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  1. Can a growing world be fed when the climate is changing?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Lanz, Bruno
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  University of Neuchatel, Institute of Economic Research, [Neuchâtel]

    We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to... mehr

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    We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to 2015. The model integrates several features necessary to study the problem, including an explicit agriculture sector, endogenous fertility, directed technical change and fossil/renewable energy. We estimate the world economy is more than one trillion dollars smaller, and world population more than 80 million smaller, than would have been the case without climate change. This is despite substantial adaptation having taken place in general equilibrium through R&D and agricultural land expansion. Policy experiments with the model suggest that optimal GHG taxes are high and future temperatures held well below 2 degrees Celsius.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213484
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: November 2019
    Schriftenreihe: IRENE working paper ; 19, 09
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Can a growing world be fed when the climate is changing?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Lanz, Bruno
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to... mehr

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    We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to 2015. The model integrates several features necessary to study the problem, including an explicit agriculture sector, endogenous fertility, directed technical change and fossil/renewable energy. We estimate the world economy is more than one trillion dollars smaller, and world population more than 80 million smaller, than would have been the case without climate change. This is despite substantial adaptation having taken place in general equilibrium through R&D and agricultural land expansion. Policy experiments with the model suggest that optimal GHG taxes are high and future temperatures held well below 2°C.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/214988
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: November 2019
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7986 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 75 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Are economists getting climate dynamics right and does it matter?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford

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    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 900 (February 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Pricing ambiguity in catastrophe risk insurance
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Niehörster, Falk
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 354
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 322
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Steering the climate system
    an extended comment
    Autor*in: Mattauch, Linus; Millar, Richard; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Schultes, Anselm Johannes; Venmans, Frank; Bauer, Nico; Dietz, Simon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Farrell, Niall; Hepburn, Cameron; Luderer, Gunnar G.; Pless, Jacquelyn; Spuler, Fiona; Stern, Nicholas H.; Teytelboym, Alexander
    Erschienen: January 2019
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 347
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 315
    Schlagworte: Klimapolitik; Treibhausgas-Emissionen
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Are economists getting climate dynamics right and does it matter?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: February 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We show that several of the most important economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with the current crop of models in climate science. First, most economic models exhibit far too long a delay between an impulse of CO2... mehr

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    We show that several of the most important economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with the current crop of models in climate science. First, most economic models exhibit far too long a delay between an impulse of CO2 emissions and warming. Second, few economic models incorporate positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, whereby carbon sinks remove less CO2 from the atmosphere, the more CO2 they have already removed cumulatively, and the higher is temperature. These inconsistencies affect economic prescriptions to abate CO2 emissions. Controlling for how the economy is represented, different climate models result in significantly different optimal CO2 emissions. A long delay between emissions and warming leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low and too much sensitivity of optimal carbon prices to the discount rate. Omitting positive carbon cycle feedbacks also leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low. We conclude it is important for policy purposes to bring economic models in line with the state of the art in climate science.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216518
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8122 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters
    Autor*in: Campiglio, Emanuele; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general... mehr

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    The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement costs calibrated on a large energy modelling database, solved with recursive methods. We show how capital inertia puts upward pressure on emissions and temperatures in the short run, but that nonetheless it is optimal to actively disinvest from - to 'strand' - a significant share of the dirty capital stock. Conversely, clean technological progress, as well as uncertainty about climatic and economic factors, lead to lower emissions and temperatures in the long run. Putting these factors together, we estimate a net premium of 33% on the optimal carbon price today relative to a 'straw man' model with perfect capital mobility, fixed abatement costs and no uncertainty.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271783
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10139 (2022)
    Schlagworte: djustment costs; carbon price; climate change; low-carbon transition; stranded assets; technological progress; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Optimal climate policy in the face of tipping points and asset stranding
    Autor*in: Campiglio, Emanuele; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  National Bank of Belgium, Brussels

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    hdl: 10419/238180
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper research / National Bank of Belgium ; no 393 (October 2020)
    Schlagworte: Klimapolitik; Erfolgsfaktor
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Lanz, Bruno
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 411
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 386
    Schlagworte: agriculture; climate change; directed technical change; economic growth; energy; population growth; structural change; structural estimation; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Optimal climate policy as if the transition matters
    Autor*in: Campiglio, Emanuele; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 412
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 387
    Schlagworte: adjustment costs; carbon price; climate change; low-carbon transition; stranded assets; technological progress; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Does an environmental Kuznets curve exist for biodiversity?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon
    Erschienen: September 2000
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich

    Within the past ten years, environmental economics has witnessed the development of a theory that has stirred up considerable controversy. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis predicts negative environmental impact first increases with rising income... mehr

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    Within the past ten years, environmental economics has witnessed the development of a theory that has stirred up considerable controversy. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis predicts negative environmental impact first increases with rising income and then decreases. A wealth of indicators have been used to test this claim but one of the most important global environmental quantities, biodiversity, has remained untouched. The purpose of this study is thus to pose the question, is there an environmental Kuznets curve for biodiversity?

     
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    hdl: 10419/171463
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ETH Zürich ; 00, 19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Environmental Kuznets Curve, biodiversity and sustainability
    Autor*in: Schubert, Renate; Dietz, Simon
    Erschienen: 2001
    Verlag:  Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung, Bonn

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    Schriftenreihe: ZEF-discussions papers on development policy ; 40
    Schlagworte: Artenvielfalt; Entwicklung; Nationaleinkommen; Umweltökonomik; Nachhaltige Entwicklung; Theorie; Environmental Kuznets Curve
    Umfang: 30 S, graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 25 - 27
  13. Does an environmental Kuznets curve exist for biodiversity?
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon
    Erschienen: 2000
    Verlag:  ETH, Inst. für Wirtschaftsforschung, Zürich

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    Schriftenreihe: Materialien / Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 00/19
    Schlagworte: Artenvielfalt; Umweltbelastung; Theorie; Environmental Kuznets Curve
    Umfang: 17 Bl, graph. Darst
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    Literaturverz. Bl. 15 - 17
  14. Optimal climate policy under exogenous and endogenous technical change
    making sense of the different approaches
    Autor*in: Coppens, Leo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: April 2024
    Verlag:  London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 408
    Schlagworte: climate change; cost-benefit analysis; induced innovation; integrated assessment models; technical change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Recalculating the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Shayegh, Soheil; Bosetti, Valentina; Dietz, Simon; Emmerling, Johannes; Hambel, Christoph; Jensen, Svenn; Kraft, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo; Traeger, Christian; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: May 2018
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters,... mehr

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    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters, heterogeneity in damages and policies, have given rise to skepticism about the relevance of these models for policy making. IAM community needs to respond to these critics and to the new challenges posed by developments in the policy arena. New climate targets emerging from the Paris Agreement and the uncertainty about the signatories' commitment to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are prime examples of challenges that need to be addressed in the next generation of IAMs. Given these challenges, calculating the social cost of carbon requires a new framework. This can be done by computing marginal abatement cost in cost-effective settings which provides different results than those calculated using constrained cost-benefit analysis. Here we focus on the areas where IAMs can be deployed to asses uncertainty and risk management, learning, and regional heterogeneity in climate change impacts.

     
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    hdl: 10419/191361
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2018, 019
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 9 Seiten)
  16. Steering the climate system
    an extended comment
    Autor*in: Mattauch, Linus; Millar, Richard; Ploeg, Frederick van der; Rezai, Armon; Schultes, Anselm; Venmans, Frank; Bauer, Nico; Dietz, Simon; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Farrell, Niall; Hepburn, Cameron; Luderer, Gunnar G.; Pless, Jacquelyn; Spuler, Fiona; Stern, Nicholas H.; Teytelboym, Alexander
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Lemoine and Rudik (2017) argue that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions, because there is substantial inertia in the climate system. However, this conclusion rests upon misunderstanding the relevant climate physics: there is no... mehr

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    Lemoine and Rudik (2017) argue that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions, because there is substantial inertia in the climate system. However, this conclusion rests upon misunderstanding the relevant climate physics: there is no substantial lag between CO2 emissions and warming, which policy could rely upon. Applying a mainstream climate physics model to the economics of Lemoine and Rudik (2017) invalidates the article's implications for climate policy: the cost-effective carbon price that limits warming to a range of targets including 2 oC starts high and increases at the interest rate.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7414 (December 2018)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Global economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture
    Autor*in: Lanz, Bruno; Dietz, Simon; Swanson, Timothy M.
    Erschienen: May 2017
    Verlag:  University of Neuchatel, Institute of Economic Research, Neuchâtel

    We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional... mehr

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    We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporaneous population. Agriculture demands land as an input, itself treated as a scarce form of capital. In our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined, and key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960-2010 data on world GDP, population, cropland and technological progress. Introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture, we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages, and that it significantly affects both optimal consumption and population trajectories.

     
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    hdl: 10419/191502
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: May 2017
    Schriftenreihe: IRENE, working paper ; 17, 07
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The expansion of modern agriculture and global biodiversity decline
    an integrated assessment
    Autor*in: Lanz, Bruno; Dietz, Simon; Swanson, Timothy M.
    Erschienen: July 2017
    Verlag:  University of Neuchatel, Institute of Economic Research, Neuchâtel

    The world is banking on a major increase in food production, if the dietary needs and food preferences of an increasing, and increasingly rich, population are to be met. This requires the further expansion of modern agriculture, but modern... mehr

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    The world is banking on a major increase in food production, if the dietary needs and food preferences of an increasing, and increasingly rich, population are to be met. This requires the further expansion of modern agriculture, but modern agriculture rests on a small number of highly productive crops and its expansion has led to a significant loss of global biodiversity. Ecologists have shown that biodiversity loss results in lower plant productivity, while agricultural economists have linked biodiversity loss on farms with increasing variability of crop yields, and sometimes lower mean yields. In this paper we consider the macro-economic consequences of the continued expansion of particular forms of intensive, modern agriculture, with a focus on how the loss of biodiversity affects food production. We employ a quantitative, structurally estimated model of the global economy, which jointly determines economic growth, population and food demand, agricultural innovations and land conversion. We show that even small effects of agricultural expansion on productivity via biodiversity loss might be sufficient to warrant a moratorium on further land conversion.

     
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    hdl: 10419/191503
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: July 2017
    Schriftenreihe: IRENE, working paper ; 17, 08
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy
    in search of general principles
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank
    Erschienen: November 2017
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 317
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 283
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Asheim, Geir B.
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for... mehr

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    Empirical evaluation of policies to mitigate climate change has been largely confined to the application of discounted utilitarianism (DU). DU is controversial, both due to the conditions through which it is justified and due to its consequences for climate policies, where the discounting of future utility gains from present abatement efforts makes it harder for such measures to justify their present costs. In this paper, we propose sustainable discounted utilitarianism (SDU) as an alternative principle for evaluation of climate policy. Unlike undiscounted utilitarianism, which always assigns zero relative weight to present utility, SDU is an axiomatically based criterion, which departs from DU by assigning zero weight to present utility if and only if the present is better off than the future. Using the DICE integrated assessment model to run risk analysis, we show that it is possible for the future to be worse off than the present along a "business as usual" development path. Consequently SDU and DU differ, and willingness to pay for emissions reductions is (sometimes significantly) higher under SDU than under DU. Under SDU, stringent schedules of emissions reductions increase social welfare, even for a relatively high utility discount rate. -- climate change ; discounted utilitarianism ; intergenerational equity ; sustainable development ; sustainable discounted utilitarianism

     
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    hdl: 10419/49500
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 3563
    Schlagworte: Klimaschutz; Utilitarismus; Soziale Diskontrate; Generationengerechtigkeit; Gerechtigkeit; Nachhaltige Entwicklung; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 27 S., 559 KB), graph. Darst.
  21. The treatment of risk and uncertainty in the US social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel

    This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established "social cost of carbon" (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United States. It argues that the analysis of the US Interagency Working Group on Social... mehr

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    This note considers the treatment of risk and uncertainty in the recently established "social cost of carbon" (SCC) for analysis of federal regulations in the United States. It argues that the analysis of the US Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon did not go far enough into the tail of low-probability, high-impact scenarios, and, via its approach to discounting, it mis-estimated climate risk, possibly hugely. Given the uncertainty about estimating the SCC, the note concludes by arguing that there is in fact much to commend an approach whereby a quantitative, long-term emissions target is chosen, and the price of carbon for regulatory impact analysis is then based on estimates of the marginal cost of abatement to achieve that very target. -- Ambiguity ; climate change ; discounting ; integrated assessment modelling ; risk ; social cost of carbon ; uncertainty

     
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    hdl: 10419/48829
    Schriftenreihe: Economics / Discussion papers ; 2011-30
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Soziale Kosten; Diskontierung; Risiko; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 11 S., 181,16 KB)
  22. Running with the red queen
    an integrated assessment of agricultural land expansion and global biodiversity decline
    Autor*in: Lanz, Bruno; Dietz, Simon; Swanson, Timothy M.
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Grantham

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment ; 167
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  23. Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints
    a quantitative growth theoretic perspective
    Autor*in: Lanz, Bruno; Dietz, Simon; Swanson, Timothy M.
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Grantham

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment ; 161
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (38 S.), graph. Darst.
  24. Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk
    how Nordhaus' framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions
    Autor*in: Dietz, Simon; Stern, Nicholas H.
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Grantham

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment ; 159
    Working papers / Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy ; 180
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (36 S.), graph. Darst.
  25. Ambiguity and climate policy
    Autor*in: Millner, Antony; Dietz, Simon; Heal, Geoffrey
    Erschienen: 2010

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; 16050
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Umweltpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Theorie
    Umfang: 24 S.
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