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  1. Estimating the consequences of climate change from variation in weather
    Autor*in: Lemoine, Derek
    Erschienen: November 2018
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: University of Arizona working paper ; 18, 09
    Schlagworte: climate; weather; information; forecasts; expectations; adjustment; adaptation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The effect of elections on consumer confidence in Europe
    Autor*in: Marc, Bertrand; Reuter, Andreas
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789279774270
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 090 (November 2018)
    Schlagworte: Effect of elections; consumer confidence; Europe; Marc; Reuter; expectations; Business and consumer surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Housing consumption and investment
    evidence from shared equity mortgages
    Autor*in: Benetton, Matteo; Bracke, Philippe; Cocco, João F.; Garbarino, Nicola
    Erschienen: April 2019
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 790
    Schlagworte: Housing; consumption; investment; affordability; macro-prudential policy; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 87 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations
    Autor*in: Heiss, Florian; Hurd, Michael D.; Rooij, Maarten van; Rossmann, Tobias; Winter, Joachim
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / De Nederlandsche Bank NV ; no. 640 (June 2019)
    Schlagworte: expectations; stock markets; financial crisis; mixture models; surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The prince and me
    a model of fiscal credibility
    Autor*in: End, Nicolas
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Aix-Marseille School of Economics, [Aix-en-Provence

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: May 7, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / AMSE, Aix-Marseille School of Economics ; WP 2021, nr 27
    Schlagworte: Fiscal policy; credibility; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty
    evidence using subjective expectations
    Autor*in: Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    Schriftenreihe: International finance discussion papers ; number 1320 (June 2021)
    Schlagworte: Uncertainty; business cycles; investment; expectations; cash holdings; downside uncertainty
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The influence of empirical and normative expectations on cooperation
    Autor*in: Kölle, Felix; Quercia, Simone
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    In this paper, we investigate the joint influence of empirical and normative expectations on cooperative behavior. We conduct two experimental studies (n = 243) in which we separately elicit (i) behavior in a public goods game and (ii) social norms... mehr

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    In this paper, we investigate the joint influence of empirical and normative expectations on cooperative behavior. We conduct two experimental studies (n = 243) in which we separately elicit (i) behavior in a public goods game and (ii) social norms under the form of normative and empirical expectations. In a situation where individuals can decide conditionally on others' contributions, we find a strong norm of conditional cooperation whereby people find it socially appropriate to match others contribution and believe others to comply with such rule of behavior. In contrast, when there is strategic uncertainty regarding others' behavior, empirical and normative expectations diverge substantially. While individuals believe that contributing fully to the public good is the most appropriate action, they expect others to contribute only half of their resources. This renders normative expectations unpredictive for average behavior and underlines the importance of a close alignment of empirical and normative expectations for the influence of social norms on behavior.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237344
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: June 2021
    Schriftenreihe: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 099
    Schlagworte: Cooperation; social norms; expectations; public goods; experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Consequences of future climate policy
    regional economies, financial markets, and the direction of innovation
    Autor*in: Schickfus, Marie-Theres von
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    With the Paris Agreement of 2016, 189 nations signed a legally binding document to keep global warming below 2 C, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C. It was recognized that this would reduce climate change impacts... mehr

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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Bundesverfassungsgericht, Bibliothek
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    Online-Ressource
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    With the Paris Agreement of 2016, 189 nations signed a legally binding document to keep global warming below 2 C, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C. It was recognized that this would reduce climate change impacts substantially. All signatories submitted "Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" (INDCs) where they specified their national emission reduction goals and pathways to achieve them. However, the INDCs submitted for the Paris Agreement "imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100" (Rogelj et al. 2016). A temperature increase by 2 C would already carry a very high risk for systems such as the Arctic sea ice and coral reefs. For a warming of 3 C above pre-industrial levels though, we are expected to face extensive losses of biodiversity and ecosystems; accelerated economic damages; and a high risk for abrupt and irreversible changes ("tipping points"), such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the accompanying sea level rise (IPCC 2014b).

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783959420969
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234463
    Schriftenreihe: ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung ; 95 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Stranded assets; climate policy; expectations; utilities; event study; green innovation; patents; panel analysis; green finance; climate risk; intangible assets; institutional investors; renewable energy; crowding-out; regional economics; input-output ana
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 218 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe

    Dissertation, Universität München, 2020
  9. The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: evidence from a new survey
    Autor*in: Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique... mehr

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    Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and professional forecasters. By any typical definition of "anchored" expectations, the inflation expectations of U.S. managers appear far from anchored, much like those of households. And like households, U.S. managers are largely uninformed about recent aggregate inflation dynamics or monetary policy. These results complement existing evidence on firms' inflation expectations from other countries and confirm that inattention to inflation and monetary policy is pervasive among U.S. firms as well.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/236409
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14378
    Schlagworte: expectations; surveys; anchoring; rational inattention
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Human capital and education policy
    evidence from survey data
    Autor*in: Grewenig, Elisabeth
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ifo Institut, München

    Elisabeth Grewenig prepared this study while she was working at the Center for Economics of Education at the ifo Institute. The study was completed in March 2021 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the LMU Munich. It... mehr

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    Elisabeth Grewenig prepared this study while she was working at the Center for Economics of Education at the ifo Institute. The study was completed in March 2021 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the LMU Munich. It consists of five distinct empirical essays that address various aspects of human capital formation and education policy. Chapters 2 and 3 are concerned with the determinants of human capital formation. In particular, chapter 2 investigates the impact of gender norms on labor-supply expectations of adolescents. Chapter 3 analyzes the effects of the Corona-induced school closures on students' time spent with different educational activities. Chapters 4 and 5 are concerned with the implementation and feasibility of educational reforms. Thereby, chapter 4 evaluates the impact of recent reforms on binding teacher recommendations by studying educational outcomes of students in primary and secondary schools. Chapter 5 examines whether support for educational policies is amenable to information provision about party-positions. Finally, chapter 6 contributes to the methodological debate around survey measurement by investigating belief elicitation in large-scale online surveys.

     
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    ISBN: 9783959420990
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243180
    Schriftenreihe: ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung ; 96 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Stranded assets; climate policy; expectations; utilities; event study; green innovation; patents; panel analysis; green finance; climate risk; intangible assets; institutional investors; renewable energy; crowding-out; regional economics; input-output ana; Gender Norms; Female Labor Supply; Survey Experiments; EducationalInequality; COVID-19; Low-Achieving Students; Home Schooling; DistanceTeaching; School Tracking; Admission Policies; Student Performance; Political Parties; Partisanship; Information; Endogenous Preferences; Voters,Family Policy; Beliefs; Incentives; Online Search
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 294 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe

    Dissertation, Universität München, 2021
  11. Initial beliefs uncertainty and information weighting in the estimation of models with adaptive learning
    Autor*in: Galimberti, Jaqueson K.
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  [Auckland University of Technology], [Auckland, New Zealand]

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    hdl: 10419/242588
    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series / Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, AUT ; 2021, 01
    Schlagworte: expectations; adaptive learning; bounded rationality; macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Monetary communication rules
    Autor*in: Gati, Laura; Handlan, Amy
    Erschienen: 03 January 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Does the Federal Reserve follow a communication rule? We propose a simple framework to estimate communication rules, which we conceptualize as a systematic mapping between the Fed's expectations of macroeconomic variables and the words they use to... mehr

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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    Does the Federal Reserve follow a communication rule? We propose a simple framework to estimate communication rules, which we conceptualize as a systematic mapping between the Fed's expectations of macroeconomic variables and the words they use to talk about the economy. Using text analysis and regularized regressions, we find strong evidence for systematic communication rules that vary over time, with changes in the rule often being associated with changes in the economic environment. We also find that shifts in communication rules increase disagreement among professional forecasters and correlate with monetary policy surprise measures. Our method is general and can be applied to investigate systematic communication in a wide variety of settings.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18730
    Schlagworte: communication; expectations; monetary policy; NLP; text analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
    an overview and first evaluation
    Autor*in: Bańkowska, Katarzyna; Borlescu, Ana Maria; Charalambakis, Evangelos; Silva, António Dias da; Di Laurea, Davide; Dossche, Maarten; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Honkkila, Juha; Kennedy, Neale O.; Kenny, Geoff; Kolndrekaj, Aleksandra; Meyer, Justus; Rusinova, Desislava; Teppa, Federica; Törmälehto, Veli-Matti
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is an important new tool for analysing euro area household economic behaviour and expectations. This new survey covers a range of important topical areas including consumption and income, inflation and gross... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is an important new tool for analysing euro area household economic behaviour and expectations. This new survey covers a range of important topical areas including consumption and income, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the labour market, housing market activity and house prices, and consumer finance and credit access. The CES, which was launched as a pilot in January 2020, is a mixed frequency modular survey, which is conducted online. The survey structure and centralised data collection ensures the collection of harmonised quantitative and qualitative euro area information in a timely manner that facilitates direct cross-country comparisons. During the pilot phase, it was conducted for the six largest euro area countries and contained 10,000 individual respondents. In the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the CES has been used to gather useful information on the impact of the crisis on the household sector and the effectiveness of policy measures to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. The CES also collects information on the public’s overall trust in the ECB, their knowledge about its objectives and the channels through which they learn about its monetary policy and other central bank-related topics. This paper describes the key features of this new ECB survey – including its statistical properties – and offers a first evaluation of the results from the pilot phase. It also identifies a number of areas where the survey can be usefully developed further. Overall, the experience with the CES has been very positive, and the pilot survey is considered to have achieved its main objectives.

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289948418
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/262132
    Schriftenreihe: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 287 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: household surveys; expectations; consumer behaviour; micro data set,euro area
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (137 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Rationalität und Qualität von Wirtschaftsprognosen
    Autor*in: Scheier, Johannes
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen, Göttingen

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Beteiligt: Bizer, Kilian (Akademischer Betreuer); Spiwoks, Markus (Akademischer Betreuer); Dierkes, Stefan (Akademischer Betreuer)
    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11858/00-1735-0000-0022-5FE8-0
    Schlagworte: Prognose; Wirtschaft; Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung; Qualität; Erwartungsbildung; Rationale Erwartung; Prognosefehler; Informationseffizienz; Wirtschaft; Prognose; Prognoseverfahren; Qualitätsmanagement; Konjunkturtest; Sachwert; Bewertung; Rationale Erwartung; Risiko; Spieltheorie; Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung
    Weitere Schlagworte: (stw)Wirtschaftsprognose; (stw)Prognoseverfahren; (stw)Qualitätsmanagement; (stw)Frühindikator; (stw)Bewertung; (stw)Rationale Erwartung; (stw)Risiko; (stw)Spieltheorie; (stw)Experimentelle Ökonomik; volkswirtschaftliche Prognosen; Wirtschaftsprognosen; Konjunkturprognosen; Kapitalmarktprognose; Prognoseevaluation; Erwartungen; rationale Erwartungsbildung; Konsensprognosen; Informationseffizienz; Prognoserevisionen; Gegenwartsorientierte Verlaufsanpassung; Prognosegütemaße; Prognosequalität; Prognoseplanspiel; Unsicherheit; economic forecasting; business cycle forecasts; forecast quality; experimental planning game; information efficiency; consensus forecasts; early indicators; forecast evaluation; rational expectations; forecast rationality; expectations; forecast revisions; forecast measurement; uncertainty; Graue Literatur
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
    Bemerkung(en):

    Göttingen, Georg-August Universität, Diss., 2015
  15. The Castle of Otranto
    Autor*in: Walpole, Horace
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Strelbytskyy Multimedia Publishing, Vachendorf

  16. Die Historizität fiktionaler Erwartungen
    Autor*in: Beckert, Jens
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne

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    Sprache: Deutsch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/162117
    Schriftenreihe: MPIfG Discussion Paper ; 17/8
    Schlagworte: Erwartung; Geschichtlichkeit; Kapitalismus; Fiktion; Kreditmarkt; Erzähltechnik
    Weitere Schlagworte: Erwartungen; Ungewissheit; Kapitalismus; Zukunft; Narrative; Geschichte; expectations; uncertainty; capitalism; future; narratives; history
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  17. Agent based models, housing fluctuations and the role of heterogeneous expectations
    Autor*in: Li, Jinke; Meen, Geoffrey
    Erschienen: June 2016
    Verlag:  Department of Economics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / University of Reading, Department of Economics ; no. 2016, 126
    Schlagworte: Agent based models; heterogeneity; expectations; volatility
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Self-confidence, overconfidence and prenatal testosterone exposure
    evidence from the lab
    Autor*in: Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Univ. of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School, Glasgow

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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; 2014,02
    Schlagworte: 2D:4D; testosterone; neuroeconomics; expectations; overconfidence; self- confidence; goals
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (25 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. Nine views of the Phillips curve
    eight authentic and one inauthentic
    Autor*in: Forder, James
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Univ. of Oxford, Dep. of Economics, Oxford

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; 724
    Schlagworte: Phillips curve; expectations; Phillips curve myth
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([17] S.)
  20. Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation
    Autor*in: Guimarães, Rodrigo
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Bank of England ; 489
    Schlagworte: Interest rates; expectations; risk premium; dynamic term structure; robust; estimation
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (III, 52, 17 S.), graph. Darst.
  21. The transmission of monetary policy shocks
    Autor*in: Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  OFCE, Paris

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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Sciences Po OFCE working paper ; no 2017, 15 (2017/05/05)
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The transmission of monetary policy shocks
    Autor*in: Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
    Erschienen: April 2017
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 657
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Explaining the recent slump in investment
    the role of expected demand and uncertainty
    Autor*in: Bussière, Matthieu; Ferrara, Laurent; Milovich, Juliana Yael
    Erschienen: September 2015
    Verlag:  Banque de France, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Document de travail / Banque de France ; no 571
    Schlagworte: Business investment; aggregate demand; expectations; uncertainty; financial frictions; macroeconomic forecasts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Promises, expectations, and social cooperation
    Autor*in: Mischkowski, Dorothee; Stone, Rebecca; Stremitzer, Alexander
    Erschienen: 10/2016
    Verlag:  Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA

    Promising serves as an important commitment mechanism by operating on a potential cheater’s internal value system. We present experimental evidence on what motivates people to keep their promises. First, they feel that they are duty-bound to keep... mehr

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Promising serves as an important commitment mechanism by operating on a potential cheater’s internal value system. We present experimental evidence on what motivates people to keep their promises. First, they feel that they are duty-bound to keep their promises regardless of whether promisees expect them to (promising per se effect). Second, they care about not disappointing promisees' expectations, regardless of whether those expectations were induced by a promise (expectations per se effect). Third, they are even more motivated to avoid disappointing promisees' expectations when those expectations were induced by a promise (interaction effect). Clear evidence of some of these effects has eluded the prior literature due to limitations inherent to the experimental methods employed. We sidestep those difficulties by using a novel between-subject vignette design. Our results also shed light on how promising may contribute to the self-reinforcing creation of trust.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Harvard John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business ; no. 887
    Schlagworte: Cooperation; promises; expectations; trust; guilt aversion
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Unsurprising shocks
    information, premia, and the monetary transmission
    Autor*in: Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia
    Erschienen: November 2016
    Verlag:  Bank of England, [London]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 626
    Schlagworte: Monetary surprises; identification with external instruments; monetary policy; expectations; information asymmetries; event study; proxy SVAR
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen