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  1. The COVID-19 pandemic's evolving impacts on the labor market: who's been hurt and what we should do
    Autor*in: Hershbein, Brad; Holzer, Harry J.
    Erschienen: 2-11-2021
    Verlag:  W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, MI

    In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy... mehr

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    In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes - including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs - and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the labor market recovery of the summer and early fall stagnated in late fall and early winter. As noted by others, we find low-wage and minority workers are hardest hit initially, but that recoveries have varied, and not always consistently, between Blacks and Hispanics. Statewide business closures and other restrictions on economic activity reduce employment rates concurrently but do not seem to have lingering effects once relaxed. In contrast, virus deaths - but not caseloads - not only depress current employment but produce accumulating harm. We conclude with policy options for states to repair their labor markets.

     
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    hdl: 10419/246055
    Schriftenreihe: Upjohn Institute working paper ; 21, 341
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; employment rates; inequality; pandemic recession; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: 19 June 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16277
    Schlagworte: merchandise trade; container; shipping; Manufacturing; Consumption; COVID-19,Supply Chain; Recession; recovery; Globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North... mehr

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    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 57% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 78%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236696
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9154 (2021)
    Schlagworte: merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; Covid-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Cultural resilience, religion, and economic recovery
    evidence from the 2005 hurricane season
    Autor*in: Hasan, Iftekhar; Manfredonia, Stefano; Noth, Felix
    Erschienen: [27. Juni 2021]
    Verlag:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious... mehr

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    This paper investigates the critical role of religion in the economic recovery after high-impact natural disasters. Exploiting the 2005 hurricane season in the southeast United States, we document that establishments in counties with higher religious adherence rates saw a significantly stronger recovery in terms of productivity for 2005-2010. Our results further suggest that a particular religious denomination does not drive the effect. We observe that different aspects of religion, such as adherence, shared experiences from ancestors, and institutionalised features, all drive the effect on recovery. Our results matter since they underline the importance of cultural characteristics like religion during and after economic crises.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235504
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This is a completely revised version
    Schriftenreihe: IWH discussion papers ; 2021, no. 9 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: establishment-level productivity; natural disasters; recovery; religion
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 67 Seiten), Diagramme
  5. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil... mehr

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    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249000
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9455 (2021)
    Schlagworte: scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Labor market trends and outcomes
    what has changed since the Great Recession?
    Autor*in: Groshen, Erica L.; Holzer, Harry J.
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We describe trends in wages and labor force participation for the "working class" - whom we define as workers with high school or less education - compared to those with college or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979-2019,... mehr

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    We describe trends in wages and labor force participation for the "working class" - whom we define as workers with high school or less education - compared to those with college or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979-2019, with particular focus on the Great Recession (2007-2010) and recovery (2010-2019). We also present results by gender and race. We find real wage growth in the latter period for all workers, but not enough to change the long-term trends of growing inequality and stagnant wages for the less-educated; and we also find that labor force participation continued to decline for the less-educated, even during the recovery. Gaps between whites and blacks also grew while Hispanics and Asians made more progress. We consider various explanations of these findings, and show that the early effects of the 2020-21 pandemic recession that hurt lesseducated workers and those of color more than anyone else.

     
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    hdl: 10419/243459
    Schriftenreihe: IZA policy paper ; no. 173
    Schlagworte: wages; participation; working class; Great Recession; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil... mehr

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    Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a yearover-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, and by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248405
    Schriftenreihe: CFS working paper series ; no. 670
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2108
    Schlagworte: Merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; COVID-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: November 1, 2021
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2116
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: 05 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16776
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; Expectation; oil price; gasoline price; Household survey; Core; Pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Autor*in: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Center for Financial Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North... mehr

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    Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 59% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 76%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.

     
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    hdl: 10419/246871
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 13, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: CFS working paper series ; no. 659
    Schlagworte: Merchandise trade; container; shipping; manufacturing; consumption; COVID-19; supply chain; recession; recovery; globalization
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. EU employment dynamics
    the pandemic years and beyond
    Autor*in: Jestl, Stefan; Stehrer, Robert
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties.... mehr

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    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266042
    Schriftenreihe: Research report / wiiw ; 457 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: EU employment dynamics; forecasts; pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Reforming the international trading system for recovery, resilience and inclusive development
    Autor*in: Davies, Rob; Kozul-Wright, Richard; Banga, Rashmi; Capaldo, Jeronim; Gallogly-Swan, Katie
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, Geneva

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    Schriftenreihe: UNCTAD research paper ; No. 65
    Schlagworte: WTO reform; hyperglobalization; structural transformation; policy space; intellectual property rights; Covid-19; recovery; resilience,Agenda 2030
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  14. Recovering from COVID-19
    economic scenarios for South Africa
    Autor*in: Seventer, Dirk van; Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Robinson, Sherman
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 02033 (July 2021)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; South Africa; recovery; GDP; lockdown
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Building back fairer from the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa
    some first step reforms in an era of fiscal constraints
    Autor*in: Arndt, Channing; Davies, Rob; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Laurence; Sachs, Michael; Seventer, Dirk van
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: IFPRI discussion paper ; 02043 (September 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; South Africa; recovery; growth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen