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  1. The nature of long-term unemployment: predictability, heterogeneity and selection
    Autor*in: Müller, Andreas; Spinnewijn, Johannes
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 4
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest gains come from adding job seekers' employment history prior to becoming unemployed. Applying our prediction algorithm over the unemployment spell, we show that dynamic selection into LTU explains at least half of the observed decline in job finding. While the within-individual declines are small on average, we find substantial heterogeneity in the individual-level declines and thus reject the commonly used proportional hazard assumption. Applying our prediction algorithm over the business cycle, we find that the cyclicality in average LTU risk is not driven by composition but rather by within-individual cyclicality and that individual rankings are relatively persistent across years. Finally, we evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change over the unemployment spell and the business cycle.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272582
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15955
    Schlagworte: long-term unemployment; heterogeneity; selection; duration dependence; business cycle; targeting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation
    the role of non-linearities
    Autor*in: Esady, Vania; Speigner, Bradley; Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 443
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 1018 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; non-linearity; long-term unemployment; cross-sectionalidentification
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen