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  1. Political shocks and inflation expectations
    evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supply-side effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favour an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260779
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9649 (2022)
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; economic experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Political shocks and inflation expectations
    evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supplyside effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favor an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251988
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 371 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; economic experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Ansiedlungen von Behörden in strukturschwachen Regionen
    Autor*in: Dörr, Luisa
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung (BBSR) im Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (BBR), Bonn

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    Standort:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Standort:
    Bundesverfassungsgericht, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    Online-Ressource
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    UB Weimar
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Beteiligt: Potrafke, Niklas (MitwirkendeR); Ragnitz, Joachim (MitwirkendeR)
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Stand: November 2021
    Schriftenreihe: BBSR-Online-Publikation ; Nr. 2022, 12
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Verwaltung; Standortwahl; Strukturschwache Region; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (93 Seiten), Diagramme, Karten
  4. Online versus offline
    which networks spur protests?
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas; Rösel, Felix
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Does social media or offline social cohesion overcome collective action problems more effectively when both types of networks are prevalent? We investigate non-violent protests against a place-based economic reform in Austria - a country where one in... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Does social media or offline social cohesion overcome collective action problems more effectively when both types of networks are prevalent? We investigate non-violent protests against a place-based economic reform in Austria - a country where one in two citizens uses Facebook but also one in two citizens is a member of a local club or civic organization. Our results show that protests spread more in places with strong offline networks as measured by real-life networks like village, folklore, or dialect clubs. We do not find that social media penetration intensifies local protests, a finding corroborated by microdata.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266004
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9969 (2022)
    Schlagworte: online and offline networks; social media; social cohesion; civic organizations; social capital; protest; economic reform; populism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations
    evidence from a global survey experiment
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden's election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266009
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9974 (2022)
    Schlagworte: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; survey experiment; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Ansiedlungen von Behörden in strukturschwachen Regionen
    Autor*in: Dörr, Luisa; Frei, Xenia; Harter, Anina; Mosler, Martin; Nitschke, Remo; Potrafke, Niklas; Ragnitz, Joachim; Schlepper, Marcel
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung (BBSR) im Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (BBR), Bonn

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Stand: November 2021
    Schriftenreihe: BBSR-Online-Publikation ; 2022, 12
    Schlagworte: Behörde; Regionalentwicklung; Ländlicher Raum; Verwaltung; Standortpolitik; Standortplanung; Strukturschwaches Gebiet
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Öffentliche Verwaltung; (stw)Standortwahl; (stw)Strukturschwache Region; (stw)Deutschland; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  7. Read my lips?
    taxes and elections
    Autor*in: Fuest, Clemens; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Research on many important questions on taxation is impeded by a lack of cross-nationally comparable data. We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Research on many important questions on taxation is impeded by a lack of cross-nationally comparable data. We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic Surveys from the OECD and 37,000 tax-related news from the IBFD archives collected by the IMF (Amaglobeli et al., 2018). Our dataset provides indicators on tax reforms for tax rates and tax bases, along with detailed sub-indices for six types of taxes (23 countries, 1960–2014). Relating tax reforms to the timing of elections, we provide first empirical evidence on electoral cycles in tax reforms on the national level. Our results show that politicians postpone tax rate increases to after elections. Examining heterogeneity across tax types, we find that electoral cycles are particularly pronounced for value added tax rates and personal income tax rates.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272954
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: August 2022
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 71 (2021, November)
    Schlagworte: Tax reforms; tax systems; tax rates; tax bases; data set; electoral cycles
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen