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  1. Debt management in a world of fiscal dominance
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; De Beauffort, Charles; Oikonomou, Rigas
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    We study the impact of debt maturity management in an economy where monetary policy is 'passive' and subservient to fiscal policy. We setup a tractable model, to characterize analytically the dynamics of in ation, as well as other macroeconomic... mehr

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    We study the impact of debt maturity management in an economy where monetary policy is 'passive' and subservient to fiscal policy. We setup a tractable model, to characterize analytically the dynamics of in ation, as well as other macroeconomic variables, showing their dependence on the monetary policy rule and on the maturity of debt. Debt maturity becomes a key variable when the monetary authority reacts to in ation and the appropriate maturity of debt can restore the efficacy of monetary policy in controlling in ation. This requires debt management to focus on issuing long bonds. Moreover, we propose a novel framework of Ramsey optimal coordinated debt and monetary policies, to derive analytically the interest rate rule followed by the monetary authority as a function of debt maturity. The optimal policy model leads to the same prescription, long term debt financing enables to stabilize in ation. Lastly, the relevance of debt maturity in reducing in ation variability is also confirmed in a medium scale DSGE model estimated with US data.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/252327
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2021, 11
    Schlagworte: Passive Monetary Policy; Government Debt Management; Fiscal and MonetaryPolicy Interactions; Bayesian estimation; Ramsey policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Debt management in a world of fiscal dominance
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; De Beauffort, Charles; Oikonomou, Rigas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherche économiques et sociales, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2078.1/249382
    Schriftenreihe: LIDAM discussion paper IRES ; 2021, 18
    Schlagworte: Passive Monetary Policy; Government Debt Management; Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions; Bayesian estimation; Ramsey policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Endogenous forward guidance
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; Oikonomou, Rigas; Priftis, Romanos; Vogel, Lukas
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Leipzig]

    We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting... mehr

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    We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap, to stabilize inflation today. 2. From debt sustainability concerns, when the planner takes into account the consolidated budget constraint in optimization. Our model is tractable and admits an analytical solution for interest rates in which 1 and 2 show up as separate arguments that enter additively to the standard Taylor rule. In the case where optimal policy reflects debt sustainability concerns (satisfies the consolidated budget) monetary policy becomes subservient to fiscal policy, giving rise to more volatile inflation, output and interest rates. Liquidity trap (LT) episodes are longer, however, the impact of interest rate policy commitments on inflation and output are moderate. "Keeping interest rates low" for a long period, does not result in positive inflation rates during the LT, in contrast our model consistently predicts negative inflation at the onset of a LT episode. In contrast, in the absence of debt concerns, LT episodes are shorter, but the impact of commitments to keep interest rates low at the exit from the LT, on inflation and output is substantial. In this case monetary policy accomplishes to turn inflation positive at the onset of the episode, through promising higher inflation rates in future periods. We embed our theory into a DSGE model and estimate it with US data. Our findings suggest that FG during the Great Recession may have partly reflected debt sustainability concerns, but more likely policy reflected a strong commitment to stabilize inflation and the output gap. Our quantitative findings are thus broadly consistent with the view that the evolution of debt aggregates may have had an impact on monetary policy in the Great Recession, but this impact is likely to be small.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; Array
    Working paper research / National Bank of Belgium ; no 354 (October 2018)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Phasing out plastics
    Autor*in: Scott, Andrew; Pickard, Sam; Sharp, Samuel; Becqué, Renilde
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  ODI, London

    Plastics today feature in every part of our lives and are found everywhere. The global realisation that plastics are an environmental problem has focused on plastic waste and pollution, but plastics are also problematic in terms of the global climate... mehr

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    Plastics today feature in every part of our lives and are found everywhere. The global realisation that plastics are an environmental problem has focused on plastic waste and pollution, but plastics are also problematic in terms of the global climate emergency, because almost all plastics today are made from fossil fuels. By 2050, on current trends, greenhouse gas emissions from plastics will increase threefold and could account for as much as 20% of total oil consumption. To achieve net zero emissions globally by 2050, it is critical that the plastics sector reduce its emissions to zero by that date. Building on recent literature about plastics and climate change, this report explores the potential for extensive emission reductions in the plastics sector. Using a scenario approach, we present an assessment of the technical feasibility of phasing out the production of new fossil plastics by 2050, based on detailed analysis of the potential to transform the use of plastics in four sectors - automotive, construction, packaging and electrical and electronic equipment.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Report / ODI
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Implications of geoengineering for developing countries
    Autor*in: Nassiry, Darius; Pickard, Sam; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: November 2017
    Verlag:  Overseas Development Institute, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Overseas Development Institute ; 524
    Schlagworte: Geoengineering; Wirkungsanalyse; Governance-Ansatz; Entwicklungsländer
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. How solar household systems contribute to resilience
    Autor*in: Scott, Andrew; Worrall, Leah; Hörnberg, Jesper; To, Long Seng
    Erschienen: December 2017
    Verlag:  Overseas Development Institute, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Overseas Development Institute ; 528
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. (Optimal) monetary policy with and without debt
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; Oikonomou, Rigas; Priftis, Romanos; Vogel, Lukas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    We propose a framework of optimal monetary policy where debt sustainability may, or may not, be a relevant constraint for the central bank. We show analytically that in each environment the optimal interest rate path consists of a Taylor rule... mehr

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    We propose a framework of optimal monetary policy where debt sustainability may, or may not, be a relevant constraint for the central bank. We show analytically that in each environment the optimal interest rate path consists of a Taylor rule augmented with forward guidance terms. These terms arise either i) from "twisting interest rates" when the central bank ensures debt sustainability, or ii) under no debt concerns, from committing to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap. The optimal policy is isomorphic to Leeper's (1991) "passive monetary/active fiscal policy" regime in the first instance, or "active monetary/passive fiscal policy" regime in the second. We insert our framework into a standard medium scale DSGE model calibrated to the US. Optimal passive monetary policy with debt concerns is ineffective in stabilizing inflation, whereas under no debt concerns, monetary policy is very effective in stabilizing the macroeconomy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/241228
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: January 26, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2021, 5
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; Monetary policy framework; Fiscal policy; Economic models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The James Joyce BBC radio drama collection
    Autor*in: Joyce, James; Bowker, Gordon
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Penguin Random House, [England]

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    Stadtbibliothek Bremen, Zentralbibliothek
    Signatur:
    Englisch CD SG Joyc
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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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  9. COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks, and occupational demand
    Autor*in: Blanas, Sotiris; Oikonomou, Rigas
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherche économiques et sociales, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2078.1/258577
    Schriftenreihe: LIDAM discussion paper IRES ; 2022, 02
    Schlagworte: Occupational demand; Occupational characteristics; Tasks; Online Job Postings; Covid-induced economic uncertainty; Covid-19; Pandemic
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The Rise of Age-Friendly Jobs
    Autor*in: Acemoglu, Daron; Mühlbach, Nicolaj Søndergaard; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    In 1990, one in five U.S. workers were aged over 50 years whereas today it is one in three. One possible explanation for this is that occupations have become more accommodating to the preferences of older workers. We explore this by constructing an... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    In 1990, one in five U.S. workers were aged over 50 years whereas today it is one in three. One possible explanation for this is that occupations have become more accommodating to the preferences of older workers. We explore this by constructing an "age-friendliness" index for occupations. We use Natural Language Processing to measure the degree of overlap between textual descriptions of occupations and characteristics which define age friendliness. Our index provides an approximation to rankings produced by survey participants and has predictive power for the occupational share of older workers. We find that between 1990 and 2020 around three quarters of occupations have seen their age-friendliness increase and employment in above-average age-friendly occupations has risen by 49 million. However, older workers have not benefited disproportionately from this rise, with substantial gains going to younger females and college graduates and with male non-college educated workers losing out the most. These findings point to the need to frame the rise of age-friendly jobs in the context of other labour market trends and imperfections. Purely age-based policies are insufficient given both heterogeneity amongst older workers as well as similarities between groups of older and younger workers. The latter is especially apparent in the overlapping appeal of specific occupational characteristics

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30463
    Schlagworte: Ältere Arbeitskräfte; Arbeitsbedingungen; USA; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity; Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  11. The long and short of financing government spending
    Autor*in: Mankart, Jochen; Priftis, Romanos; Oikonomou, Rigas
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  National Bank of Belgium, Brussels

    This paper shows that debt-financed fiscal multipliers vary depending on the maturity of debt issued to finance spending. Utilizing state-dependent SVAR models and local projections for post-war US data, we show that a fiscal expansion financed with... mehr

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    This paper shows that debt-financed fiscal multipliers vary depending on the maturity of debt issued to finance spending. Utilizing state-dependent SVAR models and local projections for post-war US data, we show that a fiscal expansion financed with short term debt increases output more than one financed with long term debt. The reason for this result is that only the former may lead to a significant increase in private consumption. We then construct an incomplete markets model in which households invest in long and short assets. Short assets have a lower return (in equilibrium) since they provide liquidity services, households can use them to cover sudden spending shocks. An increase in the supply of these assets through a short term debt financed government spending shock makes it easier for constrained households to meet their spending needs and therefore crowds in private consumption. We first prove this analytically in a simplified model and then show it in a calibrated standard New Keynesian model. We finally study the optimal policy under a Ramsey planner. The optimizing government faces a trade-off between the hedging value of long term debt, as its price decreases in response to adverse shocks, and the larger multiplier when it issues short term debt. We find that the latter effect dominates and that the optimal policy for the government is to finance spending predominantly with short term debt.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Konferenzschrift
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273122
    Körperschaften/Kongresse: International Research Conference on Household Heterogeneity and Policy Relevance (2022, Brüssel)
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper research / National Bank of Belgium ; no 418 (20 & 21 October 2022)
    Schlagworte: Spending multiplier; Fiscal Policy; Debt Maturity; Incomplete Markets; SVAR; Local Projections
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Funding the Great War and the beginning of the end for British hegemony
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Sargent, Thomas J.; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 10 July 2019
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP13848
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Managing the UK national debt 1694-2017
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  CFM, Centre for Macroeconomics, London

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    Schriftenreihe: CFM discussion paper series ; CFM-DP 2017, 27 (September 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Optimal monetary policy rules in the fiscal theory of the price level
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; De Beauffort, Charles; Oikonomou, Rigas
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institut de recherche économiques et sociales, UC Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2078.1/259934
    Schriftenreihe: LIDAM discussion paper IRES ; 2022, 07
    Schlagworte: Fiscal Theory; Optimal Interest Rates; Government Debt Maturity; Ramsey policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Fickle investors
    an impediment to growth?
    Autor*in: Scott, Andrew; Uhlig, Harald F.
    Erschienen: 1999

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    ISBN: 0753012650
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 415
    Schlagworte: Kapitalmobilität; Portfolio-Investition; Endogenes Wachstumsmodell; Partielles Gleichgewicht; Theorie
    Umfang: 28, [2] S. : graph. Darst
  16. Sticky prices and volatile output
    or when is a Phillips curve not a Phillips curve?
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 1998

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    ISBN: 0753012294
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; 396
    Schlagworte: Konjunktur; Stochastisches Wachstumsmodell; Cash-in-Advance-Restriktion; Phillips-Kurve; Preisrigidität; Schätzung; Theorie; Großbritannien
    Umfang: 23 S, graph. Darst
  17. Savings, demography and interest rates
    Autor*in: Currie, David A.; Holly, Sean; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 1989

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 89,01
    Schlagworte: Sparen; Sparquote; Konsumtheorie; Zins; Demographie; Theorie
    Umfang: 35 S. : graph. Darst
  18. Sticky prices and volatile output
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 2001

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Bank of England ; 127
    Schlagworte: Konjunktur; Stochastisches Wachstumsmodell; Cash-in-Advance-Restriktion; Phillips-Kurve; Preisrigidität; Schätzung; Theorie; Großbritannien
    Umfang: 19 S, graph. Darst
  19. Consumption, "credit crunches" and financial deregulation
    Autor*in: Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 1996
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Deutsche Universität für Verwaltungswissenschaften Speyer, Universitätsbibliothek
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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1389
    Schlagworte: Kreditpolitik; Privater Konsum; Konjunkturtheorie; Theorie; Großbritannien
    Umfang: 30 S., graph. Darst.
  20. Endogenous forward guidance
    Autor*in: Chafwehé, Boris; Oikonomou, Rigas; Priftis, Romanos; Vogel, Lukas
    Erschienen: October 2018
    Verlag:  National Bank of Belgium, Brussels

    We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from... mehr

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    We propose a novel framework where forward guidance (FG) is endogenously determined. Our model assumes that a monetary authority solves an optimal policy problem under commitment at the zero-lower bound. FG derives from two sources: 1. from commiting to keep interest rates low at the exit of the liquidity trap, to stabilize inflation today. 2. From debt sustainability concerns, when the planner takes into account the consolidated budget constraint in optimization. Our model is tractable and admits an analytical solution for interest rates in which 1 and 2 show up as separate arguments that enter additively to the standard Taylor rule. In the case where optimal policy reflects debt sustainability concerns (satisfies the consolidated budget) monetary policy becomes subservient to fiscal policy, giving rise to more volatile inflation, output and interest rates. Liquidity trap (LT) episodes are longer, however, the impact of interest rate policy commitments on inflation and output are moderate. "Keeping interest rates low" for a long period, does not result in positive inflation rates during the LT, in contrast our model consistently predicts negative inflation at the onset of a LT episode. In contrast, in the absence of debt concerns, LT episodes are shorter, but the impact of commitments to keep interest rates low at the exit from the LT, on inflation and output is substantial. In this case monetary policy accomplishes to turn inflation positive at the onset of the episode, through promising higher inflation rates in future periods. We embed our theory into a DSGE model and estimate it with US data. Our findings suggest that FG during the Great Recession may have partly reflected debt sustainability concerns, but more likely policy reflected a strong commitment to stabilize inflation and the output gap. Our quantitative findings are thus broadly consistent with the view that the evolution of debt aggregates may have had an impact on monetary policy in the Great Recession, but this impact is likely to be small.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207734
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper research / National Bank of Belgium ; no 354 (October 2018)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Does tax smoothing imply smooth taxes?
    Autor*in: Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 1999
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Standort:
    Deutsche Universität für Verwaltungswissenschaften Speyer, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2172
    Schlagworte: Optimale Besteuerung; Unvollkommener Markt; Theorie; Schätzung; USA; Taxation; Fiscal policy; Endogenous growth (Economics)
    Umfang: 19 S., graph. Darst.
  22. Green fiscal reform for a just energy transition in Latin America
    Autor*in: Jakob, Michael; Soria, Rafael; Trinidad Alvarado, Carlos; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bak, Céline; Bouille, Daniel; Buira, Daniel; Carlino, Hernan; Gutman, Veronica; Hübner, Christian; Knopf, Brigitte; Lucena, André F. P.; Silva, Luan Carlos Santos; Scott, Andrew; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Tanaka, Kanako; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Yamada, Koichi
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    Green fiscal reforms would contribute to climate change mitigation, increase the economic efficiency of national tax systems and provide additional public revenues. Some countries in Latin America have already taken first steps towards green fiscal... mehr

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    Green fiscal reforms would contribute to climate change mitigation, increase the economic efficiency of national tax systems and provide additional public revenues. Some countries in Latin America have already taken first steps towards green fiscal reforms. This paper provides an overview of the major challenges for the successful implementation of such reforms and discusses how they could be overcome. The authors first discuss the role of country-specific economic and political enabling conditions that need to be in place for successful implementation for green successful reforms. Second, they emphasize the importance of comprehensive reform plans that include all relevant ministries and agencies and are well-aligned with other policy objectives, such as energy security and industrial development. Third, they highlight how appropriate sequencing and gradualism could lower implementation costs and hence increase the political feasibility of green fiscal reforms. Finally, the authors analyze the potential impacts of green fiscal reforms on the distribution of income and discuss transfer schemes that could avoid adverse outcomes for the poorest parts of the population. They use these four dimensions to illustrate why recent reform efforts in selected Latin American countries have been successful or have failed, respectively.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 2018, 86 (December 17, 2018)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Managing the UK national debt 1694-2017
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 16 September 2017
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP 12304
    Schlagworte: Schuldenmanagement; Geschichte; Öffentliche Anleihe; Fälligkeit; Dauer; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  24. Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017
    Autor*in: Ellison, Martin; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: September 2017
    Verlag:  University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Oxford

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 833 (September 2017)
    Schlagworte: Schuldenmanagement; Geschichte; Öffentliche Anleihe; Fälligkeit; Dauer; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Inflation implications of rising government debt
    Autor*in: Giannitsarou, Chryssi; Scott, Andrew
    Erschienen: 2006
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    82/766 B-12654
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; 12654
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Inflation; Finanzpolitik; Nachhaltigkeit; Öffentlicher Haushalt; Industrieländer
    Umfang: 36 S., graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 24 - 25

    Internetausg.: papers.nber.org/papers/w12654.pdf - lizenzpflichtig