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  1. The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions
    Autor*in: Finck, David; Tillmann, Peter
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines business cycle variables... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 464
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines business cycle variables with data from international container trade. Using a novel identification scheme, we augment conventional sign restrictions on the impulse responses by narrative information about three episodes: the Tohoku ¯ earthquake in 2011, the Suez Canal obstruction in 2021, and the Shanghai backlog in 2022. We show that a global supply chain shock causes a drop in euro area real economic activity and a strong increase in consumer prices. Over a horizon of one year, the global supply chain shock explains about 30% of inflation dynamics. We also use regional data on supply chain pressure to isolate shocks originating in China. Our results show that supply chain disruptions originating in China are an important driver for unexpected movements in industrial production, while disruptions originating outside China are an especially important driver for the dynamics of consumer prices.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268227
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 178 (2023)
    Schlagworte: Container Trade; Supply Chain; Inflation; Narrative Identification; Sign Restrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions
    Autor*in: Finck, David; Tillmann, Peter
    Erschienen: 29 December 2022
    Verlag:  BOFIT, the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, Helsinki

    Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 686
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade. Using a novel identification scheme, we augment conventional sign restrictions on the impulse responses by narrative information about three episodes: the Tohoku earthquake ¯ in 2011, the Suez Canal obstruction in 2021, and the Shanghai backlog in 2022. We show that a global supply chain shock causes a drop in euro area real economic activity and a strong increase in consumer prices. Over a horizon of one year, the global supply chain shock explains about 30% of inflation dynamics. We also use regional data on supply chain pressure to isolate shocks originating in China. Our results show that supply chain disruptions originating in China are an important driver for unexpected movements in industrial production, while disruptions originating outside China are an especially important driver for the dynamics of consumer prices.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523234291
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267906
    Schriftenreihe: BOFIT discussion papers ; 2022, 14
    Schlagworte: Container Trade; Supply Chain; Inflation; Narrative Identification; Sign Restrictions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen