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  1. Energy intensity convergence and its long-run minimum
    Autor*in: De Cian, Enrica; Emmerling, Johannes; Malpede, Maurizio
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  GREEN, Centre for Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy and Networks, Milano, Italy

    SARS-CoV-2 uses human beings as means of transport. In addition to the generProjections of energy intensity are important for the assessment of future energy demand, future emission pathways, and the costs of climate policies. We estimate and... mehr

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    SARS-CoV-2 uses human beings as means of transport. In addition to the generProjections of energy intensity are important for the assessment of future energy demand, future emission pathways, and the costs of climate policies. We estimate and simulate energy intensity based on a conditional convergence approach, and show how based on the results the long-run minimum of energy intensity attainable can be estimated. We consider education, urbanization, and institutional factors and find them to positively impact energy intensity improvements. We link the estimated econometric models to an iterative projection model, resulting in a finite long-term lower limit of energy intensity of GDP to be around 0.35MJ/$ at the global level in most SSPs. Yet, by 2100, we estimated that energy intensity below one is hard to achieve based on historical patterns. By 2100, the projected energy intensities are in the range of 1MJ/$ at the global level. These results show that scenarios such as the ones used in the SR15 can be rationalized based on empirically founded projections, and that in particular the very low energy demand scenarios can be considered feasible on empirical grounds. The speed at which such ow values are achievable is however the big question and achieving them will require substantially going beyond historical technical change patterns.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235125
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Università Bocconi, GREEN, Centre for Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy and Networks ; number 13 (April 2021)
    Schlagworte: Energy Intensity; Energy Demand; Convergence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. On differentiated carbon prices and discount rates
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Dennig, Francis; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount... mehr

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    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount rates, we show that efficient carbon prices must be different across countries. This is a consequence of Hotelling's familiar argument on the price of a non-renewable resource: it must grow at the rate of the next best use of marginal funds, which is equal to the country's discount rate. If different countries discount at different rates, their carbon prices ought to grow at different rates as well. If they grow at different rates, they can't be the same all of the time, as first-best carbon prices are. The computational climate policy literature has so far avoided this conclusion by altering time preferences in a country specific way through time-varying Negishi weights. We show that the use of such weights causes inefficient policy prescriptions and, furthermore, has the particularly undesirable consequence of incorrectly discounting future consumption more in countries with high growth rates. The existence of inefficiencies in the savings process - causing differences in discount rates - is well-known and should be acknowledged head on in climate policy analysis. Doing so results in global mitigation policy with carbon price paths for different countries growing (efficiently) at different rates.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245424
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9243 (2021)
    Schlagworte: carbon price; Hotelling rule; efficient climate policy; Negishi weights; integrated assessment models; discounting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  3. Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist?
    prognosis from 21st century pandemics
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Furceri, Davide; Líbano Monteiro, Francisco; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan David; Pizzuto, Pietro; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led... mehr

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    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513582351
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 119
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemics; sustainability; poverty; climate; inequality; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The WITCH 2016 model
    documentation and implementation of the shared socioeconomic pathways
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Bevione, Michela; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Carrara, Samuel; De Cian, Enrica; De Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier; Longden, Tom; Malpede, Maurizio; Marangoni, Giacomo; Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo; Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Havlik, Petr
    Erschienen: June 17, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a... mehr

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    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.

     
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    hdl: 10419/142316
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 42
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Inequality and the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: July 1, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and... mehr

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    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and an equity weighted Social Cost of Carbon estimate as special cases. We also present a methodology to incorporate more fine grained regional resolutions of income and damage distributions than typically found in integrated assessment models. Finally, we present quantitative estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon that use our disentangling of different types of inequality aversion. We use two integrated assessment models (FUND and RICE) for our numerical exercise to get more robust findings. Our results suggest that inequality considerations lead to a higher (lower) SCC values in high (low) income regions relative to an efficiency based approach, but that the effect is less strong than found in previous studies that use equity weighting. Our central estimate is that the Social Cost of Carbon increases roughly by a factor of 2.5 from a US perspective when our disentangled equity weighting approach is used.

