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  1. Forward guidance and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Banca d'Italia], [Rom]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This Draft: April 19th, 2021
    Schlagworte: Forward Guidance; Information; Prognose; Zins; Inflationserwartung; Privater Haushalt; USA; Expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys; communication; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Firms' Inflation Expectations
    New Evidence from France
    Autor*in: Savignac, Frédérique; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less disagreement. Second, we characterize the extent and manner in which the wording of questions matters for the measurement of firms' inflation expectations. Third, we document whether and how the position of the respondent within the firm affects the provided responses. Fourth, because our survey measures firms' expectations about aggregate and firm-level wage growth along with their inflation expectations, we are able to show that expectations about wages are even more condensed than firms' inflation expectations and almost completely uncorrelated with them, indicating that firms perceive little link between price and wage inflation. Finally, an experimental treatment indicates that an exogenous change in firms' inflation expectations has no effect on their aggregate wage expectations

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29376
    Schlagworte: Unternehmen; Inflationserwartung; Frühindikator; Frankreich
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  3. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Autor*in: Hong, Gee Hee; Klepacz, Matthew; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series ; no. 21, 17 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: Price-setting; menu cost; micro moments; sufficient statistics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27836
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Inflationssteuerung; Ankündigungseffekt; Konsumentenverhalten; USA
    Umfang: 47 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  5. Political polarization and expected economic outcomes
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: October 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree... mehr

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    We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the election, despite widespread publicly available polling information. Most Democrats are very confident in a Biden win while most Republicans are very confident in a Trump win. Second, respondents predict a fairly rosy economic scenario if their preferred candidate wins but a dire one if the other candidate wins. Since most respondents are confident in their favored outcome, unconditional forecasts are similar across parties despite the fact that underlying probability distributions and conditional forecasts are very different. Third, when presented with recent polling data, most voters change their views by little unless they are independent and/or have relatively weak priors about the outcome. Information that emphasizes the uncertainty in polling data has larger effects in terms of reducing polarization in expected probabilities over different electoral outcomes. Fourth, exogenous information that changes individuals' probability distribution over electoral outcomes also changes their unconditional forecasts in a corresponding manner. These changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227350
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13823
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 18 September 2020
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Standort:
    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP15307
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Communication and the beliefs of economic agents
    Autor*in: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27800
    Schlagworte: Erwartungsbildung; Inflationserwartung
    Umfang: 48 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  8. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224046
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 13604
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27693
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Stabilisierungspolitik; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Wirkungsanalyse; USA; CARES Act
    Umfang: 37 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  10. How did U.S. consumers use their stimulus payments?
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down... mehr

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    Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES Act affected their consumption, saving and labor-supply decisions. Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers, with only about 15 percent reporting that they mostly spent it. When providing a detailed breakdown of how they used their checks, individuals report having spent or planning to spend only around 40 percent of the total transfer on average. This relatively low rate of spending out of a one-time transfer is higher for those facing liquidity constraints, who are out of the labor force, who live in larger households, who are less educated and those who received smaller amounts. We find no meaningful effect on labor-supply decisions from these transfer payments, except for twenty percent of the unemployed who report that the stimulus payment made them search harder for a job.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223582
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8510 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Price rigidity and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations
    Autor*in: Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 864 (enero 2020)
    Schlagworte: Preisrigidität; Input-Output-Analyse; Konjunktur; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Mehrsektoren-Modell; Neoklassische Synthese; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The real effects of monetary shocks
    evidence from micro pricing moments
    Autor*in: Hong, Gee Hee; Klepacz, Matthew; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 875 (april 2020)
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Schock; Mikrofundierung; Querschnittsanalyse; Mikrodaten; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Banco Central de Chile, Santiago, Chile

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco Central de Chile ; no 878 (mayo 2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentlicher Auftrag; Systematischer Fehler; Dauer; Branche; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Multiplikator; Verdrängungseffekt; Inflation; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 93 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Big G
    Autor*in: Cox, Lydia; Müller, Gernot J.; Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government... mehr

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    "Big G" typically refers to aggregate government spending on a homogeneous good. In this paper, we open up this construct by analyzing the entire universe of procurement contracts of the US government and establish five facts. First, government spending is granular; that is, it is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors. Second, relative to private expenditures its composition is biased. Third, procurement contracts are short-lived. Fourth, idiosyncratic variation dominates the fluctuation in spending. Last, government spending is concentrated in sectors with relatively sticky prices. Accounting for these facts within a stylized New Keynesian model offers new insights into the fiscal transmission mechanism: fiscal shocks hardly impact inflation, little crowding out of private expenditure exists, and the multiplier tends to be larger compared to a one-sector benchmark, aligning the model with the empirical evidence.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 15 (May 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Raising the inflation target
    how much extra room does it really give?
    Autor*in: L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 16 (June 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Average inflation targeting and household expectations
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Knotek, Edward S.; Schoenle, Raphael
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 20, 26 (September 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. No firm is an island?
    how industry conditions shape firms' aggregate expectations
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Coibion, Olivier; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 27317
    Schlagworte: Industrie; Konjunktur; Schock; Erwartungsbildung; Rationale Erwartung; Frankreich
    Umfang: 47 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  18. Measuring price selection in microdata
    it's not there
    Autor*in: Karadi, Peter; Schoenle, Raphael; Wursten, Jesse
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a... mehr

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    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a higher probability to identified monetary and credit shocks. We find that they do not, suggesting selection is absent. Instead, we detect state-dependent adjustment on the gross extensive margin. Our results are broadly consistent with second-generation state-dependent pricing models and sizable effects of monetary policy on the real economy.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289947527
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237705
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2566 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: monetary non-neutrality; state-dependent pricing; identified credit and monetary policy shocks; price-gap proxy; scanner data; PPI microdata
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations: evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232866
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14114
    Schlagworte: expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289945578
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237696
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2557 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: Uncertainty; household spending; household finance; surveys; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: evidence from a new survey
    Autor*in: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique... mehr

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    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy. These results complement existing evidence on firms' inflation expectations from other countries and confirm that inattention to inflation and monetary policy is pervasive among U.S. firms as well.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/236409
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14378
    Schlagworte: expectations; surveys; anchoring; rational inattention
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms
    Evidence from a new survey
    Autor*in: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy. These results complement existing evidence on firms' inflation expectations from other countries and confirm that inattention to inflation and monetary policy is pervasive among U.S. firms as well

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w28836
    Schlagworte: Führungskräfte; Inflationserwartung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  23. No firm Is an Island?
    how industry conditions shape firms' expectations
    Autor*in: Andrade, Philippe; Coibion, Olivier; Gautier, Erwan; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, [Boston, MA]

    We study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industryspecific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms. We document an important new stylized fact. In response to industry-level shocks that have no... mehr

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    We study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industryspecific conditions using a survey of French manufacturing firms. We document an important new stylized fact. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms' aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with "island" models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. We then assess the extent to which these patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in which they reside. Finally, we extend the analysis to firms’ expectations of their own future price changes and document how these respond to both industry and aggregate variation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/238079
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: August 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 20, 17
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Fiscal policy and households' inflation expectations
    evidence from a randomized control trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates"monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates"monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

     
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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235275
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8905 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Steuerpolitik; Prognose; Privater Haushalt; Inflationserwartung; USA; expectations management; inflation expectations; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations
    Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
    Fernleihe:
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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
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    Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w28485
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Schulden; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Steuerpolitik; Prognose; Privater Haushalt; Inflationserwartung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers