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  1. Assessing the economic impacts of climate change
    an updated CGE point of view
    Autor*in: Bosello, Francesco; Eboli, Fabio; Pierfederici, Roberta
    Erschienen: 2012
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (2012,2)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem. -- Computable General Equilibrium Modeling ; Impact Assessment ; Climate Change

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/59728
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 02.2012
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 26 S., 673,26 KB), graph. Darst.
  2. Regional low-emission pathways from global models
    Autor*in: Soest, Heleen van; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bertram, Christoph; Drouet, Laurent; Jewell, Jessica; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar G.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Tavoni, Massimo; Elzen, Michel G. J. den; Awasthy, Aayushi; Calvin, Katherine; Capros, Pantelis; Clarke, Leon; Colombier, Michel; Teng, Fei; Garg, Amit; Guedes, Fernanda; Imperio, Mariana; Kainuma, Mikiko; Jiang, Kejun; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Kolp, Peter; Krey, Volker; Kitous, Alban; Leonidas, Paroussos; Lucena, André F. P.; Masui, Toshihiko; Nogueira, Larissa; Pierfederici, Roberta; Saveyn, Bert; Schaeffer, Roberto; Fu, Sha; Shoai, Bianka; Shukla, Pryadarshi R.; Spencer, Thomas; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Waisman, Henri
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (110)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/130291
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 110.2015
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen