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  1. Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist?
    prognosis from 21st century pandemics
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Furceri, Davide; Líbano Monteiro, Francisco; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan David; Pizzuto, Pietro; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led... mehr

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    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
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    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582351
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 119
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemics; sustainability; poverty; climate; inequality; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist?
    prognosis from 21st century pandemics
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Furceri, Davide; Líbano Monteiro, Francisco; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan David; Pizzuto, Pietro; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: April 2021
    Verlag:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    uneingeschränkte Fernleihe, Kopie und Ausleihe

     

    COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582351
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 119
    Schlagworte: COVID-19; pandemics; sustainability; poverty; climate; inequality; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Recalculating the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Shayegh, Soheil; Bosetti, Valentina; Dietz, Simon; Emmerling, Johannes; Hambel, Christoph; Jensen, Svenn; Kraft, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo; Traeger, Christian; Ploeg, Frederick van der
    Erschienen: May 2018
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters,... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (2018,19)
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    keine Fernleihe

     

    Over the last few decades, integrated assessment models (IAM) have provided insight into the relationship between climate change, economy, and climate policies. The limitations of these models in capturing uncertainty in climate parameters, heterogeneity in damages and policies, have given rise to skepticism about the relevance of these models for policy making. IAM community needs to respond to these critics and to the new challenges posed by developments in the policy arena. New climate targets emerging from the Paris Agreement and the uncertainty about the signatories' commitment to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are prime examples of challenges that need to be addressed in the next generation of IAMs. Given these challenges, calculating the social cost of carbon requires a new framework. This can be done by computing marginal abatement cost in cost-effective settings which provides different results than those calculated using constrained cost-benefit analysis. Here we focus on the areas where IAMs can be deployed to asses uncertainty and risk management, learning, and regional heterogeneity in climate change impacts.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/191361
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2018, 019
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 9 Seiten)
  4. Quantifying non-cooperative climate engineering
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: December 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    The mismatch between actions to combat climate change, which are based on voluntary national initiatives of limited effort, and the recognition of the importance of global warming is growing. Climate engineering via solar radiation management has... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The mismatch between actions to combat climate change, which are based on voluntary national initiatives of limited effort, and the recognition of the importance of global warming is growing. Climate engineering via solar radiation management has been proposed as a possible complement to traditional climate policies. However, climate engineering entails specific risks, including its governance. Free driving, the possibility of unilateral climate engineering to the detriment of other nations, has been recently proposed as a potentially powerful additional externality to the traditional free riding one (Weitzman, 2015). This paper provides the first quantitative evaluation of the risks of free driving. Our results indicate that in a strategic setting there is significant over-provision (by almost an order of magnitude) of climate engineering above what is socially optimal, resulting in a sub-optimal global climate. Regions with high climate change impacts, most notably India and developing Asia, deploy climate engineering at the expenses of other regions.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/177252
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 058
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Geoengineering and abatement
    a "flat" relationship under uncertainty
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its... mehr

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    The potential of geoengineering as an alternative or complementary option to mitigation and adaptation has received increased interest in recent years. The scientific assessment of geoengineering is driven to a large extent by assumptions about its effectiveness, costs, and impacts, all of which are highly uncertain. This has led to a polarizing debate. This paper evaluates the role of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the optimal abatement path, focusing on the uncertainty about the effectiveness of SRM and the interaction with uncertain climate change response. Using standard economic models of dynamic decision theory under uncertainty, we show that abatement is decreasing in the probability of success of SRM, but that this relation is concave and thus that significant abatement reductions are optimal only if SRM is very likely to be effective. The results are confirmed even when considering positive correlation structures between the effectiveness of geoengineering and the magnitude of climate change. Using a stochastic version of an Integrated Assessment Model, the results are found to be robust for a wide range of parameters specification. -- Geoengineering ; Mitigation ; Climate Policy ; Uncertainty

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/72957
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 31.2013
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (34 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in developing Asia
    Autor*in: Reis, Lara Aleluia; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo; Raitzer, David
    Erschienen: December 2016
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious... mehr

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    Developing Asia has the world's fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses an economy-energy-climate model to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business as usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement's goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius (2°C) warming. The policy costs of Asia's pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2°C scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2°C scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2°C scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region - if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.

     
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    hdl: 10419/169335
    Schriftenreihe: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 504 (December 2016)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Challenges and opportunities for integrated modeling of climate engineering
    Autor*in: Tavoni, Massimo; Bosetti, Valentina; Shayegh, Soheil; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Fuß, Sabine; Goeschl, Timo; Guivarch, Celine; Lontzek, Thomas; Manoussi, Vassiliki; Moreno Cruz, Juan; Muri, Helene; Quaas, Martin F.; Rickels, Wilfried
    Erschienen: 2017
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the implementation of these ambitious targets particularly challenging. Climate engineering - both through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) - is currently discussed to potentially complement mitigation and adaptation. Results from integrated assessment models already suggest a significant role for some forms of climate engineering in achieving stringent climate objectives1. However, these estimates and their underlying assumptions are uncertain and currently heavily debated2-4. By reviewing the existing literature and reporting the views of experts, we identify research gaps and priorities for improving the integrated assessment of climate engineering. Results point to differentiated roles of CDR and SRM as complementary strategies to the traditional ones, as well as diverse challenges for an adequate representation in integrated assessment models. We identify potential synergies for model development which can help better represent mitigation and adaptation challenges, as well as climate engineering.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/177232
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2017, 38
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The WITCH 2016 model
    documentation and implementation of the shared socioeconomic pathways
    Autor*in: Emmerling, Johannes; Drouet, Laurent; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Bevione, Michela; Berger, Loic; Bosetti, Valentina; Carrara, Samuel; De Cian, Enrica; De Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier; Longden, Tom; Malpede, Maurizio; Marangoni, Giacomo; Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo; Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Havlik, Petr
    Erschienen: June 17, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a... mehr

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    This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed bottom-up energy sector model. A particular focus of the model is the modeling or technical change and RnD investments and the analysis of cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. Moreover, the WITCH 2016 version now includes land-use change modeling based on the GLOBIOM model, and air pollutants, as well as detailed modeling of the transport sector and the possibility for stochastic modeling. This version has been also used to implement the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) set of scenarios and RCP based climate policies to provide a new set of climate scenarios. In this paper, we describe in detail the mathematical formulation of the WITCH model, the solution method and calibration, as well as the implementation of the five SSP scenarios. This report therefore provides detailed information for interested users of the model, and for understanding the implementation of the different "worlds" of the SSP.

     
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    hdl: 10419/142316
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 42
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen