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  1. Evaluating combined non-replicable forecasts
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

    Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric... mehr

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    Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert’s touch, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of combined non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves a measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 1765/21944
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Rev.
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2010-74
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftsindikator; Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Schätzung; Taiwan
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 28 S., 176,14 KB), graph. Darst.
  2. What makes a great journal great in the sciences?
    which came first, the chicken or the egg?
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

    The paper is concerned with analysing what makes a great journal great in the sciences, based on quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAM). Alternative RAM are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database... mehr

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    The paper is concerned with analysing what makes a great journal great in the sciences, based on quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAM). Alternative RAM are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database (hereafter ISI). Various ISI RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined and analysed, including the classic 2-year impact factor (2YIF), 5-year impact factor (5YIF), Immediacy (or zero-year impact factor (0YIF)), Eigenfactor, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, Zinfluence, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors), Impact Factor Inflation (IFI), and three new RAM, namely Historical Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (H-STAR), 2 Year Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (2Y-STAR), and Cited Article Influence (CAI). The RAM data are analysed for the 6 most highly cited journals in 20 highly-varied and well-known ISI categories in the sciences, where the journals are chosen on the basis of 2YIF. The application to these 20 ISI categories could be used as a template for other ISI categories in the sciences and social sciences, and as a benchmark for newer journals in a range of ISI disciplines. In addition to evaluating the 6 most highly cited journals in each of 20 ISI categories, the paper also highlights the similarities and differences in alternative RAM, finds that several RAM capture similar performance characteristics for the most highly cited scientific journals, determines that PI-BETA is not highly correlated with the other RAM, and hence conveys additional information regarding research performance. In order to provide a meta analysis summary of the RAM, which are predominantly ratios, harmonic mean rankings are presented of the 13 RAM for the 6 most highly cited journals in each of the 20 ISI categories. It is shown that emphasizing THE impact factor, specifically the 2-year impact factor, of a journal to the exclusion of other informative RAM can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal performance and influence on different disciplines, especially in view of inflated journal self citations.

     

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    hdl: 1765/21946
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Rev.
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2010-75
    Schlagworte: Fachzeitschrift; Bibliometrie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 34 S., 201,05 KB)
  3. Dynamic conditional correlations for asymmetric processes
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

    The paper develops two Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, namely the Wishart DCC (WDCC) model and the Matrix-Exponential Conditional Correlation (MECC) model. The paper applies the WDCC approach to the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and GJR... mehr

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    The paper develops two Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, namely the Wishart DCC (WDCC) model and the Matrix-Exponential Conditional Correlation (MECC) model. The paper applies the WDCC approach to the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and GJR models to propose asymmetric DCC models. We use the standardized multivariate t-distribution to accommodate heavy-tailed errors. The paper presents an empirical example using the trivariate data of the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and Straits Times Indices for estimating and forecasting the WDCC-EGARCH and WDCC-GJR models, and compares the performance with the asymmetric BEKK model. The empirical results show that AIC and BIC favour the WDCC-EGARCH model to the WDCC-GJR and asymmetric BEKK models. Moreover, the empirical results indicate that the WDCC-EGARCH-t model produces reasonable VaR threshold forecasts, which are very close to the nominal 1% to 3% values.

     

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    hdl: 1765/21949
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Rev.
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2010-76
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Theorie; Matrix-Exponential Conditional Correlation model (MECC); Wishart Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (WDCC)
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 25 S., 115,45 KB)
  4. Structure and asymptotic theory for nonlinear models with GARCH errors
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

    Nonlinear time series models, especially those with regime-switching and conditionally heteroskedastic errors, have become increasingly popular in the economics and finance literature. However, much of theresearch has concentrated on the empirical... mehr

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    Nonlinear time series models, especially those with regime-switching and conditionally heteroskedastic errors, have become increasingly popular in the economics and finance literature. However, much of theresearch has concentrated on the empirical applications of various models, with little theoretical or statistical analysis associated with the structure of the processes or the associated asymptotic theory. In this paper, we first derive necessary conditions for strict stationarity and ergodicity of three different specifications of the first-order smooth transition autoregressions with heteroskedastic errors. This is important, among other reasons, to establish the conditions under which the traditional LMlinearity tests based on Taylor expansions are valid. Second, we provide sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi- Maximum Likelihood Estimator for a general nonlinear conditional mean model with first-order GARCH errors.

     

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    hdl: 1765/22216
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Rev.
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2010-79
    Schlagworte: Zeitreihenanalyse; Nichtlineare Regression; ARCH-Modell; Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 27 S., 362,62 KB), graph. Darst.
  5. Moment restriction-based econometric methods
    an overview
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,65
    Schlagworte: Nichtparametrisches Verfahren; Statistischer Test; Robustes Verfahren; Modellierung; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (16 S.)
  6. Robust estimation and forecasting of the capital asset pricing model
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,66
    Schlagworte: Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung; CAPM; Robustes Verfahren; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (23 S.)
  7. Journal impact factor versus eigenfactor and article influence
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,67
    Schlagworte: Fachzeitschrift; Sozialwissenschaft; Bibliometrie; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (14 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. Alternative asymmetric stochastic volatility models
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,70
    Schlagworte: Stochastischer Prozess; Volatilität; ARCH-Modell; Theorie; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (25 S.)
  9. Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,73
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Zeitreihenanalyse; Modellierung; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (49 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Evaluating combined non-replicable forecasts
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,74
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftsindikator; Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Schätzung; Taiwan
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  11. What makes a great journal great in the sciences?
    which came first, the chicken or the egg?
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,75
    Schlagworte: Fachzeitschrift; Bibliometrie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S., 287,68 Kb)
  12. Dynamic conditional correlations for asymmetric processes
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,76
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Theorie; Matrix-Exponential Conditional Correlation model (MECC); Wishart Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (WDCC)
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (25 S.)
  13. Testing the Box-Cox parameter for an integrated process
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,77
    Schlagworte: Volatilität; Stochastischer Prozess; Mean Reversion; Statistische Verteilung; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Box-Cox-Transformation
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (21 S.)
  14. Structure and asymptotic theory for nonlinear models with GARCH Errors
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. of Wollongong, Dep. of Economics, Wollongong

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,79
    Schlagworte: Zeitreihenanalyse; Nichtlineare Regression; ARCH-Modell; Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. How does Zinfluence affect article influence?
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Econometric Institute, Rotterdam

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    hdl: 1765/20376
    Schriftenreihe: Econometric Institute report EI ; 2010,50
    Schlagworte: Bibliometrie; Biowissenschaften
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 14 S.), graph. Darst.
  16. Moment based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. de Economía, PUC-RIO, Rio de Janeiro

    Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models... mehr

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    Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for representing and capturing asymmetric behavior. Most STR models have been applied to univariate processes, and have made a variety of assumptions, including stationary or cointegrated processes, uncorrelated, homoskedastic or conditionally heteroskedastic errors, and weakly exogenous regressors. Under the assumption of exogeneity, the standard method of estimation is nonlinear least squares. The primary purpose of this paper is to relax the assumption of weakly exogenous regressors and to discuss moment based methods for estimating STR models. The paper analyzes the properties of the STR model with endogenous variables by providing a diagnostic test of linearity of the underlying process under endogeneity, developing an estimation procedure and a misspecification test for the STR model, presenting the results of Monte Carlo simulations to show the usefulness of the model and estimation method, and providing an empirical application for inflation rate targeting in Brazil. We show that STR models with endogenous variables can be specified and estimated by a straightforward application of existing results in the literature. -- Smooth transition ; nonlinear models ; nonlinear instrumental variables ; generalized method of moments ; endogeneity ; inflation targeting.

     

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    hdl: 10419/176054
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Departamento de Economía, PUC-RIO ; 571
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. Forecasting realized volatility with linear and nonlinear models
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. de Economía, PUC-RIO, Rio de Janeiro

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of... mehr

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    In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high frequency intra-day returns. We also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging (bootstrap aggregation) in order to specify the models analyzed in this paper. -- Financial econometrics ; volatility forecasting ; neural networks ; nonlinear models ; realized volatility ; bagging

     

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    hdl: 10419/176051
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Departamento de Economía, PUC-RIO ; 568
    Schlagworte: Volatilität; Prognoseverfahren; Nichtlineare Regression; Neuronale Netze; Algorithmus
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (23 S.), graph. Darst.
  18. Aggregation, heterogeneous autoregression and volatility of daily international tourist arrivals and exchange rates
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,2
    Schlagworte: Urlaub; Taiwan; Internationaler Tourismus; Nachfrage; Währungsrisiko; Finanzkrise; ARCH-Modell; Zeit; Schätzung; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (47 S., 914 Kb), graph. Darst.
  19. Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,3
    Schlagworte: Rohstoffderivat; Ölpreis; Volatilität; Kapitaleinkommen; Mathematische Optimierung; Hedging; Zeitreihenanalyse; ARCH-Modell; Portfolio-Management; Theorie; GARCH (BEEK,DDC)
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (26, [1], 4 S., 650 Kb), graph. Darst.
  20. Conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,4
    Schlagworte: Rohstoffderivat; Ölpreis; Volatilität; Kapitaleinkommen; Zeitreihenanalyse; ARCH-Modell; Theorie; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (23, [1] 19 S., 1.06 Mb), graph. Darst.
  21. Do we really need both BEKK and DCC?
    a tale of two multivariate GARCH models
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,6
    Schlagworte: ARCH-Modell; Zeitreihenanalyse; Prognoseverfahren; Modellierung
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (19 S., 108 Kb)
  22. Realized volatility risk
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Univ. of Canterbury, Christchurch

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,26
    Schlagworte: Kapitaleinkommen; Volatilität; Risikomaß; Prognoseverfahren; Schätzung; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (38 S., 1.17 Mb), graph. Darst.
  23. Forecasting realized volatility with linear and nonlinear univariate models
    Erschienen: [2010]
    Verlag:  Dept. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, N.Z

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,28
    Schlagworte: Volatilität; Prognoseverfahren; Nichtlineare Regression; Neuronale Netze; Algorithmus; Stock price forecasting; Financial futures
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (25 p., 374 Kb), graph. Darst.
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    Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-25)

  24. Value-at-risk for country risk ratings
    Erschienen: [2010]
    Verlag:  Dept. of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, N.Z

    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 92 (2010,29)
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Rev.
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,29
    Schlagworte: Länderrisiko; Risikomaß; Bewertung; Indexberechnung; Portfolio-Management; Welt; Country risk; Rate of return; Risk management
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (21 p., 285 Kb), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Archived by the National Library of New Zealand

    Title from PDF cover (viewed on July 21, 2010)

    Hypertext links contained in the archived instances of this title are non-functional

    Includes bibliographical references (p. 15)

  25. Estimating the impact of whaling on global whale watching
    Erschienen: [2010]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, N.Z

    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 92 (2010,30)
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    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Canterbury ; 2010,30
    Schlagworte: Kreuzfahrt; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; Fischerei; Welt; Whale watching; Whale watching; Whale watching industry; Whaling
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 p., 432 Kb), PDF file
    Bemerkung(en):

    Archived by the National Library of New Zealand

    Title from PDF cover (viewed on July 20, 2010)

    "May 24, 2010"--P.2

    Hypertext links contained in the archived instances of this title are non-functional

    Includes bibliographical references (p. 33-34)