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  1. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/233801
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 56 (2021, January)
    Schlagworte: US Presidential Elections; Politicians; Economic Expectations; EconomicExperts; Randomized Controlled Trial; Causal Inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates
    Autor*in: Boer, Jantke de; Eichler, Stefan; Rövekamp, Ingmar
    Erschienen: November 2022
    Verlag:  Faculty of Business and Economics, Technische Universität Dresden, [Dresden]

    We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 550
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266451
    RVK Klassifikation: QC 000
    Schriftenreihe: CEPIE working paper ; no. 22, 03
    Schlagworte: Exchange Rates; US Presidential Elections; TV Debates; Protectionism; Bilateral Trade Integration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen