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  1. Money and Swedish inflation reconsidered
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Polleit, Thorsten
    Erschienen: 2007
    Verlag:  Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, Hohenheim

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge ; 270
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Geldmenge; Schätzung; P-Stern-Modell; Inflation Targeting ; P-Stern-Modell ; Schweden
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Inflation; (stw)Geldmenge; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)Monetärer Indikator; (stw)Schweden; Preisabstand; Array; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  2. Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (971)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity prices and goods prices movements. The cointegrated VAR model fits with the data for the analysed period from the 1970s until 2008 very well. Our empirical results appear to be overall robust since they pass inter alia a series of recursive tests and are stable for varying compositions of the commodity indices. The empirical evidence is in line with theoretical considerations. The inclusion of commodity prices helps to identify a significant monetary transmission process from global liquidity to other macro variables such as goods prices. We find further support of the conjecture that monetary aggregates convey useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this clear empirical pattern it appears justified to argue that global liquidity merits attention in the same way as the worldwide level of interest rates received in the recent debate about the world savings and liquidity glut as one of the main drivers of the current financial crisis, if not possibly more. -- Commodity prices ; cointegration ; CVAR analysis ; global liquidity ; inflation ; international spillovers

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/36740
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 971
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Liquidität; Geldpolitische Transmission; Rohstoffpreis; Spillover-Effekt; Inflation; Kointegration; Schätzung; OECD-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (26 S., 486 KB), graph. Darst.
  3. Global liquidity, world savings glut and global policy coordination
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (973)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both originate in the combination of economic policies adopted by the two key economies, the US and China. Global financial markets served as a transmission belt, both during the boom as during the bust. In the US, the interaction among the Fed's monetary stance, global real interest rates, distorted incentives in credit markets, and financial innovation created the mix of conditions which first drove growth, but then made the US the epicenter of the global financial crisis. Exchange rate and other economic policies followed by emerging markets such as China and the oil-exporting countries contributed to the US ability to borrow cheaply abroad and thereby finance its unsustainable housing bubble during the upswing. But we find that the key drivers of asset prices are global liquidity conditions. Central banks flooded the markets with ample liquidity. Mopping up this excess liquidity will be one major task for central banks worldwide, which needs to be done in a coordinated fashion. Moreover, our analysis has shown that liquidity will first show up in asset price inflation and only later in consumer goods inflation. This renders it difficult for central bank to exit from their current very expansive monetary policy stance if they continue to focus only on price stability. -- Asset prices ; China ; current account adjustment ; global liquidity ; oil prices ; savings glut ; monetary policy ; policy coordination

     
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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/36714
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 973
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Sparen; Liquidität; Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht; Vermögen; Inflation; Finanzkrise; Welt; USA; China
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (19 S., 245 KB), graph. Darst.
  4. The euro area crisis management framework
    consequences and institutional follow-ups
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (1076)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium-to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a "European semester" and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country's legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund. -- EU governance ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; Stability and Growth Pact

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/49447
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1076
    Schlagworte: Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; Eurozone; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Internationale Finanzhilfe; Schuldenübernahme; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 17 S., 135 KB)
  5. Reinforcing EU governance in times of crisis
    the commission proposals and beyond
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (1082)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal policies, but also macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are sought in the light of the shortcomings of the existing legislation. New enforcement mechanisms are foreseen for non-compliant Member States. In this very crucial and important package of 6 legislative dossiers this paper paper tries to identify critical missing or redundant and/or unworkable elements within the Commission package. Moreover it checks what (if anything) is missing outside and beyond the proposals in order to make the whole package of governance reform complete and workable as, for instance, crisis resolution mechanisms and debt restructuring, EMF, project bonds and Eurobonds. -- EU governance ; European Council ; European Financial Stability Facility ; European Monetary Fund ; policy coordination ; scoreboard ; Stability and Growth Pact

