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  1. Gender roles and the gender expectations gap
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Malmendier, Ulrike; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance, House of Finance, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Expectations about economic variables vary systematically across genders. In the domain of inflation, women have persistently higher expectations than men. We argue that traditional gender roles are a significant factor in generating this gender... mehr

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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 778
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    Expectations about economic variables vary systematically across genders. In the domain of inflation, women have persistently higher expectations than men. We argue that traditional gender roles are a significant factor in generating this gender expectations gap as they expose women and men to different economic signals in their daily lives. Using unique data on the participation of men and women in household grocery chores, their resulting exposure to price signals, and their inflation expectations, we document a tight link between the gender expectations gap and the distribution of grocery shopping duties. Because grocery prices are highly volatile, and consumers focus disproportionally on positive price changes, frequent exposure to grocery prices increases perceptions of current inflation and expectations of future inflation. The gender expectations gap is largest in households whose female heads are solely responsible for grocery shopping, whereas no gap arises in households that split grocery chores equally between men and women. Our results indicate that gender differences in inflation expectations arise due to social conditioning rather than through differences in innate abilities, skills, or preferences.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/244696
    Schriftenreihe: LawFin working paper ; no. 16
    Schlagworte: Expectations; Experiences; Gender Gap; Perceptions; Social Conditioning
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. A temporary VAT cut as unconventional fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households'... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 63
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    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households' consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices to quantify its effects. The temporary VAT cut led to a substantial relative increase in durable spending of 36% for individuals with a high perceived pass-through. Semi- and non-durable spending also increased. According to our preferred estimates, the VAT policy increased aggregate consumption spending by 34 billion Euros.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248944
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9399 (2021)
    Schlagworte: unconventional fiscal policy; value added tax; survey data; expectations; consumption; household data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Diverse policy committees can reach underrepresented groups
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Fuster, Andreas; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance, House of Finance, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken center stage worldwide, but whether and why diverse committees are more effective is still unclear. In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 778
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    Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken center stage worldwide, but whether and why diverse committees are more effective is still unclear. In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, we test whether diversity affects how Fed information influences consumers' subjective beliefs. Women and Black respondents form unemployment expectations more in line with FOMC forecasts and trust the Fed more after this intervention. Women are also more likely to acquire Fed-related information when associated with a female official. White men, who are overrepresented on the FOMC, do not react negatively. Heterogeneous taste for diversity can explain these patterns better than homophily. Our results suggest more diverse policy committees are better able to reach underrepresented groups without inducing negative reactions by others, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of policy communication and public trust in the institution.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/244701
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: August 2021
    Schriftenreihe: LawFin working paper ; no. 21
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 89 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Fuster, Andreas; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken center stage worldwide, but whether and why diverse committees are more effective is still unclear. In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation... mehr

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    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Increasing the diversity of policy committees has taken center stage worldwide, but whether and why diverse committees are more effective is still unclear. In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, we test whether diversity affects how Fed information influences consumers' subjective beliefs. Women and Black respondents form unemployment expectations more in line with FOMC forecasts and trust the Fed more after this intervention. Women are also more likely to acquire Fed-related information when associated with a female official. White men, who are overrepresented on the FOMC, do not react negatively. Heterogeneous taste for diversity can explain these patterns better than homophily. Our results suggest more diverse policy committees are better able to reach underrepresented groups without inducing negative reactions by others, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of policy communication and public trust in the institution

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29275
    Schlagworte: Zentralbank; Minderheit; Diversity Management; Geldpolitik; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  5. Human Frictions in the Transmission of Economic Policies
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitive-ability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29279
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Geldpolitische Transmission; Finanzpolitik; Konsumentenverhalten; Persönlichkeitspsychologie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  6. Forward guidance and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Banca d'Italia], [Rom]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This Draft: April 19th, 2021
    Schlagworte: Forward Guidance; Information; Prognose; Zins; Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; USA; Expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys; communication; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Diverse policy committees can reach underrepresented groups
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Fuster, Andreas; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 17 September 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16563
    Schlagworte: expectations; monetary policy; diversity; trust; Federal Reserve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 87 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Human frictions in the transmission of economic policy
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 9 September 2021
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 685
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    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitiveability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523233850
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249592
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: September 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2021, 12
    Schlagworte: Cognition; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Heterogeneous Agents; Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Beliefs; Redistribution; Inequality; Survey Data; Household Finance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households'... mehr

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    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Standort:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We exploit the unexpected announcement of an immediate, temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households' consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices to quantify its effects. The temporary VAT cut led to a substantial relative increase in durable spending of 36% for individuals with a high perceived pass-through. Semi- and non-durable spending also increased. According to our preferred estimates, the VAT policy increased aggregate consumption spending by 34 billion Euros

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29442
    Schlagworte: Umsatzsteuer; Steuerpolitik; Steuersenkung; Steuerwirkung; Konsumentenverhalten; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  10. Short-term impacts of targeted cash grants and business development services: experimental evidence from entrepreneurs in Burkina Faso
    Autor*in: Grimm, Michael; Soubeiga, Sidiki; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Most support programs targeted at small firms in low- and middle-income countries fail to generate transformative effects at a large scale due to bad targeting, too little flexibility, and the limited size of the support, among others. This paper... mehr

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    Most support programs targeted at small firms in low- and middle-income countries fail to generate transformative effects at a large scale due to bad targeting, too little flexibility, and the limited size of the support, among others. This paper assesses the short-term effects of a randomized targeted Government support program to small and medium-size firms that have been selected based on a business plan competition. One group received large cash grants of up to US$8,000, with flexible conditions of use. A second group received grants of an equally important size but earmarked to business development services and thus less flexible and with a required own contribution of 20 percent. A third group serves as a control group. All firms operate in agribusiness or related activities in a semi-urban area. An assessment of the short-term impacts shows that beneficiaries of cash grants engage in better business practices, such as formalization and bookkeeping. They also invest more. Yet, this does not translate into higher profits and employment. There is no effect on investment and business practices among beneficiaries of grants for business development services. Yet, both treatment groups show a higher ability to innovate relative to the control group. The results also show that cash grants cushioned the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. A further round of data collection will soon allow to assess the longer-term effects of both interventions which may differ from the short-term effects analyzed here as both interventions may need time to unfold their full effects.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/250553
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14892
    Schlagworte: firm support programs; cash grants; finance; matching grants; business development services; agribusiness; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. A temporary vat cut as unconventional fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Goldfayn-Frank, Olga; Kocharkov, Georgi; Luetticke, Ralph; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 02 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16690
    Schlagworte: unconventional fiscal policy; value added tax; survey data; Expectations; Consumption; household data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Political polarization and expected economic outcomes
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals' probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227350
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13823
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224046
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13604
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27693
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Stabilisierungspolitik; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; CARES Act
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  15. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments?
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor-supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223582
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8510 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Price rigidity and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations
    Autor*in: Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 864 (enero 2020)
    Schlagworte: Preisrigidität; Input-Output-Analyse; Konjunktur; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Mehrsektoren-Modell; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 878 (mayo 2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentlicher Auftrag; Systematischer Fehler; Dauer; Branche; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Multiplikator; Verdrängungseffekt; Inflation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government... mehr

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    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular; that is, it is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors. Second, relative to private expenditures its composition is biased. Third, procurement contracts are short-lived. Fourth, idiosyncratic variation dominates the fluctuation in spending. Last, government spending is concentrated in sectors with relatively sticky prices. Accounting for these facts within a stylized New Keynesian model offers new insights into the fiscal transmission mechanism: fiscal shocks hardly impact inflation, little crowding out of private expenditure exists, and the multiplier tends to be larger compared to a one-sector benchmark, aligning the model with the empirical evidence.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 15 (May 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays... mehr

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    We develop a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk using textual analysis of cybersecurity-risk disclosures in corporate filings. The measure successfully identifies firms extensively discussing cybersecurity risk in their 10-K, displays intuitive relations with quantitative measures of cybersecurity risk disclosure language, exhibits a positive trend over time, is more prevalent among industries relying more on information technology systems, correlates with several characteristics linked to firms hit by cyber attacks and, importantly, predicts future cyber attacks. Stocks with high exposure to cybersecurity risk exhibit high expected returns on average, but they perform poorly in periods of increasing attention to cybersecurity risk.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8760 (2020)
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  20. Manpower constraints and corporate policies
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yang, Shuyao
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of... mehr

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    Manpower constraints are the pervasive lack of specialized high- and low-skill workers, irrespective of the wage firms might offer. For a panel of German firms, we show manpower-constrained firms have higher capacity utilization and longer backlog of orders (measured in months). They are more willing to increase their capital expenditures, and more willing to grow their employment in the following year. Manpower constraints vary substantially over time and across industries, being higher on average in traditional manufacturing industries and lower in high-tech industries. For identification, we exploit the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and the subsequent differential fluxes of Eastern immigrants across Western states, which followed the pre-existing patterns of Eastern German immigration immediately after WWII. We construct a Manpower Constraint (MPC) Index calibrating the loadings on firm-level financials that are also available in commonly used data set for US, European, and Asian firms. Our results help inform relevant debates such as the reform of immigration policies and the investment in public and private education for low-skilled workers.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8698 (2020)
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  21. Effective policy communication
    targets versus instruments
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 10 November 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale... mehr

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    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public's trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.

     
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    ISBN: 9789523233539
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2020, 17
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. How did the COVID-19 crisis affect different types of workers in the developing world?
    Autor*in: Kugler, Maurice; Viollaz, Mariana; Duque, Daniel; Gaddis, Isis; Newhouse, David Locke; Palacios Lopez, Amparo; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper investigates the impacts of the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment of different types of workers in developing countries. Employment outcomes are taken from a set of high-frequency phone surveys conducted by... mehr

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    This paper investigates the impacts of the economic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the employment of different types of workers in developing countries. Employment outcomes are taken from a set of high-frequency phone surveys conducted by the World Bank and National Statistics Offices in 40 countries. Larger shares of female, young, less educated, and urban workers stopped working. Gender gaps in work stoppage were particularly pronounced and stemmed mainly from differences within sectors rather than differential employment patterns across sectors. Differences in work stoppage between urban and rural workers were markedly smaller than those across gender, age, and education groups. Preliminary results from 10 countries suggest that following the initial shock at the start of the pandemic, employment rates partially recovered between April and August, with greater gains for those groups that had borne the brunt of the early jobs losses. Although the high-frequency phone surveys greatly over-represent household heads and therefore overestimate employment rates, case studies in five countries suggest that they provide a reasonably accurate measure of disparities in employment levels by gender, education, and urban/rural location following the onset of the crisis, although they perform less well in capturing disparities between age groups. These results shed new light on the labor market consequences of the COVID-19 crisis in developing countries, and suggest that real-time phone surveys, despite their lack of representativeness, are a valuable source of information to measure differential employment impacts across groups during a crisis.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14519
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemic shock; unemployment; worker displacement; coping mechanisms; post-shock differential employment evolution; heterogenous labor market impacts; high-frequency phone surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232866
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14114
    Schlagworte: expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289945578
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    hdl: 10419/237696
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2557 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: Uncertainty; household spending; household finance; surveys; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Cybersecurity risk
    Autor*in: Florackis, Chris; Louca, Christodoulos; Michaely, Roni; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 28196
    Umfang: 71 Seiten, Illustrationen
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