Direkt zur Hauptnavigation springen Direkt zum Inhalt springen
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Letzte Suchanfragen

Ergebnisse für *

Zeige Ergebnisse 1 bis 25 von 26.

  1. Real time econometrics
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Signatur:
    bc 1391-1169
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Signatur:
    1 : Z 104.53:1169
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 624 (1169)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1169 a
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1169 b
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1169 c
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker’s actions to the data generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1169
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: 20 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.18-20
  2. Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Signatur:
    bc 1391-1176
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Signatur:
    1 : Z 104.53:1176
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 624 (1176)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1176 a
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1176 b
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1176 c
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions. The extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed. To identify contagion effects in the presence of inter-dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country (market) specific forcing variables. This sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation-based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country (market) specific fundamentals. Finally, we show that ignoring inter-dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient, and using Monte Carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1176
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Ökonometrisches Modell; Contagion
    Umfang: 32, XIII S, graph. Darst., Tab
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.31-32
  3. Real time econometrics
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 32 (4402)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4402
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: 20 S
  4. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Signatur:
    bc 1391-1237
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Signatur:
    1 : Z 104.53:1237
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 624 (1237)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1237 a
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1237 b
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1237 c
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the hyper parameters from the meta distributions that characterize the stochastic break point process. In an application to US Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than alternative methods that ignore breaks, particularly at long horizons.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1237
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie
    Umfang: 38 S, graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 20 - 22
  5. Random coefficient panel data models
    Autor*in: Hsiao, Cheng; Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficient models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Signatur:
    bc 1391-1233
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Signatur:
    1 : Z 104.53:1233
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 624 (1233)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1233 a
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1233 b
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1233 c
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficient models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical inference of a random coefficients formulation using both the sampling and Bayesian approaches. The paper also provides a review of heterogeneous dynamic panels, testing for homogeneity under weak exogeneity, simultaneous equation random coefficient models, and the more recent developments in the area of cross-sectional dependence in panel data models.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1233
    Schlagworte: Panel; Theorie
    Umfang: 38 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 32 - 38
  6. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Signatur:
    bc 1391-1229
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Signatur:
    1 : Z 104.53:1229
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 624 (1229)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1229 a
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1229 b
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Standort:
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    Signatur:
    S32-1229 c
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel, and can be used to test for cross section dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross section units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distribution of these tests are derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T, and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the World.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1229
    Schlagworte: Panel; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Dependence (Statistics); Panel analysis; Regression analysis
    Umfang: 40 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.39-40
  7. Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 32 (4401)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

    Standort:
    Deutsche Universität für Verwaltungswissenschaften Speyer, Universitätsbibliothek
    Fernleihe:
    keine Ausleihe von Bänden, nur Papierkopien werden versandt
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4401
    Schlagworte: Strukturbruch; Prognoseverfahren; Autokorrelation
    Umfang: 36 S.
  8. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    W 32 (4636)
    Fernleihe:
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4636
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie; Treasury bills
    Umfang: 38 S, graph. Darst
  9. Tests of policy ineffectiveness in macroeconometrics
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  School of Economics, Mathematics an Statistics, Birkbeck College, Univ. of London, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    Keine Speicherung
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Birkbeck working papers in economics & finance ; 1405
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (38 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics
    an empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  School of Economics, Mathematics an Statistics, Birkbeck College, Univ. of London, London

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    Keine Speicherung
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Birkbeck working papers in economics & finance ; 1406
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.)
  11. A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs
    Autor*in: Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (5100)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undeter-mined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the strong factors and establish conditions under which forecasts from the augmented GVAR model (AugGVAR) uniformly converge in probability to the infeasible optimal forecasts obtained from a factor-augmented high-dimensional VAR model. The small sample properties of the proposed solution are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments as well as empirically. In the empirical part, we investigate the value of the information content of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes quite rapidly with the forecast horizon, and (b) AugGVAR forecasts do as well as other data-rich forecasting techniques for short horizons, and tend to do better for longer forecast horizons.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/105153
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 5100
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([1], 57 S.), graph. Darst.
  12. Estimation of time-invariant effects in static panel data models
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Zhou, Qiankun
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    This paper proposes the Fixed Effects Filtered (FEF) and Fixed Effects Filtered instrumental variable (FEF-IV) estimators for estimation and inference in the case of time-invariant effects in static panel data models when N is large and T is fixed.... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4983)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes the Fixed Effects Filtered (FEF) and Fixed Effects Filtered instrumental variable (FEF-IV) estimators for estimation and inference in the case of time-invariant effects in static panel data models when N is large and T is fixed. It is shown that the FEF and FEF-IV estimators are ãN-consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. The FEF estimator is compared with the Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition (FEVD) estimator proposed by Plumper and Troeger (2007) and conditions under which the two estimators are equivalent are established. It is also shown that the variance estimator proposed for FEVD estimator is inconsistent and its use could lead to misleading inference. Alternative variance estimators are proposed for both FEF and FEF-IV estimators which are shown to be consistent under fairly general conditions. The small sample properties of the FEF and FEF-IV estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments, and it is shown that FEF has smaller bias and RMSE, unless an intercept is included in the second stage of the FEVD procedure which renders the FEF and FEVD estimators identical. The FEVD procedure, however, results in substantial size distortions since it uses incorrect standard errors. We also compare the FEF-IV estimator with the estimator proposed by Hausman and Taylor (1981), when one of the time-invariant regressors is correlated with the fixed effects. Both FEF and FEF-IV estimators are shown to be robust to error variance heteroskedasticity and residual serial correlation.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/103146
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4983
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (47 S.)
  13. A two stage approach to spatiotemporal analysis with strong and weak cross-sectional dependence
    Autor*in: Bailey, Natalia; Holly, Sean; Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    An understanding of the spatial dimension of economic and social activity requires methods that can separate out the relationship between spatial units that is due to the effect of common factors from that which is purely spatial even in an abstract... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4592)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    An understanding of the spatial dimension of economic and social activity requires methods that can separate out the relationship between spatial units that is due to the effect of common factors from that which is purely spatial even in an abstract sense. The same applies to the empirical analysis of networks in general. We are able to distinguish between cross-sectional strong dependence and weak dependence. Strong dependence in turn suggests that there are common factors. We use cross unit averages to extract common factors and contrast this to a principal components approach widely used in the literature. We then use a multiple testing procedure to determine significant bilateral correlations (signifying connections) between spatial units and compare this to an approach that just uses distance to determine units that are neighbours. We apply these methods to real house price changes at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the USA, and estimate a heterogeneous spatiotemporal model for the defactored real house price changes and obtain significant evidence of spatial connections, both positive and negative.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/93406
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4592
    Schlagworte: Immobilienpreis; Räumliche Verteilung; Ballungsraum; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. Tests of policy ineffectiveness in macroeconometrics
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4871)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after the intervention. The test is based on the difference between the realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre-intervention parameter estimates, and in consequence the Lucas Critique does not apply. The paper develops tests of policy ineffectiveness for a full structural model, with and without exogenous, policy or non-policy, variables. Asymptotic distributions of the proposed tests are derived both when the post intervention sample is fixed as the pre-intervention sample expands, and when both samples rise jointly but at different rates. The performance of the test is illustrated by a simulated policy analysis of a three equation New Keynesian Model, which shows that the test size is correct but the power may be low unless the model includes exogenous variables, or if the policy intervention changes the steady states, such as the inflation target.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/102104
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4871
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (38 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. Transformed maximum likelihood estimation of short dynamic panel data models with interactive effects
    Autor*in: Hayakawa, Kazuhiko; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    This paper proposes the transformed maximum likelihood estimator for short dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects, and provides an extension of Hsiao et al. (2002) that allows for a multifactor error structure. This is an important... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4822)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes the transformed maximum likelihood estimator for short dynamic panel data models with interactive fixed effects, and provides an extension of Hsiao et al. (2002) that allows for a multifactor error structure. This is an important extension since it retains the advantages of the transformed likelihood approach, whilst at the same time allows for observed factors (fixed or random). Small sample results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations show that the transformed ML estimator performs well in finite samples and outperforms the GMM estimators proposed in the literature in almost all cases considered.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/102205
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4822
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([1], 40 S.)
  16. A multiple testing approach to the regularisation of large sample correlation matrices
    Autor*in: Bailey, Natalia; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of insights from the multiple testing literature. The method tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4834)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of insights from the multiple testing literature. The method tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not statistically significant, taking account of the multiple testing nature of the problem. The procedure is straightforward to implement, and does not require cross validation. By using the inverse of the normal distribution at a predetermined significance level, it circumvents the challenge of evaluating the theoretical constant arising in the rate of convergence of existing thresholding estimators. We compare the performance of our multiple testing (MT) estimator to a number of thresholding and shrinkage estimators in the literature in a detailed Monte Carlo simulation study. Results show that our MT estimator performs well in a number of different settings and tends to outperform other estimators, particularly when the cross-sectional dimension, N, is larger than the time series dimension, T: If the inverse covariance matrix is of interest then we recommend a shrinkage version of the MT estimator that ensures positive definiteness.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/102096
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4834
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([1], 44 S.)
  17. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Autor*in: Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (1237)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the hyper parameters from the meta distributions that characterize the stochastic break point process. In an application to US Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than alternative methods that ignore breaks, particularly at long horizons.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18876
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1237
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (1229)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel, and can be used to test for cross section dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross section units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distribution of these tests are derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T, and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the World.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18868
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1229
    Schlagworte: Panel; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Dependence (Statistics); Panel analysis; Regression analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  19. Random coefficient panel data models
    Autor*in: Hsiao, Cheng; Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficients models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (1233)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficients models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical inference of a random coefficients formulation using both the sampling and Bayesian approaches. The paper also provides a review of heterogeneous dynamic panels, testing for homogeneity under weak exogeneity, simultaneous equation random coefficient models, and the more recent developments in the area of cross-sectional dependence in panel data models. Keywords: random coefficient models, dynamic heterogeneous panels, classical and Bayesian approaches, tests of slope heterogeneity, cross section dependence.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18872
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1233
    Schlagworte: Panel; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  20. Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (1176)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions. The extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed. To identify contagion effects in the presence of inter-dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country (market) specific forcing variables. This sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation-based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country (market) specific fundamentals. Finally, we show that ignoring inter-dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient, and using Monte Carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/76564
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo Working Paper ; 1176
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Ökonometrisches Modell; Contagion
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  21. Real time econometrics
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (1169)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker s actions to the data generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/76550
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo Working Paper ; 1169
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  22. Uncertainty and economic activity
    a global perspective
    Autor*in: Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, Alessandro
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility... mehr

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 144 (510)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics. This paper studies the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors and that these factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, the paper analytically shows that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the literature is mis-specified. The paper empirically documents a statistically significant and economically sizable impact of future output growth on current volatility, and no effect of volatility shocks on business cycles, over and above those driven by the common factors. The evidence is interpreted as suggesting that volatility is a symptom rather than a cause of economic instability.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/115465
    hdl: 11319/6605
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; 510
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (58 S.), graph. Darst.
  23. Theory and practice of GVAR modeling
    Autor*in: Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4807)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling, examining both the theoretical foundations of the approach and its numerous empirical applications. We provide a synthesis of existing literature and highlight areas for future research.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/102179
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4807
    Umfang: Online-Ressource ([1], 54 S.)
  24. Uncertainty and economic activity
    a global perspective
    Autor*in: Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, Alessandro
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  CESifo, München

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down... mehr

    Standort:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (4736)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors. We further assume that these common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, we show analytically that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the literature is mis-specified as least squares estimates of this equation are inconsistent. Empirically, we document a statistically significant and economically sizable impact of future output growth on current volatility, and no effect of volatility shocks on business cycles, over and above those driven by the common factors. We interpret this evidence as suggesting that volatility is a symptom rather than a cause of economic instability.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/96879
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4736
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (65 S.), graph. Darst.
  25. Uncertainty and economic activity
    a global perspective
    Autor*in: Pesaran, M. Hashem; Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Rebucci, Alessandro
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Univ. of Cambridge, Dep. of Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 123 (2014,07)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working papers in economics ; 1407
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (65 S.), graph. Darst.