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  1. Late colonial antecedents of modern democracy
    Erschienen: July 2020
    Verlag:  Economic Research Southern Africa, [Cape Town]

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: ERSA working paper ; 824
    Schlagworte: Political regimes; Democratization; Colonialism
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten)
  2. Read my lips?
    taxes and elections
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic Surveys from the OECD and 37,000 tax-related news from the IBFD archives. The data set provides indicators... mehr

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    We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic Surveys from the OECD and 37,000 tax-related news from the IBFD archives. The data set provides indicators on tax reforms for tax rates and tax bases, along with detailed sub-indices for six types of taxes (23 countries, 1960–2014). Relating tax reforms to the timing of elections, we examine electoral cycles in tax reforms. Our results show that politicians postpone tax rate increases to after elections. A key innovation of our data set is the coverage of harmonized indices for six tax types. Examining heterogeneity across tax types, we find that electoral cycles are particularly pronounced for value added tax rates and personal income tax rates.

     

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    hdl: 10419/248946
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9401 (2021)
    Schlagworte: tax reforms; tax systems; tax rates; tax bases; data set; electoral cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Populists in power
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how populist governments influence political culture and economic outcomes. Some Austrian communities are governed by far-right populist mayors, directly elected by a majority of voters. We exploit close elections and find that the... mehr

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    We examine how populist governments influence political culture and economic outcomes. Some Austrian communities are governed by far-right populist mayors, directly elected by a majority of voters. We exploit close elections and find that the electorate becomes more polarized under populist mayors. However, polarization is not limited to politics. A major innovation of our study is using data on team members of local football teams. Our results show that diversity in local football teams decreases when populists are in power, indicating that populists infiltrate the civic society. When it comes to economic outcomes, migration and budget transparency decrease under populist governments.

     

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    hdl: 10419/245517
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9336 (2021)
    Schlagworte: populism; far-right politics; partisan politics; polarization; immigration; economic policy; local government; budget transparency
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Trade openness and income inequality
    new empirical evidence
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade... mehr

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    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.

     

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    hdl: 10419/245384
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9203 (2021)
    Schlagworte: trade openness; globalization; income inequality; instrumental variable estimation; panel econometrics; development levels; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Unconstitutional states of emergency
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft, [Hamburg]

    Nine out of ten modern constitutions contain explicit emergency provisions, describing who can call a state of emergency (and under which conditions) and the additional powers government enjoys under a state of emergency. As states of emergency... mehr

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    Nine out of ten modern constitutions contain explicit emergency provisions, describing who can call a state of emergency (and under which conditions) and the additional powers government enjoys under a state of emergency. As states of emergency typically allocate additional powers to the executive, they lend themselves easily to abuse and provide political incentives to declare emergencies. In this paper, we analyze under what conditions government behavior under a state of emergency deviates from constitutional provisions and a de jure/de facto gap thus emerges. Such a gap can be caused by the unlawful declaration of an emergency, the noncompliance with constitutional provisions in the course of an emergency, or the perpetuation of a state of emergency beyond the constitutionally defined length. Based on a novel dataset comprising 853 emergency declarations, 115 are identified as unlawful. We find that events caused by political turmoil are more likely to be followed by an unlawful emergency than natural disasters. Autocratic governments are more likely to renege against the constitution than democratic governments. Focusing on the 97 emergencies declared as reactions to domestic events, we also find that bicameral systems are more likely to suffer from unlawful states of emergencies than unicameral ones, as are countries hit by recessions, and countries where the constitution justifies emergencies under more numerous conditions.

     

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    hdl: 10419/237375
    Schriftenreihe: Institute of Law and Economics working paper series ; no. 51 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Constitutional political economy; constitutional emergency provisions; de jure/de facto gap; emergencies; public choice
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Academic freedom, institutions and productivity
    Erschienen: September 21, 2021
    Verlag:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    The issue of what explains differences in the wealth of nations is one of the most classic in economics. We propose de facto academic freedom as an explanatory variable. The main idea is that such freedom allows for the development of new useful... mehr

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    The issue of what explains differences in the wealth of nations is one of the most classic in economics. We propose de facto academic freedom as an explanatory variable. The main idea is that such freedom allows for the development of new useful knowledge through research unconstrained by powerholders in business and politics. Using a new global panel-data set, encompassing up to 127 countries over the period 1960-2015, we show that there is indeed a positive relationship between de facto academic freedom and both labor and total-factor productivity growth. However, this effect only appears as long as the quality of the legal system is sufficiently high. We suggest that this is because such institutional quality offers protection that stimulates entrepreneurs to make use of the new knowledge produced in academia in innovative activities, which in turn benefits productivity growth.

     

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    hdl: 10419/247887
    Schriftenreihe: IFN working paper ; no. 1405 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Institutions; Academic freedom; Freedom of speech; Productivity; Growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Do left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants?
    empirical evidence from the German states
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate whether left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants. The data is based on salaries of civil servants in the German states. Since a reform in 2006, German state governments are allowed to design salaries of civil... mehr

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    We investigate whether left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants. The data is based on salaries of civil servants in the German states. Since a reform in 2006, German state governments are allowed to design salaries of civil servants. We employ encompassing data for pay levels and professions including judges, professors, policemen, and administrators and distinguish between levels of operating experiences. We use six wage inequality measures comparing salaries across pay levels and operating experiences. The results do not suggest that left-wing governments were more active in decreasing wage inequality among civil servants than center or right-wing governments. Cabinet members are civil servants themselves and decide on their own salaries: government ideology is also not shown to predict salaries of cabinet members. Because left-wing governments are perceived as taking action against income and wage inequality, future research should employ data from other federal states such as the United States to examine how government ideology influences salaries of civil servants.

     

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    hdl: 10419/229541
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8723 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Green governments
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how Green governments influence macroeconomic, education, and environmental outcomes. Our empirical strategy exploits that the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan gave rise to an unanticipated change in government in the German state... mehr

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    We examine how Green governments influence macroeconomic, education, and environmental outcomes. Our empirical strategy exploits that the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan gave rise to an unanticipated change in government in the German state Baden-Wuerttemberg in 2011. The incumbent rightwing government was replaced by a leftwing government led by the Green party. We use the synthetic control method to select control states against which Baden-Wuerttemberg’s outcomes can be compared. The results do not suggest that the Green government influenced macroeconomic outcomes. The Green government implemented education policies that caused comprehensive schools to become larger. We find no evidence that the Green government influenced CO2 emissions, particulate matter emissions, or increased energy usage from renewable energies overall. An intriguing result is that the share of wind power usage decreased relative to the estimated counterfactual. Intra-ecological conflicts and realities in public office are likely to have prevented the Green government from implementing drastic policy changes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/229544
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8726 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Fiskalregeln und Wirtschaftswachstum
    wirtschaftspolitische Einschätzungen nach Erfolgen durch restriktive Fiskalregeln und expansiven Maßnahmen während der Coronakrise : Forschungsbericht im Auftrag der Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft
    Erschienen: April 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    Die Coronakrise verlangt gegenwärtig expansive Fiskalpolitik. Diese Strategie ist unbestritten. Deutschland verfügt über die nötigen Spielräume für diese expansive Fiskalpolitik – nicht zuletzt deshalb, weil Fiskalregeln wie die deutsche... mehr

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    Die Coronakrise verlangt gegenwärtig expansive Fiskalpolitik. Diese Strategie ist unbestritten. Deutschland verfügt über die nötigen Spielräume für diese expansive Fiskalpolitik – nicht zuletzt deshalb, weil Fiskalregeln wie die deutsche Schuldenbremse den Grundstein für eine nachhaltige Fiskalpolitik gelegt haben. Diese Spielräume können nun zur Linderung der gegenwärtigen Rezession genutzt werden. Die realwirtschaftlichen Effekte von Fiskalregeln werden intensiv diskutiert. Zwei Theorien stehen sich gegenüber. Zum einen können Fiskalregeln durch die Reduktion der Staatsverschuldung und der Schaffung eines nachhaltigen und stabilen Staatshaushaltes positive Wachstumseffekte auslösen. Führen Fiskalregeln allerdings zu einer Reduktion öffentlicher Investitionen, so wird das Wirtschaftswachstum gebremst. Unsere neue Studie zeigt, dass Fiskalregeln das Wirtschaftswachstum nicht gebremst haben – sofern sie in der Verfassung verankert waren. Dies gilt sowohl für nationale als auch für regionale Fiskalregeln. Deutschland muss nach Bewältigen der Coronakrise langfristig zu einer nachhaltigen Fiskalpolitik im Rahmen der Schuldenbremse zurückkehren. Die Coronakrise zeigt, wie unvermittelt Krisen auftreten können, die bei unzureichender Vorsorge nicht zu bewältigen wären. Auch überdeckt die bis vor Kurzem noch sehr positive Haushaltslage der Bundesrepublik die Tatsache, dass es im Zuge des demografischen Wandels in naher Zukunft zu einer drastischen Veränderung des Verhältnisses zwischen Beschäftigten und Rentnern kommen wird. Diese Veränderung wird den Bundeshaushalt vor große Herausforderungen stellen. The corona crisis currently requires expansionary fiscal policy. This strategy is undisputed. Germany has the necessary scope for this expansionary fiscal policy because fiscal rules such as the German debt have laid the foundation for a sustainable budget policy. These margins can now be used to alleviate the current recession. The real economic effects of fiscal rules are intensively discussed. On the one hand, fiscal rules may trigger positive growth effects by reducing public debt and creating a sustainable and stable government budget. On the other hand, if fiscal rules lead to a reduction in public investment, economic growth will be slowed down. Our new study shows that fiscal rules have not declined economic growth - provided that they were adopted in the constitution. This applies to both national and regional fiscal rules. Germany must return to a sustainable long-term fiscal policy in compliance with the debt brake once the crisis has been overcome. The corona crisis illustrates how abrupt crises can occur that would not be manageable from a fiscal policy point of view if inadequate provision was made. The positive budgetary situation of the past years also hides the fact that the demographic change will lead to a drastic change in the relationship between employees and pensioners in the near future. This change will pose major challenges for the federal budget.

     

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    Sprache: Deutsch
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    ISBN: 9783959420808
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223223
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 110 (2020)
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Coping-Strategie; Finanzpolitik; Haushaltskonsolidierung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Modellrechnungen für den fünften Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF
    Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen : Endbericht
    Erschienen: März 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    Die vorliegende Studie dient zur Vorbereitung des Fünften Tragfähigkeitsberichts des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen. Sie wurde vom ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. in Kooperation mit der... mehr

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    Die vorliegende Studie dient zur Vorbereitung des Fünften Tragfähigkeitsberichts des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen. Sie wurde vom ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. in Kooperation mit der Ruhr-Universität Bochum erstellt. Ihre Aufgabe ist es, aus heutiger Sicht absehbare Effekte des demographischen Wandels mit Hilfe illustrativer Modellrechnungen abzuschätzen und daraus resultierende Risiken für die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland aufzuzeigen. Die Modellrechnungen beziehen sich auf öffentliche Ausgaben, deren zukünftige Entwicklung stark vom demographischen Wandel beeinflusst wird. Explizit erfasst werden Ausgaben für die Alterssicherung (gesetzliche Rentenversicherung, Beamtenversorgung), für Gesundheit und Pflege (gesetzliche Krankenversicherung, soziale Pflegeversicherung, Beihilfe für Beamte und ihre Angehörigen), für Arbeitslose (Arbeitslosenversicherung, sonstige Ausgaben der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Grundsicherung für Arbeitsuchende) sowie für Bildung und Familien (öffentliche Bildungsausgaben, Kerninstrumente des Familienleistungsausgleichs).[...] This study will be used to prepare the Fifth Sustainability Report of the German Federal Ministry of Finance. It has been carried out by the Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in cooperation with the Ruhr University Bochum. Its main task is to provide simulations which describe the consequences of demographic change in Germany and show the resulting long-term risks for the sustainability of German public finances. The simulations relate to public expenditure that must be expected to be particularly responsive to demographic change. They explicitly cover expenditure on old-age provision, health and longterm care, unemployment, child care and education as well as financial benefits for families. Based on the current legal framework (as of 30 June 2019), expenditure on any of these budget items is projected until 2060. The projections are based on most recent population projections prepared by the Federal Statistical Office and a macro-economic background scenario. Recent medium-term forecasts of the German Federal Government (as of Spring 2019) regarding macroeconomic trends and public finances in the period until 2023 are also taken into account. The results are assessed using indicators for the sustainability of public finances which have been developed by the EU Economic Policy Committee. [...]

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Deutsch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783959420815
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223224
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 111 (2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Finanzen; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Wirtschaftsforschung; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 199 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Modellrechnungen für den fünften Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF
    Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen : Kurzbericht
    Erschienen: März 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    Zur Vorbereitung seines Fünften Tragfähigkeitsberichts hat das Bundesministerium der Finanzen das ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. in Kooperation mit der Ruhr-Universität Bochum mit einer Studie... mehr

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    Zur Vorbereitung seines Fünften Tragfähigkeitsberichts hat das Bundesministerium der Finanzen das ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. in Kooperation mit der Ruhr-Universität Bochum mit einer Studie beauftragt. Ihre Aufgabe ist es, aus heutiger Sicht absehbare Effekte des demographischen Wandels mit Hilfe illustrativer Modellrechnungen abzuschätzen und daraus resultierende Risiken für die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland aufzuzeigen. Die Modellrechnungen beziehen sich auf öffentliche Ausgaben, deren zukünftige Entwicklung stark vom demographischen Wandel beeinflusst wird. Explizit erfasst werden Ausgaben für die Alterssicherung (gesetzliche Rentenversicherung, Beamtenversorgung), für Gesundheit und Pflege (gesetzliche Krankenversicherung, soziale Pflegeversicherung, Beihilfe für Beamte und ihre Angehörigen), für Arbeitslose (Arbeitslosenversicherung, sonstige Ausgaben der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Grundsicherung für Arbeitsuchende) sowie für Bildung und Familien (öffentliche Bildungsausgaben, Kerninstrumente des Familienleistungsausgleichs). [...]

     

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    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783959420822
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223225
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 112 (2020)
    Schlagworte: Öffentliche Finanzen; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Wirtschaftsforschung; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. National defense, economic growth and the role of political institutions
    Autor*in: Blum, Johannes
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Beteiligt: Potrafke, Niklas (AkademischeR BetreuerIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
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    Dissertation, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 2020

  13. Experts and epidemics
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Do experts adjust their policy recommendations when the facts change? We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment among 1,224 economic experts across 109 countries that includes two treatments. The first treatment is the geographic and temporal... mehr

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    Do experts adjust their policy recommendations when the facts change? We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment among 1,224 economic experts across 109 countries that includes two treatments. The first treatment is the geographic and temporal variation in the initial spread of Covid-19 during March 2020, which we use as a natural experiment. The second is a randomly assigned information treatment that informs experts about the past macroeconomic performance of their country. We find that greater exposure to Covid-19 decreases the probability to recommend contractionary fiscal policies. A better macroeconomic performance increases the probability to implement contractionary policies and reduces the exposure effect to Covid-19. While our results show that experts adjust their policy recommendations to changing environments, sentiment analyses of open-ended questions asked after the treatment suggest that these adjustments are caused by Bayesian information updating and not by a change in preferences.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226258
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8556 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Protectionism and economic growth
    causal evidence from the first era of globalization
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a... mehr

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    We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. Tariffs increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy in the short-run by increasing government expenditure.

     

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    hdl: 10419/229577
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8759 (2020)
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  15. This time is different?
    on the use of emergency measures during the corona pandemic
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  Universität Hamburg, Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft, [Hamburg]

    The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused thousands to die and millions to lose their jobs, it has also prompted more governments to simultaneously to declare a state of emergency than ever before. States of emergency usually imply the extension of... mehr

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    The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused thousands to die and millions to lose their jobs, it has also prompted more governments to simultaneously to declare a state of emergency than ever before. States of emergency usually imply the extension of executive powers that diminishes the powers of other branches of government, as well as to the civil liberties of individuals. Here, we analyze whether the use of emergency provisions during the COVID-19 pandemic is an exception, and find that this is not the case. In fact, some measures point at long-term dangers to the rule of law and democracy.

     

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    hdl: 10419/221822
    Schriftenreihe: Institute of Law and Economics working paper series ; no. 36 (2020)
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  16. General or central government?
    empirical evidence on political cycles in budget composition using new data for OECD countries
    Erschienen: February 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new... mehr

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    Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new data for general and central government over the period 1995-2016, I reexamine political cycles in budget composition. The results suggest that, both at the general and central government level, leftwing governments spent more on education and less on public services than rightwing governments. Defense expenditure was somewhat lower under leftwing than rightwing governments and in election years; especially in federal states. Effects of government ideology on the individual expenditure categories are larger at the central than general government level. Scholars need to re-examine results on ideology-induced effects that have been derived from general government data where central government data should have been used.

     

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    hdl: 10419/214235
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 322 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  17. Rewarding conservative politicians?
    evidence from voting on same-sex marriage
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine whether voters rewarded conservative politicians who were voting in favor of same-sex marriage. Data is based on a roll-call vote in the German national parliament (Bundestag) in June 2017. This roll-call vote drastically influenced the... mehr

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    We examine whether voters rewarded conservative politicians who were voting in favor of same-sex marriage. Data is based on a roll-call vote in the German national parliament (Bundestag) in June 2017. This roll-call vote drastically influenced the public discourse about the social political platform of the conservative party. National elections took place in September 2017. The results show that the vote share of conservative politicians who voted in favor of same-sex marriage was around 1.29 percentage points (around 0.33 standard deviations of the change in the first vote share) higher than the vote share of conservative politicians who did not vote in favor of same-sex marriage. Voters were seeking for outcomes other than economic outcomes to evaluate politicians' performance in office.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235244
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 355 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Rewarding and punishing politicians; conservative politicians; roll-call votes; same-sex marriage; economic voting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Political institutions and academic freedom: evidence from across the world
    Erschienen: May 19, 2021
    Verlag:  Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

    There is scant systematic empirical evidence on what explains variation in academic freedom. Making use of a new indicator and panel data covering 64 countries 1960-2017, we investigate how de facto academic freedom is affected by, in particular,... mehr

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    There is scant systematic empirical evidence on what explains variation in academic freedom. Making use of a new indicator and panel data covering 64 countries 1960-2017, we investigate how de facto academic freedom is affected by, in particular, political institutions. We find that moving to electoral democracy is positive, as is moving to electoral autocracy from other autocratic systems, suggesting the importance of elections. Communism has a strongly detrimental effect. Legislatures that are bicameral are associated with more academic freedom, while legislatures that become more diverse and more ideologically to the right also seem to stimulate this type of freedom. Presidentialism and coups do not appear to matter much, while more proportional electoral systems strengthen academic freedom. More judicial accountability stimulates academic freedom, and richer countries experience more of it. The results suggest that the political sphere exerts a clear but complex influence on the degree to which scholarly activities are free.

     

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    hdl: 10419/240531
    Schriftenreihe: IFN working paper ; no. 1388 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Academic freedom; Politics; Democracy; Institutions; Ideology
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Covid-19 vaccination
    the role of crisis experience
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose that crisis experience influences preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination and the speed of vaccination during the initial phase when vaccines became available. We use macro and micro data to empirically investigate our theory and... mehr

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    We propose that crisis experience influences preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination and the speed of vaccination during the initial phase when vaccines became available. We use macro and micro data to empirically investigate our theory and introduce a novel crisis experience index. Evidence based on macro data shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in our new crisis experience index gives rise to around 10 additional administered vaccine doses per 100 citizens (around one standard deviation). Our micro-level analysis provides evidence for a microfoundation of the macro-level results, indicating that the crisis history of countries is positively correlated with preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination. Disentangling socialization effects and experience effects, we find that citizens who have experienced crises during their impressionable years (ages 18–25) have stronger preferences for being vaccinated against COVID-19 than others.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235466
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9096 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19 vaccination; crisis experience; crisis management; experience effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

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    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/232430
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8833 (2021)
    Schlagworte: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; Randomized Controlled Trial; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Collective memories on the 2010 European debt crisis
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine whether collective memories on the aid&reform programs chosen to handle the 2010 European debt crisis differ between citizens from borrower and lender countries. We use new international survey data for non-experts and experts in member... mehr

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    We examine whether collective memories on the aid&reform programs chosen to handle the 2010 European debt crisis differ between citizens from borrower and lender countries. We use new international survey data for non-experts and experts in member countries of the euro area. The results show that non-experts from borrower and lender countries remember aspects of the programs in different manners; indicating biases for assessments of how the crisis outcomes are perceived in borrower and lender countries. Nation-serving biases may well explain if the European debt crisis has reduced the sense of belonging rather than bringing European citizens closer together.

     

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    hdl: 10419/232422
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8825 (2021)
    Schlagworte: collective memories; European debt crisis; nation-serving biases; aid&reform programmes; experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Trade openness and income inequality
    new empirical evidence
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade... mehr

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    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.

     

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    hdl: 10419/235942
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 359 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Trade openness; globalization; income inequality; instrumental variable estimation; panel econometrics; development levels; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

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    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/233801
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 56 (2021, January)
    Schlagworte: US Presidential Elections; Politicians; Economic Expectations; EconomicExperts; Randomized Controlled Trial; Causal Inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Überprüfung der Einwohnergewichtung im System des kommunalen Finanzausgleichs in Nordrhein-Westfalen
    Studie im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Heimat, Kommunales, Bau und Gleichstellung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen
    Erschienen: März 2019
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    In der Studie erfolgte eine umfassende Prüfung der Ausgestaltung der Hauptansatz-staffel für Gemeindeausgaben (§ 8 Abs. 3 Gemeindefinanzierungsgesetz) im Rahmen des horizontalen Finanzausgleichs in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Die Hauptansatzstaffel... mehr

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    In der Studie erfolgte eine umfassende Prüfung der Ausgestaltung der Hauptansatz-staffel für Gemeindeausgaben (§ 8 Abs. 3 Gemeindefinanzierungsgesetz) im Rahmen des horizontalen Finanzausgleichs in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Die Hauptansatzstaffel postuliert einen nichtlinearen Zusammenhang zwischen Einwohnerzahl und Finanz-bedarf und mündet gemeinsam mit den Bedarfsansätzen (Demografie, Schüler, Soziallasten, Zentralität und Fläche) in der Bestimmung der Ausgangsmesszahl als Kern der Bedarfsermittlung im horizontalen Finanzausgleich. Die Einwohnergewichtung in der Hauptansatzstaffel wurde mittels einer Auseinandersetzung mit der finanzwissenschaftlichen Theorie sowie einer empirischen Analyse überprüft. In der empirischen Analyse wurden verschiedene Schätzverfahren und alternative Indikatoren betrachtet und die daraus resultierenden Verteilungswirkungen im System des kommunalen Finanzausgleichs simuliert.

     

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    Sprache: Deutsch
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    ISBN: 9783959420709
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213574
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 105 (2019)
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  25. Corruption and economic growth
    new empirical evidence
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not... mehr

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    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not comparable over time. The CPI is comparable over time since the year 2012. We employ new data for 175 countries over the period 2012-2018 and re-examine the nexus between corruption and economic growth. The cumulative long-run effect of corruption on growth is that real per capita GDP decreased by around 17% when the reversed CPI increased by one standard deviation. The effect of corruption on economic growth is especially pronounced in autocracies and transmits to growth by decreasing FDI and increasing inflation.

     

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    hdl: 10419/207207
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7816 (August 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen