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  1. Is central bank currency fundamental to the monetary system?
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Claussen, Carl Andreas; Hendry, Scott
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. This is a significant question since the use of cash - the... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 201
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    In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. This is a significant question since the use of cash - the only form of central bank money that the public currently has access to - is declining rapidly in many countries. The question is highly relevant to the discussion around whether central banks need to issue a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). We conclude that depositors' need for control could be a reason why cash or a CBDC is essential, even in countries with strong measures safeguarding commercial bank money.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227813
    Schriftenreihe: Staff discussion paper / Bank of Canada ; 2020, 2
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Spread the word: international spillovers from central bank communication
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Bertsch, Christoph; Hull, Isaiah; Zhang, Xin
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    VS 546
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 824 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Withering cash: is Sweden ahead of the curve or just special?
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Claussen, Carl Andreas; Reslow, André
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    There is much in our increasingly digitized economies to suggest that the use of cash should fall. However, in almost all countries, it is constant or rising with a few notable exceptions. Sweden, in particular, displays a divergent development. In... mehr

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    There is much in our increasingly digitized economies to suggest that the use of cash should fall. However, in almost all countries, it is constant or rising with a few notable exceptions. Sweden, in particular, displays a divergent development. In this paper, we explore the drivers behind this development. We use a data set consisting of 129 developed and developing countries and an extensive set of possible explanatory variables to estimate panel regressions for cash demand. In line with earlier studies, we find that economic development, demography, and the interest rate are important factors. A new finding is that our estimations point to a negative relationship between cash and corruption, and between cash and trust in government and financial institutions. However, this is not enough to fully explain the divergent development in Sweden. We therefore also discuss some recent events and policy measures in Sweden that seem to have accelerated the decline in cash during the last decade.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232596
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 393
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Hull, Isaiah; Köhler, Hanna Stenbacka
    Erschienen: December 2016
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 204 (334)
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    Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse response functions for GDP growth than shocks to the US index. In particular, a one standard deviation shock to the Swedish index delivers its maximum impact in the same quarter, lowering GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, a shock to the US index delivers its maximum impact with a one-quarter delay. Other foreign proxies, such as the EU and German indices, also generate effects that peak with a one-quarter delay.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/189934
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 334
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The evolution of the natural rate of interest
    evidence from the Scandinavian countries
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Solberger, Martin; Spånberg, Erik; Österholm, Pär
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Örebro University School of Business, Örebro, Sweden

    In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators - a modelling choice which allows... mehr

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    In this paper, the natural rate of interest in Denmark, Norway and Sweden are estimated. This is done by augmenting the Laubach and Williams (2003) framework with a dynamic factor model linked to economic indicators - a modelling choice which allows us to better identify business cycle fluctuations. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods on data ranging from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. The results indicate that the natural rate has declined substantially and in all countries is at a low level at the end of the sample.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/274607
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2023, 8
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; Business cycle; Bayesian filter; Dynamic factor model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Spread the word
    international spillovers from central bank communication
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Bertsch, Christoph; Hull, Isaiah; Zhang, Xin
    Erschienen: September 2018
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    We use text analysis and a novel dataset to measure the sentiment component of central bank communications in 23 countries over the 2002-2017 period. Our analysis yields three key results. First, using directed networks, we show that comovement in... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 204 (357)
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    We use text analysis and a novel dataset to measure the sentiment component of central bank communications in 23 countries over the 2002-2017 period. Our analysis yields three key results. First, using directed networks, we show that comovement in sentiment across central banks is not reducible to trade or financial flow exposure. Second, we find that geographic distance is a robust and economically significant determinant of comovement in central bank sentiment, while shared language and colonial ties are economically significant, but less robust. Third, we use structural VARs to show that sentiment shocks generate cross-country spillovers in sentiment, policy rates, and macroeconomic variables. We also find that the Fed plays a uniquely influential role in generating such sentiment spillovers, while the ECB is primarily influenced by other central banks. Overall, our results suggest that central bank communication contains systematic biases that could lead to suboptimal policy outcomes.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/189957
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 357
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. A surprising pattern is hidden behind the trend in long-term interest rates
    Autor*in: Armelius, Hanna; Laséen, Stefan; Mammos, Stefania
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, [Stockholm]

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    Schriftenreihe: Economic commentary ; No. 2024, 7 (23 April)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen