Direkt zur Hauptnavigation springen Direkt zum Inhalt springen
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Letzte Suchanfragen

Ergebnisse für *

Zeige Ergebnisse 1 bis 25 von 86.

  1. On the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates
    evidence from the Southern Cone = Sobre la relación entre tipos de cambio y tipos de interés: evidencia del Cono Sud
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Geisslreither, Kai; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Univ. Hohenheim, Stuttgart

    Standort:
    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Schriftenreihe: Hohenheimer Diskussionsbeiträge ; 232
    Schlagworte: Wechselkurs; Zins; Volatilität; Wechselkurssystem; Schätzung; Mercosur-Staaten
    Umfang: 27, XI, III S, graph. Darst
  2. Challenges to ECB credibility
    Beteiligt: Belke, Ansgar (Mitwirkender)
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Beteiligt: Belke, Ansgar (Mitwirkender)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QM 333 ; QB 400 ; QB 910 ; QM 333 ; QB 400
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 225
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Notenbank; Glaubwürdigkeit
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Geldpolitik; (stw)Zentralbank; (stw)Glaubwürdigkeit; (stw)Eurozone; (stw)EU-Staaten; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 65 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
  3. Privatization in Austria
    some theoretical reasons and first results about the privatization proceeds
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Schneider, Friedrich
    Erschienen: 2003
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910 ; QB 910
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520), Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 229
    Schlagworte: Privatisierung; Ökonomische Theorie der Politik; Public-Choice-Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Privatisierung; (stw)Neue politische Ökonomie; (stw)Österreich; Online-Publikation; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch
    Umfang: 68 S., graph. Darst., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 62 - 66
  4. Institutions and structural unemployment
    do capital market imperfections matter?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Fehn, Rainer
    Erschienen: 2000
    Verlag:  Inst. für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Stuttgart

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    DDC Klassifikation: Wirtschaft (330); Handel, Kommunikation, Verkehr (380); Management und unterstützende Tätigkeiten (650); Industrielle Fertigung (670)
    Auflage/Ausgabe: (Preliminary version!)
    Schriftenreihe: Diskussionsbeiträge aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Hohenheim ; Nr. 190
    Schlagworte: Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; Kapitalmarkt; Unvollkommener Markt; Lohnstarrheit; Deregulierung; Risikokapital; Beschäftigungswirkung; Schätzung; Theorie; :z Geschichte 1986-1999
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)1986-1999; (stw)Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; (stw)Finanzmarkt; (stw)Unvollkommener Markt; (stw)Lohnrigidität; (stw)Arbeitsmarktflexibilität; (stw)Risikokapital; (stw)Beschäftigungseffekt; (stw)Schätzung; (stw)Theorie; (stw)OECD-Staaten; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch; Arbeitspapier; Graue Literatur; Buch; Online-Publikation
    Umfang: 36, [14] S., 30 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 34 - 36
  5. Institutions and structural unemployment
    do capital market imperfections matter?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Fehn, Rainer
    Erschienen: [2000]
    Verlag:  Ruhr-Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Bochum

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
  6. Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US
    a SEIVAR-based analysis
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Goemans, Pascal
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Leipzig]

    We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DSM 13
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during uncertain times. The endogenous reaction of macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer confidence play an important role in explaining the non-linear impact of government spending. In contrast to other types of government spending, research and development expenditures reduce uncertainty and have an expansionary effect on output during uncertain times.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/203538
    Auflage/Ausgabe: First draft: December 18, 2018, this draft: September 8, 2019
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies
    global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Leipzig]

    This paper investigates the empirical significance of push- and pull factors of different types of capital flows - FDI, portfolio and "others" (including loans) - to emerging market and developing economies. Based on an extensive quarterly mixed... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DSM 13
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper investigates the empirical significance of push- and pull factors of different types of capital flows - FDI, portfolio and "others" (including loans) - to emerging market and developing economies. Based on an extensive quarterly mixed time-series panel dataset for 32 emerging market and developing economies from 2009 to 2017, we rigorously test down broadly specified empirical models for the three types of capital inflows to parsimonious final models in a Hendry-type fashion. Regarding push factors, our study focuses on the relative importance of global liquidity and economic policy uncertainty vis-à-vis country-specific pull factors when assessing the drivers of capital flows to a broad set of emerging market and developing economies. Global liquidity, economic policy uncertainty and other risk factors, such as the US yield spread, turn out to be the most significant drivers of portfolio flows, but are also relevant to the other two categories of flows. Our capital flow-type specific estimation results underscore the need for policymakers to analyse the composition of observed capital inflows to assess vulnerabilities related to external financing and safeguard financial stability.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/203629
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  8. Trade and capital flows: substitutes or complements?
    an empirical investigation
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002-2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207390
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12564
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry‐specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry‐specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207391
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12565
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the capital stock and, explicitly, of stochastic changes on the interest rate-investment hysteresis. Starting with hysteresis effects on a microeconomic level of a single firm, we apply an explicit aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate hysteresis effects on a macroeconomic level. Based on our simple model we are able to obtain some conclusions about the efficacy of a central bank's interest rate policy, e.g. in times of low or even zero interest rates and high uncertainty, in terms of stimulating macroeconomic investment.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207392
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12566
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment
    evidence for the Euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: August 2019
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call 'play' area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207393
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 12567
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. QE in the euro area
    has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The asset purchase program of the Euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB's (Public Sector Purchase Program) PSPP program involved the purchase of the bonds of... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The asset purchase program of the Euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB's (Public Sector Purchase Program) PSPP program involved the purchase of the bonds of peripheral Euro area governments, which were clearly not riskless. Moreover, these purchases were undertaken by national central banks at their own risk. Intuition suggests, and a simple model confirms, that, ceteris paribus, large purchases of the bonds of the own sovereign by the national central bank should increase the risk for the remaining private bond holders. This might seem incompatible with the observation that risk spreads on peripheral bonds fell when the Euro area's QE was announced. However, the initial fall in risk premia might have been due to the expectation of the bond being effective in lowering risk free rates. When these expectations were disappointed risk premia went back to their initial level. Formal statistical test confirm that indeed risk premia on peripheral bonds did not follow a random walk (contrary to what is assumed in event studies). Nor did the announcements of bond buying change the stochastics of these premia. One should thus not expect the impact effect to have been permanent.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206877
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 01 (March 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The interest rate is generally considered as an important driver of macroeconomic investment. As an innovation, this paper derives the exact shape of the "hysteretic" impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under the scenarios of both certainty and uncertainty. We capture the direct interest rate-hysteresis on the investments and the capital stock and, explicitly, of stochastic changes on the interest rate-investment hysteresis. Starting with hysteresis effects on a microeconomic level of a single firm, we apply an explicit aggregation procedure to derive the interest rate hysteresis effects on a macroeconomic level. Based on our simple model we are able to obtain some conclusions about the efficacy of a central bank's interest rate policy, e.g. in times of low or even zero interest rates and high uncertainty, in terms of stimulating macroeconomic investment.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206878
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 02 (March 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  14. Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: June 2019
    Verlag:  Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Essen, Germany

    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 10
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared. Using quarterly real-time data from 1999 to the beginning of 2019, we find that an estimated Orphanides-Rule performs best in nowcasts, while it is outperformed by an augmented Taylor-Rule when it comes to forecasts. However, also a no-change rule delivers good results for forecasts, which is hard to beat for most policy rules. In diesem Artikel vergleichen wir zwei Arten geldpolitischer Regeln - die Orphanides- und die Taylor-Regel - hinsichtlich ihrer Prognosefähigkeit des Leitzinses der Europäischen Zentralbank miteinander. Es werden die Standardregeln, geschätzte Regeln und erweiterte Regeln miteinander verglichen. Für Quartalsdaten in Echtzeit im Zeitraum 1999 bis Anfang 2019 ergibt sich, dass eine geschätzte Orphanides-Regel am geeignetsten im Nowcast ist, während diese Regel schlechter als erweiterte Taylor-Regeln im Falle von Zinsprognosen abschneidet. Zudem liefert eine Regel, die keine Änderungen des Zinssatzes annimmt, ebenfalls gute Vorhersagen, die für die meisten geldpolitischen Regeln schwer zu schlagen sind.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867889445
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201014
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #815
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. From cash to central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies
    a balancing act between modernity and monetary stability
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Beretta, Edoardo
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Essen, Germany

    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 10
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and saving) instruments like paper money. Which aspects of modern payments systems could contribute to improve the way of functioning of today's globalized economy? And, which might even threaten the above mentioned instable equilibrium? This survey-paper aims, precisely, at giving some preliminary answers to a complex - therefore, ongoing - debate at the scientific as well as the banking and the political level. Der vorliegende Beitrag befasst sich mit dem sensiblen Gleichgewicht zwischen der Modernisierung von Währungs- und Bankensystemen durch digitale Währungen (entweder von der Notenbank oder privat ausgegeben) einerseits und der Gewährleistung von Finanzstabilität andererseits, die auch mithilfe (manchmal als veraltet geltender) Zahlungs- und Sparinstrumente wie Papiergeld gesichert wird. Welche Eigenschaften moderner Zahlungsmethoden könnten dazu beitragen, die Funktionsmechanismen der heutigen globalisierten Wirtschaft zu verbessern? Und welche könnten das obige empfindliche Gleichgewicht bedrohen? Dieser Übersichtsbeitrag, der von Krypto- zu Digitalwährungen im Allgemeinen und Bargeldabschaffung bzw. -obergrenzen im Speziellen ein breites Spektrum abdeckt und gegenseitige Interaktionen untersucht, zielt darauf ab, in einer komplexen sowie fortwährenden Debatte einige vorläufige Antworten auf wissenschaftlicher, bankpraktischer und währungspolitischer Ebene zu formulieren.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867889452
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201015
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #816
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Datei gelöscht auf Wunsch der Autoren
  16. Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment
    evidence for the euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Essen, Germany

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 10
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call 'play' area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia. Der Zins ist ein wichtiges geldpolitisches Instrument zur Steuerung von Investitionen, um Preisstabilität zu gewährleisten. Im derzeitigen Niedrigzinsumfeld rücken Implikationen der genauen Gestalt und der Größenordnung des Zins-Investitions-Nexus für die Effektivität der Europäischen Zentralbank in den Vordergrund. Wir stellen zunächst den theoretischen Rahmen hysteretischer Effekte von Zinsänderungen auf makroökonomische Investitionen unter Sicherheit und unter Unsicherheit vor. Eine mögliche Störung des geldpolitischen Transmissionsmechanismus durch Unsicherheit über die Zinsentwicklung wird hierin untersucht. In diesem nicht-linearen Modell kommt es zu starken Reaktionen der Investitionsaktivität, sobald der Zins eine sogenannte Zone der Inaktivität verlässt, die wir 'play' nennen. Wir verwenden im Folgenden einen Algorithmus, welcher pfadabhängige play-Hysterese abbildet. Wir schätzen Zins-Hysterese unter Verwendung von Daten über inländische Investitionen und Zinsen auf Unternehmenskredite in 5 Ländern der Eurozone für den Zeitraum 2001Q1 bis 2018Q1. In den meisten Ländern finden wir hysteretische Effekte von Zinsänderungen auf Investitionen, deren Gestalt und Umfang sich nach Ländern stark unterscheiden. Dies stellt eine Herausforderung für eine gemeinsame Geldpolitik dar. Hingegen verändert die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheitsvariablen die Ergebnisse kaum. Dies kann darauf zurückgeführt werden, dass Zinsen implizit - bspw. über Risikoaufschläge - bereits Unsicherheit in Bezug auf Investitionsentscheidungen beinhalten.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867889469
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201016
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #817
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Universität Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Essen, Germany

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 10
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry-specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867889476
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201017
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #818
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union
    Autor*in: Baas, Timo; Belke, Ansgar
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    For more than two decades now, current-account imbalances are a crucial issue in the international policy debate as they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows that internal... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    For more than two decades now, current-account imbalances are a crucial issue in the international policy debate as they threaten the stability of the world economy. More recently, the government debt crisis of the European Union shows that internal current account imbalances inside a currency union may also add to these risks. Oil price fluctuations and a contracting monetary policy that reacts on oil prices, previously discussed to affect the current account may also be a threat to the currency union by changing internal imbalances. Therefore, in this paper, we analyze the impact of oil price shocks on current account imbalances within a currency union. Differences in institutions, especially labor market institutions and trade result in an asymmetric reaction to an otherwise symmetric shock. In this context, we show that oil price shocks can have a long-lasting impact on internal balances, as the exchange rate adjustment mechanism is not available. The common monetary policy authority, however, can reduce such effects by specifying an optimum monetary policy target. Nevertheless, we also show that there is no single best solution. CPI, core CPI or an asymmetric CPI target all come at a cost either regarding an increase in unemployment or increasing imbalances.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206879
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 03 (May 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten)
  19. Trade and capital flows
    substitutes or complements? : an empirical investigation
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Domnick, Clemens
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper examines the linkages between the trade of goods and financial assets. Do both flows behave as complements (implying a positive correlation) or as substitutes (negative correlation)? Although a classic topic in international macroeconomics, the empirical evidence has remained relatively scarce so far, in particular for the Euro area where trade and financial imbalance played a prominent role in the build-up of the European sovereign debt crisis. Consequentially, we use a novel dataset, providing estimates for financial flows and its four main categories for 42 countries and covering the period from 2002-2012, to test the so-called trade-finance nexus. Since theoretical models stress that both flows might be influencing each other simultaneously, we introduce a novel time-varying instrumental variable based on capital control restrictions to estimate a causal effect. The results of the gravity regressions support theories that underline the complementarity between exports and capital flows. When testing the trade-finance nexus for different types of capital flows, the estimated coefficient is most pronounced for foreign direct investment, in line with theories stressing informational frictions. Robustness checks in the form of different estimation methods, alternative proxies for capital flows and sample splits confirm the positive relationship. Interestingly, the trade-finance nexus does not differ among countries belonging to the EMU, the European Union or among core and peripheral Euro area countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206880
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 04 (May 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared. Using quarterly real-time data from 1999 to the beginning of 2019, we find that an estimated Orphanides-Rule performs best in nowcasts, while it is outperformed by an augmented Taylor-Rule when it comes to forecasts. However, also a no-change rule delivers good results for forecasts, which is hard to beat for most policy rules.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206882
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 06 (June 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  21. Did interest rates at the zero lower bound affect lending of commercial banks?
    evidence for the euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The paper examines the bank lending activities of banks in a low interest rate environment. External financing of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the euro area primarily takes place via bank loans and not through capital markets. Based on the Bankscope database, bank balance sheet data is utilized. Control variables are included, such as for the system of banking regulation. The panel estimation includes 706 banks from 15 Euro area member states and is conducted for the period 2000 to 2015. All models show a significant positive impact of lower interest rates on net lending. In particular, the results do not indicate that credit is restricted if interest rates move towards the zero-lower bound.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206883
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 07 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The yen exchange rate and the hollowing out of the Japanese industry
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Erschienen: [2019
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry‐specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206884
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 08 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. From cash to central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies
    a balancing act between modernity and monetary stability
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Beretta, Edoardo
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The paper explores the precarious balance between modernizing monetary systems by means of digital currencies (either issued by the central bank itself or independently) and safeguarding financial stability as also ensured by tangible payment (and saving) instruments like paper money. Which aspects of modern payments systems could contribute to improve the way of functioning of today's globalized economy? And, which might even threaten the above mentioned instable equilibrium? This survey-paper aims, precisely, at giving some preliminary answers to a complex - therefore, ongoing - debate at scientific as well as banking and political level.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206885
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 09 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Bemerkung(en):

    Datei gelöscht auf Wunsch der Autoren
  24. Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment
    evidence for the euro area
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ROME, Research On Money in the Economy, Duesseldorf, Germany

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank’s... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 426
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank’s effectiveness in a low interest rate environment gain center stage. We first present a theoretical framework of the hysteretic impact of changes in the interest rate on macroeconomic investment under certainty and under uncertainty to investigate whether uncertainty over future interest rates in the Euro area hampers monetary policy transmission. In this non-linear model, strong reactions in investment activity occur as soon as changes of the interest rate exceed a zone of inaction, that we call 'play' area. Second, we apply an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis to estimate investment hysteresis using data on domestic investment and interest rates on corporate loans for 5 countries of the Euro area in the period ranging from 2001Q1 to 2018Q1. We find hysteretic effects of interest rate changes on investment in most countries. However, their shape and magnitude differ widely across countries which poses a challenge for a unified monetary policy. By introducing uncertainty into the regressions, the results do not change much which may be due to the interest rate implicitly incorporating uncertainty effects in investment decisions, e.g. by risk premia

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206886
    Schriftenreihe: ROME discussion paper series ; no 2019, 10 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US
    a SEIVAR-based analysis
    Autor*in: Belke, Ansgar; Goemans, Pascal
    Erschienen: Oktober 2019
    Verlag:  Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB), Department of Economics, Bochum, Germany

    We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 10
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during uncertain times. The endogenous reaction of macroeconomic uncertainty plays an important role in explaining the non-linear impact of government spending. In contrast to other types of government spending, research and development expenditures reduce uncertainty and have an expansionary effect on output during uncertain times. Die Studie untersucht, ob die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen unerwarteter Staatsausgabenerhöhungen mit dem vorherrschenden Grad an Unsicherheit in einer Volkswirtschaft zusammenhängen. Anhand von US Nachkriegsdaten und einem SEIVAR finden wir positive Effekte auf die Wirtschaftsleistung in Zeiten niedriger Unsicherheit und negative Effekte in Zeiten sehr hoher Unsicherheit. Die endogene Reaktion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Unsicherheit stellt einen wichtigen Faktor für die Erklärung der nichtlinearen Auswirkungen der Staatsausgaben dar. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem eine Abhängigkeit der Effekte von der Art der Staatsausgaben. Im Gegensatz zu anderen Arten von Staatsausgaben reduzieren Forschungs- und Entwicklungsausgaben den Grad gesamtwirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit und wirken in unsicheren Zeiten expansiv auf die Wirtschaftsleistung.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783867889599
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/206398
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #826
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen