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  1. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays intuitive relations with quantitative measures of cybersecurity risk disclosure language, exhibits a positive trend over time, is more prevalent among industries relying more on information technology systems, correlates with several characteristics linked to firms hit by cyber attacks and, importantly, predicts future cyber attacks. Stocks with high exposure to cybersecurity risk exhibit high expected returns on average, but they perform poorly in periods of increasing attention to cybersecurity risk.

     
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      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229578
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8760 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Manpower constraints and corporate policies
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yang, Shuyao
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of orders (measured in months). They are more willing to increase their capital expenditures, and more willing to grow their employment in the following year. Manpower constraints vary substantially over time and across industries, being higher on average in traditional manufacturing industries and lower in high-tech industries. For identification, we exploit the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and the subsequent differential fluxes of Eastern immigrants across Western states, which followed the pre-existing patterns of Eastern German immigration immediately after WWII. We construct a Manpower Constraint (MPC) Index calibrating the loadings on firm-level financials that are also available in commonly used data set for US, European, and Asian firms. Our results help inform relevant debates such as the reform of immigration policies and the investment in public and private education for low-skilled workers.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229516
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8698 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Effective policy communication
    targets versus instruments
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 10 November 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 685
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    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public's trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523233539
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240340
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2020, 17
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?
    Autor*in: Kugler, Maurice; Viollaz, Mariana; Duque, Daniel; Gaddis, Isis; Newhouse, David Locke; Palacios Lopez, Amparo; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper investigates the impacts of the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment of different types of workers in developing countries. Employment outcomes are taken from a set of high-frequency phone surveys conducted by... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 4
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper investigates the impacts of the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment of different types of workers in developing countries. Employment outcomes are taken from a set of high-frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank and National Statistics Offices in 40 countries. Larger shares of female, young, less educated, and urban workers stopped working. Gender gaps in work stoppage were particularly pronounced and stemmed mainly from differences within sectors rather than differential employment patterns across sectors. Differences in work stoppage between urban and rural workers were markedly smaller than those across gender, age, and education groups. Preliminary results from 10 countries suggest that following the initial shock at the start of the pandemic, employment rates partially recovered between April and August, with greater gains for those groups that had borne the brunt of the early jobs losses. Although the high-frequency phone surveys greatly over-represent household heads and therefore overestimate employment rates, case studies in five countries suggest that they provide a reasonably accurate measure of disparities in employment levels by gender, education, and urban/rural location following the onset of the crisis, although they perform less well in capturing disparities between age groups. These results shed new light on the labor market consequences of the COVID-19 crisis in developing countries, and suggest that real-time phone surveys, despite their lack of representativeness, are a valuable source of information to measure differential employment impacts across groups during a crisis.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245570
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14519
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemic shock; unemployment; worker displacement; coping mechanisms; post-shock differential employment evolution; heterogenous labor market impacts; high-frequency phone surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232866
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14114
    Schlagworte: expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The early labor market impacts of COVID-19 in developing countries
    evidence from high-frequency phone surveys
    Autor*in: Khamis, Melanie; Prinz, Daniel; Newhouse, David; Palacios-Lopez, Amparo; Pape, Utz; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Jobs, Washington, DC, USA

    The economic crisis caused by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This brief presents estimates on the crisis’ impact on labor markets in thirty-nine... mehr

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    Standort:
    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Online
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Clausthal
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Standort:
    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
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    The economic crisis caused by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This brief presents estimates on the crisis’ impact on labor markets in thirty-nine countries based on high-frequency phone survey (HFPS) data collected between April and July 2020. Workers in these countries experienced severe labor market disruptions following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Thirty-four percent of respondents reported stopping work, twenty percent of wage workers reported lack of payment for work performed, nine percent reported job changes due to the pandemic, and sixty-two percent reported income loss in their household. Measures of work stoppage and income loss in the HFPS are generally consistent with gross domestic products (GDP) growth projections in Latin America and the Caribbean but not in Sub-Saharan Africa, indicating that the phone survey data contributes valuable new information about the impacts of the crisis. Ensuring availability of such critical data in the future will require investments into statistical and physical infrastructure as well as human capital to set up Emergency Observatories, which can rapidly deploy phone surveys to inform decision makers

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10986/35044
    Schriftenreihe: Jobs working paper ; issue no. 58
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Beschäftigungseffekt; Entwicklungsländer; CORONAVIRUS; COVID-19; EMPLOYMENT; LABOR MARKET; LABOR MOBILITY; LOCKDOWN; PANDEMIC IMPACT; PHONE SURVEY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289945578
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237696
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2557 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: Uncertainty; household spending; household finance; surveys; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    W 1 (28196)
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    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 28196
    Umfang: 71 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  9. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    Using textual analysis and comparing cybersecurity-risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all US-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 544
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Using textual analysis and comparing cybersecurity-risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all US-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Portfolios of firms with high exposure to cybersecurity risk outperform other firms, on average, by up to 8.3% per year. At the same time, high-exposure firms perform poorly in periods of high cybersecurity risk. Reassuringly, the measure is higher in information-technology industries, correlates with characteristics linked to firms hit by cyberattacks, and predicts future cyberattacks

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: December 3rd 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 20, 108
    Schlagworte: Cyber attacks; Risk Disclosures; Textual Analysis; Stock returns
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)
  10. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations
    evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates"monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates"monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235275
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8905 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Steuerpolitik; Prognose; Privater Haushalt; Inflationserwartung; USA; expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations
    Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w28485
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Steuerpolitik; Prognose; Privater Haushalt; Inflationserwartung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  12. The early labor market impacts of COVID-19 in developing countries
    evidence from high-frequency phone surveys
    Autor*in: Khamis, Melanie; Prinz, Daniel; Newhouse, David Locke; Palacios Lopez, Amparo; Pape, Utz Johann; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  World Bank Group, Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice & Poverty and Equity Global Practice, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This paper presents estimates on the early impact of the crisis on labor markets in 39 countries... mehr

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    Standort:
    Evangelische Hochschule Berlin, Bibliothek
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    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    Universitätsbibliothek Ilmenau
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    The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply reduced mobility and economic activity, disrupting the lives of people around the globe. This paper presents estimates on the early impact of the crisis on labor markets in 39 countries based on high-frequency phone survey data collected between April and July 2020. Workers in these countries experienced severe labor market disruptions following the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on simple averages across countries, 34 percent of the respondents reported stopping work, 20 percent of wage workers reported lack of payment for work performed, 9 percent reported job changes due to the pandemic, and 62 percent reported income loss in their household. Stopping work was more prevalent in the industrial and service sectors than in agriculture. Measures of work stoppage and income loss in the high-frequency phone survey are generally consistent with gross domestic product growth projections in Latin America and the Caribbean but not in Sub-Saharan Africa. This suggests that the survey data contribute new and important information on economic impacts in low-income countries

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Policy research working paper ; 9510
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; Employment; High-frequency phone survey; Developing countries
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14213
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; household spending; household finance; surveys; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w28625
    Schlagworte: Konjunktur; Risiko; Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; Privater Konsum; Erwartungsbildung; Belgien; Deutschland; Großbritannien; Spanien; Frankreich; Niederlande; Eurozone
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  15. Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy... mehr

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    The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by non-expert consumers, forward guidance. Both policies aim to stimulate consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead, forward guidance requires that agents understand the inflationary effects of future low interest rates to increase their inflation expectations and spending today. We find households' inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially to unconventional fiscal policy announcements. The reaction is homogeneous across households with different levels of sophistication. Instead, households do not react after forward guidance announcements. These results support recent work stressing the importance of limited cognition for the effectiveness of policies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/207184
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: August 2019
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7793 (August 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Exposure to daily price changes and inflation expectations
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Ospina, Juan; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We show that, to form aggregate inflation expectations, consumers rely on the price changes they face in their daily lives while grocery shopping. Specifically, the frequency and size of price changes, rather than their expenditure share, matter for... mehr

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    We show that, to form aggregate inflation expectations, consumers rely on the price changes they face in their daily lives while grocery shopping. Specifically, the frequency and size of price changes, rather than their expenditure share, matter for individuals' inflation expectations. To document these facts, we collect novel micro data for a representative US sample that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. Our results suggest that the frequency and size of grocery-price changes to which consumers are personally exposed should be incorporated in models of expectations formation. Central banks' focus on core inflation - which excludes grocery prices - to design expectations-based policies might lead to systematic mistakes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/207189
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7798 (August 2019)
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Preisniveau; Lebensmittelhandel; Lebensmittelpreis; Geldpolitische Transmission; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Wachstum und Produktivität 2035
    Innovations- und Produktivitätslücken auf Ebene der Bundesländer : Endbericht zum Forschungsauftrag der Bertelsmann Stiftung
    Autor*in: Gillmann, Niels; Lehmann, Robert; Nauerth, Jannik A.; Ragnitz, Joachim; Sonnenburg, Julia; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: September 2019
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    In der vorliegenden Studie wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der deutschen Bundesländer vor dem Hintergrund zu erwartender Trends, etwa im Hinblick auf die Produktivitäts- und Demografieentwicklung, bis ins Jahr 2035 projiziert. Ausgehend von... mehr

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    In der vorliegenden Studie wird die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der deutschen Bundesländer vor dem Hintergrund zu erwartender Trends, etwa im Hinblick auf die Produktivitäts- und Demografieentwicklung, bis ins Jahr 2035 projiziert. Ausgehend von einem Basisszenario werden vier Alternativen modelliert, in denen bestimmte Zielvorstellungen für den Lebensstandard (Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner) und die Arbeitsproduktivität (Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Erwerbstätigen) vorgegeben werden. Diese dienen dazu, mögliche wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen abzuleiten. Im Basisszenario wird das Wirtschaftswachstum (Potenzialwachstum) im Projektionszeitraum im Vergleich zur jüngeren Vergangenheit spürbar abnehmen: Das Wachstum des realen BIP wird demnach auf rund 0,6 Prozent im Jahr 2035 fallen und sich somit gegenüber dem heutigen Stand mehr als halbieren. Auch der Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsproduktivität werden zukünftig langsamer wachsen als bisher. Wesentlicher Treiber dabei ist der sich verstärkende demografische Wandel, der dazu führt, dass diese Entwicklungen besonders zum Ende des Projektionszeitraums immer deutlicher zutage treten. [...]

     
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    ISBN: 9783959420716
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213575
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 106 (2019)
    Schlagworte: Lebensstandard; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Szenariotechnik; Teilstaat; Deutschland; Lebensstandard; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Produktivitätsentwicklung; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Szenariotechnik; Teilstaat; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 97 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Exposure to daily price changes and inflation expectations
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Ospina, Juan; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: September 2019
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 26237
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Erwartungsbildung; Preisniveau; Lebensmittelhandel; Lebensmittelpreis; Geldpolitische Transmission; USA
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  19. What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations?
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a focus on the inflation expectations of households. We first... mehr

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    Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a focus on the inflation expectations of households. We first review standard data sources and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. We then document that household inflation expectations are biased upwards, dispersed across individuals, and volatile in the time series. We also provide evidence of systematic differences by gender, income, education, and race. Turning to the underlying expectations formation process, we highlight the role of individuals' exposure to price signals in their daily lives, such as price changes in groceries, the role of lifetime experiences, and the role of cognition. We then discuss the literature that links inflation expectations to economic decisions at the individual level, including consumption-savings and financial decisions. We conclude with an outlook for future research

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29825
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; Statistische Daten; Theorie; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  20. What do the data tell us about inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a focus on the inflation expectations of households. We first... mehr

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    Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a focus on the inflation expectations of households. We first review standard data sources and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. We then document that household inflation expectations are biased upwards, dispersed across individuals, and volatile in the time series. We also provide evidence of systematic differences by gender, income, education, and race. Turning to the underlying expectations formation process, we highlight the role of individuals’ exposure to price signals in their daily lives, such as price changes in groceries, the role of lifetime experiences, and the role of cognition. We then discuss the literature that links inflation expectations to economic decisions at the individual level, including consumption-savings and financial decisions. We conclude with an outlook for future research.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252119
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9602 (2022)
    Schlagworte: beliefs formation; heterogeneous agents; macroeconomics with micro data; inflation exposure; experience effects; financial sophistication
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. What do the data tell us about inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 08 March 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schlagworte: Beliefs formation; Heterogeneous Agents; macroeconomics with micro data; inflationexposure; Experience effects; financial sophistication
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The expected, perceived, and realized inflation of u.s. households before and during the covid19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: 18 January 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16930
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; surveys; COVID19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Inclusive monetary policy
    how tight labor markets facilitate broad-based employment growth
    Autor*in: Bergman, Nittai; Matsa, David A.; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 10 January 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16876
    Schlagworte: Monetary Policy; Labor Markets; Heterogeneous Agents; Federal Reserve
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  24. Inclusive monetary policy
    how tight labor markets facilitate broad-based employment growth
    Autor*in: Bergman, Nittai K.; Matsa, David A.; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper analyzes the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on workers with differing levels of labor force attachment. Exploiting variation in labor market tightness across metropolitan areas, we show that the employment of populations with... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on workers with differing levels of labor force attachment. Exploiting variation in labor market tightness across metropolitan areas, we show that the employment of populations with lower labor force attachment - Blacks, high school dropouts, and women - is more responsive to expansionary monetary policy in tighter labor markets. The effect builds up over time and is long lasting. We develop a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous workers that rationalizes these results. The model shows that expansionary monetary shocks lead to larger increases in the employment of less attached workers when the central bank follows an average inflation targeting rule and when the Phillips curve is flatter. These findings suggest that, by tightening labor markets, the Federal Reserve's recent move from a strict to an average inflation targeting framework especially benefits workers with lower labor force attachment.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9512 (2022)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; labor markets; heterogeneous agents; federal reserve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. The expected, perceived, and realized inflation of U.S. households before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine the efficacy of affirmative action at universities whose value depends on peer and alumni networks. We study an elite Brazilian university that adopted race- and income-based affirmative action at a large scale. Using employer-employee... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
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    We examine the efficacy of affirmative action at universities whose value depends on peer and alumni networks. We study an elite Brazilian university that adopted race- and income-based affirmative action at a large scale. Using employer-employee data, we show that a key benefit of attending the university is access to high-paying jobs affiliated with its alumni. Affirmative action increased disadvantaged students' access to these firms and raised their early-career earnings. But these benefits faded over time. Further, the increase in student body diversity lowered the job prospects and earnings of the school's most highly ranked students.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/250688
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15027
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; surveys; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen