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  1. A note on temporary supply shocks with aggregate demand inertia
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in... mehr

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    We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output gaps expected to emerge once supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase: The central bank undoes the initial interest rate cuts once aggregate demand gains momentum. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time.

     

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    hdl: 10419/252120
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9603 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Gesamtwirtschaftliches Angebot; Inflation; Schock; Schätzung; monetary policy; interest rates; temporary supply shocks; aggregate demand inertia; inflation; Taylor rule; divine coincidence; policy frontloading; aggregate demand momentum; output and inflation gaps; the Phillips curve; Covid-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020-23
    Erschienen: 05 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16776
    Schlagworte: Scenario; inflation; Expectation; oil price; gasoline price; Household survey; Core; Pandemic; recovery
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The use of scanner data for economics research
    Erschienen: 25 January 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16954
    Schlagworte: scanner data; Demand estimation; market power; policy counterfactual; inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The distributional implications of the impact of fuel price increases on inflation
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to... mehr

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    This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries

     

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9781616356156
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 271
    Schlagworte: Fuel prices; inflation; local projections; household welfare; Deflation; Inflation; Price Level; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; Redistributive Effects; Taxation and Subsidies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Extreme inflation and time-varying expected consumption growth
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    In a parsimonious regime switching model, we find strong evidence that expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with... mehr

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    In a parsimonious regime switching model, we find strong evidence that expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stockbond return correlations. They also provide an alternative derivation for a measure of time-varying disaster risk suggested by Wachter (2013), implying that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond correlation.

     

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249177
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: January 3, 2022
    Schriftenreihe: SAFE working paper ; no. 334 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: Long-run risk; inflation; recursive utility; filtering; disaster risk
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 980 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: expectations; forecast; inflation; machine learning; oil price; output gap; Phillips curve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Back to the future: intellectual challenges formonetary policy
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 981 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; business cycle; financial cycle; inflation; deflation; natural interest rate
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. How might the UK's Debt-GDP ratio be reduced?
    evidence from the last 120 years
    Erschienen: 02 April 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17172
    Schlagworte: Debt-GDP ratio; primary deficit; growth; inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Stock prices and the Russia-Ukraine war
    sanctions, energy and esg
    Erschienen: 11 April 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17207
    Schlagworte: Climate transition risk; Energy; ESG; Event studies; inflation; resilience; Russia-Ukraine war; Stock returns
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A note on temporary supply shocks with aggregate demand inertia
    Erschienen: 15 December 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16814
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage; Gesamtwirtschaftliches Angebot; Inflation; Schock; Schätzung; monetary policy; interest rates; temporary supply shocks; aggregate demand inertia; inflation; Taylor rule; divine coincidence; aggregate demand momentum; output and inflation gaps; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2138
    Schlagworte: forecasting; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips curve; bayesian VAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 77 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Monetary policy during unbalanced global recoveries
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  BSE, Barcelona School of Economics, [Barcelona]

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    Schriftenreihe: BSE working paper ; 1313 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: asymmetric shocks; reallocation; monetary policy; international monetary cooperation; inflation; global supply shortages
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. How should central banks react to household inflation heterogeneity?
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf, Germany

    Empirical evidence suggests that considerable differentials in inflation rates exist across households. This paper investigates how central banks should react to household inflation heterogeneity in a tractable New Keynesian model. We include two... mehr

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    Empirical evidence suggests that considerable differentials in inflation rates exist across households. This paper investigates how central banks should react to household inflation heterogeneity in a tractable New Keynesian model. We include two households that differ in their consumer price inflation rates after adverse shocks. The central bank reacts to either an average of the households' consumer price inflation rates or their individual rates, respectively. After a negative demand shock, the consumer price inflation rates of both households diverge less from their steady states when the central bank only considers the individual inflation rate of the household experiencing the higher inflation rate. Furthermore, output fluctuates less under that regime. After a negative supply shock, a central bank only considering the household experiencing the higher inflation rate mitigates the immediate effects of the shock on both consumer price inflation rates more effectively. Our results imply that central banks, which react discretionarily to differing inflation experiences in an economy, lead to a more efficient attainment of an economy-wide inflation target and to lower fluctuations of all inflation rates.

     

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    ISBN: 9783863043773
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249301
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ; no 378
    Schlagworte: Business cycles; inflation; inequality; household heterogeneity; New Keynesian models
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Household inventory, temporary sales, and price indices
    Erschienen: August 5, 2021
    Verlag:  Center for Advanced Research in Finance, [Tokyo]

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; CARF-F-520
    Schlagworte: consumer inventory; cost-of-living index; temporary sales; inflation; price elasticity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Effects of carbon pricing on inflation
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study how carbon pricing has affected inflation ex-post, using dynamic panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for 35 OECD economies from 1995 to 2020. As carbon pricing we consider prices of emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon... mehr

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    We study how carbon pricing has affected inflation ex-post, using dynamic panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for 35 OECD economies from 1995 to 2020. As carbon pricing we consider prices of emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon taxes. We find that an increase in prices of ETS by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases energy CPI inflation by 0.8 percentage points (pp), and headline inflation by 0.08pp, but has no significant effects on food and core CPI inflation. We also find that an increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases food CPI inflation by 0.1pp, but has no significant effects on energy CPI inflation, headline and core CPI inflation.

     

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    hdl: 10419/252080
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9563 (2022)
    Schlagworte: climate policies; carbon tax; carbon emission trading system; climate change; inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The use of scanner data for economics research
    Erschienen: January 2022
    Verlag:  [Toulouse School of Economics], [Toulouse]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Toulouse School of Economics ; no 1286
    Schlagworte: scanner data; demand estimation; market power; policy counterfactual; inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Inflationary household uncertainty shocks
    Autor*in: Ambrocio, Gene
    Erschienen: 14 February 2022
    Verlag:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely... mehr

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    I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. Further analysis, including a comparison of results across countries, suggest that factors related to average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. These results lend support to a pricing bias mechanism as an important transmission channel.

     

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    ISBN: 9789523234024
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251465
    Schriftenreihe: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2022, 5
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; inflation; surveys of expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Stock prices and the Russia-Ukraine war
    sanctions, energy and ESG
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    In the build-up to and especially in the weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stocks strongly exposed to the regulatory risks of the transition to a low-carbon economy did well, suggesting an expected slow-down of that transition. Analysts... mehr

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    In the build-up to and especially in the weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stocks strongly exposed to the regulatory risks of the transition to a low-carbon economy did well, suggesting an expected slow-down of that transition. Analysts increased their earnings estimates for these stocks. The stock price effects were strongest in the US. In Europe, the effects were less pronounced or even opposite, arguably because market participants expect stronger policy responses supporting renewable energy sources in the face of the pronounced dependence of Europe on Russian oil and gas. Overall, investors thus expect the speed of transition to a low-carbon economy to be diverging between the US and Europe. The analysis controls for a range of different Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) measures (for which we obtain mixed results). Companies that more frequently refer to inflation in their conference calls with analysts performed worse. Internationally oriented firms did poorly, and investors were particularly concerned regarding companies' exposure to China. Overall, the results offer a preview of the challenging economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

     

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    Schriftenreihe: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 22, 29
    Schlagworte: Climate transition risk; energy; ESG; event study; inflation; resilience; Russia-Ukraine war; stock returns
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Prices and inflation in the UK-
    a new dataset
    Autor*in: Davies, Richard
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; No. 55 (February 2021)
    Schlagworte: EU referendum; covid-19; consumer prices; inflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The sticky information Phillips curve
    evidence for Australia
    Erschienen: April 2015
    Verlag:  Reserve Bank of Australia, [Sydney]

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    Schriftenreihe: Research discussion paper / Reserve Bank of Australia ; RDP 2015, 04
    Schlagworte: sticky information; Phillips curve; inflation; Australia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Global stagflation
    Erschienen: 13 June 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17381
    Schlagworte: inflation; growth; COVID-19; Global Recession; monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Disinflation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Did the global financial crisis and the pandemic induce persistent deflation avoidance in major central banks?
    Autor*in: Cukierman, Alex
    Erschienen: 13 June 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17384
    Schlagworte: Recession avoidance; inflation; policy rates in aftermath of pandemic and globalfinancial crisis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The GSCPI
    a new barometer of global supply chain pressures
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index's... mehr

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    We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index's capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266101
    Schriftenreihe: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 1017 (May 2022)
    Schlagworte: global supply chain; inflation; transportation costs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. New facts on consumer price rigidity in the euro area

    Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries covering about 60% of the euro area consumption basket over the period 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) each month on average 12.3% of prices change,... mehr

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    Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries covering about 60% of the euro area consumption basket over the period 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) each month on average 12.3% of prices change, which compares with 19.3% in the United States; when we exclude price changes due to sales, however, the proportion of prices adjusted each month is 8.5% in the euro area versus 10% in the United States; (ii) differences in price rigidity are rather limited across euro area countries but much larger across sectors; (iii) the median price increase (resp. decrease) is 9.6% (13%) when including sales and 6.7% (8.7%) when excluding sales; cross-country heterogeneity is more pronounced for the size than for the frequency of price changes; (iv) the distribution of price changes is highly dispersed: 14% of price changes in absolute values are lower than 2% whereas 10% are above 20%; (v) the overall frequency of price changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly driven by movements in the overall size; when decomposing the overall size, changes in the share of price increases among all changes matter more than movements in the size of price increases or the size of price decreases. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more relevant driver of price adjustment than aggregate shocks.

     

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    hdl: 10419/273112
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper research / National Bank of Belgium ; no 408 (June 2022)
    Schlagworte: price rigidity; inflation; consumer prices; micro data
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  25. Low passthrough from inflation expectations to income growth expectations: why people dislike inflation
    Erschienen: 04 June 2022
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP17356
    Schlagworte: inflation; wage-price spiral; Expectations; randomized controlled trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)