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Value chain development for jobs in lagging regions
    Let's Work Program in Tunisia : overview of the approach, impact, and findings (P157321)
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Salhab, Jade
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    This report provides an overview of a World Bank activity to support structural change for competitiveness and employment opportunities in Tunisia's lagging regions based on value chain and cluster analysis. While state-level policy changes are... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    This report provides an overview of a World Bank activity to support structural change for competitiveness and employment opportunities in Tunisia's lagging regions based on value chain and cluster analysis. While state-level policy changes are necessary and important contributions to tackle low growth and job creation in a country, they are often not sufficient. To be effective, these policies need to be accompanied with interventions that address both market and government failures at the local level. The ultimate objective is to create more and better jobs in small and medium-size enterprises by strengthening their competitiveness in a diversified range of markets. The overview report provides the main findings of the value chain and jobs survey, the two related market analyses, and the local capacity building effort that supported the creation of the "Taskforce for Value Chain and Cluster Development" in Tunisia. Each aspect is also covered in a dedicated companion report

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34000
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 43
    Schlagworte: Betriebliche Wertschöpfung; Wirtschaftsindikator; Beschäftigungseffekt; Tunesien; EMPLOYMENT; JOB CREATION; LABOR MARKET; MARKET SEGMENTATION; MEDICINAL AND AROMATIC PLANTS; OLIVE OIL; PROJECT DESIGN; TOMATO; VALUE CHAIN
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Olive oil, medicinal and aromatic plants, and tomatoes in North-West Tunisia
    a roadmap to developing competitive advantage on strategic markets
    Autor*in: Salhab, Jade; Weber, Michael; Paganini, Tindaro; Khamassi, Faten; Bellagha, Sihem; Bel Hadj, Houssem; Laabidi, Fatma
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    This report identifies some of the most binding constraints preventing products in targeted value chains in Tunisia from reaching strategic (high value added) markets and proposes a road map on how to strengthen their competitiveness on these market... mehr

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    This report identifies some of the most binding constraints preventing products in targeted value chains in Tunisia from reaching strategic (high value added) markets and proposes a road map on how to strengthen their competitiveness on these market segments. The analysis is anchored in a strategic segmentation exercise and builds on the outputs of a Value Chain Development training program delivered by the World Bank to the members of Tunisia's "Task Force for Value chain and Cluster Development". The training program's tutors complemented and deepened the analyses started by trainees in the cases of the value chains for olive oil, tomatoes, and rosemary. The report provides an illustration of how such a value chain and cluster development approach can be leveraged to accelerate job creation and reduce inequalities between the leading and the lagging regions of Tunisia

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34002
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 44
    Schlagworte: Olivenöl; Plantage; Tomate; Wettbewerbsvorteil; Marktforschung; Tunesien; COMPETITIVENESS; EMPLOYMENT; GOURMET MARKET; JOB CREATION; LABOR MARKET; MARKET SEGMENTATION; MEDICINAL AND AROMATIC PLANTS; OFF-SEASON; OLIVE OIL; ROSEMARY; TOMATO; VALUE CHAIN
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 104 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Managing the employment impacts of the COVID-19 crisis
    policy options for relief and restructuring
    Autor*in: Carranza Noguera, Eliana; Farole, Thomas; Gentilini, Ugo; Morgandi, Matteo; Packard, Truman; Santos, Indhira; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    This note discusses policy options for managing the employment impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis aimed at relief and restructuring. The note pays attention to the labor market and institutional context of most low and middle-income... mehr

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    This note discusses policy options for managing the employment impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis aimed at relief and restructuring. The note pays attention to the labor market and institutional context of most low and middle-income countries where informality is large and where existing institutions often lack mechanisms to effectively reach businesses and workers in the informal economy. The note covers complementary policies aimed, in the relief phase, at: 1) Helping businesses survive and retain workers; 2) providing protection for those who do lose their jobs and see their livelihoods significantly affected; and 3) facilitating alternative employment and employability support for those who are out of work (collectively known as active labor market programs, ALMP). The note further differentiates between these relief responses and the restructuring response when countries start to reopen for businesses and policies need to aim to support firms' and workers' transition to a "new normal", hopefully a "better normal" that supports a resilient recovery

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34263
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 49
    Schlagworte: Beschäftigungseffekt; Coronavirus; Coping-Strategie; ACCESS TO FINANCE; BUSINESS CONTINUITY; CASHFLOW; CORONAVIRUS; COVID-19; ECONOMIC CRISIS; ECONOMIC RECOVERY; ECONOMIC RELIEF; EMPLOYMENT SUBSIDY; FIRM LIQUIDITY; INFORMAL SECTOR; JOBS; LABOR MARKET; PANDEMIC IMPACT; PANDEMIC RESPONSE; PUBLIC WORKS; SAFETY NETS; SELF-EMPLOYMENT; TARGETING; UNEMPLOYMENT; UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT; WAGE SUBSIDY; WORKER RETENTION
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Political polarization and expected economic outcomes
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree... mehr

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    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals' probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/227350
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13823
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224046
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13604
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27693
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Stabilisierungspolitik; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; CARES Act
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  10. Timelines in Emily Brontë's "Wuthering Heights"
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2020]; © 2020
    Verlag:  Peter Lang, Berlin

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 3631805551; 9783631805558
    RVK Klassifikation: HL 2085
    Schriftenreihe: Literary and cultural studies, theory and the (new) media ; volume 6
    Schlagworte: Brontë, Emily; Handlung <Literatur>; Verlauf; Erzählte Zeit; ; Brontë, Emily;
    Umfang: 206 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 199-206
  11. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments?
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor-supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223582
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8510 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Price rigidity and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations
    Autor*in: Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 864 (enero 2020)
    Schlagworte: Preisrigidität; Input-Output-Analyse; Konjunktur; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Mehrsektoren-Modell; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 878 (mayo 2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentlicher Auftrag; Systematischer Fehler; Dauer; Branche; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Multiplikator; Verdrängungseffekt; Inflation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government... mehr

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    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular; that is, it is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors. Second, relative to private expenditures its composition is biased. Third, procurement contracts are short-lived. Fourth, idiosyncratic variation dominates the fluctuation in spending. Last, government spending is concentrated in sectors with relatively sticky prices. Accounting for these facts within a stylized New Keynesian model offers new insights into the fiscal transmission mechanism: fiscal shocks hardly impact inflation, little crowding out of private expenditure exists, and the multiplier tends to be larger compared to a one-sector benchmark, aligning the model with the empirical evidence.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 15 (May 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays... mehr

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    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays intuitive relations with quantitative measures of cybersecurity risk disclosure language, exhibits a positive trend over time, is more prevalent among industries relying more on information technology systems, correlates with several characteristics linked to firms hit by cyber attacks and, importantly, predicts future cyber attacks. Stocks with high exposure to cybersecurity risk exhibit high expected returns on average, but they perform poorly in periods of increasing attention to cybersecurity risk.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229578
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8760 (2020)
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  16. Manpower constraints and corporate policies
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yang, Shuyao
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of... mehr

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    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of orders (measured in months). They are more willing to increase their capital expenditures, and more willing to grow their employment in the following year. Manpower constraints vary substantially over time and across industries, being higher on average in traditional manufacturing industries and lower in high-tech industries. For identification, we exploit the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and the subsequent differential fluxes of Eastern immigrants across Western states, which followed the pre-existing patterns of Eastern German immigration immediately after WWII. We construct a Manpower Constraint (MPC) Index calibrating the loadings on firm-level financials that are also available in commonly used data set for US, European, and Asian firms. Our results help inform relevant debates such as the reform of immigration policies and the investment in public and private education for low-skilled workers.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229516
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8698 (2020)
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  17. Effective policy communication
    targets versus instruments
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 10 November 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale... mehr

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    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public's trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.

     
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    ISBN: 9789523233539
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    hdl: 10419/240340
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2020, 17
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 28196
    Umfang: 71 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  19. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    Using textual analysis and comparing cybersecurity-risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all US-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is... mehr

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    Using textual analysis and comparing cybersecurity-risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all US-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Portfolios of firms with high exposure to cybersecurity risk outperform other firms, on average, by up to 8.3% per year. At the same time, high-exposure firms perform poorly in periods of high cybersecurity risk. Reassuringly, the measure is higher in information-technology industries, correlates with characteristics linked to firms hit by cyberattacks, and predicts future cyberattacks

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: December 3rd 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 20, 108
    Schlagworte: Cyber attacks; Risk Disclosures; Textual Analysis; Stock returns
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)
  20. The cost of the COVID-19 crisis
    lockdowns,macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: May 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of... mehr

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    We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households’ expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President.

     
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    hdl: 10419/219110
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8292 (2020)
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  21. Forward guidance and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 26778
    Schlagworte: Forward Guidance; Information; Prognose; Zins; Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; USA
    Umfang: 74 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  22. Perceived precautionary savings motives
    evidence from FinTech
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Rauter, Thomas; Scheuch, Christoph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 26817
    Schlagworte: Revolvierender Kredit; Private Finanzplanung; Private Verschuldung; Konsumentenverhalten; Vorsichtssparen; Buffer-Stock-Ansatz der Geldnachfrage; Finanztechnologie; USA; Revolvierender Kredit
    Umfang: 51, 9 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  23. The cost of the COVID-19 crisis
    lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: May 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of... mehr

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    We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households' expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President.

     
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    hdl: 10419/223666
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13224
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis
    a preliminary view
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: April 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by... mehr

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    We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic. We document several facts. First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 8th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession. Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones. As a result, we estimate the rise in the unemployment rate over the corresponding period to be surprisingly small, only about 2 percentage points. Third, participation in the labor force has declined by 7 percentage points, an unparalleled fall that dwarfs the three percentage point cumulative decline that occurred from 2008 to 2016. Early retirement almost fully explains the drop in labor force participation both for those survey participants previously employed and those previously looking for work.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216451
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13139
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Wirtschaftskrise; Beschäftigungseffekt; Arbeitslosigkeit; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsuche
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Gender roles and the gender expectations gap
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Expectations about macro-finance variables, such as inflation, vary significantly across genders, even within the same household. We conjecture that traditional gender roles expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives,... mehr

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    Expectations about macro-finance variables, such as inflation, vary significantly across genders, even within the same household. We conjecture that traditional gender roles expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives, which in turn produce systematic variation in expectations. Using unique data on the contributions of men and women to household grocery chores, their resulting exposure to price signals, and their inflation expectations, we show that the gender expectations gap is tightly linked to participation in grocery shopping. We also document a gender gap in other economic expectations and discuss how it might affect economic choices.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216554
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8158 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen