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  1. Demand or supply?
    an empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The macroeconomic effects of climate-related events and climate policies depend on the interaction between demand- and supply-type of shocks that those events and policies imply. Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a... mehr

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    The macroeconomic effects of climate-related events and climate policies depend on the interaction between demand- and supply-type of shocks that those events and policies imply. Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined effect of (1) climate change, (2) environmental policies and (3) environment-related technologies on the macroeconomy. Results show that climate change and policies to counteract them have a significant, albeit not sizeable, macroeconomic effects over the business cycle. We find evidence that physical risks work as negative demand shocks while transition policies or technology improvements resemble downward supply movements. Furthermore, the disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. Overall our results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289948616
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/246185
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2608 (October 2021)
    Schlagworte: Environmental policy; Environment-related technologies; Physical risks; Business cycle; SVAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The unemployed with jobs and without jobs
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2021, 17 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession; Layoffs; Recall
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The inexorable recoveries of US unemployment
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2021, 20 (August 2021)
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Growing apart or moving together?
    synchronization of informal and formal economy cycles
    Erschienen: 31 August 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16498
    Schlagworte: Informal economy; Self-employment; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment
    Autor*in: Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2103
    Schlagworte: Mortgage borrowing; Consumption; Residential investment; House price; Mortgage rate; Credit supply; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Firm expectations and economic activity
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on... mehr

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    We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 percent of aggregate fluctuations.

     

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    ISBN: 9789289949088
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    hdl: 10419/249894
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2621 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: Survey data; Propensity score matching; Business cycle; News; Noise
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Equity premium predictability over the business cycle
    Erschienen: 13 July 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16357
    Schlagworte: Recession predictability; return predictability; Business cycle; Probit Model; termspread
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. On the determinants of life and non-life-insurance premiums
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Czech National Bank, Economic Research Department, Praha

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Czech National Bank ; 2020, 8
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; insurance; life insurance; macro-financial determinants,non-life insurance
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1005
    Schlagworte: Unemployment; Informality; NAIRU; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Demand or supply?
    an empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, London

    Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant... mehr

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    Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.

     

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    hdl: 10419/260503
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: December 7, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London ; no. 933 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: Environmental policy; Environment-related technologies; Physicalrisks; Business cycle; SVAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market
    Erschienen: 20 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16824
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; Firm-Level Shocks; granularity; propagation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Equilibrium job turnover and the business cycle
    Erschienen: 18 November 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16733
    Schlagworte: job search; Firm Dynamics; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The effects of fiscal policy shocks in Bangladesh
    an agnostic identification procedure
    Erschienen: August 2020
    Verlag:  National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan

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    Schriftenreihe: GRIPS discussion paper ; 20, 08
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Business cycle; Bayesian VAR; Sign restrictions; Bangladesh; Fiscal shocks; Tax policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The size-centrality relationship in production networks
    Erschienen: [2022 ]
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 994 (August 2022)
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; aggregate productivity; productivity puzzle; input-outputlinkages; production network
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa Seiten)
  15. A diffusion index analysis of the Argentinean business economic cycle during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  ie, BCRA, Investigaciones Económicas, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

    The Central Banks use diffusion indexes (DIs) to synthesize information from proprietary surveys that complement official statistics generating real time proxies of the economically relevant variables. According to the evidence, the DIs closely... mehr

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    The Central Banks use diffusion indexes (DIs) to synthesize information from proprietary surveys that complement official statistics generating real time proxies of the economically relevant variables. According to the evidence, the DIs closely follow the economic cycle reflected in those official statistics. In this paper, the Survey of Business Economic Perspectives collected by the Central Bank of Argentina, is used to calculate two diffusion indexes: (i) the marginal diffusion index (MDI) based on the balance of answers and demeaned by the averaged participant response aiming at correcting for the "respondent bias" and; a (ii) marginal fixed diffusion index (MFDI) that corrects the ex-post changes on past MDI index generated by changes in the average participant response. Both indexes are analyzed for the 2017-2022 period, a particularly volatile business cycle for Argentina and (given the impact of Covid-19) for the global economy. An econometric procedure aimed at assessing the indexes relationships with the official economic activity indicators is introduced. The analysis indicates that the DIs calculated with the BCRA's Survey information closely follow and even anticipate the behavior of other official activity indicators both for the entire sample of firms and the industrial sector.

     

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    Schriftenreihe: Economic research working papers / ie, BCRA, Investigaciones Económicas ; n 105 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Diffusion Index; Business cycle; Economic Activity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

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    Schriftenreihe: Cowles Foundation discussion paper ; no. 2348 (September 2022)
    Schlagworte: Boosting; Business cycle; Machine learning; Macroeconomics; Recession
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  University of Nottingham, GEP, [Nottingham]

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; research paper 2023, 03
    Schlagworte: Foreign Acquisition; Recession; Innovation; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Firm expectations and news
    micro v macro
    Erschienen: 26 December 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17768
    Schlagworte: Firm expectations; Survey; overreaction; underreaction; micro news; macro news; island illusion; Business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Corporate debt and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy
    Autor*in: Shirai, Daichi
    Erschienen: 2021.10
    Verlag:  The Canon Institute for Global Studies, [Tokyo]

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    Schriftenreihe: CIGS working paper series ; no. 21, 007, E
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; Corporate tax; Business cycle; State-dependent fiscal policy; Corporate debt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40... mehr

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    This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781616354893
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 289
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; emerging markets; firm-level shocks; granularity; propagation; Business Cycle, Emerging Markets and Firm-Level Shocks; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Open Economy Macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. An American macroeconomic picture. supply and demand shocks in the frequency domain
    Erschienen: 11 April 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18070
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; Frequency domain; Structural dynamic factor models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40... mehr

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    This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781616354893
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 289
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; emerging markets; firm-level shocks; granularity; propagation; Business Cycle, Emerging Markets and Firm-Level Shocks; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Open Economy Macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Uncertainty and labor market fluctuations
    Erschienen: July 2, 2019
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

    We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. We focus on the uncertainty transmission mechanism, for which we employ a set of worker flow indicators in addition to labor stock variables. We incorporate common factors... mehr

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    We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. We focus on the uncertainty transmission mechanism, for which we employ a set of worker flow indicators in addition to labor stock variables. We incorporate common factors from such indicators into a framework that can simultaneously estimate historical macroeconomic uncertainty and its impacts on the macroeconomy and labor market. We find firms defer hiring as the real option value of waiting increases. Moreover, significantly more workers are laid off while voluntary quits drop, suggesting other mechanisms such as the aggregate demand channel play a crucial role

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 1904
    FRB of Dallas Working Paper ; No. 1904
    Schlagworte: Business cycle; Labor market; Uncertainty; Stochastic volatility
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation?
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf, Germany

    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best... mehr

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    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best domestic firms, irrespective of timing of acquisition. Using matching and difference-in-difference regressions, we find that firms acquired during crises experience smaller declines in R&D than those acquired during periods of growth. Our results are consistent with the opportunity cost theory of R&D over the business cycle, as we also find that crisis-acquired firms prioritize new product creation over achieving economies of scale

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ; no 403
    Schlagworte: Foreign Acquisition; Recession; Innovation; Business cycle
    Umfang: 54 Seiten, Diagramme
  25. Macroeconomics of Labor Markets
    Autor*in: Qiu, Xincheng
    Erschienen: 2023

    This dissertation examines various aspects of the macroeconomics of labor markets. Chapter 1 develops a frictional labor market model that incorporates worker vacating, i.e., workers exiting the labor market hence vacating their positions. It... mehr

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    This dissertation examines various aspects of the macroeconomics of labor markets. Chapter 1 develops a frictional labor market model that incorporates worker vacating, i.e., workers exiting the labor market hence vacating their positions. It provides novel insights into the business cycle theory of unemployment: Procyclical employment-to-nonparticipation quits contribute to vacancy fluctuations, accounting for about one-third of unemployment fluctuations. It also sheds new light on the possibility of a "soft landing" during the "Great Resignation": While creating a new job as investment activity is responsive to the interest rate, reposting a vacated position is not. Chapter 2, joint with Moritz Kuhn and Iourii Manovskii, studies the spatial differences across local labor markets. Guided by the novel facts on the geography of vacancies and job filling, we develop a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search that quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why the job-separation rate is more important in accounting for spatial differences in unemployment while the job-finding rate is more important in accounting for business cycle fluctuations in unemployment.Chapter 3, joint with Jincheng (Eric) Huang, investigates how wealth affects the allocation of workers and jobs. Using NLSY79 and O*NET, we document that wealth-poor workers are more mismatched with their jobs. We develop a model featuring worker and firm heterogeneity, search frictions, and incomplete markets, where a lack of wealth induces workers to trade off wages for finding a job faster due to precautionary motives. This phenomenon, referred to as "precautionary mismatch," leads to substantial within-type earnings and productivity gaps between the wealth-rich and the wealth-poor, especially among high-skilled workers. Chapter 4, joint with Hanming Fang, proposes and empirically implements a framework to infer from the repeated cross-sectional earnings data the experience effect, the cohort effect, and the time effect, under an identifying assumption that the growth of the experience effect stops at the end of one's working career. Applying this framework to data from China and the United States, we find that China has experienced a much larger inter-cohort productivity growth and higher increase in the rental price to human capital but lower returns to experience, compared to the U.S. We use the inferred components to revisit several applications in macroeconomics and labor economics.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798379751357
    Schriftenreihe: Dissertations Abstracts International
    Schlagworte: Public policy; Business cycle; Economic growth; Human capital; Inequality; Search and matching; Unemployment; Labor market; Macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (334 p.)
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    Source: Dissertations Abstracts International, Volume: 84-12, Section: A. - Advisor: Fang, Hanming;Manovskii, Iourii

    Dissertation (Ph.D.), University of Pennsylvania, 2023