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  1. On the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates
    evidence from the Southern Cone = Sobre la relación entre tipos de cambio y tipos de interés: evidencia del Cono Sud
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Geisslreither, Kai; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Univ. Hohenheim, Stuttgart

    Standort:
    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge ; 232
    Schlagworte: Wechselkurs; Zins; Volatilität; Wechselkurssystem; Schätzung; Mercosur-Staaten
    Umfang: 27, XI, III S, graph. Darst
  2. EU enlargement, exchange rate variability and labor market performance
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2002
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QB 910
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 213
    Schlagworte: Wechselkurs; Volatilität; Beschäftigungswirkung; Arbeitslosigkeit; Erweiterung; Beitritt; Mitgliedschaft; Schätzung; Wirkungsanalyse
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Wechselkurs; (stw)Volatilität; (stw)Beschäftigungseffekt; (stw)Arbeitslosigkeit; (stw)EU-Mitgliedschaft; (stw)Eurozone; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)Osteuropa; (stw)Wirkungsanalyse; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 38, [11] S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 33 - 36
  3. Challenges to ECB credibility
    Beteiligt: Belke, Ansgar (Mitwirkender)
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    Beteiligt: Belke, Ansgar (Mitwirkender)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QM 333 ; QB 400 ; QB 910 ; QM 333 ; QB 400
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 225
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Notenbank; Glaubwürdigkeit
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Geldpolitik; (stw)Zentralbank; (stw)Glaubwürdigkeit; (stw)Eurozone; (stw)EU-Staaten; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 65 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
  4. Privatization in Austria
    some theoretical reasons and first results about the privatization proceeds
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schneider, Friedrich
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QB 910
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520), Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 229
    Schlagworte: Privatisierung; Ökonomische Theorie der Politik; Public-Choice-Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Privatisierung; (stw)Neue politische Ökonomie; (stw)Österreich; Online-Publikation; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 68 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 62 - 66
  5. Designing EU US atlantic monetary relations
    exchange rate variability and labor markets
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QB 910
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520), Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 195
    Schlagworte: Wechselkurs; Volatilität; Beschäftigungswirkung; Arbeitslosigkeit; Offene Volkswirtschaft; Deregulierung; Schätzung
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Wechselkurs; (stw)Volatilität; (stw)Beschäftigungseffekt; (stw)Arbeitslosigkeit; (stw)Offene Volkswirtschaft; (stw)Arbeitsmarktflexibilität; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)EU-Staaten; (stw)USA; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Als Aufsatz endgültig erschienen; Buch
    Umfang: 40 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
  6. Institutions and structural unemployment
    do capital market imperfections matter?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Fehn, Rainer
    Erschienen: 2000
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Auflage/Ausgabe: (Preliminary version!)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 190
    Schlagworte: Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; Kapitalmarkt; Unvollkommener Markt; Lohnstarrheit; Deregulierung; Risikokapital; Beschäftigungswirkung; Schätzung; Theorie; :z Geschichte 1986-1999
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)1986-1999; (stw)Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; (stw)Finanzmarkt; (stw)Unvollkommener Markt; (stw)Lohnrigidität; (stw)Arbeitsmarktflexibilität; (stw)Risikokapital; (stw)Beschäftigungseffekt; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)Theorie; (stw)OECD-Staaten; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch; Online-Publikation
    Umfang: 36, [14] S., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 34 - 36
  7. Institutions and structural unemployment
    do capital market imperfections matter?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Fehn, Rainer
    Erschienen: [2000]
    Verlag:  Ruhr-Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Bochum

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  8. Institutions and structural unemployment
    do capital market imperfections matter?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Fehn, Rainer
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  CES, Munich ; Ifo

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  9. Fiskalische Transfermechanismen und asymmetrische Schocks in Euroland
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Baumgärtner, Frank
    Erschienen: 2002
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 400 ; QB 400
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 209
    Schlagworte: Schock <Wirtschaft>; Strukturanpassungspolitik; Stabilitätspolitik; Finanzpolitik
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Eurozone; (stw)Schock; (stw)Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; (stw)Stabilisierungspolitik; (stw)Finanzpolitik; (stw)EU-Staaten; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch; Als Aufsatz endgültig erschienen
    Umfang: 17 S., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 15 - 17
  10. How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Polleit, Thorsten
    Erschienen: 2006
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Univ. Hohenheim, Stuttgart

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    KAP 12838
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    Schriftenreihe: Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge ; 269
    Schlagworte: Taylor-Regel; Vergleich; Schätzung; EU-Staaten; USA
    Umfang: 33 S., graph. Darst.
  11. Money and swedish inflation reconsidered
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Polleit, Thorsten
    Erschienen: 2006
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Univ. Hohenheim, Stuttgart

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Schriftenreihe: Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge ; 270
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Geldmenge; Schätzung; Monetärer Indikator; Schweden
    Umfang: 13 S., graph. Darst.
  12. Trade and capital flows: substitutes or complements?
    an empirical investigation
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international... mehr

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    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002-2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207390
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12564
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been... mehr

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    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry‐specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry‐specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207391
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12565
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the... mehr

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    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the capital stock and, explicitly, of stochastic changes on the interest rate-investment hysteresis. Starting with hysteresis effects on a microeconomic level of a single firm, we apply an explicit aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate hysteresis effects on a macroeconomic level. Based on our simple model we are able to obtain some conclusions about the efficacy of a central bank's interest rate policy, e.g. in times of low or even zero interest rates and high uncertainty, in terms of stimulating macroeconomic investment.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207392
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12566
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment
    evidence for the Euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's... mehr

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    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call 'play' area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207393
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12567
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union
    Autor*in: Baas, Timo; Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    For more than two decades now, current-account imbalances are a crucial issue in the international policy debate as they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows that internal... mehr

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    For more than two decades now, current-account imbalances are a crucial issue in the international policy debate as they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows that internal current account imbalances inside a currency union may also add to these risks. Oil price fluctuations and a contracting monetary policy that reacts on oil prices, previously discussed to affect the current account may also be a threat to the currency union by changing internal imbalances. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the impact of oil price shocks on current account imbalances within a currency union. Differences in institutions, especially labor market institutions and trade result in an asymmetric reaction to an otherwise symmetric shock. In this context, we show that oil price shocks can have a long-lasting impact on internal balances, as the exchange rate adjustment mechanism is not available. The common monetary policy authority, however, can reduce such effects by specifying an optimum monetary policy target. Nevertheless, we also show that there is no single best solution. CPI, core CPI or an asymmetric CPI target all come at a cost either regarding an increase in unemployment or increasing imbalances.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206879
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 03 (May 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten)
  17. Trade and capital flows
    substitutes or complements? : an empirical investigation
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international... mehr

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 426
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    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002-2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/206880
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 04 (May 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from... mehr

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    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared. Using quarterly real-time data from 1999 to the beginning of 2019, we find that an estimated Orphanides-Rule performs best in nowcasts, while it is outperformed by an augmented Taylor-Rule when it comes to forecasts. However, also a no-change rule delivers good results for forecasts, which is hard to beat for most policy rules.

     
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    hdl: 10419/206882
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 06 (June 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  19. Did interest rates at the zero lower bound affect lending of commercial banks?
    evidence for the euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the... mehr

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    The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the Bankscope database, bank balance sheet data is utilized. Control variables are included, such as for the system of banking regulation. The panel estimation includes 706 banks from 15 Euro area member states and is conducted for the period 2000 to 2015. All models show a significant positive impact of lower interest rates on net lending. In particular, the results do not indicate that credit is restricted if interest rates move towards the zero-lower bound.

     
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    hdl: 10419/206883
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 07 (July 2019)
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  20. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: [2019
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been... mehr

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    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry‐specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too

     
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    hdl: 10419/206884
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 08 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. From cash to central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies
    a balancing act between modernity and monetary stability
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Beretta, Edoardo
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and... mehr

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    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and saving) instruments like paper money. Which aspects of modern payments systems could contribute to improve the way of functioning of today's globalized economy? And, which might even threaten the above mentioned instable equilibrium? This survey-paper aims, precisely, at giving some preliminary answers to a complex - therefore, ongoing - debate at scientific as well as banking and political level.

     
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    hdl: 10419/206885
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 09 (July 2019)
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  22. Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment
    evidence for the euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank’s... mehr

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    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank’s effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call 'play' area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 10 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Trade and capital flows
    substitutes or complements? : an empirical investigation
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Maastricht

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international... mehr

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    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002-2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/183510
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 269
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Growth prospects and the trade balance in advanced economies
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Elstner, Steffen; Rujin, Svetlana
    Erschienen: February 7, 2020
    Verlag:  Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), Department of Economics, Bochum, Germany

    Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers.... mehr

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    Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth prospects (news shocks) necessarily lead to negative trade balance effects in the G7 countries. We develop a novel news shocks identification scheme, apply it to country-level vector autoregressions (VARs), and obtain the following results. While in the U.S., news shocks induce a persistent deterioration of the trade balance, the negative trade balance effect in Germany is only temporary. By contrast, in other G7 countries, news shocks induce positive and transitory trade balance effects. Consumption smoothing and substantial fluctuations in investment and labor input are important drivers of these results for the U.S., and less so in other G7 countries. Therefore, policy recommendations to reduce the trade imbalances through productivity-enhancing reforms in advanced economies are likely to yield only temporary effects. Führt eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Wachstumsperspektiven in einem Land zu einer Verschlechterung der heimischen Handelsbilanz? Die Bedeutung dieser Forschungsfrage ergibt sich aus der Tendenz zu antizyklischen Schwankungen des Handelsbilanzsaldos, die sowohl die Fachliteratur als auch die politischen Entscheidungsträger betonen. Die Ergebnisse unserer Analyse zeigen, dass eine dauerhafte Verbesserung der Wachstumsperspektiven ("news shocks") in einem Land nicht zwangsläufig mit negativen heimischen Handelsbilanzeffekten in den G7-Ländern einhergeht. Zu diesem Zweck wird in dieser Studie ein neuer Identifikationsansatz entwickelt. Dieser greift auf sog. "news shocks", d.h. die von den Marktteilnehmern antizipierten technologische Innovationen, zurück. Dieser Ansatz wird auf länderspezifische vektorautoregressive Modelle angewendet. Die Ergebnisse unserer Analyse zeigen, dass sich die Handelsbilanz der USA in Folge eines "news shocks" persistent verschlechtert, während es in Deutschland nur zu einer temporären Verschlechterung kommt. Für die restlichen G7-Länder finden wir dagegen sogar eine vorübergehende Verbesserung der Handelsbilanz infolge eines "news shocks". Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Bedeutung intertemporaler Konsumglättung durch die privaten Haushalte sowie von Anpassungen der privaten Investitionsausgaben und des Arbeitseinsatzes zur Erklärung der Handelsbilanzschwankungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund dürften die wirtschaftspolitischen Empfehlungen, die Handelsbilanzungleichgewichte in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften durch produktivitätserhöhende Reformen zu verringern, nur zu vorübergehenden Effekten auf die Handelsbilanzsalden führen.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867889605
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 7, 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #827 [rev.]
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  25. Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the... mehr

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    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the capital stock and, explicitly, of stochastic changes on the interest rate-investment hysteresis. Starting with hysteresis effects on a microeconomic level of a single firm, we apply an explicit aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate hysteresis effects on a macroeconomic level. Based on our simple model we are able to obtain some conclusions about the efficacy of a central bank's interest rate policy, e.g. in times of low or even zero interest rates and high uncertainty, in terms of stimulating macroeconomic investment.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 02 (March 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)