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  1. Voter preferences, electoral promises, and the composition of public spending
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Scartascini, Carlos G.; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, [Washington, DC]

    This paper proposes and empirically tests a new demand-side explanation for distortions in public spending composition. Voters prefer spending with certain and immediate benefits when they have low trust in electoral promises and high discount rates.... mehr

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    This paper proposes and empirically tests a new demand-side explanation for distortions in public spending composition. Voters prefer spending with certain and immediate benefits when they have low trust in electoral promises and high discount rates. The paper incorporates these characteristics of voter choices into a probabilistic voting model with public spending tradeoffs. In equilibrium, candidates promising larger allocations to transfers and short-term public goods are more likely to win elections in settings with low trust and high impatience. An original survey of individual-level preferences for public spending in seven Latin American capital cities provides observational and experimental evidence consistent with the model-derived hypotheses. Respondents reporting low trust in politician promises are more likely to prefer transfers to public goods; respondents with high discount rates prefer short-term to long-term spending. These patterns also appear in country-level data on spending outcomes from the last two decades.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234700
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1123
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Trust, collaboration, and policy attitudes in the public sector
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Perilla, Sergio; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    This paper examines new data on public sector employees from 18 Latin American countries to shed light on the role of trust in the performance of government agencies. We developed an original survey taken during the first COVID-19 wave that includes... mehr

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    This paper examines new data on public sector employees from 18 Latin American countries to shed light on the role of trust in the performance of government agencies. We developed an original survey taken during the first COVID-19 wave that includes randomized experiments with pandemic-related treatments. We document that individual-level trust in coworkers, other public employees, and citizens is positively related to performance-enhancing behaviors, such as cooperation and information-sharing, and policy attitudes, such as openness to technological innovations in public service delivery. Trust is more strongly linked to positive behaviors and attitudes in non-merit-based civil service systems. High-trust and low-trust respondents report different assessments of their main work constraints. Also, they draw different inferences and prefer different policy responses when exposed to data-based framing treatments about social distancing outcomes in their countries. Low-trust public employees are more likely to assign responsibility for a negative outcome to the government and to prefer stricter enforcement of social distancing.

     
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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237481
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1196
    Schlagworte: Trust; Cooperation; Policy attitudes; Public sector; Pandemic; Survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Democracy, credibility and clientelism
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: 2005
    Verlag:  World Bank, Development Research Group, Growth and Investment Team, Washington, DC

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Policy research working paper ; 3472
    Schlagworte: Demokratie; Glaubwürdigkeit; Patronage; Theorie
    Umfang: 45 S
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  4. Trade attitudes in Latin America
    evidence from a multi-country survey experiment
    Autor*in: Rodríguez Chatruc, Marisol; Stein, Ernesto; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: April 2019
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), [Washington, DC]

    This paper examines individual-level support for trade liberalization, relates it to beliefs about trade, and measures its sensitivity to positive and negative framing. The data come from the 2018 Latinobarometro survey of eighteen countries, in... mehr

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    This paper examines individual-level support for trade liberalization, relates it to beliefs about trade, and measures its sensitivity to positive and negative framing. The data come from the 2018 Latinobarometro survey of eighteen countries, in which the authors embedded a survey experiment to study framing effects. It is found that respondents are generally favorable to increased trade with other countries, based on perceived trade benefits to employment, prices, and product variety. Support for trade is unaffected by positive framing but is highly sensitive downward to employment loss framing. Positive framing does shift upward respondent beliefs that trade increases product variety and reduces prices, but also raises concerns about low wages. Negative framing substantially reduces the prevailing beliefs that trade is associated with high employment, and there is no offsetting effect on the consumption side. Trade support levels and sensitivity display heterogeneity across education levels consistent with skill-based theories of trade, as well as interesting country, age, gender, and income heterogeneity.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208174
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no. IDB-WP-986
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Social trust and electoral populism
    explaining the quality of government
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Scartascini, Carlos G.; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: November 2019
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, [Washington, DC]

    Voters would be better off if they removed politicians offering low-quality government by pursuing populist policies and re-elected those who improved government quality with sustainable policies. In many political contexts, including those with free... mehr

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    Voters would be better off if they removed politicians offering low-quality government by pursuing populist policies and re-elected those who improved government quality with sustainable policies. In many political contexts, including those with free and fair elections, voters do the opposite. Low social trust can account for this paradox: voters must act collectively to shape political incentives, but low trust among voters is an obstacle to collective action. If every voter believes that fellow voters will accept particularistic benefits from poorly performing governments that keep them from voting against those governments, no voter has an incentive to select politicians who promise high-quality government. By the same logic, low social trust prevents voters from sanctioning politicians who renege on their promises. Frequent reneging on campaign promises, in turn, leads voters to hold low political trust. Low quality government, and in particular populism, emerge as optimal electoral strategies of political candidates in this environment. We analyze new survey data from 5,800 respondents in seven Latin American countries that provides support for a novel argument about populism and the quality of government: voters who express low trust are significantly more likely to prefer populist policies that reflect a low quality of government.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234660
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-01052
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  6. Inequality persistence and policymaking constraints
    explaining regional data patterns
    Autor*in: Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  IDB, Inter-American Development Bank, [Washington, DC]

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IDB, Inter-American Development Bank ; no IDB-DP-1036
    Schlagworte: inequality; policymaking; redistribution; trust; protests; Latin America
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Employee trust and performance constraints in public sector organizations
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    Theory suggests that employee trust is key to productivity in organizations, but empirical evidence documenting links between trust and constraints on performance is scarce. This paper analyzes self-collected data on public sector employees from... mehr

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    Theory suggests that employee trust is key to productivity in organizations, but empirical evidence documenting links between trust and constraints on performance is scarce. This paper analyzes self-collected data on public sector employees from eighteen Latin American countries and Önds that individual-level trust is relevant to three types of performance factors. First, high-trust employees are more willing to collaborate and share information with coworkers and are more supportive of technological innovation. Second, high-trust respondents have di§erent perceptions of organizational constraints: they are less concerned with low sta§ quality or lack of discretion to innovate, and more concerned with sta§ shortages. Third, trust in coworkers is associated with stronger mission motivation. Instrumental variable strategies based on the transmission of trust through social and professional channels account for potential sources of endogeneity. A survey experiment on preferences for social distancing policies provides further evidence that trust enhances mission motivation: employee policy preferences align better with the implied government policy when their trust in the public sector is higher.

     
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    hdl: 10419/289990
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1376
    Schlagworte: Trust; Performance; Public sector; Mission motivation; Survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Voting age, information experiments, and political engagement
    evidence from a general election
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    We exploit new experimental and quasi-experimental data to investigate voters' intrinsic motivation to engage politically. Does having the right to vote increase engagement or, given significant incentives to free ride, do eligible voters remain... mehr

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    We exploit new experimental and quasi-experimental data to investigate voters' intrinsic motivation to engage politically. Does having the right to vote increase engagement or, given significant incentives to free ride, do eligible voters remain rationally unengaged? Does knowledge that one's group is pivotal reduce free riding? And are the politically engaged influenced by election-relevant policy information in the run-up to a major election? To address these questions, we fielded an original survey of 5,400 Mexican high school seniors just prior to the historic 2018 general election. Age-based regression discontinuity results show that the just-eligible score higher on measures of low-cost political engagement compared to the just-ineligible. A first survey experiment reveals that information that the youth vote will be pivotal increases the eligible respondents' interest in the presidential debate and in the election result. In the second experiment, information about current policy outcomes affects future policy priorities in ways consistent with the incentives of eligible respondents to collect relevant information on salient policy issues.

     
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    hdl: 10419/289981
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1400
    Schlagworte: Political engagement; Free riding; Pivotal voters; Policy information
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Civic engagement in the Americas
    Autor*in: Scartascini, Carlos G.; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: March 2018
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), [Washington, DC]

    This paper estimates the effect of voting eligibility on civic engagement measured along three dimensions: political motivation, political activities, and political knowledge. These outcomes originate in the AmericasBarometer 2004-2016 surveys of... mehr

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    This paper estimates the effect of voting eligibility on civic engagement measured along three dimensions: political motivation, political activities, and political knowledge. These outcomes originate in the AmericasBarometer 2004-2016 surveys of eligible voters. To identify the effects the paper exploits variation in field survey dates relative to election dates, given country-specific voting age laws. It is found that voter enfranchisement increases self-reported interest in politics, political socialization, and attendance of political meetings; however, consumption of political news is not statistically different between eligible and non-eligible citizens. Some evidence indicates that the political activities voters engage in translate into increased political knowledge, in contrast with the view that voters are rationally ignorant. The effects are larger in countries with enforced mandatory voting.

     
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    46
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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208108
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no. IDB-WP-883
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Democracy, credibility and clientelism
    Autor*in: Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: 2005
    Verlag:  World Bank, Development Research Group, Growth and Investment Team, Washington, DC

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Schriftenreihe: Policy research working paper ; 3472
    Schlagworte: Demokratie; Glaubwürdigkeit; Patronage; Theorie
    Umfang: 45 S
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  11. Essays in political economy
    Autor*in: Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: 2006

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
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    Schlagworte: Gesetzgebung; Politische Willensbildung; Verantwortung; Prinzipal-Agent-Theorie; Theorie; USA
    Umfang: 175 S.
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    Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich. - Enth. 3 Beitr

    Zugl.: Evanston, Ill., Northwestern Univ., Diss., 2006
  12. Inequality persistence and policymaking constraints
    explaining regional data patterns
    Autor*in: Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: May 2024
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    In well-functioning democracies, the policymaking process should in principle respond to persistent economic inequality with corrective policies. This process is set in motion through majority demands for redistributive taxation and spending that... mehr

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    In well-functioning democracies, the policymaking process should in principle respond to persistent economic inequality with corrective policies. This process is set in motion through majority demands for redistributive taxation and spending that elected representatives eventually supply through policies designed to alleviate inequality. Policymaking constraints on both the demand side and the supply side have, however, considerably limited the extent of redistributive policies in Latin America. This paper explores recent data patterns from national and micro data to provide several potential explanations for the continuing high inequality observed in the region. Countries with stronger democracies have adopted more redistributive policies, even though post-tax inequality remains high in all of the region's democracies. Low citizen interpersonal and political trust both lead to fiscal policy preferences that constrain effective redistribution. Electoral participation has risen in the more democratic countries, while economically motivated protests have increased in weakly institutionalized settings.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / [Inter-American Development Bank] ; no IDB-WP-1599
    Schlagworte: Inequality; Policymaking; Redistribution; Trust; Protests; Latin America
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Child labor, rainfall shocks, and financial inclusion
    evidence from rural households
    Autor*in: Bernal, Carolina; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    This paper examines how rural households cope with climate change related rainfall shocks by re-allocating children's time between domestic activities and school attendance. Households affected by an unanticipated rainfall shock face an... mehr

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    This paper examines how rural households cope with climate change related rainfall shocks by re-allocating children's time between domestic activities and school attendance. Households affected by an unanticipated rainfall shock face an inter-temporal trade-off between current household income and future potential earnings. Financial inclusion may mitigate or exacerbate the human capital impacts of rainfall shocks depending on whether it relaxes or constrains household budgets. The data come from a three-round panel household survey in rural Colombia collected between 2010-2016. The main findings are that rainfall shocks induce households to choose immediate benefits over long-run investments in education by increasing the incidence of child labor and household chores at the expense of school attendance. Over-indebtedness through pre-existing formal loans reinforces the likelihood that a child works due to rainfall shocks, whereas asset insurance, foreign remittances, and natural disaster aid mitigate or eliminate the shock-induced shift toward domestic activities and away from schooling.

     
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    hdl: 10419/289918
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1461
    Schlagworte: Child labor; Human capital; Rainfall shocks; Climate change; Financial inclusion; Rural households
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Vote buying or campaign promises?
    electoral strategies when party credibility is limited
    Autor*in: Hanusch, Marek; Keefer, Philip; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: July 2016
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), [Washington, DC]

    What explains significant variation across countries in the use of vote buying instead of campaign promises to secure voter support? This paper explicitly models the tradeoff parties face between engaging in vote buying and making campaign promises,... mehr

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    What explains significant variation across countries in the use of vote buying instead of campaign promises to secure voter support? This paper explicitly models the tradeoff parties face between engaging in vote buying and making campaign promises, and explores the distributional consequences of this decision, in a setting where party credibility can vary. When parties are less credible they spend more on vote buying and target vote buying more heavily toward groups that do not believe campaign promises. When political credibility is sufficiently low, some voter groups are targeted only with vote buying and not with promises of post-electoral transfers. Stronger electoral competition reduces rent seeking but increases vote buying. Incumbents may have an advantage in undertaking vote buying; the paper finds that in a dynamic setting the prospect of a future incumbency advantage increases current vote buying.

     
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/146474
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no. IDB-WP-691
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  15. A structrual model of electoral accountability
    Autor*in: Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drazen, Allan; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP 11331
    Schlagworte: Wahlsystem; Regionalregierung; Dauer; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Unvollkommene Information; USA
    Umfang: 41 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  16. A structural model of electoral accountability
    Autor*in: Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drazen, Allan; Vlaicu, Razvan
    Erschienen: 2015

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; 21151
    Schlagworte: Wahlsystem; Regionalregierung; Dauer; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Unvollkommene Information; USA
    Umfang: 38, 9 S., graph. Darst.
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    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen