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  1. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series ; no. 21, 17 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Price-setting; menu cost; micro moments; sufficient statistics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Firm expectations and economic activity
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on... mehr

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    We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 percent of aggregate fluctuations.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289949088
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249894
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2621 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: Survey data; Propensity score matching; Business cycle; News; Noise
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Global risk and the dollar
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk... mehr

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    How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They cause a synchronized contraction of global economic activity and appreciate the dollar. Other key financial indicators adjust in line with pre-dictions of recent theoretical work. Second, we illustrate through counterfactuals that the dollar appreciation amplifies the adverse impact of global risk shocks outside of the US via a financial channel.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289949156
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    hdl: 10419/249901
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2628 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: US dollar exchange rate; global risk shocks; Bayesian proxy structural VAR,minimum relative entropy; counterfactual
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The exchange rate insulation puzzle
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We confront the notion that flexible rates insulate a country from external disturbances with new evidence on spillovers from euro-area shocks to neighboring countries. We find that in response to euro-area shocks, spillovers are not smaller, and... mehr

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    We confront the notion that flexible rates insulate a country from external disturbances with new evidence on spillovers from euro-area shocks to neighboring countries. We find that in response to euro-area shocks, spillovers are not smaller, and currency movements not significantly larger, in countries that float their currency, relative to those that peg to the euro - the insulation puzzle. Unconditionally, however, currency volatility is significantly higher for floaters. A state-of-the-art open-economy model can fit our conditional evidence on lack of insulation, provided monetary policy targets headline inflation, but only at the cost of missing the unconditional evidence on currency volatility.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289949170
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    hdl: 10419/249903
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2630 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: Exchange-rate regime; Insulation; External shock; International spillovers,Exchange-rate disconnect
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 101 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27836
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Inflationssteuerung; Ankündigungseffekt; Konsumentenverhalten; USA
    Umfang: 47 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  6. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Erschienen: 18 September 2020
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP15307
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Price rigidity and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 864 (enero 2020)
    Schlagworte: Preisrigidität; Input-Output-Analyse; Konjunktur; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Mehrsektoren-Modell; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 875 (april 2020)
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Schock; Mikrofundierung; Querschnittsanalyse; Mikrodaten; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Big G
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 878 (mayo 2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentlicher Auftrag; Systematischer Fehler; Dauer; Branche; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Multiplikator; Verdrängungseffekt; Inflation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Big G
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government... mehr

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    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular; that is, it is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors. Second, relative to private expenditures its composition is biased. Third, procurement contracts are short-lived. Fourth, idiosyncratic variation dominates the fluctuation in spending. Last, government spending is concentrated in sectors with relatively sticky prices. Accounting for these facts within a stylized New Keynesian model offers new insights into the fiscal transmission mechanism: fiscal shocks hardly impact inflation, little crowding out of private expenditure exists, and the multiplier tends to be larger compared to a one-sector benchmark, aligning the model with the empirical evidence.

     

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 15 (May 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Raising the inflation target
    how much extra room does it really give?
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 16 (June 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 26 (September 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Mr. Keynes meets the classics
    government spending and the real exchange rate
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    In economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government spending shocks is asymmetric. A fiscal expansion appreciates the real exchange rate but does not stimulate output. A fiscal contraction does not alter the exchange rate, but lowers... mehr

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    In economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government spending shocks is asymmetric. A fiscal expansion appreciates the real exchange rate but does not stimulate output. A fiscal contraction does not alter the exchange rate, but lowers output. We develop these insights in a two-sector model of a small open economy with downward nominal wage rigidity. We establish new empirical evidence that supports the predictions of the model along several dimensions: not only does the exchange rate regime shape the fiscal transmission mechanism as predicted by the model - in doing so it also interacts with economic slack and inflation.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235239
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 352 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Downward nominal wage rigidity; government spending shocks; exchangerate peg; real exchange rate; nonlinear effects; asymmetric adjustment; depreciation bias
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Measuring price selection in microdata
    it's not there
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a... mehr

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    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a higher probability to identified monetary and credit shocks. We find that they do not, suggesting selection is absent. Instead, we detect state-dependent adjustment on the gross extensive margin. Our results are broadly consistent with second-generation state-dependent pricing models and sizable effects of monetary policy on the real economy.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289947527
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237705
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2566 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: monetary non-neutrality; state-dependent pricing; identified credit and monetary policy shocks; price-gap proxy; scanner data; PPI microdata
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. The macroeconomic impact of Trump
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 928 (April 2020)
    Schlagworte: President Trump; macroeconomic performance; economic growth; counterfactual; synthetic control method; doppelganger
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The exchange rate insulation puzzle
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    The notion that flexible exchange rates insulate a country from foreign shocks is well grounded in theory, from the classics (Meade, 1951; Friedman 1953), to the more recent open economy literature (Obstfeld and Rogo, 2000). We confront it with new... mehr

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    The notion that flexible exchange rates insulate a country from foreign shocks is well grounded in theory, from the classics (Meade, 1951; Friedman 1953), to the more recent open economy literature (Obstfeld and Rogo, 2000). We confront it with new evidence from Europe. Specifically, we study how shocks that originate in the euro area spill over to its neighboring countries. We exploit the variation of the exchange rate regime across time and countries to assess whether the regime alters the spillovers: it does not-flexible exchange rates fail to provide insulation against euro area shocks. This result is robust across a number of specifications and holds up once we control for global financial conditions. We show that the workhorse open-economy model can account for the lack of insulation under a float, assuming that central banks respond to headline consumer price inflation. However, it remains puzzling that policy makers are ready to forego stabilization of economic activity to the extent we found in the data.

     

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    hdl: 10419/228863
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 060
    Schlagworte: External shock; International spillovers; Exchange rate; Insulation; Monetary Policy; Dominant currency pricing; Effective lower bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Risk sharing in currency unions
    the migration channel
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Country-specific business cycle fluctuations are potentially very costly for member states of currency unions because they lack monetary autonomy. The actual costs depend on the extent to which consumption is shielded from these fluctuations and thus... mehr

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    Country-specific business cycle fluctuations are potentially very costly for member states of currency unions because they lack monetary autonomy. The actual costs depend on the extent to which consumption is shielded from these fluctuations and thus on the extent of risk sharing across member states. The literature to date has focused on financial and credit markets as well as on transfer schemes as channels of risk sharing. In this paper, we show how the standard approach to quantify risk sharing can be extended to account for migration as an additional channel of cross-country risk sharing. In theory, migration should play a key role when it comes to insulating per capita consumption from aggregate fluctuations, and our estimates show that it does so indeed for US states, but not for the members of the Euro area (EA). Consistent with these results, we also present survey evidence which shows that migration rates are about 20 times higher in the US. Lastly, we find, in line with earlier work, that risk sharing is generally much more limited across EA members.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235352
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8982 (2021)
    Schlagworte: risk sharing; currency unions; labour migration; migration rates; Euro area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The worst of both worlds
    fiscal policy and fixed exchange rates
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government... mehr

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    Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers output but does not alter the real exchange rate. A spending increase appreciates the exchange rate but does not alter output unless there is economic slack. We establish these results in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and provide empirical evidence on the basis of quarterly time-series data for 38 countries.

     

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    hdl: 10419/207313
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7922 (October 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Does austerity pay off?
    Erschienen: [2015]
    Verlag:  SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Frankfurt am Main

    We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series observations for sovereign... mehr

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    We ask whether cuts of government consumption lower or raise the sovereign default premium. To address this question, we set up a new data set for 38 emerging and advanced economies which contains quarterly time-series observations for sovereign default premia, government consumption, and output. We find that whether austerity pays off depends on a) initial conditions and b) the time-horizon under consideration. Spending cuts in times of fiscal stress raise default premia, but lower premia in benign times. These findings pertain to the short run. Austerity always pays off in the long run, but particularly so if initial conditions are bad.

     

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    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 77
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Exchange rate undershooting
    evidence and theory
    Erschienen: 19 March 2019
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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  21. News and uncertainty about COVID-19
    survey evidence and short-run economic impact
    Erschienen: 02 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16766
    Schlagworte: Consumer expectations; survey; Large shock; uncertainty; monetary policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten)
  22. Proximity to war
    the stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
    Erschienen: 06 April 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17185
    Schlagworte: Proximity Penalty; International Conflicts; Russia; Ukraine; war; Trade; MilitarySpillovers; Neighbors
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The exchange rate insulation puzzle
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2109
    Cambridge-INET working paper series ; 2021, 05
    Schlagworte: External shock; International spillovers; Exchange rate; Insulation; Monetary Policy; Dominant currency pricing; Effective lower bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Low passthrough from inflation expectations to income growth expectations: why people dislike inflation
    Erschienen: 04 June 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17356
    Schlagworte: inflation; wage-price spiral; Expectations; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)
  25. Stable genius?
    the macroeconomic impact of Trump
    Erschienen: 13 June 2019
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Zugang:
    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    LZ 161
    keine Fernleihe
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP13798
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten)