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  1. Public debt in the "new normal"
    a Schumpeterian perspective on fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Bofinger, Peter
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) of Hans-Böckler-Foundation, Düsseldorf, Germany

    This paper shows that important insights for fiscal policy can be derived from Joseph Schumpeter's academic work. This concerns his fundamental distinction between theories in which the monetary sphere is identical with the real sphere ("real... mehr

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    This paper shows that important insights for fiscal policy can be derived from Joseph Schumpeter's academic work. This concerns his fundamental distinction between theories in which the monetary sphere is identical with the real sphere ("real analysis"), and theories in which financial sphere is independent of the real sphere. From the "monetary analysis" propagated by Schumpeter follows that the financing of government investment does not depend on household saving. Thus, Schumpeter's growth theory shows that credit-financed investment, which leads to an innovative use of existing resources, plays a decisive role in economic development. For fiscal policy, this results in the model of the "entrepreneurial state" (Mazzucato) as an engine for future investment. This model goes far beyond the narrow portrayal of government debt in "real analysis" of the neoclassical theory, which assigns the state merely the role of a capital destroyer. But it also offers a broader perspective than that of monetary Keynesian theory, including MMT, in which government debt is seen to serve only to produce full employment (but not beyond). Schumpeter's rejection of the concept of a purely goods-based real interest rate is also innovative. It provides the basis for the strategy of "yield curve control," in which the long-term interest rate is directly controlled by the central bank so that the sustainability of government debt is not determined by capital markets.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Macroeconomic Policy Institute ; no. 215 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; public debt; monetary economics; economic growth; full employment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 94 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Sovereign debt vulnerabilities in Asia and the Pacific
    Autor*in: Ferrarini, Benno; Dagli, Suzette; Mariano, Paul
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Three major global crises since 2008 have pushed up public and external debt ratios and associated risks across much of Asia and the Pacific. This is confirmed by debt ratio projections and evidence of widening pockets of vulnerability picked up by... mehr

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    Three major global crises since 2008 have pushed up public and external debt ratios and associated risks across much of Asia and the Pacific. This is confirmed by debt ratio projections and evidence of widening pockets of vulnerability picked up by regional heat maps in this paper. By and large, the outlook is not yet suggestive of a widespread debt crisis looming in the region, and risks continue to be highest for economies that have long been struggling with unsustainably high debt because of structural and other challenges that well precede the recent pandemic and other crises. However, even for economies with a seemingly benign outlook, it is increasingly difficult to envisage just how more widespread fiscal pressure and debt distress could be averted indefinitely. A most challenging global environment is hampering growth while raising the cost of borrowing and need for fiscal spending. The premise for restoring public finances and ensuring their sustainability after the pandemic crisis was for exactly opposite conditions to prevail.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 680 (April 2023)
    Schlagworte: sovereign debt sustainability; public debt; external debt; debt heat map
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The state and your hard-earned money
    a survey on moral perspectives in public finance
    Autor*in: Mauro, Paolo
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This note provides an overview of recent studies that have begun to investigate how differing moral perspectives shape attitudes toward tax and spending policies. Recent advances in evolutionary moral psychology and their application to survey-based... mehr

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    This note provides an overview of recent studies that have begun to investigate how differing moral perspectives shape attitudes toward tax and spending policies. Recent advances in evolutionary moral psychology and their application to survey-based economic analysis yield promising insights. Understanding the moral underpinnings of various groups' views may help policymakers design and make the case for measures that can muster broader support

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 287
    Schlagworte: Moral foundations; moral philosophy; public finance; redistribution; public debt; taxation; political economy; surveys; Moral Foundations, Moral Philosophy and Public Finance; Structure and Scope of Government
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The state and your hard-earned money
    a survey on moral perspectives in public finance
    Autor*in: Mauro, Paolo
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This note provides an overview of recent studies that have begun to investigate how differing moral perspectives shape attitudes toward tax and spending policies. Recent advances in evolutionary moral psychology and their application to survey-based... mehr

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    This note provides an overview of recent studies that have begun to investigate how differing moral perspectives shape attitudes toward tax and spending policies. Recent advances in evolutionary moral psychology and their application to survey-based economic analysis yield promising insights. Understanding the moral underpinnings of various groups' views may help policymakers design and make the case for measures that can muster broader support

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 287
    Schlagworte: Moral foundations; moral philosophy; public finance; redistribution; public debt; taxation; political economy; surveys; Moral Foundations, Moral Philosophy and Public Finance; Structure and Scope of Government
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Indian fiscal federalism at the cross-roads
    some reflections
    Autor*in: Chakraborty, Lekha
    Erschienen: 30-April-2019
    Verlag:  National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / National Institute of Public Finance and Policy ; no. 260
    Schlagworte: Fiscal federalism; Finance Commission; revenue sharing; fiscal equalization; GST; public debt; fiscal rules
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The Covid-19 lesson from Sweden
    don't lockdown
    Autor*in: Andersson, Fredrik N. G.; Jonung, Lars
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Lund

    The coronavirus pandemic triggered strong political action across Europe. Mandatory restrictions to increase social distancing were imposed, commonly known as lockdowns. In some cases, entire countries were virtually locked down for several weeks at... mehr

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    The coronavirus pandemic triggered strong political action across Europe. Mandatory restrictions to increase social distancing were imposed, commonly known as lockdowns. In some cases, entire countries were virtually locked down for several weeks at a time, contributing to a very severe downturn in economic activity. To mitigate the policy induced economic crisis, governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures to support businesses and households. One country, Sweden, served as an outlier. It restricted the spread of the virus primarily through voluntary measures rather than strict lockdowns. In this study, we compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden with those of comparable Western European countries. We answer the question of whether the Swedish policy of using voluntary social-distancing measures led to a better or worse outcome compared to those countries relying on extensive lockdowns. Our results clearly show that the benefits of the lockdown policy on the excess death rate was at best limited, while the economic costs were significant. The Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to act responsibly was relatively successful. Unlike most other Western European countries, Sweden managed to combine one of the lowest excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. Furthermore, Sweden's fiscal position remained remarkably strong during and after the pandemic, in sharp contrast to the fiscal deterioration in those countries that pursued more stringent lockdown policies. While we make no claims of presenting a comprehensive study that covers all possible dimensions of a complex question, the macroeconomic outcome suggests an overreaction, if not panic, among policymakers in many Western European countries. Future policymakers should rely on empirical evidence instead of panicking and adopting extreme measures. The panicked implementation of strict measures during the pandemic did far more harm than good-even if policymakers were appearing to act in a decisive and rapid way for the best interests of society.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Department of Economics, Lund University ; 2023, 10
    Schlagworte: Covid-19 pandemic; lockdowns; excess mortality; economic crisis; fiscal policy; monetary policy; ECB; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. India's debt dilemma
    Autor*in: Eichengreen, Barry; Gupta, Poonam; Ahmed, Ayesha
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  National Council of Applied Economic Research, [New Delhi, India]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / National Council of Applied Economic Research ; no. WP 148
    Schlagworte: debt management; debt sustainability; finance commission; fiscal deficit; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Do fiscal rules matter?
    a survey on recent evidence
    Autor*in: Brändle, Thomas; Elsener, Marc
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  University of Basel, Faculty of Business and Economics, Basel, Switzerland

    Fiscal rules are argued to be important for sound and sustainable fiscal policies and have been increasingly adopted over the last 20 years. However, as increased fiscal pressure and fiscal risks urge countries to address the public debt legacy left... mehr

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    Fiscal rules are argued to be important for sound and sustainable fiscal policies and have been increasingly adopted over the last 20 years. However, as increased fiscal pressure and fiscal risks urge countries to address the public debt legacy left by recent economic crises, fiscal rules come under greater scrutiny. To inform the debate on fiscal frameworks, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of the empirical literature on the impact of fiscal rules. In particular, we discuss the recent empirical literature that investigates the impact of fiscal rules on various elements related to fiscal performance and beyond. Our survey finds that fiscal rules are associated with improved fiscal performance as approximated by improved budget balances, lower debt and lower public spending volatility. Furthermore, empirical research finds that fiscal rules are related to more accurate budget forecasts and improved sovereign bond ratings. From a macroeconomic perspective, well-designed fiscal rules do not principally undermine public investment and do not increase pro-cyclicality in fiscal-policy making. These results, however, also depend on the broader economic and institutional context. Moreover, there is emerging literature that links fiscal rules to broader outcomes, such as income distribution and political polarisation. We discuss methodological challenges related to identification and point to avenues for future research.

     
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    hdl: 10419/278657
    Schriftenreihe: WWZ working paper ; 2023, 07
    Schlagworte: Fiscal rules; independent fiscal institutions; public debt; fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Fiscal policy challenges for Latin America during the next stages of the pandemic
    the need for a fiscal pact
    Autor*in: Cárdenas S., Mauricio; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Roldós, Jorge E.; Werner, Alejandro M.
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a... mehr

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    The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 77
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; fiscal space; public debt; Debt Ratio; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Space; Lac Country; Public Debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes
    a panel analysis of the Euro Area
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we... mehr

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    We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks depends on each country's fiscal stance, specifically, if for output response the debt is more important in the effect of monetary policy, for prices, the "Ricardian" nature of fiscal policy appears to be far more crucial. However, regarding inflation targeting, monetary policy is most effective in the low debt regime and in the high fiscal sustainability one. Our results are robust to different specifications and models and have important policy implications notably for monetary policy, which should consider different fiscal stances when pursuing specific monetary policy objectives.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10627 (2023)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy surprises; public debt; fiscal sustainability; local-projection models; fiscal-monetary policy mix; Euro are
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Energy shocks as Keynesian supply shocks
    implications for fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Kharroubi, Enisse; Smets, Frank
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1120
    Schlagworte: energy shocks; non-homothetic demand; heterogeneous households; fiscal policy; public debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Alberto Alesina (1957-2020)
    man, researcher, Professor of Economics, popularizer
    Autor*in: Vindigni, Andrea
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper offers an overview of Alberto Alesina's life and of his scholarly work (§ 1 and 2). It will be argued, that Alberto would have entirely deserved the award of the Nobel Prize for Economic Science, except only for his premature passing away.... mehr

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    This paper offers an overview of Alberto Alesina's life and of his scholarly work (§ 1 and 2). It will be argued, that Alberto would have entirely deserved the award of the Nobel Prize for Economic Science, except only for his premature passing away. His foundational contribution was the creation, and the development of modern political economy since the mid 1980s (§ 3). This is a highly eclectic discipline at the cross-road of economics and political science. I will briefly attempt to explain what political economy is mainly about, and what political economy is nowadays understood to mean: its basic assumptions, its methodology, its goals, its main relations with modern economics (§ 4). I will then focus on the general introduction (§ 5), and the analytical discussion (§ 5.1) of one of Alberto's most important and impactful contributions: his 1994 work with Dani Rodrik on redistributive politics and economic growth. In my opinion, this is not only one of the many path-breaking and extremely impactful contributions of Alberto, but it best illustrates his scholarly traits and his research agenda. This paper has indeed influenced a large subsequent body of literature; I will mention a few highly celebrated among such contributions (§ 5.2). I will then very briefly discuss a few other relatively early works of Alberto, that have also contributed to the foundation and to the establishment of modern political economy (§ 6). These early works could have been part of a hard core of contributions, potentially more than justifying the assignment of the Nobel Prize in Economics to Alberto Alesina. Finally, I will briefly discuss some of his late work (§ 7), as well as my own personal relation with Alberto (§ 8), a truly unique human being, and master of all the Italian economists (and of many other social scientists). Some acknowledgments (§ 9), and a short but essential bibliography (§ 10) conclude this paper.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16486
    Schlagworte: political economy; government; public debt; inequality; economic growth; redistribution; culture
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten)
  13. Effects of sustainable monetary and fiscal policy on FDI inflows to EMDE countries
    Autor*in: Tiberto, Bruno Pires; Mendonça, Helder Ferreira de
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, DF, Brazil

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Banco Central do Brasil ; 575 (February 2023)
    Schlagworte: foreign direct investment; macroeconomic stability; central bank credibility; public debt; risk for budget balance; inflation targeting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Computing the EU's sure interest savings using an extended debt sustainability assessment tool
    Autor*in: Burriel, Pablo; Kataryniuk, Iván; Pérez, Javier J.
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2216
    Schlagworte: public debt; fiscal sustainability; interest payments; European Union
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Debt limit, fiscal space and fiscal fatigue in the Central and Eastern European countries of EU
    Autor*in: Iancu, Aurel; Olteanu, Dan
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  the Romanian Academy, the National Institute of Economic Research, Bucharest

    This study analyzes the correlation between the primary budget balance and the public debt over the last two decades, for a panel of 12 countries from Central and Eastern Europe, in order to assess their debt sustainability, the level of debt at... mehr

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    This study analyzes the correlation between the primary budget balance and the public debt over the last two decades, for a panel of 12 countries from Central and Eastern Europe, in order to assess their debt sustainability, the level of debt at which fiscal fatigue may occur, as well as the degree of risk of fiscal fatigue, depending on the past and future evolution of public debt. First, using estimates of the cubic fiscal reaction function and two variants (quadratic / linear) of the financing cost function, we determined the equilibrium level of public debt as percentage of GDP, the" fiscal fatigue" point and the debt limit, for the whole panel and for each country. Second, by using the common (from panel regressions) and country-specific coefficients, and public debt projection for 10 and 5 years, we evaluated the level of risk for fiscal fatigue, in relation to the future evolution of public debt and other financial indicators.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / the Romanian Academy, the National Institute of Economic Research ; 230629
    Schlagworte: primary balance; public debt; fiscal space; fiscal policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Anti-fragmentation: an incomplete diagnosis and wrong solution
    Autor*in: Dąbrowski, Marek
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, Poland

    The euro area suffers from excessive public debt, which is the primary cause of the so-called fragmentation. It should be remedied by fiscal consolidation instead of the quasi-fiscal activities of the European Central Bank, which are inconsistent... mehr

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    The euro area suffers from excessive public debt, which is the primary cause of the so-called fragmentation. It should be remedied by fiscal consolidation instead of the quasi-fiscal activities of the European Central Bank, which are inconsistent with its legal status, compromise its independence and undermine its price stability mandate. When targeted market intervention is necessary, it should be provided by the European Stability Mechanism. This paper was provided by the Policy Departmentfor Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 26 September 2022.

     
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    ISBN: 9788367407069
    Schriftenreihe: CASE reports ; no. 506 (2023)
    Schlagworte: European Central Bank; European Union; euro area; fiscal discipline; public debt; Transmission Protection Mechanism; Securities Market Programme; Outright Monetary Transactions; Emergency Liquidity Assistance; fragmentation; central bank independence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Sovereign risk and bank lending
    evidence from 1999 Turkish earthquake
    Autor*in: Başkaya, Yusuf Soner; Hardy, Bryan; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Yue, Vivian Z.
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1093
    Schlagworte: banking crisis; bank balance sheets; lending channel; public debt; credit supply; sovereign-bank nexus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa
    the role of financial regimes
    Autor*in: Kisten, Theshne
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt-growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector... mehr

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    This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt-growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector autoregression model is estimated which allows the transmission mechanism to be characterized by two distinct financial regimes: stressful versus normal. The empirical results suggest that a public debt shock has a broadly insignificant impact on economic growth over the full sample, reflecting the ineffectiveness of government borrowing in stimulating the economy, and could suggest that the high and growing debt service costs faced by the government reduces funds available for investment purposes. Debt shocks are found to be deflationary in both regimes, lending support to the precautionary savings effect and the existence of a well-developed financial market, while interest rates decline with the immediate impact being moderately larger in the stress regime, providing evidence of the accommodative stance between fiscal policy and monetary policy. In response to a public debt shock, financial conditions show an immediate and transitory improvement in the high-stress regime; however, in the low-stress regime there is an immediate yet negligible improvement in financial conditions. Lastly, the responses evolve over time, with fiscal policy being less effective in stimulating the economy in the post-crisis period, but it has been effective in reducing financial stress in the high-stress regime.

     
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    ISBN: 9789292673840
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283772
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 76
    Schlagworte: public debt; financial regimes; South Africa; vector autoregression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Fiscal rules and economic cycles
    quality (always) matters
    Autor*in: Andrián, Leandro; Hirs-Garzón, Jorge; Urrea, Iván; Valencia, Oscar M.
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    Governments can issue public debt for both good and bad reasons. The former include intertemporal tax smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management. In contrast, the bad reasons, which generate higher indebtedness, are mainly associated with... mehr

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    Governments can issue public debt for both good and bad reasons. The former include intertemporal tax smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management. In contrast, the bad reasons, which generate higher indebtedness, are mainly associated with political cycles, rent capture, intergenerational transfers, and common pool problems. Fiscal rules aim to eliminate the problem of time inconsistency of public finances and minimize debt accumulation by setting debt limits. Despite the theoretical relevance of fiscal rules and institutions to the proper management of fiscal processes in different countries, the evidence indicates mixed results regarding the effectiveness of this type of mechanism for fiscal performance. To understand the effect that fiscal rules have on public debt, this paper studies the effect of different types of rules on debt behavior and their differential effects with respect to the economic cycle. Using a dynamic panel, which enables us to control for endogeneity problems, and the use of a fiscal rule quality index (Schaechter et. al., 2012), this paper finds that fiscal rules only have a significant effect on the reduction of public debt during the positive side of the economic cycle if adequate institutional arrangements accompany them. Furthermore, only some types of fiscal rules (expenditure rules) show a significant effect during the negative part of the cycle. These results have relevant policy implications, as they underscore the importance of (1) developing institutional arrangements that promote the proper functioning of fiscal rules and (2) considering economic cycle asymmetries in order to ensure the appropriate operation of fiscal rules and the fulfillment of policy objectives.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-01374
    Schlagworte: Fiscal rules; public debt; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. News and views on public finances
    a survey experiment
    Autor*in: Behringer, Jan; Dräger, Lena; Dullien, Sebastian; Gechert, Sebastian
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  [Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover], [Hannover]

    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the... mehr

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    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter German debt brake. In an information treatment experiment, people consider public debt to be a more (less) severe problem once they learn the actual debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio is higher (lower) than their estimates. However, the treatment effects partly vanish when anchoring respondents' beliefs with historical public debt figures. We find no treatment effects on attitudes towards the debt brake.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: [Hannover economic papers (HEP)] / [Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover] ; [Nummer: 715 (Jan 2024)]
    Schlagworte: public debt; fiscal rules; information treatment; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. News and views on public finances
    a survey experiment
    Autor*in: Behringer, Jan; Dräger, Lena; Dullien, Sebastian; Gechert, Sebastian
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) of Hans-Böckler-Foundation, Düsseldorf, Germany

    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the... mehr

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    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter German debt brake. In an information treatment experiment, people consider public debt to be a more (less) severe problem once they learn the actual debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio is higher (lower) than their estimate. However, the treatment effects partly vanish when anchoring respondents' beliefs with historical public debt figures. We find no treatment effects on attitudes towards the debt brake.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Macroeconomic Policy Institute ; no. 223 (January 2024)
    Schlagworte: public debt; fiscal rules; information treatment; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Do fiscal rules matter?
    a survey on recent evidence
    Autor*in: Brändle, Thomas; Elsener, Marc
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Federal Finance Administration FFA, Economic and Monetary Policy EMP, Berne

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    Schriftenreihe: FFA working paper ; no. 26 (September 2023)
    Schlagworte: Fiscal rules; independent fiscal institutions; public debt; fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability
    Umfang: 62 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  23. News and views on public finances
    a survey experiment
    Autor*in: Behringer, Jan; Dräger, Lena; Dullien, Sebastian; Gechert, Sebastian
    Erschienen: January 2024
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the... mehr

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    We use novel German survey data to investigate how perceptions and information about public finances influence attitudes towards public debt and fiscal rules. On average, people strongly underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio, overestimate the interest-to-tax-revenue ratio and favor a tighter German debt brake. In an information treatment experiment, people consider public debt to be a more (less) severe problem once they learn the actual debt-to-GDP or interest-to-tax-revenue ratio is higher (lower) than their estimates. However, the treatment effects partly vanish when anchoring respondents' beliefs with historical public debt figures. We find no treatment effects on attitudes towards the debt brake.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10891 (2024)
    Schlagworte: public debt; fiscal rules; information treatment; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Resource windfalls and public debt
    the role of political myopia
    Autor*in: Raveh, Ohad; Tsur, Yaʿaḳov
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, OxCarre (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies), Oxford

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: OxCarre research paper ; 205
    Schlagworte: Resource windfalls; public debt; political myopia; reelection
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Political myopia, public debt, and economic growth
    Autor*in: Raveh, Ohad; Tsur, Yaʿaḳov
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, OxCarre (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies), Oxford

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: OxCarre research paper ; 200
    Schlagworte: Reelection prospects; economic growth; public debt; electoral accountability; political myopia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen