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  1. Coherence without rationality at the ZLB
    Autor*in: Ascari, Guido; Mavroeidis, Sophocles; McClung, Nigel
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: DNB working paper ; no. 784 (July 2023)
    Schlagworte: incompleteness; incoherence; expectations; zero lower bound
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten)
  2. The inflation attention cycle
    updating the Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) up to February 2023 - a research note
    Autor*in: Müller, Henrik; Schmidt, Tobias; Rieger, Jonas; Hornig, Nico; Hufnagel, Lena Marie
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 2003/41298
    hdl: 10419/270752
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version 1.0
    Schriftenreihe: DoCMA working paper ; # 13 (March 2023)
    Schlagworte: Inflation; expectations; narratives; latent Dirichlet allocation; text mining; computational methods
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 8 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Labour market expectations and unemployment in Europe
    Autor*in: Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the... mehr

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    Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected by the European Commission over 444 months between January 1985 and October 2022 in an unbalanced country*month panel of just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals' fears of unemployment which predict subsequent changes in unemployment 12 months later in the presence of country fixed effects and lagged unemployment. We also use industrial firm's expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of what happens to unemployment three months later. Using our preferred model specification, we present out-of-sample predictions based on replications from 1,000 random samples. These track actual movements in unemployment rates closely over a period in which there were two major recessions and unemployment shifted by a factor of two.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272532
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15905
    Schlagworte: unemployment; fear; business sentiment; expectations; forecasting recession; COVID-19; supply shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Inflation perception and the formation of inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Schmidt, Torsten; Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; Schmidt, Tobias; Jentsch, Carsten
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen, Germany

    In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and... mehr

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    In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic trends, thereby providing new insights into the dynamics of inflation perception over time. Methodically, the IPI makes use of RollingLDA, a dynamic topic modeling approach refining the rather static original LDA to allow for changes in the model’s structure over time. We then use time series for the overall inflation perception indicator as well as for specific topics to analyze time-varying correlations with time series for inflation expectations of firms and households. Our results reveal that the link between reporting about inflation and changes in inflation expectations is time-dependent. During periods of intensive newspaper coverage of inflation developments, a correlation with inflation expectations emerges that does not exist at other times. Such correlations are evident after the introduction of the euro, during the financial crisis and during the recent energy price shock. In diesem Papier stellen wir einen neuen Indikator zur Messung der Inflationswahrnehmung in den Medien vor. Unser Inflationswahrnehmungsindikator (IPI) für Deutschland basiert auf einem Korpus von drei Millionen Artikeln, die zwischen Januar 2001 und November 2022 in großen Tageszeitungen veröffentlicht wurden. Er ist so konzipiert, thematische Trends zu erkennen und damit neue Einblicke in die Dynamik der Inflationswahrnehmung im Laufe der Zeit zu geben. Methodisch nutzt das IPI die RollingLDA, einen dynamischen Ansatz zur Themenmodellierung, der die eher statische ursprüngliche LDA verfeinert, um Veränderungen in der Struktur des Modells im Laufe der Zeit zu berücksichtigen. Anschließend werden Zeitreihen für den Gesamtindikator der Inflationswahrnehmung sowie für spezifische Themen verwendet, um zeitlich veränderliche Korrelationen mit Zeitreihen für Inflationserwartungen von Unternehmen und Haushalten zu analysieren. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen der Berichterstattung über die Inflation und den Veränderungen der Inflationserwartungen zeitabhängig ist. In Zeiten intensiver Zeitungsberichterstattung über die Inflationsentwicklung zeigt sich eine Korrelation mit den Inflationserwartungen, die zu anderen Zeiten nicht besteht. Solche Korrelationen sind nach der Einführung des Euro, während der Finanzkrise und während des jüngsten Energiepreisschocks zu beobachten.

     
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    ISBN: 9783969731918
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273551
    Schriftenreihe: Ruhr economic papers ; #1025
    Schlagworte: Inflation; perception; expectations; media; attention cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. How do managers form their expectations about working from home?
    survey experiments on the perception of productivity
    Autor*in: Erdsiek, Daniel
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    The recent shift towards working from home (WFH) has far-reaching implications for social and economic outcomes. While firms are gatekeepers for the ongoing diffusion of flexible work arrangements, there is little evidence on how firms decide to... mehr

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    The recent shift towards working from home (WFH) has far-reaching implications for social and economic outcomes. While firms are gatekeepers for the ongoing diffusion of flexible work arrangements, there is little evidence on how firms decide to offer WFH. We leverage two survey experiments among nearly 800 knowledge-intensive services firms in Germany to analyse whether managers’ beliefs about the productivity effects of WFH affect their adoption decisions. Exploiting exogenous variation in managers’ information set, we find that managers update their beliefs about the productivity effects of WFH when they receive information on workers’ self-assessed WFH productivity. In addition, the information treatment significantly increases managers’ willingness to adopt or intensify WFH policies. Combining our main survey experiment with two follow-up surveys, we find persistent information treatment effects on both managers’ beliefs about WFH productivity and firms’ expected WFH intensity after the Covid-19 pandemic. A complementary survey experiment confirms our results pointing to a causal relationship between managers’ beliefs about WFH productivity and the adoption of WFH practices. These findings have implications for potential policy measures targeting firms’ WFH adoption.

     
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    Beteiligt: Rost, Vincent (BeraterIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273468
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 018 (05/2023)
    Schlagworte: working from home; survey experiment; information provision; firm-level; managers; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Income risk, precautionary saving, and loss aversion
    an empirical test
    Autor*in: Ibanez, Marcela; Schneider, Sebastian O.
    Erschienen: June 2023
    Verlag:  Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn

    This paper empirically examines the behavioral precautionary saving hypothesis that uncertainty about future income triggers an increase in saving because of loss aversion. Guided by the theoretical model of Koszegi and Rabin (2009), we first extend... mehr

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    This paper empirically examines the behavioral precautionary saving hypothesis that uncertainty about future income triggers an increase in saving because of loss aversion. Guided by the theoretical model of Koszegi and Rabin (2009), we first extend their theoretical analysis to also consider the internal margin, i.e., the strength, of loss aversion, and then empirically study the relation between income risk, experimentally elicited loss aversion, and precautionary savings. We do so using a sample of 640 individuals from the low-income population of Bogotá, characterized by limited financial education and subject to substantial income risk. In line with the theoretical predictions, we find that an increase in income risk is associated with higher savings for loss-averse individuals, and that this increase in savings grows with the degree of loss aversion. An accompanying laboratory experiment confirms that an exogenous increase in income risk causally leads to this observed pattern. Thus, consistent with the theoretical predictions derived from the model of Koszegi and Rabin (2009), but in contrast to common assumptions, our findings establish that loss aversion is not necessarily an obstacle to saving, and thus identify new approaches of increasing saving among individuals with low financial education.

     
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    hdl: 21.11116/0000-000D-5CFF-E
    hdl: 10419/274064
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion papers of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods ; 2023, 6
    Schlagworte: Reference-dependent utility; expectations; consumption plans; precautionary savings; loss aversion; risk preferences; income risk; low income; Bogotá; experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 122 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Not all ECB meetings are created equal
    Autor*in: Kandemir, Sinem; Tillmann, Peter
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    Most meetings of the Governing Council of the ECB take place intra muros at the ECB's premises in Frankfurt. Some meetings, however, are held extra muros, i.e. outside Frankfurt, hosted by one of the national central banks. This paper uses... mehr

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    Most meetings of the Governing Council of the ECB take place intra muros at the ECB's premises in Frankfurt. Some meetings, however, are held extra muros, i.e. outside Frankfurt, hosted by one of the national central banks. This paper uses high-frequency surprises from meeting days to show that the standard deviation of surprises is higher when the ECB meets intra muros. This difference is mostly due to larger timing, forward guidance and QE surprises when meeting in Frankfurt. We show that the transmission of policy surprises to longer-term interest rates is significantly weaker when meeting extra muros. In addition, when the meeting takes place extra muros, the wording of the ECB communication during the press conference is significantly more similar to the preceding meeting. The results suggest that the important decisions are taken in Frankfurt and that the ECB avoids large changes to the policy path when meeting extra muros. The difference across meeting types has consequences for the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/278496
    Schriftenreihe: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2023, 12
    Schlagworte: monetary policy; expectations; central bank communication; monetary policy committee; text analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Home price expectations and spending
    evidence from a field experiment
    Autor*in: Chopra, Felix; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured in... mehr

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    How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the experiment we exogenously vary households' home price expectations by providing them with different expert forecasts. Homeowners do not adjust their spending in response to exogenously higher home price expectations, consistent with wealth effects and higher expected housing costs offsetting each other. However, renters reduce their spending in response to an increase in home price expectations. We provide evidence that the effects on renters operate through an increase in expected rental costs and higher expected costs of a future home that many renters intend to buy. Our evidence has implications for the role of asset price expectations in business cycle dynamics and consumption inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279199
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10450 (2023)
    Schlagworte: consumption; expectations; home prices; homeowner; information; renter
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Which beliefs? behavior-predictive beliefs are inconsistent with information-based beliefs§devidence from COVID-19
    Autor*in: Heffetz, Ori; Ishai, Guy
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality], [Jerusalem, Israel]

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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: October 26, 2021
    Schriftenreihe: [Discussion paper / The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality] ; [# 754 (April 2023)]
    Schlagworte: information; expectations; beliefs; risk perceptions; survey elicitation; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Die Zählung der Reihe wurde der Übersicht in einen später erschienenen Stück entnommen
  10. Deferred acceptance with news utility
    Autor*in: Dreyfuss, Bnaya; Glicksohn, Ofer; Heffetz, Ori; Romm, Assaf
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  [The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality], [Jerusalem, Israel]

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    Schriftenreihe: [Discussion paper / The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality] ; [# 756 (April 2023)]
    Schlagworte: market design; school choice; strategyproof; dominated strategies; expectations; beliefs; reference-dependent preferences; prospect theory; experiments
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 81 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Die Zählung der Reihe wurde der Übersicht in einen später erschienenen Stück entnommen
  11. Information campaigns and migration perceptions
    Autor*in: Florio, Erminia
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  CEIS Tor Vergata, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: CEIS Tor Vergata research paper series ; vol. 21, issue 5 = no. 564 (August 2023)
    Schlagworte: Migration intentions; information provision; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Huber, Stefanie J.; Minina, Daria; Schmidt, Tobias
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    This paper documents a strong relationship between households’ perceptions about inflation over the past 12 months and households’ short- and long-term expectations about future inflation. This relationship is strong during periods of high-inflation... mehr

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    This paper documents a strong relationship between households’ perceptions about inflation over the past 12 months and households’ short- and long-term expectations about future inflation. This relationship is strong during periods of high-inflation but even stronger during low-inflation periods. We establish a causal relationship by implementing a randomized information provision experiment in a large and representative survey to generate an exogenous variation in inflation perceptions. Our results show that household perceptions about past inflation drive their expectations about future inflation rates. The strength of the pass-through from perceptions to expectations varies across socioeconomic groups. We identify two critical moderating factors for this heterogeneity; differences in individual uncertainty about future inflation and information acquisition. Further, we show that the large majority of households rely on their shopping experience when forming their perceptions about past inflation and pay particular attention to food and fuel prices. The shopping experience affects inflation expectations indirectly - through perceptions.

     
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    ISBN: 9783957299482
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    hdl: 10419/273729
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Version: June 19, 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 17
    Schlagworte: inflation dynamics; expectations; perceptions; uncertainty; household finance; monetary policy; randomized control trial
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Expectations and the stability of stock-flow consistent models
    Autor*in: Meijers, Huub; Muysken, Joan; Piccillo, Giulia
    Erschienen: 22 June 2023
    Verlag:  Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT), Maastricht, The Netherlands

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / United Nations University, UNU-MERIT ; #2023, 024
    Schlagworte: expectations; financialisation; wealth accumulation; stock-flow consistent modelling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten)
  14. Global house prices since 1950
    Autor*in: Mumtaz, Haroon; Šustek, Roman
    Erschienen: February 14, 2023
    Verlag:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

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    Schriftenreihe: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2023, 07]
    Schlagworte: House prices; asset pricing; expectations; fundamentals; demographics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten)
  15. What people believe about monetary finance and what we can('t) do about it
    evidence from a large-scale, multi-country survey experiment
    Autor*in: Hommes, Cars H.; Pinter, Julien; Salle, Isabelle
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We conduct an information-provision experiment within a large-scale household survey on public finance in France, The Netherlands and Italy. We elicit prior opinions via open-ended questions and introduce a measure of macroeconomic policy literacy. A... mehr

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    We conduct an information-provision experiment within a large-scale household survey on public finance in France, The Netherlands and Italy. We elicit prior opinions via open-ended questions and introduce a measure of macroeconomic policy literacy. A central bank (CB) educational blogpost explaining the mechanics of CB money preceded by a short video clip on public finance can persistently induce less support for monetary-financed proposals and more for fiscal discipline and CB independence, no matter the respondents' level of policy literacy. However, prior beliefs matter and contradictory information may be polarizing. Additional analysis of our data shows that information affects the respondents' views by shifting their inflation and tax expectations associated to these policies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279325
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10574 (2023)
    Schlagworte: large-scale household survey; information-provision experiment; RCT; central bank communication; expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 98 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Matching frictions and distorted beliefs
    evidence from a job fair experiment
    Autor*in: Abebe, Girum; Caria, Stefano A.; Fafchamps, Marcel; Falco, Paolo; Franklin, Simon; Quinn, Simon; Shilpi, Forhad Jahan
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, London

    We evaluate the impacts of a randomized job-fair intervention in which jobseekers and employers can meet at low cost. The intervention generates few hires, but it lowers participants' expectations and causes both firms and workers to invest more in... mehr

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    We evaluate the impacts of a randomized job-fair intervention in which jobseekers and employers can meet at low cost. The intervention generates few hires, but it lowers participants' expectations and causes both firms and workers to invest more in search as predicted by a theoretical model; this improves employment outcomes for less educated jobseekers. Through a unique two-sided belief-elicitation survey, we confirm that firms and jobseekers have over-optimistic expectations about the market. This suggests that, beyond slowing down matching, search frictions have a second understudied cost: they entrench inaccurate beliefs, further distorting search strategies and labour-market outcomes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284308
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London ; no. 958 (June 2023)
    Schlagworte: job-search strategy; recruitment; matching; expectations; beliefs; reservation wage; youth unemployment; Ethiopia
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  17. Coherence without rationality at the ZLB
    Autor*in: Ascari, Guido; Mavroeidis, Sophocles; McClung, Nigel
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Università di Pavia, Department of Economics and Management, Pavia

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    Schriftenreihe: DEM working paper series ; # 212 (07-23)
    Schlagworte: incompleteness; incoherence; expectations; zero lower bound
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  18. Predicting re-employment
    machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers
    Autor*in: Berg, Gerard J. van den; Kunaschk, Max; Lang, Julia; Stephan, Gesine; Uhlendorff, Arne
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of... mehr

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    Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they expected RE6. Third, random-forest machine learning methods are trained on administrative data on the full inflow, to predict individual RE6. We compare the predictive performance of these measures and consider whether combinations improve this performance. We show that self-reported and caseworker assessments sometimes contain information not captured by the machine learning algorithm.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16426
    Schlagworte: unemployment; expectations; prediction; random forest; unemployment insurance; information
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  19. Experience effects in economics lessons from past and current crises
    Autor*in: Malmendier, Ulrike
    Erschienen: 2023
    Verlag:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

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    Schriftenreihe: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 37 (2023, January)
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Wirkungsanalyse; Verhalten; Entscheidung; Erwartungsbildung; Entscheidungstheorie; Verhaltensökonomik; lived-experience; experience effects; pandemics; expectations; beliefs
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  20. Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy
    evidence from a survey experiment
    Autor*in: Bucher-Koenen, Tabea; Fessler, Pirmin; Silgoner, Maria Antoinette
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively)... mehr

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    We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively) related to financial resilience. Financial literacy and households’ financial resilience are positively related. Based on a randomized survey experiment, we investigate the role of over-optimism when evaluating the potential impact of future events on households’ financial situation. Households are asked to assess specific risks for their own household (treatment) or for a household with similar characteristics (control). On average, households assign a lower probability to shocks that negatively affect personal finances if asked for their own household compared to a similar household. We do not find the reverse effect for positive shocks. We find a negative correlation between over-optimism and financial literacy, indicating that financial literacy is relevant to both, financial behavior and the ability to assess financial shocks.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: 21 December 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 074 (12/2023)
    Schlagworte: financial fragility; expectations; risk assessment; financial behavior; over-optimism
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  21. Out of the ELB
    expected ECB policy rates and the Taylor Rule
    Autor*in: Bernardini, Marco; Lin, Alessandro
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 815 (October 2023)
    Schlagworte: monetary policy rules; expectations; ECB’s survey of monetary analysts; effectivelower bound
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  22. Great expectations
    a tale of two transitions
    Autor*in: Girardi, Daniele; Veneziani, Roberto; Wengle, Susanne
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, London

    Over a quarter of the world's population lives in economies that have undertaken transitions from central planning to market economies. These transitions entail far-reaching and complex changes in social, economic and political institutions and have... mehr

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    Over a quarter of the world's population lives in economies that have undertaken transitions from central planning to market economies. These transitions entail far-reaching and complex changes in social, economic and political institutions and have had widely divergent outcomes. Important strands of literature have emphasised the strategic complementarities that characterise the transition process in both the economic and political realms. Contrary to a widespread assumption, market-supporting institutions do not necessarily arise when assets are privatised in a highly unstable and uncertain environment; in fact, multiple equilibria emerge and expectations may play a key role in equilibrium selection. In this paper, we survey the vast empirical literature on transition economies in order to provide evidence on the correlation between expectations at the beginning of transition and success of the transition process. We provide the first comprehensive survey of the literature on agents' subjective perceptions of transitions' paths.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London ; no. 968 (November 2023)
    Schlagworte: Transition; expectations; multiple equilibria; property rights
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  23. Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
    Autor*in: Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss... mehr

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    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and point to directions for future research. Our literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the ZEW Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 062 (12/2023)
    Schlagworte: disagreement; expectations; forecasts; rationality; survey data
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  24. Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium
    Autor*in: Perico Ortiz, Daniel
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics, [Nürnberg]

    This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in the inflation-protected securities market. We employ a large corpus of news headlines from top U.S. newspapers and market data on... mehr

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    This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in the inflation-protected securities market. We employ a large corpus of news headlines from top U.S. newspapers and market data on the U.S. yield curve and inflation-protected securities. Our results indicate that news coverage, particularly regarding specific topics, exerts a significant influence on inflation compensation, expectations, and risk premiums. We observe that the impact of news diminishes as the maturity increases and varies across different news topics. This study contributes to the understanding of media influence on financial markets, specifically in shaping inflation expectations.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: FAU discussion papers in economics ; no. 2023, 05
    Schlagworte: Inflation; expectations; risk premium; newspapers; term structure
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  25. Were COVID and the Great Recession well-being reducing?
    Autor*in: Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex
    Erschienen: July 2023
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using micro-data on six surveys - the Gallup World Poll 2005-2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993-2022, Eurobarometer 1991-2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020-2022, the European Social Survey 2002-2020 and the... mehr

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    Using micro-data on six surveys - the Gallup World Poll 2005-2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993-2022, Eurobarometer 1991-2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020-2022, the European Social Survey 2002-2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018-2023 - we show individuals' reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe did decline in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020-2021 on most measures and on four bordering countries to Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission's Business and Consumer Surveys on people's expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country, all of which dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms' expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation's Humasn Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade or so reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279053
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16355
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Wirtschaftskrise; Wirkungsanalyse; Lebensqualität; Lebensstandard; Zufriedenheit; Entwicklungsindikator; Sozialer Indikator; Welt; Europa; subjective wellbeing; life satisfaction; expectations; Human Development Index; Great Recession; COVID-19
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