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/49411
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1082
    Schlagworte: Eurozone; Governance-Ansatz; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus; Schuldenübernahme; Staatsbankrott; Finanzkrise; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S., 187 KB)
  6. Driven by the markets?
    ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities market programme
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an "orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism". Many observers argued that, by bond... mehr

    Standort:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 14 (1040)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an "orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism". Many observers argued that, by bond purchases, national fiscal policies could from now on dominate the common monetary policy. This note argues that they are quite right. The ECB has indeed become more dependent in political and financial terms. The ECB has decided to sterilise its bond purchases - compensating those purchases through sales of other bonds or money market instruments to keep the overall money supply unaffected. This is to counter accusations that the ECB is monetizing government debt. This note addresses how effective these sterilisation policies are. One problem inherent in the sterilization approach is that it reshuffles only the liability side of the ECB's balance sheet. It is not well-suited to either diminish the bloated ECB balance sheet or to remove the potentially toxic covered or sovereign bonds from it. In addition, the intake of potentially toxic assets as collateral and by outright purchases in the central bank balance sheet artificially keeps the asset prices up and does not prevent the (quite intransparent) risk transfer from one group of countries to another to occur. Finally, sterilization takes place in a setting of still ultra-lax monetary policies, i.e. of new liquidity-enhancing operations with unlimited allotment, and, hence, does not appear to be overly irrelevant. A credible strategy to deal with the financial crisis should deal primarily with the asset side of the ECB balance sheet. [...] -- Accountability ; bail-out ; bond purchases ; central bank independence ; insolvency risk ; Securities Markets Programme ; transparency

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/49436
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1040
    Schlagworte: Schuldenübernahme; Öffentliche Anleihe; Staatsbankrott; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Zentralbankunabhängigkeit; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 15 S., 139 KB)
  7. (How) do the ECB and the fed react to financial market uncertainty?
    the Taylor rule in times of crisis
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,1)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate spreads and asset price infl ation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also likely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis. Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth, consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88238
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-01
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (30 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,2)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity prices and goods prices movements. The cointegrated VAR model fits with the data for the analyzed period from the 1970s until 2008 very well. Our empirical results appear to be overall robust since they pass inter alia a series of recursive tests and are stable for varying compositions of the commodity indices. The empirical evidence is in line with theoretical considerations. The inclusion of commodity prices helps to identify a significant monetary transmission process from global liquidity to other macro variables such as goods prices. We find further support of the conjecture that monetary aggregates convey useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this clear empirical pattern it appears justified to argue that global liquidity merits attention in the same way as the worldwide level of interest rates received in the recent debate about the world savings and liquidity glut as one of the main drivers of the current financial crisis, if not possibly more.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88228
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-02
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Is euro area demand (still) stable?
    cointegrated VAR versus single equation techniques
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Czudaj, Robert
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,3)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FMOLS, CCR and DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88215
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-03
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (40 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,4)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council’s voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank presidents, i.e. their desired interest rates. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we do not simulate an average of the decisions but look at every relevant point in time separately.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88224
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-04
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  11. Financial crisis, global liquidity and monetary exit strategies
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-bystep rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,6)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-bystep rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead – perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88231
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-06
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S.)
  12. How much fiscal backing must the ECB have?
    the euro area is not the Philippines
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,7)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs "fiscal back-up" to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues that fiscal backing is not necessary for the ECB for three reasons. Firstly, the ECB balance sheet risk is small compared to the FED and BoE as it neither increased its quasi-fiscal operations as much as the Fed or the BoE nor did it engage to a very large extent in outright bond purchases during the financial crisis. Secondly, the ECB's specific accounting principles of repo operations provide for more clarity and earlier recognition of losses. Thirdly, the ECB can draw on substantial reserves of the euro area national banks.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88237
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-07
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (16 S.)
  13. Driven by the markets?
    ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,10)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    After the dramatic rescue package for the euro area, the governing council of the European Central Bank decided to purchase European government bonds - to ensure an “orderly monetary policy transmission mechanism”. Many observers argued that, by bond purchases, national fiscal policies could from now on dominate the common monetary policy. This note argues that they are quite right. The ECB has indeed become more dependent in political and financial terms. The ECB has decided to sterilise its bond purchases - compensating those purchases through sales of other bonds or money market instruments to keep to overall money supply unaffectted. This is to counter accusations that the ECB is monetizing government debt. This note addresses how effective these sterilisation policies are. One problem inherent in the sterilization approach is that it reshuffles only the liability side of the ECB’s balance sheet. It is not well-suited to either diminish the bloated ECB balance sheet or to remove the potentially toxic covered or sovereign bonds from it. In addition, the intake of potentially toxic assets as collateral and by outright purchases in the central bank balance sheet artificially keeps the asset prices up and does not prevent the (quite intransparent) risk transfer from one group of countries to another to occur. Finally, sterilization takes place in a setting of still ultra-lax monetary policies, i.e. liquidity-enhancing operations with unlimited allotment, and, hence, appears to be irrelevant. A credible strategy to deal with the financial crisis should deal primarily with the asset side of the ECB balance sheet ...

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88200
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-10
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (12 S.)
  14. The euro area crisis management framework
    consequences and institutional follow-ups
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426 (2010,12)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The current instruments in the EU to deal with debt and liquidity crises include among others the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM). Both are temporary in nature (3 years). In terms of an efficient future crisis management framework one has to ask what follows after the EFSF and the EFSM expire in 3 years time. In this vein, this briefing paper addresses the question of the political and economic medium- to long-term consequences of the recent decisions. Moreover, we assess what needs to be done using this window of opportunity of the coming 3 years. Which institutions need to be formalized, into what format, in order to achieve a coherent whole structure? This briefing paper presents and evaluates alternatives as regards the on-going debate on establishing permanent instruments to support the stability of the euro. Among them are the enhancement of the effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact combined with the introduction of a “European semester” and a macroeconomic surveillance and crisis mechanism, fiscal limits hard-coded into each country’s legislation in the form of automatic, binding and unchangeable rules and, as the preferred solution, the European Monetary Fund.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/88195
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-12
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (17 S.)
  15. Reinforcing EU governance in times of crisis
    the commission proposals and beyond
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal... mehr

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    The recent extensive package introduced by the Commission is the "most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance in the EU and the euro area since the launch of the Economic and Monetary Union. Broader and enhanced surveillance of fiscal policies, but also macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are sought in the light of the shortcomings of the existing legislation. New enforcement mechanisms are foreseen for non-compliant Member States. In this very crucial and important package of 6 legislative dossiers this paper paper tries to identify critical missing or redundant and/or unworkable elements within the Commission package. Moreover it checks what (if anything) is missing outside and beyond the proposals in order to make the whole package of governance reform complete and workable as, for instance, crisis resolution mechanisms and debt restructuring, EMF, project bonds and Eurobonds.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88233
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 10-14
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (19 S.)
  16. Money and inflation
    lessons from the US for ECB monetary policy
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Polleit, Thorsten
    Erschienen: 2007
    Verlag:  ROME, Düsseldorf

    We turn our attention to the role of money for determining nominal magnitudes. Using US data, we find that the aggregate “nominal output plus and stock market capitalisation” is closely related to the money stock, lending support to one of Milton... mehr

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    We turn our attention to the role of money for determining nominal magnitudes. Using US data, we find that the aggregate “nominal output plus and stock market capitalisation” is closely related to the money stock, lending support to one of Milton Friedman’s key monetarist propositions. This finding should be particularly important for ECB monetary policy: an inflation-free euro plays a crucial role for European economic and political integration. We conclude that monetary policy must keep a very close eye on money supply if it wants to prevent consumer and/or asset price inflation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/88194
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; 07-02
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (21 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model voting power of the core versus the periphery
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme... mehr

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    We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of games, we try to close three of these gaps. First, we integrate specific preferences of national central bank presidents, i.e. their desired interest rates. Second, we address the agenda-setting power of the ECB president. Third, we do not simulate an average of the decisions but look at every relevant point in time separately. -- Euro area ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy ; rotation ; voting rights

     
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    hdl: 10419/36708
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 983
    Schlagworte: Zentralbank; Abstimmungsregel; Reform; Abstimmung; Abstimmungsspiel; Eurozone; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S., 211 KB), graph. Darst.
  18. Is euro area money demand (still) stable?
    cointegrated VAR versus single equation techniques
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Czudaj, Robert
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability... mehr

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    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FMOLS, CCR and DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies. -- ARDL model ; cointegration ; euro area ; financial crisis ; money demand

     
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    hdl: 10419/36758
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 982
    Schlagworte: Geldnachfrage; Eurozone; Finanzkrise; Kointegration; Schätzung; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (40 S., 1.07 MB), graph. Darst.
  19. Energy consumption and economic growth
    new insights into the cointegration relationship
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Haan, Frauke de
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP, including energy prices, for 25 OECD countries from 1981 to 2007. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows to distinguish between developments on an international and a national level as drivers of the long-run relationship. Indeed, cointegration between the common components of the underlying variables indicates that international developments dominate the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy consumption is price-inelastic. Causality tests indicate the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. -- Energy consumption ; panel unit roots ; panel cointegration ; vector error-correction models ; Granger causality

     
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    hdl: 10419/36712
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 1017
    Schlagworte: Energiekonsum; Wirtschaftswachstum; Kointegration; Kausalanalyse; Energiepreis; Preiselastizität; Schätzung; OECD-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (16 S., 152 KB)
  20. Financial crisis, global liquidity and monetary exit strategies
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must... mehr

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    We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off. Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead - perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area. -- Exit strategies ; international policy coordination and transmission ; open market operations ; unorthodox monetary policy

     
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    hdl: 10419/36746
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 995
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Liquidität; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Geldmenge; Inflationsbekämpfung; EU-Staaten; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S., 221 KB)
  21. How much fiscal backing must the ECB have?
    the euro area is not the Philippines
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some... mehr

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    The ECB has accepted increasing amounts of rubbish collateral since the crisis started leading to exposure to serious private sector credit risk (i.e. default risk) on its collateralised lending and reverse operations ("repo"). This has led some commentators to argue that the ECB needs "fiscal back-up" to cover any potential losses to be able to continue pursuing price stability. This Brief argues that fiscal backing is not necessary for the ECB for three reasons. Firstly, the ECB balance sheet risk is small compared to the FED and BoE as it neither increased its quasi-fiscal operations as much as the Fed or the BoE nor did it engage to a very large extent in outright bond purchases during the financial crisis. Secondly, the ECB's specific accounting principles of repo operations provide for more clarity and earlier recognition of losses. Thirdly, the ECB can draw on substantial reserves of the euro area national banks. -- Central bank independence ; central bank capital ; counterparty risk ; repurchase agreements ; collateral ; fiscal backing ; liquidity ; haircuts

     
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    hdl: 10419/36733
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 996
    Schlagworte: Zentralbankunabhängigkeit; Eigenkapital; Finanzkrise; Kreditsicherung; Repo-Geschäft; Bankenliquidität; Öffentliche Anleihe; Eurozone
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (15 S., 95 KB)
  22. Is euro area money demand (still) stable?
    cointegrated VAR versus single equation techniques
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Czudaj, Robert
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  RWI, Essen

    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FM-OLS, CCR and DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FMOLS, CCR and DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies. -- ARDL model ; cointegration ; euro area ; financial crisis ; money demand In diesem Artikel präsentieren wir ein für den Euroraum empirisch stabiles Geldnachfragemodell. Die Analyse mit einem Stützzeitraum bis einschließlich 2009:2 deutet darauf hin, dass die derzeitige Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise keinen erkennbaren Einfluss auf die Stabilität der Geldnachfragefunktion des Euroraums ausübt. Zudem wird der Einsatz von Einzelgleichungsschätzverfahren wie dem ARDL Ansatz sowie FM-OLS, CCR und DOLS mit der üblichen kointegrierten Johansen VAR Prozedur verglichen.

     
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    hdl: 10419/37011
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; 171
    Schlagworte: Geldnachfrage; Eurozone; Finanzkrise; Kointegration; Schätzung; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (43 S.), graph. Darst.
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    Parallel als Druckausg. erschienen
  23. (How) do the ECB and the Fed react to financial market uncertainty?
    the Taylor rule in times of crisis
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  DIW, Berlin

    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in... mehr

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    We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these variables over time. We argue that measures of money and credit growth, interest rate spreads and asset price inflation should be added to the classical Taylor rule because these variables are proxies of a change in the equilibrium interest rate and are, thus, also ikely to have played a major role in setting policy rates during the crisis. Our empirical results gained from a state-space model and GMM estimations reveal that, as far as the Fed is concerned, the impact of consumer price inflation, and money and credit growth turns negative during the crisis while the sign of the asset price inflation coefficient turns positive. Thus we are able to establish significant differences in the parameters of the reaction functions of the Fed before and after the start of the subprime crisis. In case of the ECB, there is no evidence of a change in signs. Instead, the positive reaction to credit growth, consumer and house price inflation becomes even stronger than before. Moreover we find evidence of a less inertial policy of both the Fed and the ECB during the crisis. -- Subprime crisis ; federal reserve ; European Central Bank ; equilibrium real interest rate ; Taylor rule

     
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    hdl: 10419/36736
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 972
    Schlagworte: Taylor-Regel; Finanzkrise; Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Realzins; Schätzung; Vergleich; USA; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (29 S., 282 KB)
  24. Finanzkrise, globale Liquidität und makroökonomischer Exit
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnabl, Gunther
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    A series of crisis and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government... mehr

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    A series of crisis and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, the paper sheds light on the probability of a coordinated monetary policy exit between the US and the euro area. Second, it discusses the options for a coordination of the supranational monetary policy with national fiscal policies in the European Monetary Union. Third, it analyses the fiscal activities of the European Central Bank in the context of sterilized outright government bond purchases. The paper concludes that - due to the complexity of the coordination task - the coordination of the non-exit is more likely than the coordination of the exit. -- Geldpolitik ; Fiskalpolitik ; monetäre Überinvestitionstheorien ; internationale Politikkoordination ; Exit

     
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    hdl: 10419/45653
    Schriftenreihe: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 92
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Liquidität; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Geldmenge; Inflationsbekämpfung; EU-Staaten; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 21 S., 170,31 KB)
  25. Finanzkrise, globale Liquidität und makroökonomischer Exit
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schnabl, Gunther
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Univ. Duisburg-Essen, Fak. Wirtschaftswiss., Essen

    A series of crises and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government... mehr

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    A series of crises and emergency interest rate cuts has brought global interest rates towards zero and government debt to historical records. The paper discusses the exit options from unconventional monetary policies and unsustainable government debt. First, the paper sheds light on the probability of a coordinated monetary policy exit between the US and the euro area. Second, it discusses the options for a coordination of the supranational monetary policy with national fiscal policies in the European Monetary Union. Third, it analyses the fiscal activities of the European Central Bank in the context of sterilized outright government bond purchases. The paper concludes that - due to the complexity of the coordination task - the coordination of the non-exit is more likely than the coordination of the exit.

     
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    hdl: 10419/43590
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeitrag aus der Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Duisburg-Essen, Campus Essen ; 184
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Liquidität; Geldpolitik; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Geldmenge; Inflationsbekämpfung; EU-Staaten; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 14 S., 82,2 KB)