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  1. Cyclicality of schooling
    new evidence from unobserved components models
    Autor*in: Sadaba, Barbara; Vujić, Sunčica; Maier, Sofia
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, [Ottawa]

    In this paper, we present new evidence from unobserved components time-series models on the cyclical behavior of the demand for education relative to economic cycles. We investigate the cyclical properties of schooling decisions, the time-varying... mehr

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    In this paper, we present new evidence from unobserved components time-series models on the cyclical behavior of the demand for education relative to economic cycles. We investigate the cyclical properties of schooling decisions, the time-varying exposure of these decisions to changes in the state of the macro economy, and the relative importance of shocks that drive economic fluctuations on the demand for schooling. To this end, we perform a trend-cycle decomposition of enrollment ratios for the United Kingdom over the period 1995Q1 to 2019Q4. We first establish the presence of a persistent cyclical process in the demand for schooling independent of a slow-moving trend. We then show that the direction of the effect of the economic cycle on schooling decisions (i.e., pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical, a-cyclical) is largely time-dependent, together with the degree of synchronization. Importantly, we find that changes in the demand for schooling are largely explained by economic cycles. We note, however, that the effects are different for different subsamples based on demographic characteristics..

     
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    hdl: 10419/241204
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Last updated: September 18, 2020
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2020, 38
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How do firms adjust to a negative labor supply shock?
    evidence form migration outflows
    Autor*in: Dicarlo, Emanuele
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1361 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: migration; labor supply; skills; firms
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The redistributive impact of consumption taxation in the EU
    lessons from the post-financial crisis decade
    Autor*in: Maier, Sofia; Ricci, Mattia
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    During the 2010-2019 decade, consumption taxes have risen in the vast majority of the EU Member States as a result of austerity measures, tax shifts as well as taxing transport and housing-related energy consumption. The redistributive impact of... mehr

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    During the 2010-2019 decade, consumption taxes have risen in the vast majority of the EU Member States as a result of austerity measures, tax shifts as well as taxing transport and housing-related energy consumption. The redistributive impact of these policy changes remains mostly unexplored. In this paper, we provide new empirical evidence on the redistributive effect of changes in VAT and excises over this period, along with other developments in the broader tax-benefit system including tax shift reforms. Our results indicate that the consumption tax systems in the EU have become more unequalizing in most countries as a result of an increase in the tax burden and of its regressivity. While the taxation of transport is the component that has increased the most, the highest inequality impact was driven by the taxation of housing-related energy consumption. Only in a few countries these policy changes were accompanied by an increase in social transfers sufficient to compensate the poorest households.

     
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    hdl: 10419/280870
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2022, 10
    JRC technical report
    Schlagworte: Consumption taxation; Tax shift; Austerity; Inequality; Microsimulation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Enforcing "Equal Pay for Equal Work" in the EU
    what would it take?
    Autor*in: De Poli, Silvia; Maier, Sofia
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    The European Parliament has recently approved new binding pay transparency measures to promote ''Equal Pay for Equal Work'', an EU founding principle which is at the heart of the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan towards 2030. Using... mehr

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    The European Parliament has recently approved new binding pay transparency measures to promote ''Equal Pay for Equal Work'', an EU founding principle which is at the heart of the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan towards 2030. Using harmonized microdata for the EU 27 countries and a novel estimation approach -based on blocking with regression adjustments- we provide new comparable estimates of the gap in gross hourly wages between women and men performing similar work. This gap ranges from about 6% in Germany to 18% in Estonia. We also shed new light on the (heterogeneous) distributional consequences of a hypothetical enforcement of equal pay for equal work, simulating an upward shift in women's gross hourly wage. The strongest impact on the distribution of labour earnings would take place in countries with high gender pay gaps for equal work and small gender gaps in employment and hours worked (mainly Central and Eastern European countries), whereas only marginal effects are identified in countries with large gaps in hours worked and gender segregation in the type of work done (Western European countries), and also in countries with large employment gaps (Southern European countries). We also identify income poverty-reducing and inequality-increasing effects. The latter is driven by a composition effect (under-representation of employed women in low-income households), which is only partly offset by the tax-benefit system.

     
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    hdl: 10419/280871
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2022, 11
    JRC technical report
    Schlagworte: gender pay gap; pay transparency; regression-after-blocking; inequality; European Union
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. How do firms adjust to negative labor supply shocks?
    evidence from migration outflows
    Autor*in: Dicarlo, Emanuele
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The quality of workers in a country positively relates to productivity of firms, adoption of new technologies, and growth. This paper studies adjustments of Italian firms to negative labor supply shocks in the context of workers' outflows from Italy... mehr

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    The quality of workers in a country positively relates to productivity of firms, adoption of new technologies, and growth. This paper studies adjustments of Italian firms to negative labor supply shocks in the context of workers' outflows from Italy to Switzerland. My diff-in-diff leverages the implementation of a policy in which Switzerland granted free labor market mobility to EU citizens and different treatment intensity of Italian firms based on their distance to the Swiss border. Using detailed social security data on the universe of Italian firms and workers, I document large (12 percentage points higher) outflows of workers and fewer (2.5 percentage points) surviving firms in the treatment group relative to control. Despite replacing workers and becoming more capital intensive, treated firms are less productive and pay lower wages. I investigate this evidence through the lens of a simple production function with high and low-skilled labor within a heterogeneity analysis based on the skill intensity of the industry of each firm. In line with the brain drain literature, I show how adverse effects of large outflows of workers operate through firms that workers leave. I provide suggestive evidence that high-skill intensive firms are the main driver of the negative results on wages and productivity. I also show that low skill intensive firms instead suffer less from losing workers and provide new job opportunities for the workers who do not migrate.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250655
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14994
    Schlagworte: migration; labor supply; skills; firms
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Characterizing the schooling cycle
    Autor*in: Sadaba, Barbara; Vujić, Sunčica; Maier, Sofia
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper develops a novel and tractable empirical approach to estimate the cycle in schooling participation decisions, which we denominate the schooling cycle. The estimation procedure is based on unobserved components time series models that... mehr

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    This paper develops a novel and tractable empirical approach to estimate the cycle in schooling participation decisions, which we denominate the schooling cycle. The estimation procedure is based on unobserved components time series models that decompose higher education enrollment rates into a slow-moving stochastic trend and a stationary cyclical factor. By doing so, we obtain a full characterization of the cyclical dynamics of schooling participation and analyze its relationship with the business cycle in a time-varying fashion. Using data for 16–24-year-olds attending full-time post-secondary education in the United Kingdom from 1995Q1 to 2019Q4, we find evidence of a very persistent schooling cycle largely, but not exclusively, explained by the business cycle. Additionally, we find that the direction of the response of schooling participation to the business cycle, say, pro-, counter- or a-cyclical, is largely time-dependent, as is the degree of synchrony between both cycles. We note, however, that results are heterogeneous across gender.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263453
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15237
    Schlagworte: human capital; business cycle; state space; kalman smoother
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Le modifiche al sistema fiscale e di welfare italiano attuate nel 2022
    profili di equità ed efficienza
    Autor*in: Dicarlo, Emanuele; Recchia, Pasquale; Tomasi, Antonella
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Sprache: Italienisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; numero 748 (Marzo 2023)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Inflation, fiscal policy and inequality
    the distributional impact of fiscal measures to compensate for consumer inflation
    Autor*in: 3000 Amores, Antonio F.; Basso, Henrique S.; Bischl, Simeon; De Agostini, Paola; De Poli, Silvia; Dicarlo, Emanuele; Flevotomou, Maria; Freier, Maximilian; Maier, Sofia; García-Miralles, Esteban; Pidkuyko, Myroslav; Ricci, Mattia; Riscado, Sara
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata... mehr

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    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata as the input - EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC) and household budget surveys (HBS) - to quantify the distributional impact of inflation, income support measures and measures aimed at containing prices. The analysis confirms that purchasing power and welfare were more severely affected by the 2022 inflation surge in lower-income households than in higher-income households. Fiscal measures compensated households for about a third of their welfare loss, though with significant differences between countries. At the same time, fiscal measures closed around 60% of the inequality gap between lower and higherincome households. Most fiscal measures were not particularly well targeted at lowincome households, resulting in a higher than necessary fiscal burden to cushion the distributional impact of the inflationary shock.

     
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    ISBN: 9789289962292
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283408
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 330
    Schlagworte: inflation; fiscal policy; distributional effect; welfare effect; EUROMOD
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (42 Seiten), Diagramme
  9. Inflation, fiscal policy and inequality
    the distributional impact of fiscal measures to compensate for consumer inflation
    Autor*in: 3000 Amores, Antonio F.; Basso, Henrique S.; Bischl, Simeon; De Agostini, Paola; De Poli, Silvia; Dicarlo, Emanuele; Flevotomou, Maria; Freier, Maximilian; Maier, Sofia; García-Miralles, Esteban; Pidkuyko, Myroslav; Ricci, Mattia; Riscado, Sara
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata... mehr

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    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata as the input - EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC) and household budget surveys (HBS) - to quantify the distributional impact of inflation, income support measures and measures aimed at containing prices. The analysis confirms that purchasing power and welfare were more severely affected by the 2022 inflation surge in lower-income households than in higher-income households. Fiscal measures compensated households for about a third of their welfare loss, though with significant differences between countries. At the same time, fiscal measures closed around 60% of the inequality gap between lower and higherincome households. Most fiscal measures were not particularly well targeted at lowincome households, resulting in a higher than necessary fiscal burden to cushion the distributional impact of the inflationary shock.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283408
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 330
    Schlagworte: inflation; fiscal policy; distributional effect; welfare effect; EUROMOD
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (42 Seiten), Diagramme
  10. EUROMOD baseline report
    Autor*in: De Poli, Silvia; Gil-Bermejo Lazo, Celia; Leventi, Chrysa; Maier, Sofia; Papini, Andrea; Ricci, Mattia; Serruys, Hannes; Almeida, Vanda; Christl, Michael; Cruces, Hugo; De Agostini, Paola; Grünberger, Klaus; Hernández, Adrian; Jȩdrych Villa, Marta; Manios, Kostas; Mazzon, Alberto; Navarro Berdeal, Silvia; Palma Fernandez, Bianey; Picos, Fidel; Tumino, Alberto; Vázquez Torres, Estefanía
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    This report provides a selection of baseline results and headline indicators from the latest public version (I5.0+) of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. We begin by presenting indicators for income inequality and... mehr

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    This report provides a selection of baseline results and headline indicators from the latest public version (I5.0+) of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. We begin by presenting indicators for income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty. We then provide a comparative decomposition of the redistributive effect of the tax-benefit systems across the EU. We study how different Member States achieve various degrees of redistribution through different combinations of progressivity and size of their tax-benefit systems. We then analyse various work incentive indicators both at the intensive and the extensive margin, discussing how effective marginal rates of taxation and replacement rates vary across countries. The report also describes the way EUROMOD can be used to simulate economic shocks leading to labour market transition through the LMA (Labour Market Adjustment) add-on. We illustrate this by simulating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cushioning effect of policy measures taken by EU Member States. Finally, we present the evolution of the income distribution over the post-financial crisis decade and we compare living standards across EU countries at the top and the bottom of the income distribution.

     
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    hdl: 10419/280874
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2023, 5
    Schlagworte: Mikrosimulation; Steuer; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Armut; Soziale Ungleichheit; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Inflation, fiscal policy and inequality
    Autor*in: Amore, Antonio F.; Basso, Henrique S.; Bischl, Johannes Simeon; De Agostini, Paola; De Poli, Silvia; Dicarlo, Emanuele; Flevotomou, Maria; Freier, Maximilian; Maier, Sofia; García-Miralles, Esteban; Pidkuyko, Myroslav; Ricci, Mattia; Riscado, Sara
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata... mehr

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    This paper analyses the distributional impact of high consumer inflation in the euro area and government measures to compensate households in 2022. The study uses the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union (EUROMOD) with microdata as the input - EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC) and household budget surveys (HBS) - to quantify the distributional impact of inflation, income support measures and measures aimed at containing prices. The analysis confirms that purchasing power and welfare were more severely affected by the 2022 inflation surge in lower-income households than in higher-income households. Fiscal measures compensated households for about a third of their welfare loss, though with significant differences between countries. At the same time, fiscal measures closed around 60% of the inequality gap between lower and higher-income households. Most fiscal measures were not particularly well targeted at low-income households, resulting in a higher than necessary fiscal burden to cushion the distributional impact of the inflationary shock.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2023, 10
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Limiting prices or transferring money?
    an ex-ante assessment of alternative measures to cope with the hike in energy prices
    Autor*in: Amores, Antonio F.; Christl, Michael; De Agostini, Paola; De Poli, Silvia; Maier, Sofia
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  European Commission, Seville

    The hike in energy prices across Europe in 2022 and 2023 led to significant government interventions. Several governments introduced 'energy price cap' measures to alleviate the increased burden on households' expenditures. This paper presents an ex... mehr

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    The hike in energy prices across Europe in 2022 and 2023 led to significant government interventions. Several governments introduced 'energy price cap' measures to alleviate the increased burden on households' expenditures. This paper presents an ex ante assessment of the expected distributional impact of the inflation surge and the cushioning effect of these price cap policies introduced in 2023 in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. Our analysis combines macroforecasting techniques with microsimulation methods and shows that the inflationary shock of 2023 will more severely affect those households at the bottom of the income distribution. Our results also highlight that the price cap measures will only partly absorb the negative distributional consequences of the inflationary shock while it would completely offset the increase in energy poverty. Additionally, we show that simpler measures, such as lump-sum cash transfers, are more efficient (considering government's budgetary costs) in cushioning the inequality-increasing effects of inflation, especially when such measures are targeted. Price caps, on the other hand, are more efficient in reducing energy poverty, given the non-negligible incidence of energy poverty in middle-income groups.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2023, 11
    Schlagworte: Energy; price cap; microsimulation; inequality; Europe
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. La revisione delle misure di contrasto alla povertà in Italia
    Autor*in: Bovini, Giulia; Dicarlo, Emanuele; Tomasi, Antonella
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 820 (Dicembre 2023)
    Schlagworte: basic income; poverty; redistribution; microsimulation; occupation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The skill content of occupations across low and middle income countries
    evidence from harmonized data
    Autor*in: Dicarlo, Emanuele; Bello, Salvatore Lo; Monroy-Taborda, Sebastian; Oviedo, Ana María; Sanchez-Puerta, Maria Laura; Santos, Indhira
    Erschienen: September 2016
    Verlag:  IZA, Bonn, Germany

    Using new and harmonized worker-level survey data on tasks at work in the developing world, this paper constructs, for the first time, a measure of the skill content of occupations for 10 low and middle-income countries. Following Autor, Levy and... mehr

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    Using new and harmonized worker-level survey data on tasks at work in the developing world, this paper constructs, for the first time, a measure of the skill content of occupations for 10 low and middle-income countries. Following Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003), Acemoglu and Autor (2011), and Autor and Handel (2013), we map tasks into non-routine analytical, non-routine interpersonal, and routine & manual skill groups. We find significant differences in the skill mix used by workers across different occupations, with selected white-collar occupations being intensive in Analytical and Interpersonal skills, while others - mostly blue collar, but not only - being more intensive in Routine and Manual skills. We also find that the rankings of occupations along the skill dimensions are quite stable across countries, and they correlate significantly higher between middle- and low-income countries than between them and the United States. Hence, the common practice of assuming the same skill structure for occupations in the United States and other countries can be misleading. Finally, we find that the heterogeneity of skill content between occupations (within countries) tends to decrease with the level of income, while the heterogeneity within occupations decreases only weakly (or not at all) for higher income levels. Taken together, these results suggest that as countries develop, they tend to adopt and use certain skills more widely, especially across occupations. This may suggest some degree of specialization in skills content of tasks as countries develop, especially moving towards less occupation-specific Analytical or Interpersonal skills that are becoming increasingly relevant across the board.

     
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    hdl: 10419/147910
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IZA ; no. 10224
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen