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  1. Learning from nationally determined contributions
    Autor*in: Akimoto, Keigo; Aldy, Joseph E.; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Carraro, Carlo; Pizer, Billy; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: 26 February 2018
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 32 (12757)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP 12757
    Schlagworte: Internationale Klimapolitik; Klimapolitik; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Modellierung
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe

    Richtiger Name der Verfasserin: Lara Aleluia Reis
  2. Too early to pick winners
    disagreement across experts implies the need to diversify R&D investment
    Autor*in: Anadon, Laura Diaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Reis, Lara Aleluia
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (22)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be decreasing returns to R&D and report median cost reductions around 20% for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the returns to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. Indeed, the wide divergence of opinions suggests that it is still too early to pick winners and that a broad portfolio of investments may be the best option.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/142296
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 22
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D
    Autor*in: Baker, Erin; Olaleye, Olaitan; Reis, Lara Aleluia
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    In this paper we provide an overview of decision frameworks aimed at crafting an energy technology Research & Development portfolio, based on the results of three large expert elicitation studies and a large scale energy-economic model. We introduce... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (2015,42)
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    In this paper we provide an overview of decision frameworks aimed at crafting an energy technology Research & Development portfolio, based on the results of three large expert elicitation studies and a large scale energy-economic model. We introduce importance sampling as a technique for integrating elicitation data and large IAMs into decision making under uncertainty models. We show that it is important to include both parts of this equation - the prospects for technological advancement and the interactions of the technologies in and with the economy. We find that investment in energy technology R&D is important even in the absence of climate policy. We illustrate the value of considering dynamic two-stage sequential decision models under uncertainty for identifying alternatives with option value. Finally, we consider two frameworks that incorporate ambiguity aversion. We suggest that these results may be best used to guide future research aimed at improving the set of elicitation data.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/113942
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 42.2015
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (40 S.), graph. Darst.
  4. Regional low-emission pathways from global models
    Autor*in: Soest, Heleen van; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bertram, Christoph; Drouet, Laurent; Jewell, Jessica; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar G.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Tavoni, Massimo; Elzen, Michel G. J. den; Awasthy, Aayushi; Calvin, Katherine; Capros, Pantelis; Clarke, Leon; Colombier, Michel; Teng, Fei; Garg, Amit; Guedes, Fernanda; Imperio, Mariana; Kainuma, Mikiko; Jiang, Kejun; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Kolp, Peter; Krey, Volker; Kitous, Alban; Leonidas, Paroussos; Lucena, André F. P.; Masui, Toshihiko; Nogueira, Larissa; Pierfederici, Roberta; Saveyn, Bert; Schaeffer, Roberto; Fu, Sha; Shoai, Bianka; Shukla, Pryadarshi R.; Spencer, Thomas; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Waisman, Henri
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (110)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/130291
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 110.2015
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Assessing the implications of a global net-zero transition for developing Asia
    insights from integrated assessment modeling
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Drouet, Laurent; Raitzer, David A.; Pradhananga, Manisha
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 496
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2°C. Under an efficient approach to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, the power sector would almost fully decarbonize by mid-century, and emissions from land use would strongly fall. Although the climate has a lagged response to emissions reductions, climate benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 3, with gains concentrated in the lowest-income subregions of Asia. Air quality would also improve, saving about 0.35 million lives in the region by 2050. Including these co-benefits raises the benefit-cost ratio for Asia under ambitious decarbonization to 5. Energy-related employment also rises during the transition. However, appropriate policies are needed to address potential effects on disadvantaged groups.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 709 (December 2023)
    Schlagworte: climate change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; energy; land use; net-zero; NDCs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia
    Autor*in: Reis, Lara Aleluia; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David
    Erschienen: December 2016
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 496 (504)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2°C) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2°C scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2°C scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2°C scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region - if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/169335
    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 504 (December 2016)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The future prospects of energy technologies
    insights from expert elicitations
    Autor*in: Verdolini, Elena; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Reis, Lara Aleluia
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (47)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives: (1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making; (2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and (3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches. We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/145373
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 47
    Schlagworte: Energietechnik; Innovation; Risiko; Technikfolgenabschätzung
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The WITCH 2016 model
    documentation and implementation of the shared socioeconomic pathways
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Bevione, Michela; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Carrara, Samuel; De Cian, Enrica; De Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier; Longden, Tom; Malpede, Maurizio; Marangoni, Giacomo; Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo; Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Havlik, Petr
    Erschienen: June 17, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (42)
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    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.

     
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    hdl: 10419/142316
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 42
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen