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  1. Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical... mehr

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (971)
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    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
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    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity prices and goods prices movements. The cointegrated VAR model fits with the data for the analysed period from the 1970s until 2008 very well. Our empirical results appear to be overall robust since they pass inter alia a series of recursive tests and are stable for varying compositions of the commodity indices. The empirical evidence is in line with theoretical considerations. The inclusion of commodity prices helps to identify a significant monetary transmission process from global liquidity to other macro variables such as goods prices. We find further support of the conjecture that monetary aggregates convey useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this clear empirical pattern it appears justified to argue that global liquidity merits attention in the same way as the worldwide level of interest rates received in the recent debate about the world savings and liquidity glut as one of the main drivers of the current financial crisis, if not possibly more. -- Commodity prices ; cointegration ; CVAR analysis ; global liquidity ; inflation ; international spillovers

     
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    hdl: 10419/36740
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 971
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Liquidität; Geldpolitische Transmission; Rohstoffpreis; Spillover-Effekt; Inflation; Kointegration; Schätzung; OECD-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (26 S., 486 KB), graph. Darst.
  2. Global liquidity, world savings glut and global policy coordination
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
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    The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a transmission belt, both during the boom as during the bust. In the US, the interaction among the Fed's monetary stance, global real interest rates, distorted incentives in credit markets, and financial innovation created the mix of conditions which first drove growth, but then made the US the epicenter of the global financial crisis. Exchange rate and other economic policies followed by emerging markets such as China and the oil-exporting countries contributed to the US ability to borrow cheaply abroad and thereby finance its unsustainable housing bubble during the upswing. But we find that the key drivers of asset prices are global liquidity conditions. Central banks flooded the markets with ample liquidity. Mopping up this excess liquidity will be one major task for central banks worldwide, which needs to be done in a coordinated fashion. Moreover, our analysis has shown that liquidity will first show up in asset price inflation and only later in consumer goods inflation. This renders it difficult for central bank to exit from their current very expansive monetary policy stance if they continue to focus only on price stability. -- Asset prices ; China ; current account adjustment ; global liquidity ; oil prices ; savings glut ; monetary policy ; policy coordination

     
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    hdl: 10419/36714
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 973
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Sparen; Liquidität; Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht; Vermögen; Inflation; Finanzkrise; Welt; USA; China
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (19 S., 245 KB), graph. Darst.
  3. Financial crisis, global liquidity and monetary exit strategies
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off . Communicating about the exit strategy must... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off . Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead – perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area. -- Exit strategies ; international policy coordination and transmission ; open market operations ; unorthodox monetary policy Wir entwickeln einen Fahrplan, wie und in welchem Umfang die EZB das Geldvolumen (Geldangebot) weiter reduzieren und die Kreditlockerungsmaßnahmen zurücknehmen sollte, um einen Anstieg der Inflation zu verhindern. Diese Maßnahmen sollten nicht mit einem Schlag beendet werden, sondern der Ausstieg sollte Schritt für Schritt vollzogen werden. Die Kommunikation über die Exit Strategie muss dabei ein wesentlicher Bestandteil der Strategie sein. Die Wahrung der Preisstabilität sollte in jedem Fall Vorrang haben. Aufgrund vagabundierender globaler Liquidität wäre eine global koordinierte geldpolitische Exit Strategie angebracht. Asymmetrische Länderinteressen stellen jedoch ein unüberwindbares Problem in der praktischen Umsetzung eines koordinierten Exits dar, sodass die EZB voranschreiten sollte – eventuell mit der Unterstützung einiger Volkswirtschaften aus Fernost. Eine Koordination des geld- und fiskalpolitischen Ausstiegs würde die Unabhängigkeit der EZB untergraben und ist deswegen innerhalb des Euroraums außer Reichweite.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867882057
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    hdl: 10419/36995
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 183
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Liquidität; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Geldmenge; Inflationsbekämpfung; EU-Staaten; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S.)
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  4. How much fiscal backing must the ECB have?
    The Euro Area is not the Philippines
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations (“repo”). This has led some... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations (“repo”). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs “fiscal back-up” to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues that fiscal backing is not necessary for the ECB for three reasons. Firstly, the ECB balance sheet risk is small compared to the FED and BoE as it neither increased its quasi-fi scal operations as much as the Fed or the BoE nor did it engage to a very large extent in outright bond purchases during the financial crisis. Secondly, the ECB’s specific accounting principles of repo operations provide for more clarity and earlier recognition of losses. Thirdly, the ECB can draw on substantial reserves of the euro area national banks. -- Central bank independence ; central bank capital ; counterparty risk ; repurchase agreements ; collateral ; fiscal backing ; liquidity ; haircuts Die EZB hat seit dem Beginn der Krise immer größere Mengen an toxischen Wertpapieren als Sicherheiten akzeptiert, womit sie sich einem ernsten Kreditrisiko (d.h. Ausfallrisiko) des privaten Sektors auf ihre besicherten Darlehen und ihre Repo-Geschäfte ausgesetzt hat. Aufgrund dessen argumentieren einige Beobachter, dass die EZB ein „fiskalisches back-up“ benötigt um eventuelle Verluste abzudecken und somit weiter im Stande ist, die Wahrung der Preisstabilität zu verfolgen. In diesem Überblick wird argumentiert, dass für die EZB eine fiskalische Rückendeckung aus den drei folgenden Gründen nicht notwendig ist. Erstens ist das Risiko, das die EZB in ihren Bilanzen hält im Vergleich zur Fed oder BoE gering, da sie weder vermehrt in quasi-fiskalische Aktionen engagiert war noch kaufte sie während der Finanzkrise Bonds in großem Maße direkt auf. Zweitens schafft die EZB durch ihre spezifischen Buchführungsgrundsätze von Repo-Geschäften mehr Klarheit und eine Früherkennung von Verlusten. Drittens kann die EZB beachtliche Reserven der nationalen Zentralbanken des Euroraums in Anspruch nehmen.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867882064
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/36986
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 184
    Schlagworte: Zentralbankunabhängigkeit; Eigenkapital; Finanzkrise; Kreditsicherung; Repo-Geschäft; Bankenliquidität; Öffentliche Anleihe; Eurozone
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (17 S.)
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  5. Reinforcing EU governance in times of crisis
    the commission proposals and beyond
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal policies, but also macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are sought in the light of the shortcomings of the existing legislation. New enforcement mechanisms are foreseen for non-compliant Member States. In this very crucial and important package of 6 legislative dossiers this paper tries to identify critical missing or redundant and/or unworkable elements within the Commission package. Moreover, it checks what (if anything) is missing outside and beyond the proposals in order to make the whole package of governance reform complete and workable as, for instance, crisis resolution mechanisms and debt restructuring, EMF, project bonds and Eurobonds. -- EU governance ; European Council ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; scoreboard, Stability and Growth Pact Das am 29. September 2010 von der europäischen Kommission vorgestellte und dem Europäischen Parlament vorgelegte ausführliche Maßnahmenpaket stellt die umfassendste Verstärkung einer europäischen „Economic Governance“ seit Einführung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion dar. Angesichts der Mängel in der existierenden Gesetzgebung werden dabei eine weiter reichende und verbesserte Überwachung der Fiskalpolitiken, aber auch makroökonomischer Politiken sowie Strukturreformen angestrebt. Neue Durchsetzungsmechanismen für Mitgliedsstaaten, die gegen die Regeln handeln, sind geplant. Im Hinblick auf das sehr wichtige und entscheidende Paket der Kommission, das 6 Gesetzes-Dossiers umfasst, wird in diesem Beitrag versucht, fehlende oder überflüssige und/oder gar nicht verwendbare Elemente zu identifizieren. Weiterhin wird überprüft, was (wenn überhaupt) außerhalb und über diese Vorschläge hinaus noch fehlt, um das gesamte Paket der Governance-Reformen vollständig und durchführbar zu machen. Dies können potenziell Mechanismen zur Krisenlösung und Umschuldung, ein Europäischer Währungsfond, Projekt-Bonds und/oder Euro-Bonds sein.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867882668
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/45327
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 232
    Schlagworte: Eurozone; Governance-Ansatz; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Schuldenübernahme; Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; EU-Staaten; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 22 S., 170 KB)
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  6. The euro area crisis management framework
    consequences and institutional follow-ups
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms... mehr

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium-to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a "European semester" and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country's legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund. -- EU governance ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; Stability and Growth Pact

     
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    hdl: 10419/49447
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1076
    Schlagworte: Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; Eurozone; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Internationale Finanzhilfe; Schuldenübernahme; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 17 S., 135 KB)
  7. Reinforcing EU governance in times of crisis
    the commission proposals and beyond
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (1082)
    Fernleihe:
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    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal policies, but also macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are sought in the light of the shortcomings of the existing legislation. New enforcement mechanisms are foreseen for non-compliant Member States. In this very crucial and important package of 6 legislative dossiers this paper paper tries to identify critical missing or redundant and/or unworkable elements within the Commission package. Moreover it checks what (if anything) is missing outside and beyond the proposals in order to make the whole package of governance reform complete and workable as, for instance, crisis resolution mechanisms and debt restructuring, EMF, project bonds and Eurobonds. -- EU governance ; European Council ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; scoreboard ; Stability and Growth Pact

     
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    hdl: 10419/49411
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1082
    Schlagworte: Eurozone; Governance-Ansatz; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Schuldenübernahme; Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S., 187 KB)
  8. Driven by the markets?
    ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities market programme
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an "orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism". Many observers argued that, by bond... mehr

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    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an "orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism". Many observers argued that, by bond purchases, national fiscal policies could from now on dominate the common monetary policy. This note argues that they are quite right. The ECB has indeed become more dependent in political and financial terms. The ECB has decided to sterilise its bond purchases - compensating those purchases through sales of other bonds or money market instruments to keep the overall money supply unaffected. This is to counter accusations that the ECB is monetizing government debt. This note addresses how effective these sterilisation policies are. One problem inherent in the sterilization approach is that it reshuffles only the liability side of the ECB's balance sheet. It is not well-suited to either diminish the bloated ECB balance sheet or to remove the potentially toxic covered or sovereign bonds from it. In addition, the intake of potentially toxic assets as collateral and by outright purchases in the central bank balance sheet artificially keeps the asset prices up and does not prevent the (quite intransparent) risk transfer from one group of countries to another to occur. Finally, sterilization takes place in a setting of still ultra-lax monetary policies, i.e. of new liquidity-enhancing operations with unlimited allotment, and, hence, does not appear to be overly irrelevant. A credible strategy to deal with the financial crisis should deal primarily with the asset side of the ECB balance sheet. [...] -- Accountability ; bail-out ; bond purchases ; central bank independence ; insolvency risk ; Securities Markets Programme ; transparency

     
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    hdl: 10419/49436
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1040
    Schlagworte: Schuldenübernahme; Öffentliche Anleihe; Staatsbankrott; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Zentralbankunabhängigkeit; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 15 S., 139 KB)
  9. (How) do the ECB and the fed react to financial market uncertainty?
    the Taylor rule in times of crisis
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in... mehr

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    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate spreads and asset price infl ation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also likely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis. Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth, consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88238
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-01
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (30 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity prices and goods prices movements. The cointegrated VAR model fits with the data for the analyzed period from the 1970s until 2008 very well. Our empirical results appear to be overall robust since they pass inter alia a series of recursive tests and are stable for varying compositions of the commodity indices. The empirical evidence is in line with theoretical considerations. The inclusion of commodity prices helps to identify a significant monetary transmission process from global liquidity to other macro variables such as goods prices. We find further support of the conjecture that monetary aggregates convey useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this clear empirical pattern it appears justified to argue that global liquidity merits attention in the same way as the worldwide level of interest rates received in the recent debate about the world savings and liquidity glut as one of the main drivers of the current financial crisis, if not possibly more.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88228
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-02
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.), graph. Darst.
  11. Is euro area demand (still) stable?
    cointegrated VAR versus single equation techniques
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Czudaj, Robert
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability... mehr

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    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FMOLS, CCR and DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-03
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  12. European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme... mehr

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    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank presidents, i.e. their desired interest rates. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we do not simulate an average of the decisions but look at every relevant point in time separately.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88224
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-04
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  13. Financial crisis, global liquidity and monetary exit strategies
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-bystep rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be... mehr

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    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-bystep rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead – perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88231
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-06
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S.)
  14. How much fiscal backing must the ECB have?
    the euro area is not the Philippines
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some... mehr

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    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs "fiscal back-up" to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues that fiscal backing is not necessary for the ECB for three reasons. Firstly, the ECB balance sheet risk is small compared to the FED and BoE as it neither increased its quasi-fiscal operations as much as the Fed or the BoE nor did it engage to a very large extent in outright bond purchases during the financial crisis. Secondly, the ECB's specific accounting principles of repo operations provide for more clarity and earlier recognition of losses. Thirdly, the ECB can draw on substantial reserves of the euro area national banks.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-07
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (16 S.)
  15. Driven by the markets?
    ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond... mehr

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    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond purchases, national fiscal policies could from now on dominate the common monetary policy. This note argues that they are quite right. The ECB has indeed become more dependent in political and financial terms. The ECB has decided to sterilise its bond purchases - compensating those purchases through sales of other bonds or money market instruments to keep to overall money supply unaffectted. This is to counter accusations that the ECB is monetizing government debt. This note addresses how effective these sterilisation policies are. One problem inherent in the sterilization approach is that it reshuffles only the liability side of the ECB’s balance sheet. It is not well-suited to either diminish the bloated ECB balance sheet or to remove the potentially toxic covered or sovereign bonds from it. In addition, the intake of potentially toxic assets as collateral and by outright purchases in the central bank balance sheet artificially keeps the asset prices up and does not prevent the (quite intransparent) risk transfer from one group of countries to another to occur. Finally, sterilization takes place in a setting of still ultra-lax monetary policies, i.e. liquidity-enhancing operations with unlimited allotment, and, hence, appears to be irrelevant. A credible strategy to deal with the financial crisis should deal primarily with the asset side of the ECB balance sheet ...

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-10
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  16. The euro area crisis management framework
    consequences and institutional follow-ups
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms... mehr

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    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium- to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a “European semester” and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country’s legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-12
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (17 S.)
  17. Reinforcing EU governance in times of crisis
    the commission proposals and beyond
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal... mehr

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    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal policies, but also macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are sought in the light of the shortcomings of the existing legislation. New enforcement mechanisms are foreseen for non-compliant Member States. In this very crucial and important package of 6 legislative dossiers this paper paper tries to identify critical missing or redundant and/or unworkable elements within the Commission package. Moreover it checks what (if anything) is missing outside and beyond the proposals in order to make the whole package of governance reform complete and workable as, for instance, crisis resolution mechanisms and debt restructuring, EMF, project bonds and Eurobonds.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-14
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (19 S.)
  18. European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme... mehr

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    We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank presidents, i.e. their desired interest rates. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we do not simulate an average of the decisions but look at every relevant point in time separately. -- Euro area ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy ; rotation ; voting rights

     
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    hdl: 10419/36708
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 983
    Schlagworte: Zentralbank; Abstimmungsregel; Reform; Abstimmung; Abstimmungsspiel; Eurozone; Theorie
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  19. Global integration of central and Eastern European financial markets
    the role of economic sentiments
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Beckmann, Joscha; Kühl, Michael
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the... mehr

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    This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs'; financial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly-regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase in the dependence of the CEECs'; domestic market performance on global sentiments, we also investigate the relationship between global economic sentiments and domestic income and share prices. Finally, we test whether the impact of global sentiments and stock prices on domestic variables increases proportionally with the degree of integration. We also account for eff ects stemming from global income. For these purposes, we apply a restricted cointegrating VAR (CVAR) framework based upon a restricted autoregressive model which allows us to distinguish between the long-run and the short-run dynamics. For the long run we find evidence supporting relationships between sentiments, income and share prices in the case of the Czech Republic. Our results for the short run suggest that economic sentiments in general are influenced by share prices but also off er some predictive power with respect to the latter. What is more, European sentiments play an important role in particular for the CEECs'; share prices and income. The significance of this link increases with economic integration. -- Cointegration ; European integration ; financial markets ; restricted autoregressive model ; sentiments Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von wirtschaftlichen Stimmungen bei der Transformation der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder, z.B. im Hinblick auf die Finanzmärkte, sowie den Zusammenhang zwischen globalen wirtschaftlichen Stimmungen, Einkommen und Aktienkursen. Das zentrale Ergebnis: Stimmungen haben einen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung der Aktienkurse und des Einkommens in Mittel- und Osteuropa. Hinsichtlich der Aktienkurse nimmt der Einfluss der globalen Sentiments mit fortschreitender Integration sogar teils zu. Auch der Einfluss des globalen Einkommens steigt. Insgesamt deuten die Ergebnisse sowohl auf einen realen Konvergenzprozess als auch auf eine Integration der osteuropäischen Finanzmärkte in die globalen Märkte hin. Es kann außerdem gefolgert werden, dass Marktstimmungen bis zu einem gewissen Maß Einkommensprognosen erlauben.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867881951
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    hdl: 10419/36998
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 174
    Schlagworte: Finanzmarkt; Marktintegration; Europäische Integration; Verbrauchervertrauensindex; Frühindikator; Börsenkurs; Nationaleinkommen; Kointegration; Schätzung; EU-Mitgliedschaft; Tschechien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (37 S.)
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  20. European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank presidents, i.e. their desired interest rates. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we do not simulate an average of the decisions but look at every relevant point in time separately. -- Euro area ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy ; rotation ; voting rights In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das Abstimmungsverhalten der Mitglieder des zentralen Entscheidungsorgans der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), des EZB-Rats analysiert. Eine Reform der Abstimmungsmodalitäten träger der kommenden Erweiterung der Eurozone Rechnung. Zentraler Bestandteil dieser Reform ist die Rotation der Stimmrechte innerhalb von vorab definierten Gruppen. Bisher wurde das so genannte Rotationsmodell in der Literatur ohne die Berücksichtigung wichtiger Eigenschaften der Abstimmungsmodalitäten diskutiert. Mit Hilfe einer spieltheoretischen Machtindexanalyse können mehrere dieser Aspekte in dieser Arbeit mit einbezogen werden. Hierbei handelt es sich erstens um die Berücksichtigung der Präferenzen der Mitglieder des Gremiums. Zweitens wird die Tatsache beachtet, dass der Präsident der EZB als primus inter pares den Abstimmungsinhalt der Treffen festlegen kann, also über die so genannte agenda-setting power verfügt. Schliesslich nimmt unsere Analyse von den bisherigen durchschnittlichen Betrachtungen Abstand und misst die Verteilung der Macht in mehreren vorstellbaren Zeitpunkten.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867881968
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    hdl: 10419/37010
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 175
    Schlagworte: Zentralbank; Abstimmungsregel; Reform; Abstimmung; Abstimmungsspiel; Eurozone; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (42 S.), graph. Darst.
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  21. Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area
    Autor*in: Zemanek, Holger; Belke, Ansgar; Schnabl, Gunther
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times... mehr

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    In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe. -- Structural reforms ; current account balances ; euro area ; dynamic panel estimation ; interaction term In den vergangenen Jahren haben einige Staaten der EWU, besonders Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal, hohe Leistungsbilanzdefizite aufgebaut. Die Finanzmarktkrise führte zwar zu einer Entspannung, jedoch ist eine deutliche Reduzierung der Defizite nicht in Sicht. Insbesondere durch die Griechenland-Krise haben die Leistungsbilanzdefizite einen hohen Stellenwert auf der wirtschaftspolitischen Agenda der EU eingenommen. Das Papier untersucht, inwieweit private Restrukturierungsmaßnahmen der Privatwirtschaft und/oder Strukturreformen zu einer notwendigen und nachhaltigen Korrektur der Leistungsbilanzdefizite in der EWU beitragen können. Eine umfassende empirische Analyse zeigt die herausragende Bedeutung von Strukturreformen für die Anpassung der Leistungsbilanzen innerhalb der EWU. Der Effekt von Arbeitsmarktreformen ist besonders ausgeprägt. Dies unterstützt die Forderung nach umfassenden und nachhaltigen Strukturreformen in der EWU, besonders in den Ländern mit hohen Leistungsbilanzdefiziten. Dies würde die derzeitigen ökonomischen Spannungen in der EWU reduzieren und die Stabilität der EWU sowie des Euros erhöhen.

     
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    ISBN: 9783867881975
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    hdl: 10419/37004
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 176
    Schlagworte: Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht; Eurozone; Internationaler Wettbewerb; Wirtschaftsreform; Sozialreform; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressorce (49 S.), graph. Darst.
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  22. Is euro area money demand (still) stable?
    cointegrated VAR versus single equation techniques
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Czudaj, Robert
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability... mehr

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    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FMOLS, CCR and DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies. -- ARDL model ; cointegration ; euro area ; financial crisis ; money demand

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 982
    Schlagworte: Geldnachfrage; Eurozone; Finanzkrise; Kointegration; Schätzung; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (40 S., 1.07 MB), graph. Darst.
  23. Driven by the markets?
    ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds – to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond... mehr

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    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds – to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond purchases, national fiscal policies could from now on dominate the common monetary policy. This note argues that they are quite right. The ECB has indeed become more dependent in political and financial terms. The ECB has decided to sterilise its bond purchases – compensating those purchases through sales of other bonds or money market instruments to keep the overall money supply unaffected. This is to counter accusations that the ECB is monetizing government debt. This note addresses how effective these sterilisation policies are. -- Accountability ; bail-out ; bond purchases ; central bank independence ; insolvency risk ; Securities Markets Programme ; transparency Nach dem riesigen Hilfspaket für den Euroraum hat der Rat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) beschlossen, Staatsanleihen europäischer Länder anzukaufen – um einen „geregelten geldpolitischen Transmissionsmechanismus“ zu garantieren. Viele Analysten äußern Bedenken, dass durch die Anleihenkäufe von nun an die Geldpolitik von den nationalen Fiskalpolitiken dominiert wird. In diesem Beitrag wird argumentiert, dass die Kritiker richtig liegen. Die EZB ist tatsächlich unter politischen und finanziellen Aspekten abhängiger geworden. Die EZB hat beschlossen, ihre Anleihenkäufe zu sterilisieren – diese Geschäfte werden durch Verkäufe anderer Anleihen oder Geldmarktinstrumente kompensiert, um das Gesamtgeldangebot konstant zu halten. Damit soll den Anschuldigungen entgegen getreten werden, die EZB monetisiere Staatsschulden. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, wie effektiv diese Sterilisationspolitiken sind.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867882194
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/45333
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 194
    Schlagworte: Schuldenübernahme; Öffentliche Anleihe; Staatsbankrott; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Zentralbankunabhängigkeit; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 15 S., 156 KB)
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  24. The euro area crisis management framework
    consequences and institutional follow-ups
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium- to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a “European semester” and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country’s legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund. -- EU governance ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; Stability and Growth Pact

     
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    ISBN: 9783867882361
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/45332
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 207
    Schlagworte: Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; Eurozone; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Internationale Finanzhilfe; Schuldenübernahme; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 20 S., 264 KB)
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  25. Energy consumption and economic growth
    new insights into the cointegration relationship
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Haan, Frauke de
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long-run relationship. Indeed, cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy consumption is price-inelastic. Causality tests indicate the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. -- Energy consumption ; panel unit roots ; panel cointegration ; vector error-correction models ; Granger causality

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/36712
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1017
    Schlagworte: Energiekonsum; Wirtschaftswachstum; Kointegration; Kausalanalyse; Energiepreis; Preiselastizität; Schätzung; OECD-Staaten
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