     
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    hdl: 10419/149527
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 54
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Climate engineering under deep uncertainty and heterogeneity
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Manoussi, Vassiliki; Xepapadeas, Anastasios
    Erschienen: July 25, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Climate Engineering, and in particular Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has become a widely discussed climate policy option to study in recent years. However, its potentially strategic nature and unforeseen side effects provide major policy and... mehr

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    Climate Engineering, and in particular Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has become a widely discussed climate policy option to study in recent years. However, its potentially strategic nature and unforeseen side effects provide major policy and scientific challenges. We study the role of the SRM implementation and its strategic dimension in a model with two heterogeneous countries with the notable feature of model misspecification on the impacts from SRM. We find that deep uncertainty leads to a reduction in SRM deployment both under cooperation and strategic behavior, which is a more relevant issue if countries act strategically. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity in impacts from SRM has an asymmetric effect on the optimal policy and could typically lead to unilateral SRM implementation. We also consider heterogeneous degrees of ambiguity aversion, in which case the more confident country only will use SRM.

     
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    hdl: 10419/149525
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 52
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Sharing of climate risks across world regions
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Uncertainty is prevalent in the context of climate change impacts. Moreover, the distribution across the globe is not uniform. We analyze how climate risks could be reduced via an insurance scheme at the global scale across regions and quantify the... mehr

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    Uncertainty is prevalent in the context of climate change impacts. Moreover, the distribution across the globe is not uniform. We analyze how climate risks could be reduced via an insurance scheme at the global scale across regions and quantify the potential welfare gains from such a scheme. Starting from the standard welfare analysis in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which assumes no risk sharing across region, we introduce global risk sharing via a market for state-dependent Arrow-Debreu securities. We show that this allows equalizing relative consumption differences between states of the world across regions. We estimate that such risk sharing scheme of climate risks could lead to welfare gains reducing the global costs of climate change by up to one third, while the amount of transfers required is substantial. This provides arguments for considering risk sharing in IAMs, but also for potentially welfare increasing negotiations about sharing risks of climate change at the global level.

     
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    hdl: 10419/107716
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 78.2014
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (20 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. Uncertainty and natural resources
    prudence facing doomsday
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper studies the optimal extraction of a non-renewable resource under uncertainty using a discrete-time approach in the spirit of the literature on precautionary savings. We find that boundedness of the utility function, in particular the... mehr

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    This paper studies the optimal extraction of a non-renewable resource under uncertainty using a discrete-time approach in the spirit of the literature on precautionary savings. We find that boundedness of the utility function, in particular the assumption about U(0), gives very different results in the two settings which are often considered as equivalent. For a bounded utility function, we show that in a standard two-period setting, prudence is no longer sufficient to ensure a more conservationist extraction policy than under certainty. If on the other hand we increase the number of periods to infinity, we find that prudence is not anymore not anymore necessary to induce a more conservationist extraction policy and risk aversion is sufficient. These results highlight the importance of the specification of the utility function and its behavior at the point of origin.

     
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    hdl: 10419/113941
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 49.2015
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (15 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: July 2016
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and... mehr

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    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and an equity weighted Social Cost of Carbon estimate as special cases. We also present a methodology to incorporate more fine grained regional resolutions of income and damage distributions than typically found in integrated assessment models. Finally, we present quantitative estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon that use our disentangling of different types of inequality aversion. We use two integrated assessment models (FUND and RICE) for our numerical exercise to get more robust findings. Our results suggest that inequality considerations lead to a higher (lower) SCC values in high (low) income regions relative to an efficiency based approach, but that the effect is less strong than found in previous studies that use equity weighting. Our central estimate is that the Social Cost of Carbon increases roughly by a factor of 2.5 from a US perspective when our disentangled equity weighting approach is used.

     
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    hdl: 10419/145024
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 5989
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Challenges and opportunities for integrated modeling of climate engineering
    Autor*in: Tavoni, Massimo; Bosetti, Valentina; Shayegh, Soheil; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Fuß, Sabine; Goeschl, Timo; Guivarch, Celine; Lontzek, Thomas; Manoussi, Vassiliki; Moreno Cruz, Juan; Muri, Helene; Quaas, Martin F.; Rickels, Wilfried
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the... mehr

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    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the implementation of these ambitious targets particularly challenging. Climate engineering - both through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) - is currently discussed to potentially complement mitigation and adaptation. Results from integrated assessment models already suggest a significant role for some forms of climate engineering in achieving stringent climate objectives1. However, these estimates and their underlying assumptions are uncertain and currently heavily debated2-4. By reviewing the existing literature and reporting the views of experts, we identify research gaps and priorities for improving the integrated assessment of climate engineering. Results point to differentiated roles of CDR and SRM as complementary strategies to the traditional ones, as well as diverse challenges for an adequate representation in integrated assessment models. We identify potential synergies for model development which can help better represent mitigation and adaptation challenges, as well as climate engineering.

     
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    hdl: 10419/177232
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 38
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia
    Autor*in: Reis, Lara Aleluia; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David
    Erschienen: December 2016
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious... mehr

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    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2°C) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2°C scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2°C scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2°C scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region - if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.

     
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    hdl: 10419/169335
    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 504 (December 2016)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Welfare as simple(x) equity equivalents
    Autor*in: Berger, Loïc; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: March 9, 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    Inequity plays a fundamental role in the evaluation of social welfare in many dimensions.We revisit the concept of inequity, whether across states of world (uncertainty), across individuals (inequality) and across generations (intergenerational... mehr

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    Inequity plays a fundamental role in the evaluation of social welfare in many dimensions.We revisit the concept of inequity, whether across states of world (uncertainty), across individuals (inequality) and across generations (intergenerational equity), using a common framework generalizing the discounted expected utilitarianism approach. We propose a general measure of welfare as equity equivalents and develop the corresponding inequity index. We then allow for different degrees of inequity aversion across the three dimensions to span a simplex of possible inequity preferences and relate it to the recent literature on this topic. We show that the ordering of aggregation across the different dimensions matters for welfare evaluations and that many welfare-theoretical approaches developed in the literature may be seen as special cases of this general framework.

     
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    hdl: 10419/162256
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 14
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist?
    prognosis from 21st century pandemics
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Furceri, Davide; Líbano Monteiro, Francisco; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan David; Pizzuto, Pietro; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led... mehr

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    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes

     
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  14. The social cost of carbon with intragenerational inequality under economic uncertainty
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Emmerling, Johannes; Groom, Benjamin
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and... mehr

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    A formula is derived for the social cost of carbon (SCC) that takes account of intragenerational income inequality and its evolution with economic growth. The social discount rate (SDR) should be adjusted to account for intragenerational and intergenerational inequality aversion and for risk aversion. If growth increases (reduces) intra-generational inequality, the SDR is lower (higher) and the SCC higher (lower) than along an inequality-neutral growth path, especially if intra-generational and intergenerational inequality aversion are higher. The same qualitative result is shown for two welfare specifications, one with a representative agent with equally distributed equivalent (EDE) income and the other considers individuals separately across the income distribution. The latter specification causes an additional impact of income inequality on the SDR and SCC because individuals are compared both within and between time periods. Our preferred EDE calibration to a scenario in which global intragenerational inequality declines over time, leads to a SCC in 2020 of $70/tCO2 compared to a value of $85/tCO2 without the effect of inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263707
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9777 (2022)
    Schlagworte: social discount rate; social cost of carbon; intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion; risk aversion; inequality; growth; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Recalculating the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Shayegh, Soheil; Bosetti, Valentina; Dietz, Simon; Emmerling, Johannes; Hambel, Christoph; Jensen, Svenn; Kraft, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo; Traeger, Christian; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: May 2018
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters,... mehr

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    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters, heterogeneity in damages and policies, have given rise to skepticism about the relevance of these models for policy making. IAM community needs to respond to these critics and to the new challenges posed by developments in the policy arena. New climate targets emerging from the Paris Agreement and the uncertainty about the signatories' commitment to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are prime examples of challenges that need to be addressed in the next generation of IAMs. Given these challenges, calculating the social cost of carbon requires a new framework. This can be done by computing marginal abatement cost in cost-effective settings which provides different results than those calculated using constrained cost-benefit analysis. Here we focus on the areas where IAMs can be deployed to asses uncertainty and risk management, learning, and regional heterogeneity in climate change impacts.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2018, 019
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 9 Seiten)
  16. Discounting and the representative median agent
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Groom, Benjamin; Wettingfeld, Tanja
    Erschienen: July 2017
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 309
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 271
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Quantifying non-cooperative climate engineering
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: December 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    The mismatch between actions to combat climate change, which are based on voluntary national initiatives of limited effort, and the recognition of the importance of global warming is growing. Climate engineering via solar radiation management has... mehr

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    The mismatch between actions to combat climate change, which are based on voluntary national initiatives of limited effort, and the recognition of the importance of global warming is growing. Climate engineering via solar radiation management has been proposed as a possible complement to traditional climate policies. However, climate engineering entails specific risks, including its governance. Free driving, the possibility of unilateral climate engineering to the detriment of other nations, has been recently proposed as a potentially powerful additional externality to the traditional free riding one (Weitzman, 2015). This paper provides the first quantitative evaluation of the risks of free driving. Our results indicate that in a strategic setting there is significant over-provision (by almost an order of magnitude) of climate engineering above what is socially optimal, resulting in a sub-optimal global climate. Regions with high climate change impacts, most notably India and developing Asia, deploy climate engineering at the expenses of other regions.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 058
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The social cost of carbon with intragenerational inequality and economic uncertainty
    Autor*in: Ploeg, Frederick van der; Emmerling, Johannes; Groom, Benjamin
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 414
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 389
    Schlagworte: social discount rate; social cost of carbon; intra- and intergenerational inequality aversion; risk aversion; inequality; growth; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Geoengineering and abatement
    a "flat" relationship under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its... mehr

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    The potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its effectiveness, costs, and impacts, all of which are highly uncertain. This has led to a polarizing debate. This paper evaluates the role of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the optimal abatement path, focusing on the uncertainty about the effectiveness of SRM and the interaction with uncertain climate change response. Using standard economic models of dynamic decision theory under uncertainty, we show that abatement is decreasing in the probability of success of SRM, but that this relation is concave and thus that significant abatement reductions are optimal only if SRM is very likely to be effective. The results are confirmed even when considering positive correlation structures between the effectiveness of geoengineering and the magnitude of climate change. Using a stochastic version of an Integrated Assessment Model, the results are found to be robust for a wide range of parameters specification. -- Geoengineering ; Mitigation ; Climate Policy ; Uncertainty

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 31.2013
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S.), graph. Darst.
  20. Assessing the implications of a global net-zero transition for developing Asia
    insights from integrated assessment modeling
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Drouet, Laurent; Raitzer, David A.; Pradhananga, Manisha
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of... mehr

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    This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2°C. Under an efficient approach to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, the power sector would almost fully decarbonize by mid-century, and emissions from land use would strongly fall. Although the climate has a lagged response to emissions reductions, climate benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 3, with gains concentrated in the lowest-income subregions of Asia. Air quality would also improve, saving about 0.35 million lives in the region by 2050. Including these co-benefits raises the benefit-cost ratio for Asia under ambitious decarbonization to 5. Energy-related employment also rises during the transition. However, appropriate policies are needed to address potential effects on disadvantaged groups.

     
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    hdl: 10419/298155
    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 709 (December 2023)
    Schlagworte: climate change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; energy; land use; net-zero; NDCs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen