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  1. Uniform inference after pretesting for exogeneity
    Autor*in: Doko Tchatoka, Firmin; Wang, Wenjie
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  [School of Economics, University of Adelaide], [Adelaide]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / The University of Adelaide, School of Economics ; no. 2020, 5 (March 2020)
    Schlagworte: DWH Pretest; Instrumental Variable; Asymptotic Size; Bootstrap; Bonferroni-based Size-correction; Uniform Inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Retirement, housing mobility, downsizing and neighbourhood quality
    a causal investigation
    Autor*in: Ha Trong Nguyen; Mitrou, Francis; Zubrick, Stephen R.
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    This paper provides the first causal evidence on the impact of retirement on housing choices. Our empirical strategy exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension as an instrument for the endogenous retirement decision and... mehr

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    This paper provides the first causal evidence on the impact of retirement on housing choices. Our empirical strategy exploits the discontinuity in the eligibility ages for state pension as an instrument for the endogenous retirement decision and controls for time-invariant individual characteristics. The results show that retirement leads to a statistically significant and sizable increase in the probability of making a residential move or the likelihood of becoming outright homeowners. We also find that individuals downsize both physically and financially and tend to move to better neighbourhoods or closer to the coast upon retirement. We additionally discover that some housing adjustments take place up to 6 years before retirement. Moreover, our results reveal significant heterogeneity in the retirement impact by gender, marital status, education, housing tenue, income and wealth. Within couple households, housing mobility choices are primarily influenced by the wife’s retirement while housing downsizing decisions are only affected by the husband’s retirement. The results suggest that failing to address the endogeneity of retirement often under-states the retirement impact on such housing arrangements.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235524
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 882
    Schlagworte: Retirement; Housing; Migration; Residential Mobility; Quality of Neighbourhood; Downsizing; Instrumental Variable
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. An attempt at evaluating the effect of tax morale on tax evasion
    Autor*in: Kisters, Tom
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, [Vienna]

    Although there is ample research on what affects tax morale, empirical evidence that tax morale affects tax evasion is scarce. The reason for this scarcity, is the difficulty to connect a measure of tax morale to a reliable proxy of tax evasion. The... mehr

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    Although there is ample research on what affects tax morale, empirical evidence that tax morale affects tax evasion is scarce. The reason for this scarcity, is the difficulty to connect a measure of tax morale to a reliable proxy of tax evasion. The primary contribution, is that I identify an opportunity to make such a connection, and use this opportunity to estimate a causal effect of tax morale on tax evasion. Using 7367 U.S. observations from the World Value Surveys (WVS), I first show that there is a strong relation between demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity on the one hand and tax morale on the other. Having established this link, I take advantage of detailed demographic information in US census data, to create post-stratified samples at the county level, which I use to predict county-level estimates of tax morale. This data is then linked to income tax return data, provided by the IRS, creating a panel data, consisting of 2984 counties, spread over 4 years (1999, 2006, 2011 and 2017). With this data I provide empirical evidence of the effects of tax morale on tax evasion. The key issue to address is the potential endogeneity concern connected to the county values of tax morale. I firstly address this issue with an instrumental variable approach. The second approach attempts to remove spurious covariation by making use of demographic fluctuations within counties. The results suggest that a percentage increase in tax morale at the county level might increase income reporting for non-wage earners by 5 to 7%. A third approach mimics the approach by Cullen et al. (2021), but is unable to reproduce the results

     
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    Schriftenreihe: WU international taxation research paper series ; no. 2022, 02
    Schlagworte: Tax Morale; Tax evasion; Instrumental Variable; Post-Stratification
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The spillover effects of crime on firm tax evasion Providing an empirical argument for negative reciprocal behaviour against the state
    Autor*in: Kisters, Tom
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, [Vienna]

    This paper uses firm-level survey data to explore whether the extent to which firms perceive taxes and crime as impediments to their operations and growth (perceived constraints) affects firm tax evasion. To rule out spurious covariation, I use... mehr

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    This paper uses firm-level survey data to explore whether the extent to which firms perceive taxes and crime as impediments to their operations and growth (perceived constraints) affects firm tax evasion. To rule out spurious covariation, I use reported crime incidences as an instrumental variable. I establish a negative effect of perceived constraints on sales reported for tax purposes. The effect is large and amounts to a drop in reported sales of 3.4-13.6% in the preferred specification. I hypothesise that this result is best explained by negative reciprocal behaviour against the state. The result is robust when adding a second instrument (Power Outages) and different controls

     
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    Schriftenreihe: WU international taxation research paper series ; no. 2022, 03
    Schlagworte: Reciprocity; Crime; Crime Perception; Tax evasion; Instrumental Variable
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Democracy and terrorism in Africa
    Autor*in: Iheonu, Chimere Okechukwu; Asongu, Simplice; Agbutun, Shedrach A.; Ifelunini, Innocent A.
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study investigates: (i) the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth dynamics, and (ii) the relevance of value added from three economic sectors in modulating the established effect of FDI... mehr

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    This study investigates: (i) the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth dynamics, and (ii) the relevance of value added from three economic sectors in modulating the established effect of FDI on TFP and economic growth dynamics. The geographical and temporal scopes are respectively 25 Sub-Saharan African countries and the period 1980–2014. The empirical evidence is based on non-interactive and interactive Generalised Method of Moments. The following main findings are established. First, FDI has a positive effect on GDP growth, GDP per capita and welfare real TFP. Second, the effect of FDI is negative on real GDP and TFP, while the impact is insignificant on real TFP growth and welfare TFP. Third, values added to the three economic sectors largely modulate FDI to produce negative net effects on TFP and growth dynamics. Policy implications are discussed with particular emphasis on the need to complement added value across various economic sectors in order to leverage on the benefits of FDI in TFP and economic growth. To the best of knowledge, this is the first study to assess how value added from various economic sectors affect the relevance of FDI on macroeconomic outcomes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250113
    Schriftenreihe: AGDI working paper ; WP/21, 089
    Schlagworte: Democracy; Terrorism; Africa; Instrumental Variable; Fixed Effects Model
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Women, violence and work
    threat of sexual violence and women's decision to work
    Autor*in: Chakraborty, Tanika; Lohawala, Nafisa
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    The stagnancy of women's workforce participation in urban India is alarming and puzzling, considering the pace of economic development experienced in the previous decade. We investigate the extent to which the low workforce participation of women can... mehr

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    The stagnancy of women's workforce participation in urban India is alarming and puzzling, considering the pace of economic development experienced in the previous decade. We investigate the extent to which the low workforce participation of women can be explained by growing instances of officially reported crimes against women. We employ a fixed-effects strategy using district-level panel data between 2004-2012. To address additional concerns of endogeneity, we exploit state-level regulations in alcohol sale and consumption and provide estimates from two different strategies - an instrumental variable approach and a border analysis. Our findings indicate that an additional sexual crime per 1000 women in a district reduces the probability that a woman is employed outside her home by roughly 1%. While we find some evidence of heterogeneity across regions and religions, overall, the deterrent effect seems to affect women equally across all economic, demographic, and social groups.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248862
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 1023
    Schlagworte: Crime-against-women; Female Labor Supply; Instrumental Variable; Alcohol Regulation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Job satisfaction and trade union membership in Germany
    Autor*in: Goerke, Laszlo; Huang, Yue
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    Using panel data from 1985 to 2019, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of the relationship between trade union membership and job satisfaction in Germany. Cross-sectional analyses reveal a negative correlation, while fixed effects... mehr

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    Using panel data from 1985 to 2019, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of the relationship between trade union membership and job satisfaction in Germany. Cross-sectional analyses reveal a negative correlation, while fixed effects estimates indicate an insignificant relationship. This is also true if we incorporate information on collective bargaining coverage or the existence of works councils in subsamples for which this data is available. To address the endogeneity of union membership, we generate information on the union density individuals faced in their industry and region. This time-variant IV suggests no causal impact of individual union membership on job satisfaction. Finally, using different estimation models, we investigate whether the effects vary by gender, age, birth year, and employment status.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261792
    Schriftenreihe: GLO discussion paper ; no. 1135
    Schlagworte: Exit-Voice Framework; German Socio-Economic Panel; Instrumental Variable; Job Satisfaction; Sorting; Trade Union Membership
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Can white elephants kill?
    unintended consequences of infrastructure development
    Autor*in: Bancalari, Antonella
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute for Fiscal Studies, [London]

    I provide evidence of the severe social costs imposed by infrastructure projects that are being implemented (i.e., projects started but not yet completed) in the context of sewerage in Peru. Using a counterfactual implementation predicted from... mehr

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    I provide evidence of the severe social costs imposed by infrastructure projects that are being implemented (i.e., projects started but not yet completed) in the context of sewerage in Peru. Using a counterfactual implementation predicted from geography-based cost considerations as an instrument, I show that implemented projects increase infant and under-five mortality. These results are driven by hazards, poor hygienic conditions and unsafe behavior, which increase deaths by waterborne diseases and accidents. Delays and mid-construction halting are common, and exacerbate the lethal effects of projects. Failing to take the implementation phase into account could severely bias the welfare evaluation of infrastructure.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267958
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / lnstitute for Fiscal Studies ; 22, 27
    Schlagworte: Infrastructure; Implementation; Public Expenditure; Mortality; Instrumental Variable
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Democracy and lifelong learning in Africa
    Autor*in: Iheonu, Chimere Okechukwu; Asongu, Simplice
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    Education has been cited in both theoretical and empirical literature as a key driver of socioeconomic growth. African educational outcomes, however, continue to be subpar at all levels. This study examines the impact of democracy on lifelong... mehr

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    Education has been cited in both theoretical and empirical literature as a key driver of socioeconomic growth. African educational outcomes, however, continue to be subpar at all levels. This study examines the impact of democracy on lifelong learning in 52 African countries from 1990 to 2020, employing Fixed Effects regressions. Six democracy indicators, which include electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, egalitarian, and total democracy, derived from the principal component analysis (PCA), are employed in the study. The study also utilizes four education variables to capture lifelong learning in Africa and includes primary, secondary, and tertiary school enrolment, as well as a lifelong learning index derived from the PCA. The findings reveal that improving the quality of democracy in Africa can significantly enhance primary school enrolment. The study also finds that improving electoral, participatory, and egalitarian democracy significantly improves secondary school enrolment in the presence of endogeneity. Additionally, improving egalitarian democracy significantly spurs tertiary education. These findings show the importance of political institutions in enhancing educational attainment and lifelong learning in Africa.

     
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    hdl: 10419/269086
    Schriftenreihe: AGDI working paper ; WP/22, 067
    Schlagworte: Democracy; Lifelong Learning; Africa; Fixed Effects Model; Instrumental Variable
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Algorithm is experiment
    machine learning, market design, and policy eligibility rules
    Autor*in: Narita, Yusuke; Yata, Kohei
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Schriftenreihe: RIETI discussion paper series ; 21-E, 057 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Algorithm; Causal Inference; Regression Discontinuity Design; Propensity Score; Instrumental Variable; Artificial Intelligence; Fiscal Stimulus; Health Care
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 99 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Marginal effects for probit and tobit with endogeneity
    Autor*in: Evdokimov, Kirill S.; Kalnina, Ilze; Zeleneev, Andrei
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study... mehr

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    When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study this issue focusing on the Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit and Tobit models. We show that even when a valid IV is available, failing to differentiate between the two types of endogeneity can lead to either under- or over-estimation of the partial effects. We develop simple estimators of the bounds on the partial effects and provide easy to implement confidence intervals that correctly account for both types of endogeneity. We illustrate the methods in a Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical application.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284135
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: June 22, 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Cemmap working paper ; CWP23, 11
    Schlagworte: (Average) Partial Effects; Instrumental Variable; Control Variable; Errors-in-Variables; Counterfactuals
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The effect of mass migration on economic development
    Autor*in: Turkum, Betul; Benitez Rubiano, Mariana
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [Aix-Marseille School of Economics], [Aix-en-Provence

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / AMSE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics ; WP 2023, nr 32
    Schlagworte: Refugees; Economic Development; Regional Variation; Difference-in Differences; Instrumental Variable; GDP per capita
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Marginal effects for probit and tobit with endogeneity
    Autor*in: Evdokimov, Kirill S.; Kalnina, Ilze; Zeleneev, Andrei
    Erschienen: [2024]
    Verlag:  Cemmap, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, Department of Economics, UCL, [London]

    When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study... mehr

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    When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study this issue focusing on the Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit and Tobit models. We show that even when a valid IV is available, failing to differentiate between the two types of endogeneity can lead to either under- or over-estimation of the partial effects. We develop simple estimators of the bounds on the partial effects and provide easy to implement confidence intervals that correctly account for both types of endogeneity. We illustrate the methods in a Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical application.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: February 6, 2024
    Schriftenreihe: Cemmap working paper ; CWP24, 04
    Schlagworte: (Average) Partial Effects; Instrumental Variable; Control Variable; Errors-inVariables; Counterfactuals
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen