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  1. Fighting climate change: the role of norms, preferences, and moral values
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Boneva, Teodora; Chopra, Felix; Falk, Armin
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change - as measured through an incentivized donation decision - is highly... mehr

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    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change - as measured through an incentivized donation decision - is highly heterogeneous across the population. Individual beliefs about social norms, economic preferences such as patience and altruism, as well as universal moral values positively predict climate preferences. Moreover, we document systematic misperceptions of prevalent social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate- friendly behaviors and norms among their fellow citizens. Providing respondents with correct information causally raises individual willingness to fight climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/237346
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 101
    Schlagworte: Climate change; climate behavior; climate policies; social norms; economic preferences; moral values; beliefs; survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. What's worth knowing?
    economists' opinions about economics
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Falk, Martin
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    We document economists’ opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession... mehr

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    We document economists’ opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession participated in our global survey. Detailed bibliometric data show that our sample represents the population of economic researchers who publish in English. We report three main findings. First, economists’ opinions are vastly heterogeneous. Second, most researchers are dissatisfied with the status quo, in terms of both research topics and objectives. Third, on average, respondents think that economic research should become more policy-relevant, multidisciplinary, risky and disruptive, and pursue more diverse topics. We also find that dissatisfaction with the status quo is more prevalent among female scholars and associated with lower job satisfaction and higher stress levels. Taken together, the results suggest that economics as a field does not appreciate and work on what economists collectively prefer.

     
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    hdl: 10419/237347
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 102
    Schlagworte: Economic research; research objectives; research topics; satisfaction; policy-relevance; multidisciplinarity; diversity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. What's worth knowing?
    economists' opinions about economics
    Autor*in: Falk, Armin; Andre, Peter
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We document economists' opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession... mehr

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    We document economists' opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession participated in our global survey. Detailed bibliometric data show that our sample represents the population of economic researchers who publish in English. We report three main findings. First, economists’ opinions are vastly heterogeneous. Second, most researchers are dissatisfied with the status quo, in terms of both research topics and objectives. Third, on average, respondents think that economic research should become more policy-relevant, multidisciplinary, risky and disruptive, and pursue more diverse topics. We also find that dissatisfaction with the status quo is more prevalent among female scholars and associated with lower job satisfaction and higher stress levels. Taken together, the results suggest that economics as a field does not appreciate and work on what economists collectively prefer.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245364
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9183 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Ökonomen; Meinung; Wirtschaftsforschung; Wirtschaftswissenschaft; Bibliometrie; Welt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Subjective models of the macroeconomy: evidence from experts and representative samples
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their at-tentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical... mehr

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    We study people’s subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their at-tentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks and previous realizations of macroeconomic vari-ables. Within samples of both 6,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are large differences in average beliefs between households and experts. Part of this disagreement seems to arise from selective retrieval of different propagation channels of macroeconomic shocks. We confirm this mechanism causally by exogenously shifting households’ attention to ei-ther supply-side or demand-side channels. Moreover, households with different personal experiences recall different propagation channels of the shocks, while experts tend to re-call textbook models. Our findings offer a new perspective on the widely documented disagreement in macroeconomic expectations.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248661
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 119
    Schlagworte: Expectation Formation; Subjective Models; Associations; Thoughts; Attention; Experiences; Macroeconomic Shocks; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 150 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Fighting climate change
    the role of norms, preferences, and moral values
    Autor*in: Falk, Armin; Andre, Peter; Boneva, Teodora; Chopra, Felix
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change – as measured through an incentivized donation decision – is highly... mehr

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    DS 63
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    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change – as measured through an incentivized donation decision – is highly heterogeneous across the population. Individual beliefs about social norms, economic preferences such as patience and altruism, as well as universal moral values positively predict climate preferences. Moreover, we document systematic misperceptions of prevalent social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate- friendly behaviors and norms among their fellow citizens. Providing respondents with correct information causally raises individual willingness to fight climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245356
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9175 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Klimaschutz; Umweltbewusstsein; Soziale Norm; Soziale Werte; Ethik; Klimawandel; Informationsverbreitung; Zahlungsbereitschaftsanalyse; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Shallow meritocracy: an experiment on fairness views
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter
    Erschienen: September 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    Meritocracies aspire to reward effort and hard work but promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances they were born into. The choice to work hard is, however, often shaped by circumstances. This study investigates whether people's merit... mehr

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    Meritocracies aspire to reward effort and hard work but promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances they were born into. The choice to work hard is, however, often shaped by circumstances. This study investigates whether people's merit judgments are sensitive to this endogeneity of choice. In a series of incentivized experiments with a large, representative US sample, study participants judge how much money two workers deserve for the effort they exerted. In the treatment condition, unequal circumstances strongly discourage one of the workers from working hard. Nonetheless, I find that individuals hold the disadvantaged worker fully responsible for his choice. They do so, even though they understand that choices are strongly influenced by circumstances. Additional experiments identify the cause of this neglect. In light of an uncertain counterfactual state - what would have happened on a level playing field - participants base their merit judgments on the only reliable evidence they possess: observed effort levels. I confirm these patterns in a structural model of merit views and a vignette study with real-world scenarios.

     
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    hdl: 10419/244349
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 115
    Schlagworte: Meritocracy; attitudes toward inequality; redistribution; fairness; responsibility; social preferences; inference; uncertain counterfactual
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Narratives about the macroeconomy
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Harland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/258961
    Schriftenreihe: CEBI working paper series ; 21, 18
    Schlagworte: Narratives; Inflation; Beliefs; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 97 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Subjective models of the macroeconomy
    evidence from experts and a representative sample
    Autor*in: Wohlfart, Johannes; Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen

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    hdl: 10419/258911
    Schriftenreihe: CEBI working paper series ; 19, 11
    Schlagworte: Expectation Formation; Subjective Models; Heuristics; Macroeconomic Shocks; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Fighting climate change: the role of norms, preferences, and moral values
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Boneva, Teodora; Chopra, Felix; Falk, Armin
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change - as measured through an incentivized donation decision - is highly... mehr

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    We document individual willingness to fight climate change and its behavioral determinants in a large representative sample of US adults. Willingness to fight climate change - as measured through an incentivized donation decision - is highly heterogeneous across the population. Individual beliefs about social norms, economic preferences such as patience and altruism, as well as universal moral values positively predict climate preferences. Moreover, we document systematic misperceptions of prevalent social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms among their fellow citizens. Providing respondents with correct information causally raises individual willingness to fight climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245569
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14518
    Schlagworte: climate change; climate behavior; climate policies; social norms; economic preferences; moral values; beliefs; survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. What's worth knowing?
    economists' opinions about economics
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Falk, Armin
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We document economists' opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession... mehr

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    We document economists' opinions about what is worth knowing and ask (i) which research objectives economic research should embrace and (ii) which topics it should study. Almost 10,000 economic researchers from all fields and ranks of the profession participated in our global survey. Detailed bibliometric data show that our sample represents the population of economic researchers who publish in English. We report three main findings. First, economists' opinions are vastly heterogeneous. Second, most researchers are dissatisfied with the status quo, in terms of both research topics and objectives. Third, on average, respondents think that economic research should become more policy-relevant, multidisciplinary, risky and disruptive, and pursue more diverse topics. We also find that dissatisfaction with the status quo is more prevalent among female scholars and associated with lower job satisfaction and higher stress levels. Taken together, the results suggest that economics as a field does not appreciate and work on what economists collectively prefer.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245578
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14527
    Schlagworte: economic research; research objectives; research topics; satisfaction; policy-relevance; multidisciplinarity; diversity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Fighting climate change
    the role of norms, preferences, and moral values
    Autor*in: Falk, Armin; Andre, Peter; Boneva, Teodora; Chopra, Felix
    Erschienen: 08 July 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16343
    Schlagworte: climate change; climate behavior; Climate policies; Social norms; economicpreferences; moral values; beliefs; survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. What's worth knowing?
    economists' opinions about economics
    Autor*in: Falk, Armin; Andre, Peter
    Erschienen: 08 July 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16344
    Schlagworte: Economic research; research objectives; research topics; Satisfaction; policyrelevance,multidisciplinarity; diversity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Subjective models of the macroeconomy
    evidence from experts and a representative sample
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  University of Warwick, Department of Economics, Coventry, United Kingdom

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    Schriftenreihe: Warwick economics research papers ; no: 1342 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Expectation Formation; Subjective Models; Heuristics; Macroeconomic Shocks,Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Subjective models of the macroeconomy
    evidence from experts and a representative sample
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the... mehr

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    We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from standard DSGE models and VAR evidence and relatively homogeneous, there is strong heterogeneity among households. Households predict changes in unemployment that are largely in line with the experts' responses for all four shocks. However, their predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show that a substantial fraction of deviations of household predictions from expert predictions can be explained by the use of a simple heuristic according to which people expect a positive co-movement among variables they perceive as good and among variables they perceive as bad. Our findings inform the validity of central assumptions about the expectation formation process and have important implications for the optimal design of fiscal and monetary policy.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207241
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7850 (September 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 113 Seiten)
  15. Inflation narratives
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain a historically notable rise in inflation using samples of experts, U.S. households, and managers. We document substantial heterogeneity in narratives about the drivers of higher inflation... mehr

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    We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain a historically notable rise in inflation using samples of experts, U.S. households, and managers. We document substantial heterogeneity in narratives about the drivers of higher inflation rates. Experts put more emphasis on demand-side factors, such as fiscal and monetary policy, and on supply chain disruptions. Other supply-side factors, such as labor shortages or increased energy costs, are equally prominent across samples. Households and managers are more likely to tell generic stories related to the pandemic or mismanagement by the government. We also find that households and managers expect the increase in inflation to be more persistent than experts. Moreover, narratives about the drivers of the inflation increase are strongly correlated with beliefs about its persistence. Our findings have implications for understanding macroeconomic expectation formation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249865
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 127
    Schlagworte: Narratives; Inflation; Beliefs; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 90 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Inflation narratives
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: 28 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16758
    Schlagworte: Narratives; Inflation; Beliefs; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; MonetaryPolicy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Narratives about the macroeconomy
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: 13 May 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17305
    Schlagworte: Narratives; Expectation Formation; Causal Reasoning; Inflation; Media; Attention
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 99 Seiten)
  18. Mental models of the stock market
    Autor*in: Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes; Andre, Peter
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg, Frankfurt am Main

  19. Mental models of the stock market
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen

    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock... mehr

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    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models - a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: CEBI working paper series ; 23, 07
    Schlagworte: Kapitalmarktrendite; Erwartungsbildung; Prognose; Ankündigungseffekt; Anlageverhalten; Szenariotechnik; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Understanding markets with socially responsible consumers
    Autor*in: Kaufmann, Marc; Andre, Peter; Kőszegi, Botond
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    Many consumers care about climate change and other externalities associated with their purchases. We analyze the behavior and market effects of such "socially responsible consumers" in three parts. First, we develop a flexible theoretical framework... mehr

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    Many consumers care about climate change and other externalities associated with their purchases. We analyze the behavior and market effects of such "socially responsible consumers" in three parts. First, we develop a flexible theoretical framework to study competitive equilibria with rational consequentialist consumers. In violation of price taking, equilibrium feedback nontrivially dampens a consumer's mitigation efforts, undermining responsible behavior. This leads to a new type of market failure, where even consumers who fully "internalize the externality" overconsume externality-generating goods. At the same time, socially responsible consumers change the relative effectiveness of taxes, caps, and other policies in lowering the externality. Second, since consumer beliefs about and preferences over dampening play a crucial role in our framework, we investigate them empirically via a tailored survey. Consistent with our model, consumers are predominantly consequentialist, and on average believe in dampening. Inconsistent with our model, however, many consumers fail to anticipate dampening. Third, therefore, we analyze how such "naive" consumers modify our theoretical conclusions. Naive consumers behave more responsibly than rational consumers in a single-good economy, but may behave less responsibly in a multi-good economy with cross-market spillovers. A mix of naive and rational consumers may yield the worst outcomes.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/280964
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 411 (December 2023)
    Schlagworte: socially responsible consumers; social preferences; climate change; externalities; competitive equilibrium; regulation; taxes; caps
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 113 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Mental models of the stock market
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, [Bonn]

    Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents’ mental models – their subjective understanding – of the stock... mehr

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    Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents’ mental models – their subjective understanding – of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents’ reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market effi-ciency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a se-ries of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents’ mental models – a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283301
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 259
    Schlagworte: Kapitalmarktrendite; Erwartungsbildung; Prognose; Ankündigungseffekt; Anlageverhalten; Szenariotechnik; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Shallow meritocracy
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    Meritocracies aspire to reward hard work and promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances into which they were born. However, circumstances often shape the choice to work hard. I show that people's merit judgments are "shallow" and... mehr

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    Meritocracies aspire to reward hard work and promise not to judge individuals by the circumstances into which they were born. However, circumstances often shape the choice to work hard. I show that people's merit judgments are "shallow" and insensitive to this effect. They hold others responsible for their choices, even if these choices have been shaped by unequal circumstances. In an experiment, US participants judge how much money workers deserve for the effort they exert. Unequal circumstances disadvantage some workers and discourage them from working hard. Nonetheless, participants reward the effort of disadvantaged and advantaged workers identically, regardless of the circumstances under which choices are made. For some participants, this reflects their fundamental view regarding fair rewards. For others, the neglect results from the uncertain counterfactual. They understand that circumstances shape choices but do not correct for this because the counterfactual-what would have happened under equal circumstances-remains uncertain.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/279572
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 405 (October 2023)
    Schlagworte: Meritocracy; fairness; responsibility; attitudes towards inequality; redistribution; social preferences; inference; uncertainty; counterfactual thinking
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Mental models of the stock market
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock... mehr

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    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models - a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279782
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 406 (November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Mental models; return expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Mental models of the stock market
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: October 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock... mehr

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    Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general population, US retail investors, US financial professionals, and academic experts. Respondents make return forecasts in scenarios describing stale news about the future earnings streams of companies, and we collect rich data on respondents' reasoning. We document three main results. First, inference from stale news is rare among academic experts but common among households and financial professionals, who believe that stale good news lead to persistently higher expected returns in the future. Second, while experts refer to the notion of market efficiency to explain their forecasts, households and financial professionals reveal a neglect of equilibrium forces. They naively equate higher future earnings with higher future returns, neglecting the offsetting effect of endogenous price adjustments. Third, a series of experimental interventions demonstrate that these naive forecasts do not result from inattention to trading or price responses but reflect a gap in respondents' mental models - a fundamental unfamiliarity with the concept of equilibrium.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/282379
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10691 (2023)
    Schlagworte: mental models; return expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Misperceived social norms and willingness to act against climate change
    Autor*in: Andre, Peter; Boneva, Teodora; Chopra, Felix; Falk, Armin
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    We document the individual willingness to act against climate change and study the role of social norms in a large sample of US adults. Individual beliefs about social norms positively predict pro-climate donations, comparable in strength to... mehr

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    We document the individual willingness to act against climate change and study the role of social norms in a large sample of US adults. Individual beliefs about social norms positively predict pro-climate donations, comparable in strength to universal moral values and economic preferences such as patience and reciprocity. However, we document systematic misperceptions of social norms. Respondents vastly underestimate the prevalence of climate-friendly behaviors and norms. Correcting these misperceptions in an experiment causally raises individual willingness to act against climate change as well as individual support for climate policies. The effects are strongest for individuals who are skeptical about the existence and threat of global warming.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    hdl: 10419/284397
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 414 (February 2024)
    Schlagworte: Climate change; climate behavior; climate policies; social norms; misperception; beliefs; economic preferences; moral values; survey experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 89 Seiten), Illustrationen