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  1. Fiscal policies for achieving Finland's emission neutrality target
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Finland has pledged to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2035 and has sectoral targets for deploying electric vehicles, phasing out coal generation, and oil-based space heating. Fiscal policies at the national and sectoral level could play... mehr

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    Finland has pledged to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2035 and has sectoral targets for deploying electric vehicles, phasing out coal generation, and oil-based space heating. Fiscal policies at the national and sectoral level could play a critical role in achieving these objectives. Carbon dioxide emissions are already priced significantly in Finland but prices vary substantially across fuels and sectors. The paper discusses a reform to both scale up, and progressively harmonize, pricing while using revenues to address equity issues. It also discusses the potential use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives for the transportation, industry, building, forestry, and agricultural sectors

     

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  2. Intergovernmental fiscal reform in China
    Erschienen: April 2018
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    China is the most decentralized country in the world in terms of expenditures shares, with subnational governments responsible for 85 percent of government spending. Limited revenue autonomy and insufficient intergovernmental transfers have led to... mehr

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    China is the most decentralized country in the world in terms of expenditures shares, with subnational governments responsible for 85 percent of government spending. Limited revenue autonomy and insufficient intergovernmental transfers have led to large unfunded mandates and a build-up of debt outside the budget. The government has recently announced an ambitious intergovernmental fiscal reform, which will increase the role of the central government. Comprehensive reform is needed to improve public service delivery, increase overall social spending levels and reduce regional disparities. Revenue reforms are also necessary to improve efficiency and reduce vulnerabilities from excessive subnational borrowing. These reforms are challenging, but are crucial so that the government can support China's continued development and prosperity

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781484351109
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 88
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Bunching at 3 percent
    the Maastricht fiscal criterion and government deficits
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty's fiscal criterion on EU countries' general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent deficit rule acts as a 'magnet',... mehr

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    This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty's fiscal criterion on EU countries' general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent deficit rule acts as a 'magnet', increasing the number of observations around the threshold, while reducing the occurrence of both large government deficits and surpluses. After the rule is adopted, the distribution of government deficits among EU countries displays 20 percent excess mass around the deficit ceiling compared to a counterfactual distribution in which countries have the same observable characteristics but without the fiscal rule. Most of the bunching response comes from a reduction in the number of high deficit observations. We also find that the average treatment effect on fiscal deficits is positive and statistically significant. Finally, we derive country-specific impacts under a rank invariance assumption and find that all EU countries have seen their fiscal position improve on average as a result of the deficit rule

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781484371732
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 182
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Inequality in China
    trends, drivers and policy remedies
    Erschienen: June 2018
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s and rendered China among the most unequal countries in the world. This... mehr

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    China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s and rendered China among the most unequal countries in the world. This trend has started to reverse as China has experienced a modest decline in inequality since 2008. This paper identifies various drivers behind these trends - including structural changes such as urbanization and aging and, more recently, policy initiatives to combat it. It finds that policies will need to play an important role in curbing inequality in the future, as projected structural trends will put further strain on equity considerations. In particular, fiscal policy reforms have the potential to enhance inclusiveness and equity, both on the tax and expenditure side

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781484357538
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 127
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Global value chains and productivity
    micro evidence from Estonia
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513542300
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 117
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Revisiting carbon leakage
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations... mehr

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    This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations along two lines. First, we exploit recently published data on sector-country-specific changes in energy prices to identify changes in domestic carbon emissions and other flows (rather than the historically limited variation in carbon prices or adherence to international climate agreements). Second, we present a simple accounting framework to derive carbon leakage rates from reduced-form regressions in contrast to existing papers, thereby making our results directly comparable to model-based estimates of carbon leakage. We show that carbon leakage rates differ across countries and could be larger than what existing estimates suggest

     

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    ISBN: 9781513593029
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 207
    Schlagworte: carbon leakage; CO2 content of trade; emission spillovers; competitiveness; Climate; Environment and Development; Global Warming; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Trade and Environment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Sectoral shocks and spillovers
    an application to COVID-19
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from... mehr

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    This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks-measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level-have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector's share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513587394
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 204
    Schlagworte: Production networks; input-output tables; sectoral shocks; spillovers; COVID-19; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Externalities; General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. After-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
    prospects for medium-term economic damage
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities-typically associated with worse scarring-have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513587905
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 203
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; scarring; medium-term output; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Economic History; Growth and Fluctuations; Measurement of Economic Growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. How to apply excise taxes to fight obesity
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, DC, U.S.A.

    Fighting the obesity epidemic has so far proven a difficult challenge, given the diversity of natural and processed foods, the complexity of food supply chains, and the fact that targeting excessive caloric consumption is far trickier than reducing... mehr

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    Fighting the obesity epidemic has so far proven a difficult challenge, given the diversity of natural and processed foods, the complexity of food supply chains, and the fact that targeting excessive caloric consumption is far trickier than reducing overall consumption (as for tobacco). Nevertheless, efforts to curb caloric intake are gearing up and the experience from tobacco control has drawn much attention on a potential role for excise taxes in fighting obesity. Many related questions have therefore been raised as part of the IMF's capacity development work: Should excises on unhealthy food be used to fight obesity? If so, under what conditions? What are the product and market characteristics that would help identify the relevant tax bases and the rates at which to tax them? While acknowledging that the scientific evidence keeps evolving, this note summarizes the ongoing debate and practice on food excises and on their potential role as a policy tool to fight the obesity epidemic, with a view to assist policymakers in deciding whether to go forward, and if so, how. How to Apply Excise Taxes to Fight Obesity

     

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    ISBN: 9781557756466; 9781557756749
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    Schriftenreihe: How to notes ; note 21, 08
    Schlagworte: health, obesity, excise taxes; obesity epidemic; publication order; excise taxes to fight obesity; publication service; food excise taxes; Excises; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Value-added tax; Africa; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Fiscal policies for achieving Finland's emission neutrality target
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Finland has pledged to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2035 and has sectoral targets for deploying electric vehicles, phasing out coal generation, and oil-based space heating. Fiscal policies at the national and sectoral level could play... mehr

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    Finland has pledged to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2035 and has sectoral targets for deploying electric vehicles, phasing out coal generation, and oil-based space heating. Fiscal policies at the national and sectoral level could play a critical role in achieving these objectives. Carbon dioxide emissions are already priced significantly in Finland but prices vary substantially across fuels and sectors. The paper discusses a reform to both scale up, and progressively harmonize, pricing while using revenues to address equity issues. It also discusses the potential use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives for the transportation, industry, building, forestry, and agricultural sectors

     

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    ISBN: 9781513585543
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 171
    Schlagworte: Climate change; Finland climate mitigation; carbon pricing; feebate; revenue recycling; border carbon adjustment; transportation; forestry; Climate; Energy; Informal Economy; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. China
    how can revenue reforms contribute to inclusive and sustainable growth?
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C

    Revenue reforms can contribute to more inclusive, green, and sustainable growth in China. Relative to OECD economies, fiscal policy in China is less redistributive. Options for promoting more inclusive growth include improving the progressivity of... mehr

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    Revenue reforms can contribute to more inclusive, green, and sustainable growth in China. Relative to OECD economies, fiscal policy in China is less redistributive. Options for promoting more inclusive growth include improving the progressivity of labor taxes (individual income tax and social security contributions), introducing a recurrent property tax, and finishing the transition to a comprehensive value-added tax. Higher environmental taxes, meanwhile, would promote more environment-friendly economy. These reforms could also significantly boost revenue, potentially by as much as 6 1\2 percent of GDP. Such increases in revenue could help reduce the deficit, finance priority social and infrastructure spending, and offset cuts in other taxes. We illustrate how these revenue reforms could be part of a comprehensive fiscal package that achieves the needed consolidation in the (augmented) deficit and foster higher quality growth

     

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    ISBN: 9781475531138; 1475599013; 9781475599015
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; 15/66
    Schlagworte: Finanzpolitik; Steuerreform; Öffentliche Schulden; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; China
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (31 S.), graph. Darst.
  12. Are elasticities of taxable income rising?
    Erschienen: June 2018
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses a possible explanation for the global downward trend in top personal income tax rates over the last decades: globalization and the related tax evasion and avoidance opportunities could have raised elasticities of taxable income,... mehr

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    This paper assesses a possible explanation for the global downward trend in top personal income tax rates over the last decades: globalization and the related tax evasion and avoidance opportunities could have raised elasticities of taxable income, which would imply lower optimal tax rates. The paper estimates elasticities of taxable income for top income earners using a large sample of economies and years with a common method, allowing an analysis of trends in such elasticities. The paper finds that elasticities do not appear to exhibit any clear pattern over the years. The downward trend in tax rates must have other possible explanations, which are briefly discussed

     

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    ISBN: 9781484361566
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 132
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Climate mitigation policy in Denmark
    a prototype for other countries
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

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    ISBN: 9781513560960
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 235
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. EU climate mitigation policy

    This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the choice of policies to reach the more ambitious 2030 emission reduction goals currently under consideration. It provides an analysis of the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of different... mehr

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    This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the choice of policies to reach the more ambitious 2030 emission reduction goals currently under consideration. It provides an analysis of the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of different options to scale up the mitigation effort, and proposes enhancements to the existing EU policies. A key finding is that a well-designed package, consisting of more extensive carbon pricing across EU countries and sectors, combined with cuts in distortionary taxes and targeted green investment support, would allow the EU to reach the emission goals with practically no effects on aggregate income. To enhance the social and political acceptance of climate policies, part of the revenue from carbon pricing should be used to compensate the most vulnerable households and to support the transition of workers to greener jobs. A carbon border adjustment mechanism could complement the package to avoid an increase in emissions outside the EU due to higher carbon prices in the EU ('carbon leakage'). From a risk-reward perspective, the benefits of reducing the risk of extreme life-threatening climate events and the health benefits from lower air pollution clearly outweigh the costs of mitigation policies

     

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    ISBN: 9781513552569
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    Schriftenreihe: Departmental paper series ; no. 20, 13
    Schlagworte: Internationale Klimapolitik; EU-Umweltpolitik; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Individual treatment effects of budget balance rules
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences... mehr

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    This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Method. Our results indicate that countries with a budget balance rule improve their fiscal balance on average by around 3 percent after its introduction. However, our results also illustrate the importance of going beyond the average treatment effect, as it masks significant heterogeneity in the country-specific impact of the rule. We find that countries that would have had large deficits in the absence of the fiscal rule exhibit positive treatment effects, thus reducing their budget deficits. On the other hand, countries with budget surpluses respond to fiscal rules by reducing their budget surplus and moving closer to the numerical target of the rule. Our results also suggest that rules' design matters: a small overall number of fiscal rules, and the presence of a monitoring process outside the government, especially at the supra-national level, improve significantly the effectiveness of the rules

     

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    ISBN: 9781513563855
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 274
    Schlagworte: fiscal rules; fiscal policy; heterogeneous treatment effects; synthetic control; difference-indifferences
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. After-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
    prospects for medium-term economic damage
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities-typically associated with worse scarring-have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies

     

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  17. How to apply excise taxes to fight obesity
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, DC, U.S.A.

    Fighting the obesity epidemic has so far proven a difficult challenge, given the diversity of natural and processed foods, the complexity of food supply chains, and the fact that targeting excessive caloric consumption is far trickier than reducing... mehr

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    Fighting the obesity epidemic has so far proven a difficult challenge, given the diversity of natural and processed foods, the complexity of food supply chains, and the fact that targeting excessive caloric consumption is far trickier than reducing overall consumption (as for tobacco). Nevertheless, efforts to curb caloric intake are gearing up and the experience from tobacco control has drawn much attention on a potential role for excise taxes in fighting obesity. Many related questions have therefore been raised as part of the IMF's capacity development work: Should excises on unhealthy food be used to fight obesity? If so, under what conditions? What are the product and market characteristics that would help identify the relevant tax bases and the rates at which to tax them? While acknowledging that the scientific evidence keeps evolving, this note summarizes the ongoing debate and practice on food excises and on their potential role as a policy tool to fight the obesity epidemic, with a view to assist policymakers in deciding whether to go forward, and if so, how. How to Apply Excise Taxes to Fight Obesity

     

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  18. Trade tensions, global value chains, and spillovers
    insights for Europe
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 9781498315135
    Schriftenreihe: Departmental paper series ; no. 19, 10
    Schlagworte: Internationale Produktion; Wertschöpfung; Zoll; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Europa; Welt; Value added; Tariff; International economic relations; Tariff ; Economic aspects
    Umfang: vi, 69 Seiten, Illustrationen, 28 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Includes bibliographical references (pages 65-69)

  19. Global value chains and productivity
    micro evidence from Estonia
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia

     

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  20. Climate mitigation policy in Denmark
    a prototype for other countries
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be... mehr

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    Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.

     

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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232492
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8895 (2021)
    Schlagworte: climate change; Denmark climate mitigation; carbon pricing; feebate; revenue recycling; border carbon adjustment; transportation; agriculture
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Individual treatment effects of budget balance rules
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences... mehr

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    This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Method. Our results indicate that countries with a budget balance rule improve their fiscal balance on average by around 3 percent after its introduction. However, our results also illustrate the importance of going beyond the average treatment effect, as it masks significant heterogeneity in the country-specific impact of the rule. We find that countries that would have had large deficits in the absence of the fiscal rule exhibit positive treatment effects, thus reducing their budget deficits. On the other hand, countries with budget surpluses respond to fiscal rules by reducing their budget surplus and moving closer to the numerical target of the rule. Our results also suggest that rules' design matters: a small overall number of fiscal rules, and the presence of a monitoring process outside the government, especially at the supra-national level, improve significantly the effectiveness of the rules

     

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  22. Revisiting carbon leakage
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations... mehr

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    This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations along two lines. First, we exploit recently published data on sector-country-specific changes in energy prices to identify changes in domestic carbon emissions and other flows (rather than the historically limited variation in carbon prices or adherence to international climate agreements). Second, we present a simple accounting framework to derive carbon leakage rates from reduced-form regressions in contrast to existing papers, thereby making our results directly comparable to model-based estimates of carbon leakage. We show that carbon leakage rates differ across countries and could be larger than what existing estimates suggest

     

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  23. Sectoral shocks and spillovers
    an application to COVID-19
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from... mehr

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    This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks-measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level-have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector's share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension

     

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  24. Climate mitigation in China
    which policies are most effective?
    Erschienen: July 2016
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    For the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, China pledged to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of GDP by 60-65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This paper develops a practical spreadsheet tool for evaluating a wide range of national... mehr

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    For the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, China pledged to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of GDP by 60-65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This paper develops a practical spreadsheet tool for evaluating a wide range of national level fiscal and regulatory policy options for reducing CO2 emissions in China in terms of their impacts on emissions, revenue, premature deaths from local air pollution, household and industry groups, and overall economic welfare. By far, carbon and coal taxes are the most effective policies for meeting environmental and fiscal objectives as they comprehensively cover emissions and have the largest tax base

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781475574524
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/16, 148
    Schlagworte: Klimapolitik; China
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Resolving China's corporate debt problem

    Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has... mehr

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    Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781475545289
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/16, 203
    Schlagworte: Verbindlichkeiten; Unternehmensfinanzierung; Kredit; Umschuldung; Budgetrestriktion; China
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen