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  1. The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 21 March 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Zugang:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Standort:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18936
    Schlagworte: inflation; inflation expectations; long-term persistence; German hyperinflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Greater than the sum of its parts
    aggregate vs aggregated inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Knotek, Edward S.; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen

    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 135
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the early lowinflation environment of the covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 inflation surge. Conventionally elicited inflation expectations consistently exceed aggregated measures constructed under plausible weighting schemes. Aggregated measures display less disagreement and volatility and are stronger predictors of consumers' spending plans. The relative informational value of aggregated measures rises with the individual-level gap between conventional and aggregated inflation expectations. Our results chart a new course for designing measures of inflation expectations.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 2024
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 199 (9 November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Household expectations; Survey; Sectoral expectations; Inflation expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations
    Autor*in: Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, after partialling out determinants of... mehr

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    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    Resolving-System (lizenzpflichtig)

    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, after partialling out determinants of historical inflation and current inflation expectations . Our evidence points towards transmission of inflation experiences from parents to children and through collective memory. Differential historical inflation also modulates the updating of expectations to current inflation, the response to economic policies affecting inflation, and financial decisions. We obtain similar results for Polish households residing in formerly German areas. Overall, our findings are consistent with inflationary shocks having a long-lasting impact on attitudes towards inflation

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32160
    Schlagworte: Hyperinflation; Wirtschaftskrise; Inflationserwartung; Intergenerationale Übertragung; Deutschland (bis 1945); Household Saving; Personal Finance; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets; Europe: 1913-
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  4. ChatGPT and Corporate Policies
    Autor*in: Jha, Manish; Qian, Jialin; Weber, Michael; Yang, Baozhong
    Erschienen: February 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures managers' anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey... mehr

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    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    Resolving-System (lizenzpflichtig)

    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures managers' anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey responses. The investment score predicts future capital expenditure for up to nine quarters, controlling for Tobin's q and other determinants, implying the investment score provides incremental information about firms' future investment opportunities. The investment score also separately forecasts future total, intangible, and R&D investments. High-investment-score firms experience significant negative future abnormal returns. We demonstrate ChatGPT's applicability to measure other policies, such as dividends and employment

     
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  5. Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations are Meaningful and Important
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2024
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    Resolving-System (lizenzpflichtig)

    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of professionals and ex-post realizations. In sharp contrast, the literature we review shows household characteristics and the ways in which households collect and process economic information help us understand previously-considered puzzling facts about their subjective expectations. In turn, subjective expectations contribute to explain heterogeneous consumption, saving, investment, and debt choices as well as different reactions by similar households to the same monetary and fiscal policy measures. Matching microdata on households' characteristics with the price signals the same households observe, their subjective expectations, and their real-world economic decisions is crucial to establishing these facts. Our growing understanding of households' subjective expectations inspires several theoretical and empirical research directions and begets the design of innovative and more effective policy instruments

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w32199
    Schlagworte: Privater Haushalt; Private Finanzplanung; Meinungsforschung; Erwartungsbildung; General; Household Saving; Personal Finance; Expectations; Speculations; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Monetary Policy; Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  6. The long-term effects of inflation on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Braggion, Fabio; Meyerinck, Felix von; Schaub, Nic; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 21 March 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Zugang:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Bibliotheks-und Informationssystem der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (BIS)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18936
    Schlagworte: inflation; inflation expectations; long-term persistence; German hyperinflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Tell me something I don't already know
    learning in low and high-inflation settings
    Autor*in: Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Afrouzi, Hassan; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff; Ponce, George
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low-and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289963947
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2914
    Schlagworte: Inattention; RCTs; inflation expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation
    Autor*in: Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households view nominal debt more positively and increase estimates of their own real net wealth. These changes causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289963848
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no 2904
    Schlagworte: Inflation Beliefs; Information Treatment; Consumption; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Inflation and trading
    Autor*in: Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 431
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflationhedging strategies despite being otherwise well-informed about inflation and asset returns. Consequently, whereas exogenous shifts in inflation expectations do not impact return expectations, information on past returns during periods of high inflation leads to negative updating about the perceived stock-return impact of inflation, which feeds into return expectations and subsequent actual trading behavior.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 419 (May 2024)
    Schlagworte: Belief Formation; Field Experiment; Inflation; Trading
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen