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  1. Successful transitions from public to private-sector led growth
    lessons for Benin
    Autor*in: Diallo, Aissatou
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, like Benin, have scaled up public investment during the last decade. Such a strategy contributed to the improvement of infrastructure, but also to a build-up of debt vulnerabilities. Looking forward, the... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, like Benin, have scaled up public investment during the last decade. Such a strategy contributed to the improvement of infrastructure, but also to a build-up of debt vulnerabilities. Looking forward, the planned fiscal consolidation will result in some restraint of public spending, and, in particular, public investment. In this context, maintaining or even raising the region's economic growth will require an offset by the private sector. The analysis draws lessons from countries that have successfully transitioned from public investment to private investment-led growth using a global sample starting in the mid-1980s. These lessons highlight policies that have been crucial in fostering a rebound of private investment in the wake of a contraction of public investment. The analytical framework proposed by Hausman, Rodrik and Velasco (2005) is used to identify and classify such policies. Finally, the paper analyses how the identified policies could help Benin achieving a smooth transition from public to private sector-led growth

     
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  2. Macrofinancial causes of optimism in growth forecasts
    Autor*in: Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Marzluf, José
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong... mehr

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    We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy's degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF's forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781616356392
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 275
    Schlagworte: Macroeconomic forecasting; Financial markets and the macroeconomy; Credit growth; Financial Markets and The Macroeconomy; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; International Finance Forecasting and Simulation; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; Macroeconomic Forecasting; Macroeconomics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A primer for unit root testing
    Autor*in: Patterson, Kerry D.
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke [u.a.]

    This book gives an authoritative overview of the literature on non-stationarity, integration and unit roots, providing direction and guidance. It also provides detailed examples to show how the techniques can be applied in practical situations and... mehr

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    Standort:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    This book gives an authoritative overview of the literature on non-stationarity, integration and unit roots, providing direction and guidance. It also provides detailed examples to show how the techniques can be applied in practical situations and the pitfalls to avoid. This book gives an authoritative overview of the literature on non-stationarity, integration and unit roots, providing direction and guidance. It also provides detailed examples to show how the techniques can be applied in practical situations and the pitfalls to avoid

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 1282910175; 9780230248458; 9781403902047; 9781403902054; 9781282910171
    Weitere Identifier:
    RVK Klassifikation: QH 320 ; QH 237
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 1. publ.
    Schriftenreihe: Palgrave texts in econometrics
    Schlagworte: Econometrics; Economic theory; Statistics; Macroeconomics; Statistics; Economic theory; Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Economics; Econometrics; Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (xxiv, 277 p)
    Bemerkung(en):

    Includes bibliographical references and indexes

    Cover; Contents; List of Tables; List of Figures; Symbols and Abbreviations; Preface; 1 An Introduction to Probability and Random Variables; 2 Time Series Concepts; 3 Dependence and Related Concepts; 4 Concepts of Convergence; 5 An Introduction to Random Walks; 6 Brownian Motion: Basic Concepts; 7 Brownian Motion: Differentiation and Integration; 8 Some Examples of Unit Root Tests; Appendix: Response functions for DF tests τ and ψ; Glossary; References; Author Index; Subject Index

    Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
  4. Global financial meltdown
    how we can avoid the next economic crisis
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke [u.a.]

    In easy to understand terms and journalistic style, Read describes the reasons for global financial unrest arising from the sub-prime mortgage crisis and economic meltdowns. He walks the reader through a number of topics in economics and connects... mehr

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    In easy to understand terms and journalistic style, Read describes the reasons for global financial unrest arising from the sub-prime mortgage crisis and economic meltdowns. He walks the reader through a number of topics in economics and connects these topics to real world financial problems concluding with recommendations for the future In easy to understand terms and journalistic style, Read describes the reasons for global financial unrest arising from the sub-prime mortgage crisis and economic meltdowns. He walks the reader through a number of topics in economics and connects these topics to real world financial problems concluding with recommendations for the future

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 0230222188; 9780230222182
    Weitere Identifier:
    RVK Klassifikation: QD 000 ; QK 000 ; QL 200 ; QM 000 ; QR 300
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 1. publ.
    Schlagworte: Finance; Accounting; Bookkeeping; Business; Macroeconomics
    Umfang: X, 252 S., graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Includes bibliographical references (p. 245-248) and index

    SECTION I: EVOLUTION OF THE MODERN ECONOMIC SYSTEMSECTION II: CREATION OF THE CONSUMER-INVESTOR -- SECTION III: AN EMERGING NEW WORLD -- SECTION IV: BANKS AND CENTRAL BANKING -- SECTION V: FINANCIAL FAILURES -- SECTION VI: POLITICS AND PERCEPTIONS.

    Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
  5. Euro crash
    the implications of monetary failure in Europe
    Autor*in: Brown, Brendan
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, Hants [u.a.]

    Literaturverz. S. 203 - 205 This sequel to the author's earlier well-received Euro On Trial, shows how European Monetary Union became a main engine of the global credit bubble and puts forward a set of remedies which would reduce the danger of... mehr

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    Literaturverz. S. 203 - 205 This sequel to the author's earlier well-received Euro On Trial, shows how European Monetary Union became a main engine of the global credit bubble and puts forward a set of remedies which would reduce the danger of further economic debacle emanating from serious flaws in the present policy-making framework of the European Central Bank

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9780230274921
    Weitere Identifier:
    RVK Klassifikation: QK 900 ; QM 333
    Auflage/Ausgabe: 1. publ.
    Schlagworte: Finance; Banks and banking; Macroeconomics; Economic policy; Finance; Banks and banking; Macroeconomics; Economic policy; Economics; Economic Policy; Finance, general; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics; Banking
    Umfang: VIII, 212 S.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Description based upon print version of record

    Cover; Contents; Acknowledgements; 1 Euro Indictment; 2 Origins of the Euro-Bubble; 3 The Bursting of the Bubble; 4 The Trial; 5 What Remedies?; Bibliography; Index;
  6. Economic Instruments of Security Policy
    Influencing Choices of Leaders
    Autor*in: Shiffman, Gary M.
    Erschienen: 2006
    Verlag:  Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke [England]

    This book examines the economic policies available to a head of state and addresses how best to measure the success of these tools. It surveys policies currently used as well as those that may not be appreciated for their national security... mehr

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    This book examines the economic policies available to a head of state and addresses how best to measure the success of these tools. It surveys policies currently used as well as those that may not be appreciated for their national security application, and examines case studies to provide a way forward in tackling the war on terrorism

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9780230505377
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schlagworte: Political science; Public policy; International relations; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics; International economics
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (ix, 193 p), ill
  7. Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in Mercosur
    Autor*in: Fanelli, José María
    Erschienen: 2007
    Verlag:  United Nations, New York, NY [u.a.]

    Standort:
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    Weitere Identifier:
    UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/2007/4
    Schriftenreihe: G-24 discussion paper series ; 46
    United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik; Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunkturzusammenhang; Mercosur-Staaten; Macroeconomics
    Umfang: IX, 29 S., graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 26 - 27
  8. Essays on empirical macroeconomics
    Autor*in: Jansson, Per
    Erschienen: 1994
    Verlag:  Dep. of Economics, Uppsala Univ., Uppsala

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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Dissertation
    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 9187268264
    RVK Klassifikation: QC 300 ; QG 440 ; QF 044
    Schriftenreihe: Economic studies / Nationalekonomiska Institutionen <Uppsala> ; 20
    Schlagworte: Makroökonomik; Theorie
    Weitere Schlagworte: Array; Array; Array; Array; Array; Monte Carlo method
    Umfang: III, 146 S, graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Enth. Zeitschriftenaufsätze

    Zugl.: Uppsala, Univ., Diss. : 1994

    Enth. 5 Beitr.
  9. Mitigating climate change
    growth-friendly policies to achieve net zero emissions by 2050
    Autor*in: Jaumotte, Florence; Liu, Weifeng; McKibbin, Warwick J.
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing... mehr

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    Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005)

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513592978
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 195
    Schlagworte: Climate Change; Net-Zero Emissions; Green Infrastructure; Macroeconomics; DSGE; CGE; G-Cubed; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Large Data Sets; Model Construction and Estimation; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Quantitative Policy Modeling
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico
    volume 2
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago

    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice... mehr

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    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice rather than an obligation. This is an joined up response by the United Nations system, which seeks to generate synergies and coordinate actions with the countries at the centre and the support of subregional integration institutions. Foreword .-- 1. Economic development pillar. A. Enabling infrastructure development programme. B. Trade promotion and regional integration programme. C. Productive development programme. D. Territorial development programme. E. Macroeconomics for development programme .-- 2. Social well-being pillar. A. Social and labour inclusion programme. B. Life-skills programme. C. Comprehensive child development programme. D. Lifelong health programme. E. Violence prevention and culture of peace programme .-- 3. Environmental sustainability, climate change and adaptation, and disaster risk reduction pillar. A. Generation of knowledge, data and tools for adaptation to climate change and disaster risks programme. B. Programme for strengthened resilience to prevent disaster-driven displacement. C. Climate change and nature-based solutions programme .-- 4. Pillar for the integral management of the migration cycle. A. Comprehensive national response programme. B. Regional programmes.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/47251
    Übergeordneter Titel:
    Schriftenreihe: United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: Economic Growth; Inclusive Development; Infrastructure; International Migration; International Trade; Programme And Policy Evaluation; Public Policies; Regional Integration; Structural Change; Territorial Development; Economic Development; Social Development; Sustainable Development; Development Plans; Development Policy; Equality; Physical Infrastructure; Transport Infrastructure; Energy Resources; Foreign Trade; Trade Facilitation; Economic Integration; Industrial Development; Productivity; Value; Regional Development; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Social Welfare; Gender Equality; Social Security; Employment; Education; Child Development; Health; Violence; Social Problems; Human Rights; Justice; Environment; Climate Change; Natural Disasters; Migration; Migration Policy; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO SOCIAL; DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE; PLANES DE DESARROLLO; POLITICA DE DESARROLLO; IGUALDAD; INFRAESTRUCTURA FISICA; INFRAESTRUCTURA DEL TRANSPORTE; RECURSOS ENERGETICOS; COMERCIO EXTERIOR; FACILITACION DEL COMERCIO; INTEGRACION ECONOMICA; DESARROLLO REGIONAL; DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL; PRODUCTIVIDAD; VALOR; MACROECONOMIA; POLITICA FISCAL; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; IGUALDAD DE GENERO; SEGURIDAD SOCIAL; EMPLEO; EDUCACION; DESARROLLO DEL NIÑO; SALUD; VIOLENCIA; PROBLEMAS SOCIALES; DERECHOS HUMANOS; JUSTICIA; MEDIO AMBIENTE; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; DESASTRES NATURALES; MIGRACION; POLITICA MIGRATORIA; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT PLANS; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; EQUALITY; PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE; ENERGY RESOURCES; FOREIGN TRADE; TRADE FACILITATION; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; VALUE; REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT; MACROECONOMICS; FISCAL POLICY; SOCIAL WELFARE; GENDER EQUALITY; SOCIAL SECURITY; EMPLOYMENT; EDUCATION; CHILD DEVELOPMENT; HEALTH; VIOLENCE; SOCIAL PROBLEMS; HUMAN RIGHTS; JUSTICE; ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; NATURAL DISASTERS; MIGRATION; MIGRATION POLICY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 640 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Comprehensive development plan for El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and South-Southeast Mexico
    volume 1
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago

    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice... mehr

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    The Comprehensive Development Plan aims to create a sustainable development space and generate opportunities to improve the quality of life of the people of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and south-southeast Mexico, thus making migration a choice rather than an obligation. This is an joined up response by the United Nations system, which seeks to generate synergies and coordinate actions with the countries at the centre and the support of subregional integration institutions. Foreword .-- I. Priority areas for promoting development in northern Central America andsouth-southeast Mexico .-- II. A commitment to development .-- III. Policy recommendations .-- IV. Comprehensive development plan: a strategic proposal .-- V. Country prioritization process. A. El Salvador. B. Guatemala. C. Honduras. D. México.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/47247
    Übergeordneter Titel:
    Schriftenreihe: United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: Infrastructure; International Migration; International Trade; Programme And Policy Evaluation; Public Policies; Regional Integration; Structural Change; Sustainable Development; Territorial Development; Economic Growth; Gender Equality; Inclusive Development; Economic Development; Social Development; Development Plans; Development Policy; Equality; Physical Infrastructure; Transport Infrastructure; Energy Resources; Foreign Trade; Trade Facilitation; Economic Integration; Industrial Development; Productivity; Value; Regional Development; Macroeconomics; Fiscal Policy; Social Welfare; Social Security; Employment; Education; Child Development; Health; Violence; Social Problems; Human Rights; Justice; Environment; Climate Change; Natural Disasters; Migration; Migration Policy; DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; DESARROLLO SOCIAL; DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE; PLANES DE DESARROLLO; POLITICA DE DESARROLLO; IGUALDAD; INFRAESTRUCTURA FISICA; INFRAESTRUCTURA DEL TRANSPORTE; RECURSOS ENERGETICOS; COMERCIO EXTERIOR; FACILITACION DEL COMERCIO; INTEGRACION ECONOMICA; DESARROLLO INDUSTRIAL; PRODUCTIVIDAD; VALOR; DESARROLLO REGIONAL; MACROECONOMIA; POLITICA FISCAL; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; IGUALDAD DE GENERO; SEGURIDAD SOCIAL; EMPLEO; EDUCACION; DESARROLLO DEL NIÑO; SALUD; VIOLENCIA; PROBLEMAS SOCIALES; DERECHOS HUMANOS; JUSTICIA; MEDIO AMBIENTE; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; DESASTRES NATURALES; MIGRACION; POLITICA MIGRATORIA; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT PLANS; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; EQUALITY; PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE; ENERGY RESOURCES; FOREIGN TRADE; TRADE FACILITATION; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT; PRODUCTIVITY; VALUE; REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT; MACROECONOMICS; FISCAL POLICY; SOCIAL WELFARE; GENDER EQUALITY; SOCIAL SECURITY; EMPLOYMENT; EDUCATION; CHILD DEVELOPMENT; HEALTH; VIOLENCE; SOCIAL PROBLEMS; HUMAN RIGHTS; JUSTICE; ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; NATURAL DISASTERS; MIGRATION; MIGRATION POLICY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 240 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. A quantitative theory of the HIV epidemic
    education, risky sex and asymmetric learning
    Autor*in: Alemán, Christian; Iorio, Daniela; Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül
    Erschienen: 04 January 2024
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    We explore learning about HIV infection odds from risky sex as a new mechanism explaining the Sub-Saharan Africa HIV epidemic. Our novel empirical evidence reveals a U-shaped relationship between education and being HIV positive across epidemic... mehr

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    We explore learning about HIV infection odds from risky sex as a new mechanism explaining the Sub-Saharan Africa HIV epidemic. Our novel empirical evidence reveals a U-shaped relationship between education and being HIV positive across epidemic stages, which prompts the idea of asymmetric learning: more educated individuals potentially learn faster and update their (latent) beliefs about infection odds more accurately than less educated individuals, inducing earlier sexual behavioral change among the more educated. Our nonstationary model incorporates three HIV epidemic stages, chronologically: a myopic stage where agents are unaware of how risky sex causes infections, a learning stage where agents update beliefs on infection odds, and an ARV stage reflecting treatment introduction. Anchored in the micro evidence---explaining the HIV-education gradient---we find that our learning mechanism is powerful: a 5-year earlier learning reduces new AIDS deaths by almost 45%, and a 10-year earlier learning results in a 60% drop.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18733
    Schlagworte: Quantitative; Macroeconomics; Equilibrium; HIV; Epidemic; Stages; Risky Sex; Asymmetric Learning
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten)
  13. Who bore the brunt of the pandemic in Europe?
    shifting private stress to the public sector
    Autor*in: Arena, Marco; Chen, Ruo; Cuevas, Alfredo; Foda, Karim; Gracia, Borja; Liu, Estelle Xue; Pienkowski, Alex; Roehler, Christiane; Shi, Yu; Sun, Shituo; Weber, Sebastian; Xu, Xin
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, Publication Services, Washington, DC, U.S.A.

    In Europe, the severe human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic was compounded by the deepest fall in economic activity in modern history. Yet this huge decline in output did surprisingly little damage to the aggregate financial balance sheets of firms and... mehr

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    In Europe, the severe human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic was compounded by the deepest fall in economic activity in modern history. Yet this huge decline in output did surprisingly little damage to the aggregate financial balance sheets of firms and households. This paper discusses how unprecedented policy support transferred private sector income losses to the public sector's balance sheet and contrasts this experience to that of the global financial crisis

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Departmental paper / International Monetary Fund ; DP/2021, 015
    Schlagworte: Consumption; Saving; Wealth; Business Fluctuations; Business Fluctuations; Cycles; Macroeconomics; Saving; Wealth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times
    evidence from UK survey data
    Autor*in: Albuquerque, Bruno; Green, Georgina
    Erschienen: 2022 MAR
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer... mehr

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    We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of pound 500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted to vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households

     
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    ISBN: 9798400204555
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 47
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; Marginal propensity to consume; Survey data; Household behaviour; Expectations; Financial concerns; Fiscal policy; Consumer Economics; Fiscal Policy; Macroeconomics; Saving; Wealth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Consumption effects of mortgage payment holidays
    evidence during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Autor*in: Albuquerque, Bruno; Varadi, Alexandra
    Erschienen: 2022 FEB
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We use UK transaction-level data during the Covid-19 pandemic to study whether mortgage payment holidays (PH) can act as a mechanism for smoothing household consumption following negative aggregate shocks. Our results suggest that mortgage PH were... mehr

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    We use UK transaction-level data during the Covid-19 pandemic to study whether mortgage payment holidays (PH) can act as a mechanism for smoothing household consumption following negative aggregate shocks. Our results suggest that mortgage PH were accessed by both households with pre-existing financial vulnerabilities and by those with stronger balance sheets, including buy-to-let investors. We also find that the temporary liquidity relief provided by PH allowed liquidity-constrained households to maintain higher annual consumption growth compared to those non-eligible for the policy. Finally, we find that mortgage PH led to higher saving rates for more financially-stable households

     
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    ISBN: 9798400204463
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 44
    Schlagworte: Mortgage payment holidays; Household behaviour; Consumption; High-frequency data; Difference-in-differences; Panel data; Macroeconomics; Mortgage Payment Holidays; Personal Finance; Saving; Wealth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Supply bottlenecks
    where, why, how much, and what next?
    Autor*in: Celasun, Oya; Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; Mineshima, Aiko; Spector, Mariano; Zhou, Jing
    Erschienen: 2022 FEB
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price... mehr

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    Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs-such as autos-are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched

     
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    ISBN: 9798400202476
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 31
    Schlagworte: Output; Inflation; Manufacturing; Supply Constraints; Macroeconomics; Output, Inflation, Manufacturing and Supply Constraints; PPI Inflation; Prices, Business Fluctuations and Cycles; Producer Price Inflation; Supply-Shock Contribution
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Secular drivers of the natural rate of interest in the United States
    a quantitative evaluation
    Autor*in: Platzer, Josef; Peruffo, Marcel
    Erschienen: 2022 FEB
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in... mehr

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    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in r* between 1975 and 2015, which is within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict that r* will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal will begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run, a low level when compared with the postwar path of r* implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of r* through the tax and transfer system

     
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    ISBN: 9798400203282
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 30
    Schlagworte: Demographic Change; Inequality; Life-cycle; Natural Rate of Interest; Nonhomothetic Preferences; Secular Stagnation; Interest Rates; Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance; Macroeconomics; Personal Income, Wealth and Their Distributions; Saving; Wealth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Breaking the barriers to higher economic growth
    better governance and deeper reforms in the Middle East and North Africa
    Autor*in: Nabli, Mustapha K.
    Erschienen: 2007
    Verlag:  The World Bank, Washington, DC

    Preface -- Acknowledgments growth, reform, and governance. Long-term economic development challenges and prospects for the Arab countries / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Reform complementarities and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa /... mehr

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    Preface -- Acknowledgments growth, reform, and governance. Long-term economic development challenges and prospects for the Arab countries / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Reform complementarities and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa / Mustapha Kamel Nabli and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis -- After Argentina : was MENA right to be cautious? / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Restarting Arab economic reform / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Democracy for better governance and higher economic growth in the MENA region? / Mustapha K. Nabli and Carlos Silva-Juregui -- The political economy of industrial policy in the Middle East and North Africa / Mustapha K. Nabli, Jennifer Keller, Claudia Nassif, and Carlos Silva-Juregui -- Labor markets and human capital. The macroeconomics of labor market outcomes in MENA / Jennifer Keller and Mustapha K. Nabli -- Challenges and opportunities for the 21st century / Mustapha Nabli -- Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa / Pierre-Richard Agnor, Mustapha K. Nabli, Tarik Yousef, and Henning Tarp Jensen -- Economic reforms and people mobility for a more effective EU-MED partnership / Ishac Diwan, Mustapha Nabli, Adama Coulibaly, and Sara Johansson de Silva -- Trade, competitiveness, and investment. Cruise control, shock Absorbers, and traffic lights / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Trade, foreign direct investment, and development in the Middle East and North Africa / Farrukh Iqbal and Mustapha Kamel Nabli -- Making trade work for jobs / Dipak Dasgupta, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, Christopher Pissarides, and Aristomene Varoudakis -- Exchange rate management within the Middle East and North Africa Region / Mustapha Nabli, Jennifer Keller, and Marie-Ange Vganzons -- How does exchange rate policy affect manufactured exports in MENA countries / Mustapha Kamel Nabli and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis -- Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa / Pierre-Richard Agnor, Mustapha K. Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef -- Governance, institutions, and private investment / Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    ISBN: 9780821374153
    RVK Klassifikation: QG 810
    Auflage/Ausgabe: [Repr.]
    Schlagworte: Wirtschaftswachstum; Arbeitsmarkt; Internationale Wirtschaft; Wirtschaftspolitik; Wirtschaftsreform; MENA-Staaten; Economic development; Economic development; Macroeconomics; Economic development; Economic development; Macroeconomics; Wirtschaftliche Lage; Entwicklungsmodell; Wirtschaftspolitik; Wirtschaftsreform; Einflussgröße; Politik; Privatwirtschaft; Wirtschaftsförderung; Weltmarkt; Direktinvestition; Arbeitsmarkt; Humankapital; Außenhandelspolitik; Infrastrukturpolitik; Makroökonomie; Naher und Mittlerer Osten und Nordafrika
    Umfang: XI, 486 S., graph. Darst.
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    Enth. 17 Beitr

    Preface -- Acknowledgments growth, reform, and governance. Long-term economic development challenges and prospects for the Arab countries / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Reform complementarities and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa / Mustapha Kamel Nabli and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis -- After Argentina : was MENA right to be cautious? / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Restarting Arab economic reform / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Democracy for better governance and higher economic growth in the MENA region? / Mustapha K. Nabli and Carlos Silva-Juregui -- The political economy of industrial policy in the Middle East and North Africa / Mustapha K. Nabli, Jennifer Keller, Claudia Nassif, and Carlos Silva-Juregui -- Labor markets and human capital. The macroeconomics of labor market outcomes in MENA / Jennifer Keller and Mustapha K. Nabli -- Challenges and opportunities for the 21st century / Mustapha Nabli -- Labor market reforms, growth, and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa / Pierre-Richard Agnor, Mustapha K. Nabli, Tarik Yousef, and Henning Tarp Jensen -- Economic reforms and people mobility for a more effective EU-MED partnership / Ishac Diwan, Mustapha Nabli, Adama Coulibaly, and Sara Johansson de Silva -- Trade, competitiveness, and investment. Cruise control, shock Absorbers, and traffic lights / Mustapha K. Nabli -- Trade, foreign direct investment, and development in the Middle East and North Africa / Farrukh Iqbal and Mustapha Kamel Nabli -- Making trade work for jobs / Dipak Dasgupta, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, Christopher Pissarides, and Aristomene Varoudakis -- Exchange rate management within the Middle East and North Africa Region / Mustapha Nabli, Jennifer Keller, and Marie-Ange Vganzons -- How does exchange rate policy affect manufactured exports in MENA countries / Mustapha Kamel Nabli and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis -- Public infrastructure and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa / Pierre-Richard Agnor, Mustapha K. Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef -- Governance, institutions, and private investment / Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Vganzons-Varoudakis
  19. Macroeconomics and finance in the Caribbean
    quantitative analyses
    Erschienen: 1997
    Verlag:  Caribbean Centre for Monetary Studies, St. Augustine, Trinidad

    Standort:
    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9766200734; 9766200742
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2
    Schlagworte: Makroökonomik; Karibischer Raum; Finance; Macroeconomics
    Umfang: VIII, 215 S., graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Enth. 7 Beitr.
  20. The impact of macroeconomic policies on the rural poor
    analytical framework and indicators
    Beteiligt: Azam, Jean-Paul (HerausgeberIn)
    Erschienen: 1989
    Verlag:  United Nations Development Programme, New York

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Beteiligt: Azam, Jean-Paul (HerausgeberIn)
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    ISBN: 9211260140
    Weitere Identifier:
    UN publ. E.89.III.B.5
    Schriftenreihe: UNDP Policy Discussion Paper
    Schlagworte: Ländliche Armut; Wirtschaftspolitik; Entwicklungsländer
    Weitere Schlagworte: Economic policy; Rural poor; Macroeconomics; Economic indicators
    Umfang: 94 Seiten
    Bemerkung(en):

    Aus d. Franz. übers
  21. The macroeconomics of European agriculture
    Autor*in: Thorvaldur Gylfason
    Erschienen: 1995
    Verlag:  Internat. Finance Section, Department of Economic, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ

    Standort:
    Informationszentrum der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V.
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    ISBN: 0881652504
    RVK Klassifikation: QS 000
    Schriftenreihe: Princeton studies in international finance ; 78
    Schlagworte: Agrarprotektionismus; Agrarpolitik; Soziale Kosten; EU-Staaten; Agriculture; Produce trade; Agriculture; Produce trade; Macroeconomics; Agrarpolitik; Ziel; Wirtschaftspolitik; Konzeption; Effektivität; Wirkung; Auswirkung; Makroökonomie; Wirtschaftsentwicklung
    Umfang: 56 S, graph. Darst, 23 cm
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 48 - 51
  22. Successful transitions from public to private-sector led growth
    lessons for Benin
    Autor*in: Diallo, Aissatou
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, like Benin, have scaled up public investment during the last decade. Such a strategy contributed to the improvement of infrastructure, but also to a build-up of debt vulnerabilities. Looking forward, the... mehr

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    Many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, like Benin, have scaled up public investment during the last decade. Such a strategy contributed to the improvement of infrastructure, but also to a build-up of debt vulnerabilities. Looking forward, the planned fiscal consolidation will result in some restraint of public spending, and, in particular, public investment. In this context, maintaining or even raising the region's economic growth will require an offset by the private sector. The analysis draws lessons from countries that have successfully transitioned from public investment to private investment-led growth using a global sample starting in the mid-1980s. These lessons highlight policies that have been crucial in fostering a rebound of private investment in the wake of a contraction of public investment. The analytical framework proposed by Hausman, Rodrik and Velasco (2005) is used to identify and classify such policies. Finally, the paper analyses how the identified policies could help Benin achieving a smooth transition from public to private sector-led growth

     
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  23. Towards transformation of the development model in Latin America and the Caribbean
    production, inclusion and sustainability : thirty-ninth session of ECLAC, Buenos Aires, 24-26 October 2022
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  United Nations, ECLAC, Santiago

    In a regional and international context of weak growth, high inflation and growing inequality, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean must focus policies on reactivating, rebuilding and transforming economic and production systems to... mehr

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    In a regional and international context of weak growth, high inflation and growing inequality, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean must focus policies on reactivating, rebuilding and transforming economic and production systems to advance towards low-carbon and high-tech economies that address climate change and reduce their historical gaps, structural heterogeneity and dualism.This document considers the complex conditions that pose significant challenges to accelerating growth, tackling high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, maintaining transfers to the most vulnerable households, mitigating the social costs of the crisis and boosting investment. Its chapters analyse the dynamics of globalization and the policy challenges in changing the production structure and moving towards sustainable development. In addition, they consider strategies for reducing inequality and creating universal protection systems and decent jobs in a challenging world. Nine strategic sectors expected to drive a big push for sustainability are examined through the prism of green growth. The document concludes with policy recommendations for advancing towards a renewed model for inclusive and sustainable growth. Foreword .-- I. The present and future of globalization: crises, environmental emergency .-- II. Production structure and policies for sustainable development .-- III. Inequality, employment and social policy .-- IV. Sectoral considerations: drivers of sustainable development .-- V. Policies to transform the development model .-- Tables.

     
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789210055864; 9789213583692
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/48309
    Schriftenreihe: United Nations publication
    Schlagworte: DESARROLLO ECONOMICO; MODELOS DE DESARROLLO; GLOBALIZACION; MEDIO AMBIENTE; CAMBIO CLIMATICO; CAMBIO TECNOLOGICO; TECNOLOGIA DIGITAL; PRODUCTIVIDAD; DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE; POLITICA INDUSTRIAL; EMPLEO; POLITICA SOCIAL; IGUALDAD; GASTOS PUBLICOS; POLITICA ENERGETICA; TRANSPORTE; ECONOMIA VERDE; SALUD; BIENESTAR SOCIAL; CUIDADORES; TURISMO; PEQUEÑAS Y MEDIANAS EMPRESAS; POLITICA DE DESARROLLO; POLITICA ECONOMICA; INTEGRACION ECONOMICA; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT MODELS; GLOBALIZATION; ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE; DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY; PRODUCTIVITY; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; INDUSTRIAL POLICY; EMPLOYMENT; SOCIAL POLICY; EQUALITY; PUBLIC EXPENDITURES; ENERGY POLICY; TRANSPORT; GREEN ECONOMY; HEALTH; SOCIAL WELFARE; CAREGIVERS; TOURISM; SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES; DEVELOPMENT POLICY; ECONOMIC POLICY; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; Employment; Environment; Inclusive Development; Inequality; Innovation; Science And Technology; Macroeconomics; Productivity; Public Policies; Social Protection; Social Rights; Sustainable Development; Circular Economy Economic Development; Development Models; Globalization; Climate Change; Technological Change; Digital Technology; Productivity; Industrial Policy; Social Policy; Equality; Public Expenditures; Energy Policy; Transport; Green Economy; Health; Social Welfare; Caregivers; Tourism; Small And Medium Enterprises; Development Policy; Economic Policy; Economic Integration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 283 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Inflación global en el bienio 2021-2022 y su impacto en América Latina
    Autor*in: Cherkasky, Martín
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), Santiago

    En este trabajo se estudian los factores que impulsaron la inflación en el bienio 2021 -2022 en seis economías de América Latina desde un enfoque de costos. Los determinantes de la inflación se estiman a partir de una variante de un modelo empírico... mehr

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    Ibero-Amerikanisches Institut Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Bibliothek
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    En este trabajo se estudian los factores que impulsaron la inflación en el bienio 2021 -2022 en seis economías de América Latina desde un enfoque de costos. Los determinantes de la inflación se estiman a partir de una variante de un modelo empírico estándar en el que se utiliza el método de proyección local de Jordà (2005). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el mayor aporte al aumento de la inflación en el período analizado se asocia a la suba del precio de las materias primas, tanto entre las economías exportadoras como importadoras de esos productos. A su vez, se muestra que el aumento de la inflación fue mayor en comparación con el superciclo de las materias primas de 2008 porque en esta oportunidad se sumaron las presiones sobre los tipos de cambio, en un contexto de una política monetaria contractiva de las economías centrales y de una mayor vulnerabilidad financiera de los países de la región. Este mayor aumento de la inflación tuvo como contrapartida una caída de los salarios reales que en varios casos profundizó la tendencia de los dos años previos. Por último, se plantea que los mayores desafíos que enfrenta la región para contener nuevas presiones inflacionarias son financieros, y que el foco de la política económica debe estar puesto en proteger los ingresos de los sectores sociales más vulnerables que ya habían sido afectados por la crisis de la pandemia por COVID-19. Resumen .-- Introducción .-- I. Marco conceptual .-- II. Estimaciones empíricas .-- III. Determinantes de la inflación y su impacto distributivo .-- IV. Conclusiones.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Spanisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 11362/48504
    Schriftenreihe: Serie estudios y perspectivas ; 55
    Schlagworte: Economic Growth; Economic Indicators And Projections; Financial And Monetary Sector; Inflation; International Trade; Macroeconomics; Economic Conditions; Prices; Income Distribution; Economic Policy; CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS; CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO; INFLACION; PRECIOS; DISTRIBUCION DEL INGRESO; POLITICA ECONOMICA; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS; ECONOMIC GROWTH; INFLATION; PRICES; INCOME DISTRIBUTION; ECONOMIC POLICY
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Household deleveraging and saving rates
    a cross-country analysis
    Autor*in: Bouis, Romain
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this... mehr

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    Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates. This relationship is however asymmetric, being significant only for debt build-ups. Declining debt ratios and saving are significantly related in some economies, but the relationship is driven by consumer credit, not by mortgages. Results therefore suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via lower mortgages

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781589064072
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 257
    Schlagworte: Household debt; saving rates; consumption growth; deleveraging; consumer credit; mortgages; housing equity withdrawal; Financial Crises; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Macroeconomics; Saving; Wealth
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen