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  1. Real time econometrics
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    bc 1391-1169
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    1 : Z 104.53:1169
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 624 (1169)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1169 a
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1169 b
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1169 c
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker’s actions to the data generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1169
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: 20 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.18-20

  2. Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    bc 1391-1176
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    1 : Z 104.53:1176
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 624 (1176)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1176 a
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1176 b
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1176 c
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions. The extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed. To identify contagion effects in the presence of inter-dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country (market) specific forcing variables. This sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation-based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country (market) specific fundamentals. Finally, we show that ignoring inter-dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient, and using Monte Carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial.

     

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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1176
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Ökonometrisches Modell; Contagion
    Umfang: 32, XIII S, graph. Darst., Tab
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.31-32

  3. Real time econometrics
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (4402)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4402
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: 20 S
  4. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    bc 1391-1237
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    1 : Z 104.53:1237
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 624 (1237)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1237 a
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1237 b
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1237 c
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the hyper parameters from the meta distributions that characterize the stochastic break point process. In an application to US Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than alternative methods that ignore breaks, particularly at long horizons.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1237
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie
    Umfang: 38 S, graph. Darst
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 20 - 22

  5. Random coefficient panel data models
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficient models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    bc 1391-1233
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    1 : Z 104.53:1233
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 624 (1233)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1233 a
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1233 b
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1233 c
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficient models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical inference of a random coefficients formulation using both the sampling and Bayesian approaches. The paper also provides a review of heterogeneous dynamic panels, testing for homogeneity under weak exogeneity, simultaneous equation random coefficient models, and the more recent developments in the area of cross-sectional dependence in panel data models.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1233
    Schlagworte: Panel; Theorie
    Umfang: 38 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S. 32 - 38

  6. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Univ., Center for Economic Studies [u.a.], Munich

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    bc 1391-1229
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    1 : Z 104.53:1229
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 624 (1229)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1229 a
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1229 b
    keine Fernleihe
    ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, Bibliothek
    S32-1229 c
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel, and can be used to test for cross section dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross section units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distribution of these tests are derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T, and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the World.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 1229
    Schlagworte: Panel; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Dependence (Statistics); Panel analysis; Regression analysis
    Umfang: 40 S
    Bemerkung(en):

    Literaturverz. S.39-40

  7. Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (4401)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Deutsche Universität für Verwaltungswissenschaften Speyer, Universitätsbibliothek
    keine Ausleihe von Bänden, nur Papierkopien werden versandt
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4401
    Schlagworte: Strukturbruch; Prognoseverfahren; Autokorrelation
    Umfang: 36 S.
  8. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (4636)
    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Druck
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 4636
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie; Treasury bills
    Umfang: 38 S, graph. Darst
  9. Forecasting time series subject to multiple structural breaks
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    keine Fernleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63 (1237)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if any) by means of a hierarchical hidden Markov chain model. Predictions are formed by integrating over the hyper parameters from the meta distributions that characterize the stochastic break point process. In an application to US Treasury bill rates, we find that the method leads to better out-of-sample forecasts than alternative methods that ignore breaks, particularly at long horizons.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18876
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1237
    Schlagworte: Prognoseverfahren; Zeitreihenanalyse; Strukturbruch; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    keine Fernleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63 (1229)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper proposes simple tests of error cross section dependence which are applicable to a variety of panel data models, including stationary and unit root dynamic heterogeneous panels with short T and large N. The proposed tests are based on average of pair-wise correlation coefficients of the OLS residuals from the individual regressions in the panel, and can be used to test for cross section dependence of any fixed order p, as well as the case where no a priori ordering of the cross section units is assumed, referred to as CD(p) and CD tests, respectively. Asymptotic distribution of these tests are derived and their power function analyzed under different alternatives. It is shown that these tests are correctly centred for fixed N and T, and are robust to single or multiple breaks in the slope coefficients and/or error variances. The small sample properties of the tests are investigated and compared to the Lagrange multiplier test of Breusch and Pagan using Monte Carlo experiments. It is shown that the tests have the correct size in very small samples and satisfactory power, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test is illustrated by applying it to study the degree of dependence in per capita output innovations across countries within a given region and across countries in different regions. The results show significant evidence of cross dependence in output innovations across many countries and regions in the World.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18868
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1229
    Schlagworte: Panel; Statistischer Test; Theorie; Dependence (Statistics); Panel analysis; Regression analysis
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  11. Random coefficient panel data models
    Erschienen: July 2004
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficients models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    keine Fernleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63 (1233)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficients models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical inference of a random coefficients formulation using both the sampling and Bayesian approaches. The paper also provides a review of heterogeneous dynamic panels, testing for homogeneity under weak exogeneity, simultaneous equation random coefficient models, and the more recent developments in the area of cross-sectional dependence in panel data models. Keywords: random coefficient models, dynamic heterogeneous panels, classical and Bayesian approaches, tests of slope heterogeneity, cross section dependence.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/18872
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 1233
    Schlagworte: Panel; Theorie
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  12. Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    keine Fernleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63 (1176)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions. The extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed. To identify contagion effects in the presence of inter-dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country (market) specific forcing variables. This sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation-based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country (market) specific fundamentals. Finally, we show that ignoring inter-dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient, and using Monte Carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/76564
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo Working Paper ; 1176
    Schlagworte: Finanzkrise; Ökonometrisches Modell; Contagion
    Umfang: Online-Ressource
  13. Real time econometrics
    Erschienen: 2004
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that... mehr

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    keine Fernleihe
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    keine Fernleihe
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 63 (1169)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated systems and discusses some of the possible ways advanced in the literature for dealing with them. The role of feedbacks from the decision-maker s actions to the data generating process is also discussed and highlighted through an example.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/76550
    RVK Klassifikation: QB 910
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo Working Paper ; 1169
    Schlagworte: Ökonometrie; Zeit; Management-Informationssystem; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource