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  1. Time-varying fiscal multipliers for South Africa
    a large time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach
    Autor*in: Du Rand, Gideon; Hollander, Hylton; Van Lill, Dawie
    Erschienen: August 2023
    Verlag:  United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland

    A critical requirement for efficient fiscal policy is a reliable understanding of its impact on the aggregate economy for different policy instruments and under different economic conditions. Indeed, there is strong evidence to suggest that fiscal... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 248
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    A critical requirement for efficient fiscal policy is a reliable understanding of its impact on the aggregate economy for different policy instruments and under different economic conditions. Indeed, there is strong evidence to suggest that fiscal multipliers vary with economic conditions, the components of government decision-making that are considered, and the identification strategy and modelling approach used. Previous studies on South Africa have typically used small-scale models or constant coefficient linear settings, which do not fully capture either the disaggregated components of spending and tax revenue or the time-varying nature of fiscal multipliers. In this paper we add to the critical evaluation of these limitations by using a large time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach estimated with Bayesian methods. We argue for an agnostic approach that studies the components of aggregate output in an economy which imposes as few restrictions and assumptions as possible. We model the impact of the government-controlled components of output on all other components and present a new way of reconciling these results to aggregate results in other studies. We find multipliers at the lower end of other findings in the literature on South Africa: our estimate of the average cumulative fiscal multiplier of government consumption on output is 0.155, while that of government investment is -0.118. Our approach also casts a cautionary light on both existing research and novel methods used to measure fiscal multipliers. As a result, convincing evidence that fiscal policy can be used actively for business cycle stabilization remains elusive.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789292674144
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283802
    Schriftenreihe: WIDER working paper ; 2023, 106
    Schlagworte: time-varying parameter vector autoregression; fiscal multipliers; Bayesian methods; stabilization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks
    Autor*in: Le Bihan, Hervé; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Pacce, Matías
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 534
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework jointly estimated on disaggregated sub-components of the euro area HICP and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory performance with respect to various criteria relevant for inflation monitoring.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289962131
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283406
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2848
    Schlagworte: underlying inflation; asymmetric risks; regime-switching; Bayesian methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen