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  1. Greater than the sum of its parts
    aggregate vs aggregated inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Knotek, Edward S.; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen

    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 135
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the early lowinflation environment of the covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 inflation surge. Conventionally elicited inflation expectations consistently exceed aggregated measures constructed under plausible weighting schemes. Aggregated measures display less disagreement and volatility and are stronger predictors of consumers' spending plans. The relative informational value of aggregated measures rises with the individual-level gap between conventional and aggregated inflation expectations. Our results chart a new course for designing measures of inflation expectations.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 2024
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 199 (9 November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Household expectations; Survey; Sectoral expectations; Inflation expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Big news
    climate change and the business cycle
    Autor*in: Dietrich, Alexander M.; Schoenle, Raphael; Müller, Gernot J.
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen

    News - anticipated changes of an economy's fundamentals - drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news,... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 135
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    News - anticipated changes of an economy's fundamentals - drive the business cycle. Climate change is big news: it will impact the economy profoundly, but its full effect will take time to materialize. To better understand the transmission of news, this paper focuses on climate-change expectations. First, we measure the expected economic impact of climate change in a representative survey of U.S. consumers. We find, in particular, that costly natural disasters are salient of climate change. Second, we calibrate a New Keynesian model with rare disasters to the survey results and find that shifts in climate-change expectations operate like adverse demand shocks.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 197 (6 November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Climate change; Disasters; Expectations; Survey; Monetary policy; Business Cycle; Natural rate of interest
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Inflation preferences
    Autor*in: Afrouzi, Hassan; Dietrich, Alexander M.; Myrseth, Kristian Ove R.; Priftis, Romanos; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 18 April 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Zugang:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP19006
    Schlagworte: Household expectations; Survey; Inflation preferences
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen