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  1. Forward guidance and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Banca d'Italia], [Rom]

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This Draft: April 19th, 2021
    Schlagworte: Forward Guidance; Information; Prognose; Zins; Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; USA; Expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys; communication; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Firms' Inflation Expectations
    New Evidence from France
    Autor*in: Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still... mehr

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    Standort:
    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less disagreement. Second, we characterize the extent and manner in which the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms' inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how the position of the respondent within the firm affects the provided responses. Fourth, because our survey measures firms' expectations about aggregate and firm-level wage growth along with their inflation expectations, we are able to show that expectations about wages are even more condensed than firms' inflation expectations and almost completely uncorrelated with them, indicating that firms perceive little link between price and wage inflation. Finally, an experimental treatment indicates that an exogenous change in firms' inflation expectations has no effect on their aggregate wage expectations

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29376
    Schlagworte: Unternehmen; Inflationserwartung; Frühindikator; Frankreich
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  3. Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. A confidence-driven liquidity trap steady state with deflation does not exist

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29496
    Schlagworte: Niedrigzinspolitik; Inflationserwartung; Liquiditätspräferenz; Forward Guidance; Neoklassische Synthese; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  4. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Autor*in: Hong, Gee Hee; Klepacz, Matthew; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series ; no. 21, 17 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Price-setting; menu cost; micro moments; sufficient statistics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with... mehr

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    We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/250514
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14853
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Fiscal multipliers in the COVID-19 recession
    Autor*in: Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; McCrory, Peter B.; Murphy, Daniel P.
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal... mehr

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    In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with widespread shelter-in-place ("lockdown") policies and the associated considerable limits on economic activity. Using detailed regional variation in economic conditions, lockdown policies, and U.S. government spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only in cities that were not subject to strong stay-at-home orders. We examine mechanisms that can account for our evidence and place our findings in the context of other recent evidence from microdata.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/250544
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14883
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; fiscal multiplier; stimulus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Zero lower bound on inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
    Erschienen: 16 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16729
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; non-rational beliefs; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27836
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Inflationssteuerung; Ankündigungseffekt; Konsumentenverhalten; USA
    Umfang: 47 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  9. Political polarization and expected economic outcomes
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree... mehr

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    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals' probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/227350
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13823
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 18 September 2020
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP15307
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Communication and the beliefs of economic agents
    Autor*in: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27800
    Schlagworte: Erwartungsbildung; Inflationserwartung
    Umfang: 48 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  12. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224046
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13604
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    W 1 (27693)
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27693
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Stabilisierungspolitik; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; CARES Act
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  14. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments?
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor-supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223582
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8510 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Price rigidity and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations
    Autor*in: Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 864 (enero 2020)
    Schlagworte: Preisrigidität; Input-Output-Analyse; Konjunktur; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Mehrsektoren-Modell; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Autor*in: Hong, Gee Hee; Klepacz, Matthew; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 875 (april 2020)
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Schock; Mikrofundierung; Querschnittsanalyse; Mikrodaten; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 878 (mayo 2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentlicher Auftrag; Systematischer Fehler; Dauer; Branche; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Multiplikator; Verdrängungseffekt; Inflation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy
    Autor*in: Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Murphy, Daniel P.
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27366
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Lockdown; Gesundheitspolitik; Finanzpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Wirtschaftswachstum
    Umfang: 24 Seiten
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  19. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government... mehr

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    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular; that is, it is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors. Second, relative to private expenditures its composition is biased. Third, procurement contracts are short-lived. Fourth, idiosyncratic variation dominates the fluctuation in spending. Last, government spending is concentrated in sectors with relatively sticky prices. Accounting for these facts within a stylized New Keynesian model offers new insights into the fiscal transmission mechanism: fiscal shocks hardly impact inflation, little crowding out of private expenditure exists, and the multiplier tends to be larger compared to a one-sector benchmark, aligning the model with the empirical evidence.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 15 (May 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Raising the inflation target
    how much extra room does it really give?
    Autor*in: L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 16 (June 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 26 (September 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. No firm is an island?
    how industry conditions shape firms' aggregate expectations
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Coibion, Olivier; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27317
    Schlagworte: Industrie; Konjunktur; Schock; Erwartungsbildung; Rationale Erwartung; Frankreich
    Umfang: 47 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  23. Measuring price selection in microdata
    it's not there
    Autor*in: Karadi, Peter; Schoenle, Raphael; Wursten, Jesse
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a... mehr

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    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a higher probability to identified monetary and credit shocks. We find that they do not, suggesting selection is absent. Instead, we detect state-dependent adjustment on the gross extensive margin. Our results are broadly consistent with second-generation state-dependent pricing models and sizable effects of monetary policy on the real economy.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289947527
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    hdl: 10419/237705
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2566 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: monetary non-neutrality; state-dependent pricing; identified credit and monetary policy shocks; price-gap proxy; scanner data; PPI microdata
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  24. Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods
    Autor*in: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Talavera, Oleksandr; Nam Hoai Vu
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper investigates the link between product quality and price setting for central processing units (CPUs). Using thousands of price quotes from a popular price-comparison website, we find that market fundamentals, such as the number of sellers,... mehr

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    This paper investigates the link between product quality and price setting for central processing units (CPUs). Using thousands of price quotes from a popular price-comparison website, we find that market fundamentals, such as the number of sellers, median price, share of convenient prices and level of seller stability, are important factors for explaining price stickiness and price dispersion. We demonstrate that calculations of price inflation require conditioning not only on CPU quality, but also on market fundamentals to ensure that CPU attributes are priced correctly. Failing to do so can result in an understatement of CPU price deflation in the sample period

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w28390
    Schlagworte: Produktqualität; Preismanagement; Digitale Plattform; Preisdifferenzierung; central processing unit; Prozessor
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  25. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232866
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14114
    Schlagworte: expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen