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  1. Building uncertainty into the adaptation cost estimation in integrated assessment models
    Autor*in: Markandya, Anil; De Cian, Enrica; Drouet, Laurent; Polanco-Martìnez, Josué M.; Bosello, Francesco
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily generalizable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction,... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (21)
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily generalizable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction, region-specific factor by extracting damage distribution means and variances from an ensemble of socio economic and climate change scenarios. This risk premium quantifies what society would be willing to pay to insure against the uncertainty of the damages, and it can be considered an add-up to the standard “average damage”. Our computations show the addition to be significant, but highly sensitive to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Once the climate change damage function incorporates the risk premium into the model, results show a substantial increase in both mitigation and adaptation, reflecting a more conservative attitude by the social planner. Interestingly, adaptation is stimulated more than mitigation in the first half of the century, while the situation reverses afterwards. Over the century, the risk premium correction fosters more mitigation, which doubles, than adaptation, which rises by about 80%.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/142295
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 21
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Regional low-emission pathways from global models
    Autor*in: Soest, Heleen van; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Bertram, Christoph; Drouet, Laurent; Jewell, Jessica; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar G.; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Tavoni, Massimo; Elzen, Michel G. J. den; Awasthy, Aayushi; Calvin, Katherine; Capros, Pantelis; Clarke, Leon; Colombier, Michel; Teng, Fei; Garg, Amit; Guedes, Fernanda; Imperio, Mariana; Kainuma, Mikiko; Jiang, Kejun; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Kolp, Peter; Krey, Volker; Kitous, Alban; Leonidas, Paroussos; Lucena, André F. P.; Masui, Toshihiko; Nogueira, Larissa; Pierfederici, Roberta; Saveyn, Bert; Schaeffer, Roberto; Fu, Sha; Shoai, Bianka; Shukla, Pryadarshi R.; Spencer, Thomas; Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Waisman, Henri
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (110)
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

     
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    hdl: 10419/130291
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 110.2015
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Assessing the implications of a global net-zero transition for developing Asia
    insights from integrated assessment modeling
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Drouet, Laurent; Raitzer, David A.; Pradhananga, Manisha
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 496
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2°C. Under an efficient approach to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, the power sector would almost fully decarbonize by mid-century, and emissions from land use would strongly fall. Although the climate has a lagged response to emissions reductions, climate benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 3, with gains concentrated in the lowest-income subregions of Asia. Air quality would also improve, saving about 0.35 million lives in the region by 2050. Including these co-benefits raises the benefit-cost ratio for Asia under ambitious decarbonization to 5. Energy-related employment also rises during the transition. However, appropriate policies are needed to address potential effects on disadvantaged groups.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 709 (December 2023)
    Schlagworte: climate change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; energy; land use; net-zero; NDCs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The WITCH 2016 model
    documentation and implementation of the shared socioeconomic pathways
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Bevione, Michela; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Carrara, Samuel; De Cian, Enrica; De Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier; Longden, Tom; Malpede, Maurizio; Marangoni, Giacomo; Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo; Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Havlik, Petr
    Erschienen: June 17, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (42)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/142316
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 42
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. A simple framework for climate-change policy under model uncertainty
    Autor*in: Athanasoglou, Stergios; Bosetti, Valentina; Drouet, Laurent
    Erschienen: November 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of climate-change policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a "satisficing", as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (13)
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    We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of climate-change policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a "satisficing", as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-à-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of climate-change policy making, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the value function we propose is an analogue of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply this decision criterion to probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. The main result that emerges is the superiority of "medium" carbon budgets in line with a 3°C target (i.e., 2000-3000 GtCO2) in preventing large future consumption losses with high probability. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably, and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162255
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 13
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Challenges and opportunities for integrated modeling of climate engineering
    Autor*in: Tavoni, Massimo; Bosetti, Valentina; Shayegh, Soheil; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Fuß, Sabine; Goeschl, Timo; Guivarch, Celine; Lontzek, Thomas; Manoussi, Vassiliki; Moreno Cruz, Juan; Muri, Helene; Quaas, Martin F.; Rickels, Wilfried
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (2017,38)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the implementation of these ambitious targets particularly challenging. Climate engineering - both through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) - is currently discussed to potentially complement mitigation and adaptation. Results from integrated assessment models already suggest a significant role for some forms of climate engineering in achieving stringent climate objectives1. However, these estimates and their underlying assumptions are uncertain and currently heavily debated2-4. By reviewing the existing literature and reporting the views of experts, we identify research gaps and priorities for improving the integrated assessment of climate engineering. Results point to differentiated roles of CDR and SRM as complementary strategies to the traditional ones, as well as diverse challenges for an adequate representation in integrated assessment models. We identify potential synergies for model development which can help better represent mitigation and adaptation challenges, as well as climate engineering.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/177232
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 38
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen