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  1. Rebels without a cause
    the new face of African warfare
    Autor*in: Stearns, Jason
    Erschienen: 2022

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    Übergeordneter Titel: Enthalten in: Foreign affairs; New York, NY [u.a.] : Council on Foreign Relations, 1922; 101(2022), 3 vom: Mai/Juni, Seite 143-156; Online-Ressource

    Schlagworte: Aufstand; Politischer Konflikt; Innenpolitik; Wandel; Motivation; Ressourcenallokation; Innere Sicherheit; Verlauf; Konflikt; Implikation; Kreditgeber; Weltwirtschaft
  2. Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine
    implications for the future of EU-Turkey relations
    Autor*in: Adar, Sinem
    Erschienen: [April 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    Undermining the foundational pillars of the post-Cold War security order, Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is a watershed event for Europe and the wider world, Tur­key included. While Ankara is trying to protect its economy and security... mehr

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    Undermining the foundational pillars of the post-Cold War security order, Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is a watershed event for Europe and the wider world, Tur­key included. While Ankara is trying to protect its economy and security interests, anti-Western narratives dominate the public debate. The war has indeed accentuated anti-Westernism as one of the main fault lines of political competition. Given the geo­political imperatives that February 24 brought to the fore, it is highly likely that, in the short-term, Turkey's NATO membership and its Association Agreement with the EU will - geopolitically and economically - continue to anchor it to the West. Whether or not a full strategic alignment with the EU will accompany such an anchoring is far from certain, however, mainly due to Turkey’s domestic political dynamics, but also due to the unclarity about how far the EU is willing to move beyond a transactional approach.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/256748
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 25 (April 2022)
    Schlagworte: Wahrnehmung; Implikation; Internationale Politik; Innenpolitik; Einflussgröße; Entwicklung; Tendenz
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (8 Seiten)
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    Gesehen am 06.04.2022
  3. Unpacking Turkey's security footprint in Africa
    trends and implications for the EU
    Autor*in: Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat
    Erschienen: [June 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    African states are aspiring to strengthen their defence capabilities against the backdrop of ongoing instability in the continent. Turkey has lately added security and defence cooperation to its existing soft power instruments and laid the... mehr

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    African states are aspiring to strengthen their defence capabilities against the backdrop of ongoing instability in the continent. Turkey has lately added security and defence cooperation to its existing soft power instruments and laid the foundations for long-term strategic cooperation with African countries. Increasing drone sales are an important part of this cooperation, but they are not its only component. A mutually reinforcing policy design of arms exports, military training, and defence diplomacy allows the Turkish administration to build long-term and institutional bonds with African countries. Today, Turkey is one among many security providers that African states can choose from. Also, the European Union (EU), in its February summit with the African Union, committed to strengthening its role in addressing shared peace and security challenges in the continent. To achieve this goal, the EU and its member states should revisit potential cooperation areas with partners that are active in the continent and consider the benefits of potential cooperation with Ankara.

     
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    hdl: 10419/263353
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 42 (June 2022)
    Schlagworte: Sicherheitspolitik; Militärische Kooperation; Ursache; Außenpolitik; Strategie; Internationale Kooperation; Implikation; Waffenhandel; Mitgliedsstaaten; Politisches Interesse; Konvergenz
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (7 Seiten)
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    Gesehen am 30.06.2022
  4. The role of nuclear weapons in Russia's strategic deterrence
    implications for European security and nuclear arms control
    Autor*in: Wachs, Lydia
    Erschienen: [November 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    In the West, Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is often described as one of “escalate to deescalate”. The thinking goes that Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons at an early stage in a conflict in order to “deescalate” and terminate the... mehr

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    In the West, Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy is often described as one of “escalate to deescalate”. The thinking goes that Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons at an early stage in a conflict in order to “deescalate” and terminate the confrontation quickly in its favour. However, Russia’s official military doctrine, nuclear exercises of the Russian military, and debates among political and military elites have so far pointed in a different direction. With the concept of “strategic deterrence”, Russia has developed a holistic deterrence strategy in which nuclear weapons remain an important element. Yet, to gain more flexibility below the nuclear threshold in order to manage escalation, the strategy also conceptualises a broad range of non-military and conventional means. Given Russia’s dwindling arsenal of conventional precision weapons due to its war against Ukraine as well as the strategic adaptation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia’s strategy is likely to change: In the coming years, Russia’s reliance on its non-strategic nuclear weapons will probably increase. These developments could both undermine crisis stability in Europe and further impede the prospects for nuclear arms control in the future.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266591
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 68 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: Sicherheitspolitik; Kernwaffe; Atomstrategie; Abschreckung; Bedeutung; Rolle; Implikation; Kollektive Sicherheit; Bedrohungsanalyse; nuclear weapons; strategic deterrence; Russia; strategic deterrence; military doctrine; North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); war against Ukraine
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (7 Seiten)
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    Gesehen am 28.11.2022

    "English version of SWP-Aktuell 59/2022"
  5. The challenge of decarbonisation and EU-Turkey trade relations
    a long-term perspective
    Autor*in: Tastan, Kadri
    Erschienen: [November 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    The implementation of the European Union’s (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU’s trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing... mehr

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    The implementation of the European Union’s (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU’s trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic sectors, the EU’s climate policy will be in­creasingly integrated into its trade policy through measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and by strengthening the environment chapters of its trade agreements. Therefore, the debate on the future of Turkey-EU trade relations should focus on future prospects for decarbonisation and trade if both sides are keen to maintain or deepen their trade relations. In the current context, which is rife with geopolitical and energy security considerations, a long-term vision and a holistic approach are needed now more than ever.

     
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  6. Chad's crisis-prone transition
    dynastic consolidation and its risks
    Autor*in: Lacher, Wolfram
    Erschienen: [November 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    Since President Idris Deby’s violent death in April 2021, the ruling elite in Chad have sought to protect their hold on power by promoting the dynastic succession of his son Mahamat. The risks of this strategy are becoming clearer with the October... mehr

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    Since President Idris Deby’s violent death in April 2021, the ruling elite in Chad have sought to protect their hold on power by promoting the dynastic succession of his son Mahamat. The risks of this strategy are becoming clearer with the October 2022 decision to prolong the transition by another two years as Mahamat Deby is appointed interim president. With the emergence of new opposition forces, the tactic of divid­ing antagonistic elites through selective co-optation faces limits. Both in the capital and in the provinces, power struggles are fuelling identity-based mobilisation. The regime’s repression of the opposition plays into the hands of the proponents of armed struggle. France, as the guarantor of Mahamat Deby’s superior position vis-à-vis the rebels, is playing an increasingly unpopular role.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266590
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 67 (November 2022)
    Schlagworte: Staatsoberhaupt; Nachfolge; Mitarbeiter; Dynastie; Implikation; Politisches System; Politischer Wandel; Konflikt; Politischer Konflikt; Innenpolitik; Machtkampf; Miliz; Opposition; Politische Mobilisierung; Elite; Chad; transition; Idris Deby; Mahamat Deby; Emmanuel Macron; European Union (EU); African Union (AU); National Dialogue; Front pour l'Alternance et la Concorde au Tchad (FACT); Conseil de Commandement Militaire pour le Salut de la République (CCMSR)
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    Gesehen am 21.11.2022

    "Updated English version of SWP-Aktuell 71/2022"
  7. Terror against the Taliban
    Islamic State shows new strength in Afghanistan
    Autor*in: Steinberg, Guido; Albrecht, Aljoscha
    Erschienen: [February 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    Since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the Taliban took power in the country, the local branch of Islamic State (IS) - the so-called Khorasan Province - has carried out dozens of attacks on Taliban "security forces" and... mehr

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    Since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the Taliban took power in the country, the local branch of Islamic State (IS) - the so-called Khorasan Province - has carried out dozens of attacks on Taliban "security forces" and civilians, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Many attacks have been in the old IS stronghold of Nangarhar in eastern Afghanistan and in the capital, Kabul, but the jihadists have also been active in Kandahar, Kunduz and Kunar. The latest terrorist acts demonstrate the enormous challenge that IS poses for the Taliban. Owing to a lack of funds, personnel and structures, the latter is unable to exercise effective control over all Afghan territory and significantly weaken IS. In fact, there is a danger that these shortfalls will allow IS to expand its terrorist activities beyond Afghanistan. While the neighbouring states of Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are particularly at risk, Europe, too, could become a target.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/256735
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 12 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: Machtwechsel; Regierungswechsel; Implikation; Innere Sicherheit; Terrorist; Djihad; Attentat; Terrorismus; Strategie
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    "English version of SWP-Aktuell 8/2022"

    Gesehen am 21.02.2022
  8. Masculinities and violent extremism
    Autor*in: Dier, Aleksandra; Baldwin, Gretchen
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  International Peace Institute, New York, NY

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    Schlagworte: Dschihadismus; Militanz; Islam; Gewalt; Politik; Terrorist; Djihad; Ursache; Motivation; Geschlecht; Implikation; Geschlechterrolle; Mann; Terrorismus; Bekämpfung; Niederschlagung <Politik>
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (22 Seite)
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    Gesehen am 05.07.2022
  9. Turkish and Iranian involvement in Iraq and Syria
    competing strategies, rising threat perceptions, and potentials for conflict
    Autor*in: Azizi, Hamidreza; Çevik, Salim
    Erschienen: [October 2022]
    Verlag:  SWP, Berlin

    It has become cliché to argue that Turkish-Iranian relations oscillate between a controlled rivalry and limited cooperation. However, in Iraq and Syria, rising tensions between Turkey and Turkey-affiliated groups on the one hand and Iran and... mehr

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    It has become cliché to argue that Turkish-Iranian relations oscillate between a controlled rivalry and limited cooperation. However, in Iraq and Syria, rising tensions between Turkey and Turkey-affiliated groups on the one hand and Iran and Iran-backed groups on the other, have put the two countries on a collision course. Con­flictual relations between Turkey and Iran have the potential to destabilise the Middle East and the South Caucasus, spawning additional security risks as well as waves of migration towards Europe. Such a situation could also complicate matters related to European energy security. Europe should remain alert and help to ease tensions through deescalation mechanisms. In this regard, efforts to strengthen Iraqi sovereignty may serve as a preemptive measure.

     
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    hdl: 10419/266581
    Schriftenreihe: SWP comment ; 2022, no. 58 (October 2022)
    Schlagworte: Intervention <Völkerrecht>; Militärische Intervention; Bürgerkrieg; Politischer Konflikt; Innenpolitik; Militärische Kooperation; Strategie; Außenpolitik; Rivalität; Internationale Politik; Internationale Krise; Bedrohungsvorstellung; Konflikt; Kurden; Internationaler Konflikt; Implikation; Kollektive Sicherheit; Iraq; Syria; Turkey; Iran; rivalry; cooperation; Middle East; South Caucasus; European energy security; PKK; Kurdish question
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (8 Seiten)
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    Gesehen am 12.109.2022