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  1. R&D plans, expectations, and uncertainty: evidence from the COVID-19 shock in Italy
    Autor*in: Brancati, Emanuele
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper takes advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak to explore the determinants of firms' R&D choices around an exogenous shock. We make use of unique panel data on 7,800 Italian companies between January 2020 - right before the pandemic - and March... mehr

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    This paper takes advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak to explore the determinants of firms' R&D choices around an exogenous shock. We make use of unique panel data on 7,800 Italian companies between January 2020 - right before the pandemic - and March of the same year - amid lockdown policies. We then exploit the revision in firms' research plans within this short-time window to test the impact of deteriorating expectations and uncertainty on firms' R&D choices. Our results show a dramatic effect of firms' expectations about future market conditions. In this regard, internationalized and innovative companies, which were particularly suffering the onset of the crisis, display a significantly higher probability of discontinuing research plans. Beyond the role played by expectations, innovative characteristics already in place are found to critically shape firms' reactions to the general uncertainty. Two main patterns emerge from our analysis. On the one hand, there is a strong degree of persistence in R&D choices for a small set of innovators with substantial past expenditure in in-house research activities. On the other, the COVID-19 shock especially jeopardized R&D plans of firms that recently started new research programs or newly innovative companies. We interpret such results as evidence that preexisting sunk costs increase the persistence of R&D choices after uncertainty shocks.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250550
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14889
    Schlagworte: firms; R&D; expectations; uncertainty; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Sequential exporting across countries and products
    Autor*in: Albornoz, Facundo; Calvo Pardo, Héctor F.; Corcos, Gregory; Ornelas, Emanuel
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1774 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: export dynamics; experimentation; uncertainty; multiproduct firms; market inter-dependence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Uncertainty, misallocation and the life-cycle growth of firms
    Autor*in: Mäkynen, Eero; Vähämaa, Oskari
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Aboa Centre for Economics, Turku

    We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong... mehr

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    We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong decreasing age-dependent trend in it. To understand these observations, we set up a life-cycle model of firm growth where new firms have to learn their productivity. We match our model with the salient features of the data and show that our model implies idiosyncratic distortions, in line with our accounting approach. According to our quantitative results, uncertainty suppresses output by 38%, while misallocation has a 26% negative effect on output.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265184
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Aboa Centre for Economics ; no. 146
    Schlagworte: firm dynamics; uncertainty; misallocation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. On the design of labor market programs as stabilization policies
    Autor*in: Jung, Euiyoung
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Paris School of Economics, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Paris School of Economics ; no 2021, 36
    Schlagworte: new keynesian; uncertainty; unemployment; incomplete markets; labor market policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Under attack: terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Autor*in: Nitsch, Volker; Rabaud, Isabelle
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... mehr

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France's trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country's trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     
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    hdl: 10419/234571
    Schriftenreihe: Darmstadt discussion papers in economics ; Nr. 241
    Schlagworte: shock; insecurity; uncertainty; terrorism; international trade; France
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Under attack
    terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Autor*in: Nitsch, Volker; Rabaud, Isabelle
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... mehr

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France’s trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236650
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9108 (2021)
    Schlagworte: shock; insecurity; uncertainty; terrorism; international trade; France
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Sequential exporting across countries and products
    Autor*in: Albornoz, Facundo; Calvo Pardo, Héctor F.; Corcos, Gregory; Ornelas, Emanuel
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add... mehr

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    How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add products and countries sequentially, in an interdependent process. Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we find empirical support consistent with such a mechanism, where firms learn from their initial export experiences and then adjust their sales, number of products and destination countries accordingly. Our results indicate that part of the learning is firm-specific, and not merely product- or market-specific. Furthermore, we find that firms tend to expand in the sub-extensive margin first by widening product scope within a destination and later by entering new destinations; and that firms’ core products are particularly resilient despite being used to “test the waters” when entering additional countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236661
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9119 (2021)
    Schlagworte: export dynamics; experimentation; uncertainty; multiproduct firms; market interdependence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Monetary policy and the management of uncertainty
    a narrative approach
    Autor*in: Tuckett, David; Holmes, Douglas; Pearson, Alice; Chaplin, Graeme
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 870
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; narrative theory; uncertainty; inflation-targeting; central bank communication; macroeconomic theory; economic knowledge
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  9. GARCH analyses of risk and uncertainty in the theories of the interest rate of Keynes and Kalecki
    Autor*in: Gabrisch, Hubert
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Wien

    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically... mehr

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    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes's theory - the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.

     
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    hdl: 10419/240634
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / wiiw ; 191
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; interest rate; Keynes; Kalecki; GARCH
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Uncertainty as a Poetic Principle: A Reading of the Opening Scene in Joseph Ben Zabara’s The Book of Delight
    Autor*in: Einat-Nov, Idit
    Erschienen: 2021

    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic... mehr

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    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic principle of uncertainty, and is therefore associated with the various forms of the ambiguous and the ambivalent (the grotesque, the uncanny, the ironic, etc.). As I have argued elsewhere about other rhymed Hebrew stories, this approach is appropriate, in my view, to the character of some of the most fascinating rhymed stories produced in medieval Hebrew literature. In the present study I suggest yet another demonstration of the poetic benefit that can accrue from the adoption of this approach.

     
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    Übergeordneter Titel: Enthalten in: European journal of jewish studies; Biggleswade : Brill, 2007; 15(2021), 1, Seite 153-168; Online-Ressource

    Schlagworte: the uncanny; uncertainty; The Book of Delight; Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara
  11. "I heard the news today, oh boy"
    an updated version of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) - and some general thoughts on news-based economic indicators
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Hornig, Nico
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    News-based indicators are in vogue in economics. But they tend to be applied with little consideration for the properties of news itself. In this paper, we try to shed light on the nature of this type of data. Drawing from established findings in... mehr

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    News-based indicators are in vogue in economics. But they tend to be applied with little consideration for the properties of news itself. In this paper, we try to shed light on the nature of this type of data. Drawing from established findings in communication science and journalism studies we argue that news-based indicators should be taken with a pinch of salt, since news is a somewhat biased representation of political and social reality. Contrary to economics and other social sciences, journalism tends to be driven by outliers, the outrageous, and the outraged. This structural dissonance between journalism and other disciplines needs to be born in mind when dealing with news content as data, and it is of particular concern in the context of economic developments. While economics and statistics are inherently backward looking, trying to make sense of the (immediate) past using models and probability distributions derived from bygone observations, journalism is about the present, and sometimes about the future. What’s going on right now? And where does it lead us? Seeking answers to these questions makes news a valuable data input, as a measure of what drives society at a given point in time. We show how taking the properties of news into consideration influences the entire process of large-scale news analysis. As an example, we update our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (Müller and Hornig 2020), setting it on a firmer footing by enlarging the newspaper corpus considerably. The new version of the UPI for Germany yields some remarkable results. At the trough of the Covid-19-induced economic crisis in Q2 of 2020, the overall indicator already decreased considerably, although it stayed at elevated levels. Deconstructing the UPI by applying the topic modelling approach Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), shows that the coverage of the pandemic has merged with the issue of climate change and its mitigation. In the past decade or so incalculable politics was the main driver of economic uncertainty perception. Now truly exogenous developments, neither elicited by the economy nor by politics, come to the fore, adding to the sense of an inherently unstable world.

     
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    hdl: 10419/228623
    hdl: 2003/39777
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0, 17 October 2020
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 2020, 2
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; economic policy; business cycles; Covid-19; Latent Dirichlet Allocation; Ungewissheit; Wirtschaftskreislauf; Stochastisches Modell; Wirtschaftspolitik; Indikator
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. "For the times they are a-changin'"
    gauging uncertainty perception over time
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Hornig, Nico; Rieger, Jonas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    This paper deals with the problem of deriving consistent time-series from newspaper contentbased topic models. In the first part, we recapitulate a few our own failed attempts, in the second one, we show some results using a twin strategy, that we... mehr

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    This paper deals with the problem of deriving consistent time-series from newspaper contentbased topic models. In the first part, we recapitulate a few our own failed attempts, in the second one, we show some results using a twin strategy, that we call prototyping and seeding. Given the popularity news-based indicators have assumed in econometric analyses in recent years, this seems to be a valuable exercise for researchers working on related issues. Building on earlier writings, where we use the topic modelling approach Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to gauge economic uncertainty perception, we show the difficulties that arise when a number of one-shot LDAs, performed at different points in time, are used to produce something akin of a time-series. The models' topic structures differ considerably from computation to computation. Neither parameter variations nor the accumulation of several topics to broader categories of related content are able solve the problem of incompatibleness. It is not just the content that is added at each observation point, but the very properties of LDA itself: since it uses random initializations and conditional reassignments within the iterative process, fundamentally different models can emerge when the algorithm is executed several times, even if the data and the parameter settings are identical. To tame LDA's randomness, we apply a newish "prototyping" approach to the corpus, upon which our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) is built. Still, the outcomes vary considerably over time. To get closer to our goal, we drop the notion that LDA models should be allowed to take various forms freely at each run. Instead, the topic structure is fixated, using a "seeding" technique that distributes incoming new data to our model's existing topic structure. This approach seems to work quite well, as our consistent and plausible results show, but it is bound to run into difficulties over time either.

     
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    hdl: 2003/39995
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0, January 2021
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 3
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; economic policy; business cycles; Covid-19; Latent Dirichlet Allocation; Seeded LDA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Pandemic-era uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
    Autor*in: Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas; Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty... mehr

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    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and in potential gross domestic product.

     
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    hdl: 10419/244305
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021,2 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Sentiment and uncertainty about regulation
    Autor*in: Sinclair, Tara M.; Xie, Zhoudan
    Erschienen: July 4, 2021
    Verlag:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Schriftenreihe: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 54 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Regulation; text analysis; NLP; sentiment analysis; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Green consumption: the impact of trust and pessimism
    Autor*in: Montoya Villalobos, Maria José
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  EconomiX - UMR7235, Université Paris Nanterre, Nanterre

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / EconomiX ; 2021, 9
    Schlagworte: Green consumption; trust; pessimism; uncertainty; impure public goods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  16. Economic valuation of biodiversity-oriented forest management strategies under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Augustynczik, Andrey L.D.
    Erschienen: [2021]; © 2021
    Verlag:  University of Freiburg, Chair of Forestry Economics and Forest Planning, Freiburg im Breisgau

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 9783943842081
    Schriftenreihe: Research papers ; Volume 7
    Schlagworte: Forstwirtschaft; Artenvielfalt; Wald; Ökosystem; Waldschutz; Umweltbewertung; Klimawandel; Theorie; Deutschland; Forstwirtschaft; Artenreichtum; forest biodiversity; retention forestry; forest planning; forest economics; uncertainty; climate change; optimization; Waldbiodiversität; Forstplanung; Forstökonomie; Unsicherheit; Klimawandel; Optimierung
    Umfang: 292 Seiten, Diagramme, Illustrationen
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    Dissertation, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg im Breisgau, 2019
  17. Under attack
    terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Autor*in: Nitsch, Volker; Rabaud, Isabelle
    Erschienen: December 28, 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... mehr

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 125
    Schlagworte: shock; insecurity; uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Smart cap
    Autor*in: Karp, Larry S.; Traeger, Christian
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We introduce a "smart" cap and trade system that eliminates the welfare costs of asymmetric information (“uncertainty”). This cap responds endogenously to technology or macroeconomic shocks, relying on the market price of certificates to aggregate... mehr

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    We introduce a "smart" cap and trade system that eliminates the welfare costs of asymmetric information (“uncertainty”). This cap responds endogenously to technology or macroeconomic shocks, relying on the market price of certificates to aggregate information. It allows policy makers to modify existing institutions to achieve more efficient emission reductions. The paper also shows that the efficient carbon price is more sensitive to technological innovations than usually assumed. The lasting impact and slow diffusion of these innovations typically make the optimal carbon price a much steeper function of emissions than suggested by the social cost of carbon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235287
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8917 (2021)
    Schlagworte: pollution; climate change; taxes; quantities; regulation; smart cap; uncertainty; technology diffusion; dynamic programming; integrated assessment; DICE
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. What is certain about uncertainty?
    Autor*in: Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Sarisoy, Cisil; Londono, Juan M.; Rogers, John H.; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Ferreira, Thiago; Grishchenko, Olesya; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.; Loria, Francesca; Ma, Sai; Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del; Zer, Ilknur
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    Schriftenreihe: International finance discussion papers ; number 1294 (July 2020)
    Schlagworte: global risk; uncertainty; volatility; crises; economic policy; monetary policy; geopolitical risk; trade policy; downside risk
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Portfolio liquidation under factor uncertainty
    Autor*in: Horst, Ulrich; Xia, Xiaonyu; Zhou, Chao
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    We study an optimal liquidation problem under the ambiguity with respect to price impact parameters. Our main results show that the value function and the optimal trading strategy can be characterized by the solution to a semi-linear PDE with... mehr

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    We study an optimal liquidation problem under the ambiguity with respect to price impact parameters. Our main results show that the value function and the optimal trading strategy can be characterized by the solution to a semi-linear PDE with superlinear gradient, monotone generator and singular terminal value. We also establish an asymptotic analysis of the robust model for small amounts of uncertainty and analyze the effect of robustness on optimal trading strategies and liquidation costs. In particular, in our model ambiguity aversion is observationally equivalent to increased risk aversion. This suggests that ambiguity aversion increases liquidation rates.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 274 (January 26, 2021)
    Schlagworte: stochastic control; uncertainty; portfolio liquidation; singular terminal value; superlinear growth gradient
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten)
  21. The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on household spending
    Autor*in: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of... mehr

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    Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non-durable goods and services in subsequent months as well as to engage in fewer purchases of larger items such as package holidays or luxury goods. Moreover, uncertainty reduces household propensity to invest in mutual funds. These results support the notion that macroeconomic uncertainty can impact household decisions and have large negative effects on economic outcomes.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14213
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; household spending; household finance; surveys; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Unit cost expectations and uncertainty
    firms' perspectives on inflation
    Autor*in: Meyer, Brent H.; Parker, Nicholas B.; Sheng, Xuguang
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty through the lens of firms' unit (marginal) costs. Using methods grounded in the survey literature,... mehr

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    We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty through the lens of firms' unit (marginal) costs. Using methods grounded in the survey literature, we find evidence that the concept of "aggregate inflation" as measured through price statistics like the consumer price index hold very little relevance for business decision makers. This lack of relevance manifests itself through experiments (including randomized controlled trials) that show how researchers word questions to elicit inflation expectations and perceptions significantly changes firms' responses. Our results suggest firms have become rationally ignorant of the concept of inflation in a low-inflation environment. Instead, we find that unit (marginal) costs are the relevant lens with which to capture firms' views on the nominal side of the economy. We then investigate both firm-level (micro) and aggregated (macro) probabilistic unit cost expectations. On a firm level, unit costs are an important determinant of firms' price-setting behavior. Aggregating across firms' beliefs, firms' unit cost perceptions strongly comove with official aggregate price statistics, and, importantly, firms' expectations for the nominal side of the economy have little in common with the "prices in general" expectations of households. Rather, firms' aggregated beliefs strongly covary with the inflation expectations of professional forecasters and market participants.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021, 12 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: bimodality; inflation expectations; probability distributions; randomized controlled trials; uncertainty; unit cost
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Economic uncertainty and fertility
    Autor*in: Gozgor, Giray; Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin; Rangazas, Peter C.
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine... mehr

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    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index and focus on data from 126 countries for the period from 1996 to 2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is pro-cyclical.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9025 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Fertilität; Risiko; Vorsichtssparen; Konjunktur; Wirtschaftsindikator; Welt; fertility; uncertainty; WUI Index; precautionary saving; business cycle; panel data estimation techniques
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The transition from school to post-secondary education - what factors affect educational decisions?
    Autor*in: Seidel, Katja
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Lüneburg

    This paper analyses the concrete post-school decision of school students whether to study or to enter the German VET system. It focuses on the investigation of individual risk preferences and the social background of individuals, and the effect on... mehr

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    This paper analyses the concrete post-school decision of school students whether to study or to enter the German VET system. It focuses on the investigation of individual risk preferences and the social background of individuals, and the effect on the ultimate decision to enrol in university or to start an apprenticeship, given the same level of qualification. For the empirical approach, the German SOEP is used, and information on individuals' educational decisions between 2007 and 2013 is considered. The results indicate that (i) individual risk preferences do not have an overall effect on the real transition and are not conditional on the academic background of parents; (ii) privileged individuals are more likely to take up higher education; and (iii) even when parents without an academic background support their children during school, they are less likely to guide their children into tertiary education.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: University of Lüneburg working paper series in economics ; no. 398 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Educational decision; risk preferences; uncertainty; social classes; family background
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  25. An anchor in stormy seas
    does reforming economic institutions reduce Uncertainty? : evidence from New Zealand
    Autor*in: Ryan, Michael
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper in economics / University of Waikato ; 20, 11
    Schlagworte: Institutions; economic reform; uncertainty; New Zealand
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen