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  1. Bias in algorithms
    on the trade-off between accuracy and fairness
    Autor*in: Janssen, Patrick; Sadowski, Bert M.
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  International Telecommunications Society, Online

    Within the discussion on bias in algorithmic selection, fairness interventions are increasingly becoming a popular means to generate more socially responsible outcomes. The paper uses a modified framework based on Rambachan et. al. (2020) to... mehr

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    Within the discussion on bias in algorithmic selection, fairness interventions are increasingly becoming a popular means to generate more socially responsible outcomes. The paper uses a modified framework based on Rambachan et. al. (2020) to empirically investigate the extent to which bias mitigation techniques can provide a more socially responsible outcome and prevent bias in algorithms. In using the algorithmic auditing tool AI Fairness 360 on a synthetically biased dataset, the paper applies different bias mitigation techniques at the preprocessing, inprocessing and postprocessing stage of algorithmic selection to account for fairness. The data analysis has been aimed at detecting violations of group fairness definitions in trained classifiers. In contrast to previous research, the empirical analysis focusses on the outcomes produced by decisions and the incentives problems behind fairness. The paper showed that binary classifiers trained on synthetically generated biased data while treating algorithms with bias mitigation techniques leads to a decrease in both social welfare and predictive accuracy in 43% of the cases tested. The results of our empirical study demonstrated that fairness interventions, which are designed to correct for bias often lead to worse societal outcomes. Based on these results, we propose that algorithmic selection involves a trade-between accuracy of prediction and fairness of outcomes. Furthermore, we suggest that bias mitigation techniques surely have to be included in algorithm selection but they have to be evaluated in the context of welfare economics.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/238032
    Schriftenreihe: Digital societies and industrial transformations : policies, markets, and technologies in a post-Covid world : 23rd biennial conference
    Schlagworte: Algorithmus; Systematischer Fehler; Gerechtigkeit; Wohlfahrtsanalyse
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. How to regulate carbon emissions with climate-conscious consumers
    Autor*in: Herweg, Fabian; Schmidt, Klaus M.
    Erschienen: 31 January 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16985
    Schlagworte: Emissionshandel; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Ökosteuer; Regulierung; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Carbon Pricing; carbon tax; cap-and-trade; climate change; Behavioral IndustrialOrganization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten)
  3. Obfuscation in competitive markets
    Autor*in: Fehr, Ernst; Wu, Keyu
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Zurich

    In many markets, firms make their products complex through add-on features, thus making them difficult to evaluate and compare. Does this product obfuscation lure buyers into buying overpriced products, and if so, why does competition not eliminate... mehr

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    In many markets, firms make their products complex through add-on features, thus making them difficult to evaluate and compare. Does this product obfuscation lure buyers into buying overpriced products, and if so, why does competition not eliminate this practice? More generally, under which conditions can sellers enforce stable obfuscation levels in a competitive environment such that they can increase their profits at the buyers' expense? We show - based on competitive experimental markets - that add-ons that merely complicate the products render obfuscation quite fragile because buyers display an aversion against complex products. However, if add-ons are surplus-enhancing, sellers can mitigate competition via obfuscation which generates substantial profits and persistent dispersion in headline and add-on prices. Sellers anticipate that obfuscation limits the buyers' depth and breadth of search, and they exploit this by hiding unattractive product features. Therefore, even the best product in the market is priced above marginal cost and buyers persistently fail to find the best product in the market such that inferior products have a good chance of being traded. We also identify the causal impact of obfuscation opportunities on profits and price dispersion because if we remove obfuscation opportunities, overall prices quickly converge to marginal cost. Thus, surplus-enhancing obfuscation opportunities cause persistent price dispersion, facilitate stable profits and reduce buyers' share of the surplus.

     
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    hdl: 10419/268862
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / University of Zurich, Department of Economics ; no. 391
    Schlagworte: Produktgestaltung; Produktdifferenzierung; Preismanagement; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der Sanktionen in Bezug auf Russland
    Studie im Auftrag der IHK Düsseldorf
    Autor*in: Flach, Lisandra; Larch, Maria; Yotov, Yoto; Braml, Martin; Gröschl, Jasmin Katrin; Teti, Feodora; Steininger, Marina Gabriele; Schneider, Georg
    Erschienen: Oktober 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    Die Studie befasst sich mit den Auswirkungen der Russland-Sanktionen auf den Außenhandel und die Wertschöpfung Deutschlands, Russlands und der Europäischen Union (EU). Neben einer deskriptiven Analyse werden mithilfe ökonometrischer Methoden die... mehr

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    Die Studie befasst sich mit den Auswirkungen der Russland-Sanktionen auf den Außenhandel und die Wertschöpfung Deutschlands, Russlands und der Europäischen Union (EU). Neben einer deskriptiven Analyse werden mithilfe ökonometrischer Methoden die Effekte der verschiedenen Sanktionsregime (EU, Russland, USA) auf den bilateralen Handel mit Russland geschätzt. Die daraus gewonnenen Erkenntnisse werden in eine Simulationsanalyse gespeist, um die Wohlfahrtskosten nach Ländern, Regionen und Sektoren zu bestimmen. Eine Unternehmensbefragung ergänzt die Studie um qualitative Aspekte, mit denen die Betroffenheit deutscher Unternehmen durch die Sanktionen ergänzt werden kann.

     
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    Sprache: Deutsch
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    ISBN: 9783959421133
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272943
    Schriftenreihe: ifo-Forschungsberichte ; 132 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Sanktion; Russland; Soziale Kosten; Handelseffekt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Gravitationsmodell; Deutschland
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Robust Bounds for Welfare Analysis
    Autor*in: Kang, Zi Yang; Vasserman, Shoshana
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  SSRN, [S.l.]

    Economists routinely make functional form assumptions about consumer demand to obtain welfare estimates—often for convenience, tractability, or both. How sensitive are welfare estimates to these assumptions? In this paper, we answer this question by... mehr

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    Economists routinely make functional form assumptions about consumer demand to obtain welfare estimates—often for convenience, tractability, or both. How sensitive are welfare estimates to these assumptions? In this paper, we answer this question by providing bounds on welfare that hold for families of demand curves commonly considered in different literatures. We show that typical functional forms—such as linear, exponential and CES demand—are extremal in different families: they yield either the highest or lowest welfare estimate among all demand curves in those families. To illustrate the flexibility of our approach, we apply our results to the welfare analysis of trade tariffs, income taxation, and surge pricing

     
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    Schlagworte: Konsumentenverhalten; Nachfragetheorie des Haushalts; Wohlfahrtsökonomik; Wohlfahrtsanalyse
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten)
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    Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments September 19, 2021 erstellt
  6. Welfare Implications of Electric-Bike Subsidies
    Evidence from Sweden
    Autor*in: Anderson, Anders; Hong, Harrison G.
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Electric bikes are a potentially important tool to address global warming since they can be a viable alternative to cars in urban areas. Governments are using subsidies to promote household adoption. Welfare analyses are challenging, requiring... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Electric bikes are a potentially important tool to address global warming since they can be a viable alternative to cars in urban areas. Governments are using subsidies to promote household adoption. Welfare analyses are challenging, requiring pass-through estimates from transactions, incidence of non-additionality (i.e. those who would have bought even without the subsidy), and resulting substitution from driving. We combine administrative, insurance and survey data from a large-scale Swedish subsidy program in 2018, which is similar to other programs around world, to evaluate these implications. We find (1) complete pass through of the average $500 subsidy to consumers, (2) a near doubling of E-bikes sold but one-third of adopters are non-additional; and (3) a savings of 1.3 tons of carbon emissions during the life of the E-bike. Combining these estimates, an E-bike subsidy program can only be justified with a social cost of carbon that is several hundred dollars higher than what is typically used

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29913
    Schlagworte: Fahrrad; Subvention; Substitutionseffekt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse; Schweden
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  7. Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity
    a Review
    Autor*in: Ilut, Cosmin; Schneider, Martin
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We survey literature on ambiguity with an emphasis on recent applications in macroeconomics and finance. Like risk, ambiguity leads to cautious behavior and uncertainty premia in asset markets. Unlike risk, ambiguity can generate first order welfare... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We survey literature on ambiguity with an emphasis on recent applications in macroeconomics and finance. Like risk, ambiguity leads to cautious behavior and uncertainty premia in asset markets. Unlike risk, ambiguity can generate first order welfare losses. As a result, precautionary behavior and ambiguity premia obtain even when agents have linear utility and are reflected in linear approximations to model dynamics. Quantitative work exploits this insight to estimate models that jointly match the dynamics of asset prices and macro aggregates. In micro data, inertia and inaction due to ambiguity help understand patterns such as non-participation in asset markets, price rigidities and simple contracts. Learning under ambiguity generates asymmetric responses to news that help connect higher moments in micro and macro data. Survey evidence is increasingly used to provide direct evidence on ambiguity averse behavior, as well as to discipline quantitative models

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29915
    Schlagworte: Risiko; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Finanzmarkt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  8. An Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Neighborhood-based Interventions on Children
    Autor*in: Chyn, Eric; Daruich, Diego
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    To study the effects of neighborhood and place-based interventions, this paper incorporates neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium (GE) heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child skill... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    To study the effects of neighborhood and place-based interventions, this paper incorporates neighborhood effects into a general equilibrium (GE) heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model with endogenous location choice and child skill development. Importantly, housing costs as well as neighborhood effects are endogenously determined in equilibrium. Having calibrated the model based on U.S. data, we use simulations to show that predictions from the model match reduced form evidence from experimental and quasi-experimental studies of housing mobility and urban development programs. After this validation exercise, we study the long-run and large-scale impacts of vouchers and place-based subsidies. Both policies result in welfare gains by reducing inequality and generating improvements in average skills and productivity, all of which offset higher levels of taxes and other GE effects. We find that a voucher program generates larger long-run welfare gains relative to place-based policies. Our analysis of transition dynamics, however, suggests there may be more political support for place-based policies

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29927
    Schlagworte: Nachbarschaft; Stadtentwicklung; Kommunale Investition; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Gutscheinsystem; Bildungsinvestition; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Kinder; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  9. Representation Failure
    Autor*in: Iaryczower, Matias; Montero, Sergio; Kim, Galileu
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Democratic representation is constrained by the alternatives available to voters. In this paper, we develop a methodology to gauge the extent to which the "supply side" of politics hinders voter welfare. Using rich data on thousands of candidates in... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Democratic representation is constrained by the alternatives available to voters. In this paper, we develop a methodology to gauge the extent to which the "supply side" of politics hinders voter welfare. Using rich data on thousands of candidates in three Brazilian legislative elections, we quantify the relative value voters place on candidates' policy positions and non-ideological attributes, and we evaluate voters' welfare given the set of candidates they face. Our estimates uncover substantial welfare losses to voters relative to three alternative benchmarks of ideal representation. On average, the typical voter suffers only a moderate loss due to policy incongruence but a large loss due to shortages in candidates' non-ideological characteristics. To evaluate the welfare consequences of potential institutional reforms, we develop and estimate a model of equilibrium policy determination. Through counterfactual experiments, we show that institutional reforms aimed at improving the quality of representation may have sizable unintended consequences due to equilibrium policy adjustments

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29965
    Schlagworte: Wahl; Wahlkampf; Parteipolitik; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Brasilien; Ehe; Matching; Vermögensverteilung; Einkommensverteilung; Norwegen
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  10. Generalized Separability and Integrability
    Consumer Demand with a Price Aggregator
    Autor*in: Fally, Thibault
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper examines demand systems where the demand for a good depends on other prices only through a common price aggregator (a scalar function of all prices). We refer to this property as ``generalized separability'' and provide the functional... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper examines demand systems where the demand for a good depends on other prices only through a common price aggregator (a scalar function of all prices). We refer to this property as ``generalized separability'' and provide the functional forms of demand that this property implies when demand is rational, i.e., derived from utility maximization. Generalized separability imposes restrictions on either income or price effects, and greater flexibility is obtained by adding indirect utility as an additional aggregator. We provide examples and applications which encompass a large variety of examples from the literature. In particular, generalized separability can be used in simple general-equilibrium models to obtain a more tractable framework and yet generate a wider range of effects of market size and productivity on firm size, entry, and prices

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w29997
    Schlagworte: Nachfragesystem; Konsumentenverhalten; Nutzenfunktion; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Heteroskedastizität; Analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  11. A Tale of Two Networks
    Common Ownership and Product Market Rivalry
    Autor*in: Ederer, Florian; Pellegrino, Bruno
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study the welfare implications of the rise of common ownership in the United States from 1994 to 2018. We build a general equilibrium model with a hedonic demand system in which firms compete in a network game of oligopoly. Firms are connected... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    We study the welfare implications of the rise of common ownership in the United States from 1994 to 2018. We build a general equilibrium model with a hedonic demand system in which firms compete in a network game of oligopoly. Firms are connected through two large networks: the first reflects ownership overlap, the second product market rivalry. In our model, common ownership of competing firms induces unilateral incentives to soften competition. The magnitude of the common ownership effect depends on how much the two networks overlap. We estimate our model for the universe of U.S. public corporations using a combination of firm financials, investor holdings, and text-based product similarity data. We perform counterfactual calculations to evaluate how the efficiency and the distributional impact of common ownership have evolved over time. According to our baseline estimates the welfare cost of common ownership, measured as the ratio of deadweight loss to total surplus, has increased nearly tenfold (from 0.3% to over 4%) between 1994 and 2018. Under alternative assumptions about governance, the deadweight loss ranges between 1.9% and 4.4% of total surplus in 2018. The rise of common ownership has also resulted in a significant reallocation of surplus from consumers to producers

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30004
    Schlagworte: Wettbewerbsstrategie; Oligopol; Netzwerkökonomik; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; USA; Common Ownership
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  12. On Criteria for Evaluating Social Programs
    Autor*in: García, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J.
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper examines the economic foundations of some recently proposed criteria for evaluating the benefits of social programs. These criteria are appropriate for comparing a class of revenue-constant policies. They replace foundational principles of... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    This paper examines the economic foundations of some recently proposed criteria for evaluating the benefits of social programs. These criteria are appropriate for comparing a class of revenue-constant policies. They replace foundational principles of social opportunity costs with accounting conventions from the point of view of government bureaucrats. They do not address the question of social optimality associated with programs that expand or contract the government budget

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30005
    Schlagworte: Sozialpolitik; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Bewertung; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse
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  13. Unshrouding product-specific attributes through financial education
    Autor*in: Balakina, Olga; Balasubramaniam, Vimal; Dimri, Aditi; Sane, Renuka
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

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    Schriftenreihe: NIPFP working paper series ; no. 344 (24-August-2021)
    Schlagworte: Finanzwissen; Konsumentenverhalten; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Schätzung; Indien
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Urban Renewal and Inequality
    Evidence from Chicago's Public Housing Demolitions
    Autor*in: Almagro, Milena; Chyn, Eric; Stuart, Bryan A.
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This paper studies one of the largest spatially targeted redevelopment efforts implemented in the United States: public housing demolitions sponsored by the HOPE VI program. Focusing on Chicago, we study welfare and racial disparities in the impacts... mehr

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    This paper studies one of the largest spatially targeted redevelopment efforts implemented in the United States: public housing demolitions sponsored by the HOPE VI program. Focusing on Chicago, we study welfare and racial disparities in the impacts of demolitions using a structural model that features a rich set of equilibrium responses. Our results indicate that demolitions had notably heterogeneous effects where welfare decreased for low-income minority households and increased for White households. Counterfactual simulations explore how housing policy mitigates negative effects of demolitions and suggest that increased public housing site redevelopment is the most effective policy for reducing racial inequality

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30838
    Schlagworte: Soziale Wohnungspolitik; Stadterneuerung; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Ethnische Diskriminierung; Einkommensverteilung; Städtische Armut; Chicago (Ill.); USA; General Welfare, Well-Being; Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics; Government Policy
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  15. Labor Supply Shocks and Capital Accumulation
    The Short and Long Run Effects of the Refugee Crisis in Europe
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Lorenzo; Opromolla, Luca David; Parro, Fernando; Sforza, Alessandro
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and... mehr

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    European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30879
    Schlagworte: Arbeitsangebot; Flüchtlinge; Ukrainer; Investition; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Verteilungswirkung; Europa; Trade; Trade and Labor Market Interactions
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  16. The Cost of Curbing Externalities with Market Power
    Alcohol Regulations and Tax Alternatives
    Autor*in: Conlon, Christopher; Rao, Nirupama L.
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Products with negative externalities are often subject to regulations that limit competition. The single-product case may suggest that it is irrelevant for aggregate welfare whether output is restricted via corrective taxes or limiting competition.... mehr

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    Products with negative externalities are often subject to regulations that limit competition. The single-product case may suggest that it is irrelevant for aggregate welfare whether output is restricted via corrective taxes or limiting competition. However, when products are differentiated curbing consumption through market power can be costly. Firms with market power may not only reduce total quantity, but distort the purchase decisions of inframarginal consumers. We examine a common regulation known as post-and-hold (PH) used by a dozen states for the sale of alcoholic beverages. Theoretically, PH eliminates competitive incentives among wholesalers selling identical products. We assemble unique data on distilled spirits from Connecticut, including matched manufacturer and wholesaler prices, to evaluate the welfare consequences of PH. For similar levels of ethanol consumption, PH leads to substantially lower consumer welfare (and government revenue) compared to excise, sales or Ramsey taxes by distorting consumption choices away from high-quality/premium brands and towards low-quality brands. Replacing PH with volumetric or ethanol-based taxes could reduce consumption by over 9% without reducing consumer surplus, and increase tax revenues by over 300%

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30896
    Schlagworte: Alkoholisches Getränk; Alkoholsteuer; Optimale Besteuerung; Steuerwirkung; Marktmacht; Externer Effekt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Connecticut; USA; Welfare Economics; Efficiency; Optimal Taxation; Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets; Regulation and Industrial Policy; Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco; Wine and Spirits
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  17. Labor supply shocks and capital accumulation
    the short and long run effects of the refugee crisis in Europe
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Lorenzo; Opromolla, Luca David; Parro, Fernando; Sforza, Alessandro
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and... mehr

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    European countries experienced a large increase in labor supply due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees after the 2022 Russia invasion. We study its dynamic effects in a spatial model with forward-looking households of different skills, trade, and endogenous capital accumulation. We find that real GDP increases in Europe in the long term, with large distributional effects across countries and skill groups. In the short run, an increase in the supply of labor strains the use of capital structures that takes time to build. Over time, countries that build capital structures increase output, resulting in potential long run benefits.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10236 (2023)
    Schlagworte: Arbeitsangebot; Flüchtlinge; Ukrainer; Investition; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Verteilungswirkung; Europa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Labor supply shocks and capital accumulation
    the short and long run effects of the refugee crisis in europe
    Autor*in: Caliendo, Lorenzo; Opromolla, Luca David; Parro, Fernando; Sforza, Alessandro
    Erschienen: 30 January 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17854
    Schlagworte: Arbeitsangebot; Flüchtlinge; Ukrainer; Investition; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Verteilungswirkung; Europa
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten)
  19. Misallocation in Firm Production
    A Nonparametric Analysis Using Procurement Lotteries
    Autor*in: Carrillo, Paul E.; Donaldson, Dave; Pomeranz, Dina; Singhal, Monica
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    How costly is the misallocation of production that we might expect to result from distortions such as market power, incomplete contracts, taxes, regulations, or corruption? This paper develops new tools for the study of misallocation that place... mehr

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    How costly is the misallocation of production that we might expect to result from distortions such as market power, incomplete contracts, taxes, regulations, or corruption? This paper develops new tools for the study of misallocation that place minimal assumptions on firms' underlying technologies and behavior. We show how features of the distribution of marginal products can be identified from exogenous variation in firms' input use, and how these features can be used both to test for misallocation and to quantify the welfare losses that it causes. We then consider an application in which thousands of firms experience demand shocks derived from a lottery-based assignment of public procurement contracts for construction services in Ecuador. Using administrative tax data about these firms, we reject the null of efficiency but estimate that the welfare losses resulting from misallocation are only 1.6% relative to the first-best. Standard parametric assumptions applied to the same setting would suggest losses that are at least an order of magnitude larger

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31311
    Schlagworte: Allokation; Allokationseffizienz; Marktmacht; Öffentlicher Auftrag; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Ecuador; Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity; Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Procurement; General; General
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  20. Optimal Paternalism in a Population with Bounded Rationality
    Autor*in: Manski, Charles F.; Sheshinski, Eytan
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A central mission of public economics has been to determine policies that optimize utilitarian welfare. To improve the realism of policy evaluation, it is desirable to enrich understanding of behavior and develop methods of analysis that use the... mehr

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    A central mission of public economics has been to determine policies that optimize utilitarian welfare. To improve the realism of policy evaluation, it is desirable to enrich understanding of behavior and develop methods of analysis that use the enriched understanding to assess policies. Attention has been given to recognition that behavior may be boundedly rational, but little has been done to draw the implications of this work for mechanism design. Behavioral economists have suggested that planners should limit the choices available to individuals or should frame the options in a manner thought to influence choice, but the discussion has commonly been verbal and casual. We formally consider a planner who has the power to design a discrete choice set from which individuals will choose. We suppose that individuals may be boundedly rational and, hence, may not maximize utility. Our concern is realistic settings in which persons have heterogeneous preferences and may vary in how their choices deviate from utility maximization. We find that optimal paternalism is subtle. The policy that most effectively constrains or influences individual choices depends on the distribution of preferences and the choice probabilities measuring the extent to which persons behave suboptimally, conditional on their preferences

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31349
    Schlagworte: Begrenzte Rationalität; Verhalten; Nutzenmaximierung; Finanzwissenschaft; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Mechanismus-Design-Theorie; General
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  21. A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution
    Autor*in: Boning, William C.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben; Stuart, Ellen
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield... mehr

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    We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We draw upon comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs to quantify the average costs and revenues associated with each audit. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of US taxpayers filing in 2010-2014. On average, $1 in audit spending raises $2.17 in initial revenue. Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs. Audits of the 99-99.9th percentile have a 3.2:1 return; audits of the top 0.1% return 6.3:1. We then exploit the 40% audit reduction between tax years 2010 and 2014 to examine the returns to marginal audits. We find they exceed the returns to average audits. Revenues remain relatively unchanged but marginal costs fall below average costs due to economies of scale. Next, we use randomly selected audits to examine the impact of an initial audit on future revenue. This specific deterrence effect produces at least three times more revenue than the initial audit. Deterrence effects are relatively consistent across the income distribution. This results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile. We conclude by estimating the welfare consequences of audits using the MVPF framework and comparing audits to other revenue raising policies. We find that audits raise revenue at lower welfare cost

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31376
    Schlagworte: Steuerfahndung; Steuerstrafrecht; Besteuerungsverfahren; Einkommensverteilung; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; USA; General
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  22. Trade Integration, Industry Reallocation, and Welfare in Colombia
    Autor*in: Alessandria, George A.; Avila-Montealegre, Oscar I.
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We study empirically and theoretically the dynamic effects of the unilateral reduction in import tariffs undertaken by Colombia from 1989-1993, with a particular emphasis on the transition and including any anticipation effects. We develop an... mehr

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    We study empirically and theoretically the dynamic effects of the unilateral reduction in import tariffs undertaken by Colombia from 1989-1993, with a particular emphasis on the transition and including any anticipation effects. We develop an asymmetric two-country, multi-sector heterogeneous firm model with a dynamic exporting decision, input-output linkages, capital accumulation, and trade in financial assets. The model is calibrated to match Colombian exporter dynamics, sectoral trade openness, tariffs, imbalances, and input-output linkages in the late 1980s. We introduce an anticipated phased out reform into the model and relate the predicted path of sectoral and aggregate activity to the data. Our multi-sector dynamic exporting model predicts much larger gains from these reforms than models that abstract from exporter dynamics, sectoral heterogeneity, trade in financial assets, or capital accumulation. It also captures the key macroeconomic features in terms of a temporary expansion in growth featuring a large, but short-lived investment boom financed by international borrowing, more so when the reforms are expected to be short-lived

     
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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31378
    Schlagworte: Zollpolitik; Zoll; Handelsliberalisierung; Wirkungsanalyse; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Außenhandelsgewinn; Kolumbien; Economic Integration; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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  23. Are Inflationary Shocks Regressive?$bA Feasible Set Approach
    Autor*in: Del Canto, Felipe N.; Grigsby, John R.; Qian, Eric; Walsh, Conor
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of inflationary shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents' feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing... mehr

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    We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of inflationary shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents' feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing constraints. To measure this impact, we combine estimated impulse response functions with micro-data on household consumption bundles, asset holdings and labor income for different US households. We find that inflationary oil shocks are regressive, but monetary expansions are progressive, and there is substantial heterogeneity throughout the life cycle. In both cases, the dominant channel is the effect of the shock on asset prices, not movements in goods prices or labor income

     
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31124
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Schock; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Schätztheorie; USA; Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; General; General
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  24. Empirical Analyses of Selection and Welfare in Insurance Markets
    A Self-Indulgent Survey
    Autor*in: Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    This review article, which was solicited by the Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, surveys work that has been done using an empirical framework for analyzing selection in insurance markets developed by Einav, Finkelstein, and Cullen (2010). We briefly... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    This review article, which was solicited by the Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, surveys work that has been done using an empirical framework for analyzing selection in insurance markets developed by Einav, Finkelstein, and Cullen (2010). We briefly review that framework, and then describe a number of empirical applications that researchers have undertaken across an array of settings in both insurance and credit markets. We also discuss some of the useful extensions to the original framework that others have made and applied. The review is intended to be useful for scholars who may want to apply the framework in their own work on insurance, credit, or other selection markets

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31146
    Schlagworte: Adverse Selektion; Versicherungsmarkt; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Datenmodell; General; Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  25. Mild Government Failure
    Autor*in: Wei, Shang-jin; Xu, Jianhuan; Yin, Ge; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Erschienen: April 2023
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    A relatively mild form of government failure - for example, bureaucrats can count but do not differentiate quality - can significantly affect the efficacy of industrial policy. We investigate this idea in the context of China's largest pro-innovation... mehr

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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    A relatively mild form of government failure - for example, bureaucrats can count but do not differentiate quality - can significantly affect the efficacy of industrial policy. We investigate this idea in the context of China's largest pro-innovation industrial policy using a structural model. We find that the return to the subsidy program is -19.7\% (but would be 7.8\% if the mild government failure can be removed). Furthermore, the welfare loss is exacerbated by patent trade

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w31178
    Schlagworte: Industriepolitik; Technologiepolitik; Staatsversagen; Bürokratie; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; China; Efficiency; Optimal Taxation; Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology; Industrial Policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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