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  1. Expectations, satisfaction, and utility from experience goods
    a field experiment in theaters
    Autor*in: Gneezy, Ayelet; Genîzî, Ûrî; Llull, Joan; Rey-Biel, Pedro
    Erschienen: November 30, 2016
    Verlag:  GSE, Graduate School of Economics, Barcelona

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Schriftenreihe: Barcelona GSE working paper series ; no 944
    Schlagworte: experience goods; pay-what-you-want; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Credit market Information feedback
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 15-15
    Schlagworte: bank franchise value; asset quality; credit demand; information; expectations
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (11 S.)
  3. Climate actions, market beliefs and monetary policy
    Autor*in: Annicchiarico, Barbara; Di Dio, Fabio; Diluiso, Francesca
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  CEIS Tor Vergata, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: CEIS Tor Vergata research paper series ; vol. 20, issue 2 = no. 535 (March 2022)
    Schlagworte: Climate policy; monetary policy; expectations; inflation; market sentiments; business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Finance, informal competition, and expectations
    a firm-level analysis
    Autor*in: Brancati, Emanuele; Di Maio, Michele; Rahman, Aminur
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper documents the link between finance and informal competition. Using longitudinal firm-level data, we show that formal firms that are more exposed to the competition of informal firms are less likely to apply for a bank loan. This result is... mehr

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    This paper documents the link between finance and informal competition. Using longitudinal firm-level data, we show that formal firms that are more exposed to the competition of informal firms are less likely to apply for a bank loan. This result is not due to sample selection, omitted variable bias, or reverse causality, and it is robust to different econometric specifications, including the use of an IV strategy. As for the mechanism explaining our result, we show that firms more exposed to informal competition have worse expectations on future sales growth, which in turn are associated with a lower probability of loan application. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence excluding supply-side mechanisms that may explain heterogeneities in firms' access to finance.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263656
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15440
    Schlagworte: finance; informality; competition; expectations; MENA countries
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten)
  5. From addition to multiplication
    the labour theory of value and the economic institutions of capitalism : part three: structure, super-structure and institutional change
    Autor*in: Battistini, Alberto
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Università di Siena, [Siena]

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    Schriftenreihe: Quaderni del Dipartimento di economia politica e statistica ; n. 886 (luglio 2022)
    Schlagworte: beliefs; expectations; inter-subjectivity; structural interdependence; property rights; selfevidence
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Forward guidance and expectation formation
    a narrative approach
    Autor*in: Sutherland, Christopher S.
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 1024
    Schlagworte: forward guidance; central bank communication; information effects; expectations; survey data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Terrorism, media coverage and education
    evidence from Al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya
    Autor*in: Alfano, Marco; Görlach, Joseph-Simon
    Erschienen: May 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine how terrorism alters the demand for education through perceived risks and returns by relating terrorist attacks to media signal coverage and schooling in Kenya. Exploiting geographical and temporal variation in wireless signal coverage and... mehr

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    We examine how terrorism alters the demand for education through perceived risks and returns by relating terrorist attacks to media signal coverage and schooling in Kenya. Exploiting geographical and temporal variation in wireless signal coverage and attacks, we establish that media access reinforces negative effects of terrorism on schooling. These effects are confirmed when we instrument both media signal and the incidence of attacks. For households with media access, we also find a significant relation between media content and schooling and a significant effect of attacks on self-reported fears and concerns. Based on these insights, we estimate a simple structural model where heterogeneous households experiencing terrorism form beliefs about risks and returns to education. We exploit the same quasi-experimental variation as in the reduced form analysis to identify how media change subjective expectations. The results show that households with media access significantly over-estimate fatality risks.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263514
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15298
    Schlagworte: terrorism; media; expectations; education
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in Covid times: evidence from UK survey data
    Autor*in: Albuquerque, Bruno; Green, Georgina
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  Bank of England, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 965
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; marginal propensity to consume; survey data; household behaviour; expectations; financial concerns; fiscal policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Temporary overpessimism: job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock
    Autor*in: Emmler, Julian; Fitzenberger, Bernd
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany after reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately after reunification with... mehr

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    Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany after reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately after reunification with respect to their job risk. Over time, job loss expectations fell and converged to West German levels, which was driven by a stabilizing economic environment and by an adaptation of the interpretation of economic signals with workers learning to distinguish individual risk from firm level risk. In fact, conditional on actual job loss risk, East German workers quickly caught up to West Germans regarding the accuracy of job loss expectations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232901
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14149
    Schlagworte: job loss; expectations; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The power of sentiment: irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics
    Autor*in: Rakovská, Zuzana; Ehrenbergerová, Dominika; Hodula, Martin
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Czech National Bank, Economic Research Department, Praha

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Czech National Bank ; 2020, 10
    Schlagworte: Consumer loans; consumer survey; expectations; optimism; sentiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Temporary overpessimism: job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock
    Autor*in: Emmler, Julian; Fitzenberger, Bernd
    Erschienen: 9 April 2021
    Verlag:  Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, Nürnberg

    Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany aftfter reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately aftfter reunification with... mehr

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    Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany aftfter reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately aftfter reunification with respect to their job risk. Over time, job loss expectations fell and converged to West German levels, which was driven by a stabilizing economic environment and by an adaptation of the interpretation of economic signals with workers learning to distinguish individual risk from firm level risk. In fact, conditional on actual job loss risk, East German workers quickly caught up to West Germans regarding the accuracy of job loss expectations. In den Jahren nach den Wiedervereinigung mit Westdeutschland erwartete ein großer Anteil der Ostdeutschen Arbeitnehmer ihren Job zu verlieren. Zwar führte der Wiedervereinigungsschock zu einem substantiell erhöhten Risiko des Arbeitsplatzverlusts in Ost- im Vergleich zu Westdeutschland, die Erwartungen der Ostdeutschen Arbeitnehmer waren jedoch noch negativer und somit zu pessimistisch. Im Laufe der Zeit fiel jedoch die Zahl der erwarteten Arbeitsplatzverluste und konvergierte zum Westdeutschen Niveau, getrieben zum einen durch die sich stabilisierende wirtschaftliche Lage in Ostdeutschland und zumanderen durch einen Lernprozess der Arbeiter im Bezug auf die Trennung von individuellem und firmenspezifischen Risiko. Bedingt auf das wirkliche Risiko den Job zu verlieren schlossen Ostdeutsche Arbeitnehmer schnell zu Westdeutschen Arbeitnehmern auf.

     
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    hdl: 10419/234300
    Schriftenreihe: IAB-discussion paper ; 2021, 5
    Schlagworte: job loss; expectations; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The dynamics of return migration, human capital accumulation, and wage assimilation
    Autor*in: Adda, Jérôme; Dustmann, Christian; Görlach, Joseph-Simon
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants' careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis... mehr

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    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants' careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants' career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies which initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants' career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236364
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14333
    Schlagworte: Internationale Migration; Arbeitsmarkt; Berufslaufbahn; Karriere; Datenerhebung; Modell; international migration; human capital; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The dynamics of return migration, human capital accumulation, and wage assimilation
    Autor*in: Adda, Jérôme; Dustmann, Christian; Görlach, Joseph-Simon
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants' careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis... mehr

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    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model where individuals differ in ability and location preference to evaluate the mechanisms that affect the evolution of immigrants' careers in conjunction with their re-migration plans. Our analysis highlights a novel form of selective return migration where those who plan to stay longer invest more into skill acquisition, with important implications for the assessment of immigrants' career paths and the estimation of their earnings profiles. Our study also explains the willingness of immigrants to accept jobs at wages that seem unacceptable to natives. Finally, our model provides important insight for the design of migration policies, showing that policies which initially restrict residence or condition residence on achievement shape not only immigrants’ career profiles through their impact on human capital investment but also determine the selection of arrivals and leavers.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235421
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9051 (2021)
    Schlagworte: international migration; human capital; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 92 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Consumers' updating, policy shocks and public debt
    an empirical assessment of state dependencies
    Autor*in: Geiger, Martin; Zachariadis, Marios
    Erschienen: March 25, 2021
    Verlag:  Liechtenstein-Institut, Bendern

    In dieser Studie werden die Effekte von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf Konsumentenerwartungen in Szenarien von hohem und niedrigem öffentlichen Schuldenstand empirisch untersucht. In Reaktion auf einen Anstieg der Staatsausgaben steigen Konsumpläne bei... mehr

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    In dieser Studie werden die Effekte von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf Konsumentenerwartungen in Szenarien von hohem und niedrigem öffentlichen Schuldenstand empirisch untersucht. In Reaktion auf einen Anstieg der Staatsausgaben steigen Konsumpläne bei niedrigem, fallen jedoch bei hohem Schuldenstand. Insgesamt haben höhere Staatsausgaben einen adversen Effekt auf Erwartungen, wenn Staatsschulden bereits hoch sind. Auch in Hinblick auf Geldpolitik können zustandsabhängige Effekte beobachtet werden. Ein Zinsanstieg wirkt sich negativ auf Erwartungen aus, wenn Staatsschulden hoch sind, nicht aber wenn diese niedrig sind. Die Reaktion von Konsumenten auf Geld- und Fiskalpolitik legt nahe, dass höhere Staatsschulden Erwägungen über ihre Rückzahlung befördern, die sich auf die Erwartungsbildung auswirken.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers Liechtenstein Institute ; no. 69 (2021)
    Schlagworte: expectations; rational inattention; Ricardian; fiscal theory of the price level
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 86 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    This paper was originally titled "Assessing Expectations as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal and State-Dependent Phenomenon"
  15. Do well managed firms make better forecasts?
    Autor*in: Bloom, Nicholas; Kawakubo, Takafumi; Meng, Charlotte; Mizen, Paul; Riley, Rebecca R.; Senga, Tatsuro; Van Reenen, John
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1821 (January 2022)
    Schlagworte: management; productivity; expectations; forecasting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. What does machine learning say about the drivers of inflation?
    Autor*in: Kohlscheen, Emanuel
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 980 (November 2021)
    Schlagworte: expectations; forecast; inflation; machine learning; oil price; output gap; Phillips curve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Diverse policy committees can reach underrepresented groups
    Autor*in: D'Acunto, Francesco; Fuster, Andreas; Weber, Michael
    Erschienen: 17 September 2021
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP16563
    Schlagworte: expectations; monetary policy; diversity; trust; Federal Reserve
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 87 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The COVID-19 consumption game-changer
    evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey
    Autor*in: Hodbod, Alexander; Hommes, Cars H.; Huber, Stefanie J.; Salle, Isabelle
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer... mehr

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    Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may durably affect consumer preferences. We conducted a representative consumer survey in five European countries in summer 2020, after the release of the first wave's lockdown restrictions, and document the underlying reasons for households' reduction in consumption in five key sectors: tourism, hospitality, services, retail, and public transports. We identify a large confidence shock in the Southern European countries and a shift in consumer preferences in the Northern European countries, particularly among high-income earners. We conclude that the COVID-19 experience has altered consumer behavior and that long-term sectoral consumption shifts may occur.

     
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    hdl: 10419/248780
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version: 2021-10-17
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; TI 2021, 096
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; household behavior; consumption; expectations; experiences; consumer preferences; economic resilience; sectoral changes; zombification; fiscal policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Does political polarization affect economic expectations?
    evidence from three decades of cabinet shifts in Europe
    Autor*in: Guirola, Luis
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 2133
    Schlagworte: expectations; polarization; political partisanship; motivated beliefs
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Does information about current inflation affect expectations and decisions
    another look at Italian firms
    Autor*in: Rosolia, Alfonso
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1353 (October 2021)
    Schlagworte: expectations; experimental data; information; communication; learning
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Gravidez na adolescência: conciliação de vida familiar, estudo e trabalho dos jovens em Recife
    Autor*in: Costa, Joana Simões; Poloponsky, Katcha; Silva, Enid Rocha Andrade; Russo, Felipe Mendonça; Silva, Claudia
    Erschienen: dezembro de 2021
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    Based on quantitative and qualitative research conducted in Recife in 2018 among young people aged 15 to 24 years, this study analyzes and compares labor and schooling trajectories as well as expectations regarding qualification and professional life... mehr

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    Based on quantitative and qualitative research conducted in Recife in 2018 among young people aged 15 to 24 years, this study analyzes and compares labor and schooling trajectories as well as expectations regarding qualification and professional life in order to highlight possible differences for young people who experienced teenage pregnancy. Young people who have children between 15 and 19 years of age have more interruptions in school life, are more likely not to be working or studying, and are more pessimistic in their expectation of completing their desired schooling level. Qualitative research corroborates and deepens these results. Low schooling level, lack of professional experience, and the need to take care of their children were identified as barriers in finding a job. These young people also report feeling the abandonment of public policies that could help them to achieve their goals. The text ends by discussing public policies such as income transfer programs, actions to guarantee access to public day care centers, such as the reception rooms of the Projovem program, and sexual education and family planning campaigns.

     
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    Sprache: Portugiesisch
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    hdl: 10419/261032
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2717
    Schlagworte: teenage pregnancy; schooling trajectories; labor market; expectations; public policy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. R&D plans, expectations, and uncertainty: evidence from the COVID-19 shock in Italy
    Autor*in: Brancati, Emanuele
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper takes advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak to explore the determinants of firms' R&D choices around an exogenous shock. We make use of unique panel data on 7,800 Italian companies between January 2020 - right before the pandemic - and March... mehr

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    This paper takes advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak to explore the determinants of firms' R&D choices around an exogenous shock. We make use of unique panel data on 7,800 Italian companies between January 2020 - right before the pandemic - and March of the same year - amid lockdown policies. We then exploit the revision in firms' research plans within this short-time window to test the impact of deteriorating expectations and uncertainty on firms' R&D choices. Our results show a dramatic effect of firms' expectations about future market conditions. In this regard, internationalized and innovative companies, which were particularly suffering the onset of the crisis, display a significantly higher probability of discontinuing research plans. Beyond the role played by expectations, innovative characteristics already in place are found to critically shape firms' reactions to the general uncertainty. Two main patterns emerge from our analysis. On the one hand, there is a strong degree of persistence in R&D choices for a small set of innovators with substantial past expenditure in in-house research activities. On the other, the COVID-19 shock especially jeopardized R&D plans of firms that recently started new research programs or newly innovative companies. We interpret such results as evidence that preexisting sunk costs increase the persistence of R&D choices after uncertainty shocks.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250550
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14889
    Schlagworte: firms; R&D; expectations; uncertainty; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy
    Autor*in: Annicciarico, Barbara; Di Dio, Fabio; Dilusio, Francesca
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  European Commission, Ispra

    This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty... mehr

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    This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a climate policy, with a potential threat to the ability of central banks to maintain price stability. Market beliefs and behavioral agents increase the trade-offs inherent to the chosen mitigation tool, with a carbon tax entailing more emissions uncertainty than in a rational expectations model and a cap-and-trade scheme implying a more pronounced pressure on allowances prices and inflation. The impact on price stability is worsened by delays in the implementation of stringent climate policies, by the lack of confidence in the ability of central banks to keep inflation under control, and by the adoption of monetary rules tied to expectations rather than current macroeconomic conditions. Central banks can implement successful stabilization policies that reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate actions and support the greening process while staying within their mandate.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283076
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers in economics and finance ; 2022, 14
    Schlagworte: Monetary policy; climate policy; expectations; inflation; market sentiments; business cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Do women expect wage cuts for part-time work?
    Autor*in: Schrenker, Annekatrin
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    I quantify the perceived changes in hourly wage rates associated with working different hours on the same job for a representative sample of female workers. While part-time working women expect significant hourly wage gains from switching to... mehr

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    I quantify the perceived changes in hourly wage rates associated with working different hours on the same job for a representative sample of female workers. While part-time working women expect significant hourly wage gains from switching to full-time work - 7% on average - full-time workers expect no effect on current wages when switching to part-time, on average. Perceived pecuniary losses from part-time work are most pronounced among full-time working mothers and women in managerial jobs. Using density forecasts, I document a large uncertainty about the perceived pay gap that correlates with the probability to report extreme wage penalties, as well as with worker characteristics. Comparing beliefs with selectivity-corrected estimates of the objective part-time penalty further indicates that full-time workers on average underestimate part-time wage losses, whereas part-time workers tend to overestimate full-time wage gains.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266606
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 2024
    Schlagworte: expectations; female labor supply; part-time wage gap
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. The curious case of the rise in deflation expectations
    Autor*in: Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Somerville, Jason; Topa, Giorgio; Klaauw, Wilbert van der; Williams, John C.
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as inflation... mehr

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    We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as inflation continued to climb, medium- and longerterm inflation expectations unexpectedly fell and medium- and longer-term deflation expectations increased. We find that respondents with deflation expectations tend to expect prices to mean revert and are more optimistic about the economic outlook.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 1037 (October 2022)
    Schlagworte: inflation; deflation; expectations; consumer surveys
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen