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  1. "Generalized measures of correlation for asymmetry, nonlinearity, and beyond"
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    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/110017
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2018, 33
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 8 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises
    Erschienen: January 2016
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/79730
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2016-01
    Schlagworte: Anlageverhalten; Ankündigungseffekt; Volatilität; Börsenkurs; Schock; Finanzkrise; Bayes-Statistik; Heuristik
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  3. A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises
    Erschienen: January, 2016
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam

    In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the... mehr

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    In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to take care of symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and subsequent recovery.

     

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    hdl: 10419/130493
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2016-003
    Schlagworte: Anlageverhalten; Ankündigungseffekt; Volatilität; Börsenkurs; Schock; Finanzkrise; Bayes-Statistik; Heuristik
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  4. A Tourism Conditions Index
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Inst., Rotterdam [u.a.]

    This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the... mehr

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    DS 432 (2014,7)
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    This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators to predict specific tourism and economic environmental indicators for Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the Composite Index (CI), an economic environmental indicator, than the Tourism Industry Index (TII), which is an existing indicator for the tourism industry that is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Moreover, previous values of the alternative TCI and TII are shown to contain useful information in predicting both tourism and economic environmental factors. Overall, the new Tourism Conditions Index is straightforward to use and also provides useful insights in predicting tourism arrivals and the current economic environment.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/89249
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2014,007
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (30 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot and futures prices
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

    This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating... mehr

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    This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating food prices. We analyse approximately 10 years of daily spot and futures prices for corn, wheat, sugar ethanol and oil prices from Datastream for the period 19 July 2006 to 2 July 2015. The analysis, featuring Engle-Granger pairwise cointegration and Markov-switching VECM and Impulse Response Analysis, confirms that these markets have significant linkages which vary according to whether they are in low or high volatility regimes.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/145345
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2016-038
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. A cointegration analysis of agricultural, energy and bio-fuel spot and futures prices
    Erschienen: [2016]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    VS 57 (2016,24)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/93112
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2016-24
    Schlagworte: Agrarpreis; Getreidepreis; Zucker; Biokraftstoff; Futures; Spotmarkt; Kointegration; Zeitreihenanalyse
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk
    Erschienen: 2008
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

    Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to... mehr

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    VS 57 (2008.34)
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    Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realized losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we propose a learning strategy that complements existing methods for calculating VaR and lowers daily capital requirements, while restricting the number of endogenous violations within the Basel II Accord penalty limits. We suggest a decision rule that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard amp; Poor's 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits

     

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    hdl: 1765/13986
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2008,34
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. A fractionally integrated wishart stochastic volatility model
    Erschienen: 2013

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    hdl: 10419/87261
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2013,025
    Schlagworte: Stochastischer Prozess; Volatilität; Momentenmethode; Theorie; Wishart stochastic volatility
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (29 S.)
  9. A generalized Email classification system for workflow analysis
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

    One of the most powerful internet communication channels is email. As employees and their clients communicate primarily via email, much crucial business data is conveyed via email content. Where businesses are understandably concerned, they need a... mehr

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    One of the most powerful internet communication channels is email. As employees and their clients communicate primarily via email, much crucial business data is conveyed via email content. Where businesses are understandably concerned, they need a sophisticated workflow management system to manage their transactions. A workflow management system should also be able to classify any incoming emails into suitable categories. Previous research has implemented a system to categorize emails based on the words found in email messages. Two parameters affected the accuracy of the program, namely the number of words in a database compared with sample emails, and an acceptable percentage for classifying emails. As the volume of email has become larger and more sophisticated, this research classifies email messages into a larger number of categories and changes a parameter that affects the accuracy of the program. The first parameter, namely the number of words in a database compared with sample emails, remains unchanged, while the second parameter is changed from an acceptable percentage to the number of matching words. The empirical results suggest that the number of words in a database compared with sample emails is 11, and the number of matching words to categorize emails is 7. When these settings are applied to categorize 12,465 emails, the accuracy of this experiment is approximately 65.3%. The optimal number of words that yields high accuracy levels lies between 11 and 13, while the number of matching words lies between 6 and 8.

     

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    hdl: 10419/177634
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: revised July 2017
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2017, 066
    Schlagworte: E-Mail; Wirtschaftsdaten; Workflow-Management-System
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A generalized email classification system for workflow analysis
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/101762
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised: July 2017
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2017, 21
    Schlagworte: E-Mail; Wirtschaftsdaten; Workflow-Management-System
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. A multi-criteria financial and energy portfolio analysis of hedge fund strategies
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/109055
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2018, 26
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. A multi-criteria portfolio analysis of hedge fund strategies
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

    This paper features a tri-criteria analysis of Eurekahedge fund data strategy index data. We use nine Eurekahedge equally weighted main strategy indices for the portfolio analysis. The tri-criteria analysis features three objectives: return, risk and... mehr

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    DS 432 (2017,13)
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    This paper features a tri-criteria analysis of Eurekahedge fund data strategy index data. We use nine Eurekahedge equally weighted main strategy indices for the portfolio analysis. The tri-criteria analysis features three objectives: return, risk and dispersion of risk objectives in a Multi-Criteria Optimisation (MCO) portfolio analysis. We vary the MCO return and risk targets and contrast the results with four more standard portfolio optimisation criteria, namely the tangency portfolio(MSR), the most diversified portfolio (MDP), the global minimum variance portfolio (GMW), and portfolios based on minimising expected shortfall (ERC). Backtests of the chosen portfolios for this hedge fund data set indicate that the use of MCO is accompanied by uncertainty about the a priori choice of optimal parameter settings for the decision criteria. The empirical results do not appear to outperform more standard bi-criteria portfolio analyses in the backtests undertaken on our hedge fund index data.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162279
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2017, 013
    Schlagworte: Portfolio-Management; Multikriterielle Entscheidungsanalyse; Hedgefonds; Evolutionärer Algorithmus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. A multi-criteria portfolio analysis of hedge fund strategies
    Erschienen: [2016]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/98658
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2016, 46
    Schlagworte: Portfolio-Management; Multikriterielle Entscheidungsanalyse; Hedgefonds; Evolutionärer Algorithmus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. A multivariate asymmetric long memory conditional volatility model with X, regularity and asymptotics
    Erschienen: August 2016
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

    The paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This... mehr

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    The paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. The underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, which has well established regularity conditions and associated asymptotic properties, is discussed, and a simple explanation is given as to why only the diagonal BEKK model, and not the Hadamard, triangular or full BEKK models, has regularity conditions and asymptotic properties. Various special cases, including the diagonal BEKK model of Baba et al. (1985) and Engle and Kroner (1995), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), and VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2009), are discussed. There does not seem to have been a derivation of a univariate conditional volatility model with exogenous variables (X) that has dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. Therefore, the derivation of a multivariate conditional volatility model with exogenous variables (X) that has regularity conditions and asymptotic theory would seem to be a significant extension of the existing literature.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/149469
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2016-065
    Schlagworte: Multivariate Analyse; VAR-Modell; ARMA-Modell; ARCH-Modell; Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten)
  15. A multivariate asymmetric long memory conditional volatility model with x, regularity and asymptotics
    Erschienen: August 2016
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/93333
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2016-34
    Schlagworte: Multivariate Analyse; VAR-Modell; ARMA-Modell; ARCH-Modell; Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 13 Seiten)
  16. A new inequality measure that is sensitive to extreme values and asymmetries
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics], [Rotterdam]

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    VS 57 (2017,28)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/102548
    Schriftenreihe: [Econometric Institute research papers] ; EI2017, 28
    Schlagworte: Einkommensverteilung; Index; Messung; Gini-Koeffizient; Lorenz-Kurve; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. A new inequality measure that is sensitive to extreme values and asymmetries
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam

    There is a vast literature on the selection of an appropriate index of income inequality and on what desirable properties such a measure (or index) should contain. The Gini index is, of course, the most popular. There is a concurrent literature on... mehr

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    There is a vast literature on the selection of an appropriate index of income inequality and on what desirable properties such a measure (or index) should contain. The Gini index is, of course, the most popular. There is a concurrent literature on the use of hypothetical statistical distributions to approximate and describe an observed distribution of incomes. Pareto and others observed early on that incomes tend to be heavily right-tailed in their distribution. These asymmetries led to approximating the observed income distributions with extreme value hypothetical statistical distributions, such as the Pareto distribution. But these income distribution functions (IDFs) continue to be described with a single index (such as the Gini) that poorly detect the extreme values present in the underlying empirical IDF. This paper introduces a new inequality measure to supplement, but not to replace, the Gini that measures more accurately the inherent asymmetries and extreme values that are present in observed income distributions. The new measure is based on a third-order term of a Legendre polynomial from the logarithm of a share function (or Lorenz curve). We advocate using the two measures together to provide a better description of inequality inherent in empirical income distributions with extreme values.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/177670
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2017, 102
    Schlagworte: Einkommensverteilung; Index; Messung; Gini-Koeffizient; Lorenz-Kurve; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. A one line derivation of DCC
    application of a vector random coefficient moving average process
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Dept. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, N.Z

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2014,19
    Schlagworte: Korrelation; Varianzanalyse; Stochastischer Prozess; Zeitreihenanalyse
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
  19. A one line derivation of DCC
    application of a vector random coefficient moving average process
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Inst., Rotterdam [u.a.]

    One of the most widely-used multivariate conditional volatility models is the dynamic conditional correlation (or DCC) specification. However, the underlying stochastic process to derive DCC has not yet been established, which has made problematic... mehr

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    DS 432 (2014,87)
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    One of the most widely-used multivariate conditional volatility models is the dynamic conditional correlation (or DCC) specification. However, the underlying stochastic process to derive DCC has not yet been established, which has made problematic the derivation of asymptotic properties of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators (QMLE). To date, the statistical properties of the QMLE of the DCC parameters have been derived under highly restrictive and unverifiable regularity conditions. The paper shows that the DCC model can be obtained from a vector random coefficient moving average process, and derives the stationarity and invertibility conditions. The derivation of DCC from a vector random coefficient moving average process raises three important issues: (i) demonstrates that DCC is, in fact, a dynamic conditional covariance model of the returns shocks rather than a dynamic conditional correlation model; (ii) provides the motivation, which is presently missing, for standardization of the conditional covariance model to obtain the conditional correlation model; and (iii) shows that the appropriate ARCH or GARCH model for DCC is based on the standardized shocks rather than the returns shocks. The derivation of the regularity conditions should subsequently lead to a solid statistical foundation for the estimates of the DCC parameters.

     

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    hdl: 10419/107800
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Revised: July 2014
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2014-087
    Schlagworte: Korrelation; Varianzanalyse; Stochastischer Prozess; Zeitreihenanalyse
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
  20. A one line derivation of EGARCH
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Dept. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, N.Z

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2014,16
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Schätzung; Kapitalmarktrendite; Börsenkurs; Volatilität; Stochastischer Prozess
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (8 S.)
  21. A one line derivation of EGARCH
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/51742
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2014-20
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Schätzung; Kapitalmarktrendite; Börsenkurs; Volatilität; Stochastischer Prozess
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (8 S.)
  22. A one line derivation of EGARCH
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Inst., Rotterdam [u.a.]

    One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects... mehr

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    One of the most popular univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models is the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification. In addition to asymmetry, which captures the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, EGARCH can also accommodate leverage, which is the negative correlation between returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility. However, there are as yet no statistical properties available for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator of the EGARCH parameters. It is often argued heuristically that the reason for the lack of statistical properties arises from the presence in the model of an absolute value of a function of the parameters, which does not permit analytical derivatives or the derivation of statistical properties. It is shown in this paper that: (i) the EGARCH model can be derived from a random coefficient complex nonlinear moving average (RCCNMA) process; and (ii) the reason for the lack of statistical properties of the estimators of EGARCH is that the stationarity and invertibility conditions for the RCCNMA process are not known.

     

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2014-069
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Schätzung; Kapitalmarktrendite; Börsenkurs; Volatilität; Stochastischer Prozess
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  23. A panel threshold model of tourism specialization and economic development
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

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    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2009,40
    Schlagworte: Internationaler Tourismus; Standortwettbewerb; Wirtschaftswachstum; Schätzung; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 43 S.), graph. Darst.
  24. A simple expected volatility (SEV) index
    application to SET50 index options
    Erschienen: 2008
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

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    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2008,35
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  25. A simple expected volatility (SEV) index
    application to SET50 Index Options
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,15
    Schlagworte: Optionsgeschäft; Volatilität; Prognoseverfahren; Modellierung; Zeitreihenanalyse; Schätzung; Thailand
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