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  1. EME financial conditions
    which global shocks matter?
    Autor*in: Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of global structural shocks for changes in financial conditions across a sample of emerging market economies. We disentangle four key drivers of global financial markets (oil... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of global structural shocks for changes in financial conditions across a sample of emerging market economies. We disentangle four key drivers of global financial markets (oil supply shocks, global economic news shocks, US-specific economic news shocks and US monetary shocks) and show that these global factors account for about half of the variation in risky asset prices across EMEs. The influence of global factors for EME interest rates and currencies is much smaller, suggesting that factors beyond the identified global shocks (e.g. domestic or regional shocks) might be more important. In contrast to the recent literature on the global financial cycle which has emphasised the prominent role of US monetary policy, we find that although US monetary shocks have some influence in shaping EME financial markets, the broader global environment plays a significantly stronger role.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289935449
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208316
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2282 (May 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Global growth on life support?
    the contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis
    Autor*in: Baumann, Ursel; Lodge, David; Miescu, Mirela S.
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper compares the role of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in advanced and emerging economies. Using a model with a hierarchical structure we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the groups of... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper compares the role of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in advanced and emerging economies. Using a model with a hierarchical structure we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the groups of advanced and emerging countries. Our results provide evidence that fiscal policy effects are heterogeneous across countries, with higher multipliers in advanced economies compared to emerging markets, while monetary policy is found to have more homogeneous effects on GDP. We then quantify the policy contribution on GDP growth in the last decade by means of a structural counterfactual analysis based on conditional forecasts. We find that global GDP growth benefited from substantial policy support during the global financial crisis but policy tightening thereafter, particularly fiscal consolidation, acted as a significant drag on the subsequent global recovery. In addition we show that the role of policy has differed across countries. Specifically, in advanced economies, highly accommodative monetary policy has been counteracted by strong fiscal consolidation. By contrast, in emerging economies, monetary policy has been less accommodative since the global recession.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289935104
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208282
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2248 (March 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  3. Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China
    Autor*in: Lodge, David; Soudan, Michel
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of... mehr

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates and interbank spreads, bond returns, and credit and equity flows. We impose sign restrictions on the impulse response functions to identify shocks to financial conditions and shocks to monetary policy. The model suggests that monetary policy, credit and financial conditions have played an important role in shaping China's business cycle. Using conditional scenarios, we examine the role of credit in shaping economic outcomes in China over the past decade. Those scenarios underscore the important role of credit growth in supporting activity during the past decade, particularly the surge in credit following the global financial crisis in 2008. The financial tightening since the end of 2016 has contributed to a modest slowing of credit growth and activity.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289935067
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208278
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2244 (February 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen