Direkt zur Hauptnavigation springen Direkt zum Inhalt springen
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Filtern nach
Aktive Filter
Letzte Suchanfragen

Ergebnisse für *

Zeige Ergebnisse 1 bis 25 von 147.

  1. Read my lips?
    taxes and elections
    Autor*in: Fuest, Clemens; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: November 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic Surveys from the OECD and 37,000 tax-related news from the IBFD archives. The data set provides indicators... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We introduce a new dataset that includes quantitative harmonized indices of tax reforms based on qualitative information of about 900 Economic Surveys from the OECD and 37,000 tax-related news from the IBFD archives. The data set provides indicators on tax reforms for tax rates and tax bases, along with detailed sub-indices for six types of taxes (23 countries, 1960–2014). Relating tax reforms to the timing of elections, we examine electoral cycles in tax reforms. Our results show that politicians postpone tax rate increases to after elections. A key innovation of our data set is the coverage of harmonized indices for six tax types. Examining heterogeneity across tax types, we find that electoral cycles are particularly pronounced for value added tax rates and personal income tax rates.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/248946
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9401 (2021)
    Schlagworte: tax reforms; tax systems; tax rates; tax bases; data set; electoral cycle
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Populists in power
    Autor*in: Dörr, Luisa; Potrafke, Niklas; Rösel, Felix
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how populist governments influence political culture and economic outcomes. Some Austrian communities are governed by far-right populist mayors, directly elected by a majority of voters. We exploit close elections and find that the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine how populist governments influence political culture and economic outcomes. Some Austrian communities are governed by far-right populist mayors, directly elected by a majority of voters. We exploit close elections and find that the electorate becomes more polarized under populist mayors. However, polarization is not limited to politics. A major innovation of our study is using data on team members of local football teams. Our results show that diversity in local football teams decreases when populists are in power, indicating that populists infiltrate the civic society. When it comes to economic outcomes, migration and budget transparency decrease under populist governments.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245517
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9336 (2021)
    Schlagworte: populism; far-right politics; partisan politics; polarization; immigration; economic policy; local government; budget transparency
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Trade openness and income inequality
    new empirical evidence
    Autor*in: Dorn, Florian; Fuest, Clemens; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245384
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9203 (2021)
    Schlagworte: trade openness; globalization; income inequality; instrumental variable estimation; panel econometrics; development levels; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Do left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants?
    empirical evidence from the German states
    Autor*in: Kauder, Björn; Krause, Manuela; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate whether left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants. The data is based on salaries of civil servants in the German states. Since a reform in 2006, German state governments are allowed to design salaries of civil... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We investigate whether left-wing governments decrease wage inequality among civil servants. The data is based on salaries of civil servants in the German states. Since a reform in 2006, German state governments are allowed to design salaries of civil servants. We employ encompassing data for pay levels and professions including judges, professors, policemen, and administrators and distinguish between levels of operating experiences. We use six wage inequality measures comparing salaries across pay levels and operating experiences. The results do not suggest that left-wing governments were more active in decreasing wage inequality among civil servants than center or right-wing governments. Cabinet members are civil servants themselves and decide on their own salaries: government ideology is also not shown to predict salaries of cabinet members. Because left-wing governments are perceived as taking action against income and wage inequality, future research should employ data from other federal states such as the United States to examine how government ideology influences salaries of civil servants.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229541
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8723 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Green governments
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas; Wüthrich, Kaspar
    Erschienen: November 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine how Green governments influence macroeconomic, education, and environmental outcomes. Our empirical strategy exploits that the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan gave rise to an unanticipated change in government in the German state... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine how Green governments influence macroeconomic, education, and environmental outcomes. Our empirical strategy exploits that the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan gave rise to an unanticipated change in government in the German state Baden-Wuerttemberg in 2011. The incumbent rightwing government was replaced by a leftwing government led by the Green party. We use the synthetic control method to select control states against which Baden-Wuerttemberg’s outcomes can be compared. The results do not suggest that the Green government influenced macroeconomic outcomes. The Green government implemented education policies that caused comprehensive schools to become larger. We find no evidence that the Green government influenced CO2 emissions, particulate matter emissions, or increased energy usage from renewable energies overall. An intriguing result is that the share of wind power usage decreased relative to the estimated counterfactual. Intra-ecological conflicts and realities in public office are likely to have prevented the Green government from implementing drastic policy changes.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229544
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8726 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Experts and epidemics
    Autor*in: Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Do experts adjust their policy recommendations when the facts change? We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment among 1,224 economic experts across 109 countries that includes two treatments. The first treatment is the geographic and temporal... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Do experts adjust their policy recommendations when the facts change? We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment among 1,224 economic experts across 109 countries that includes two treatments. The first treatment is the geographic and temporal variation in the initial spread of Covid-19 during March 2020, which we use as a natural experiment. The second is a randomly assigned information treatment that informs experts about the past macroeconomic performance of their country. We find that greater exposure to Covid-19 decreases the probability to recommend contractionary fiscal policies. A better macroeconomic performance increases the probability to implement contractionary policies and reduces the exposure effect to Covid-19. While our results show that experts adjust their policy recommendations to changing environments, sentiment analyses of open-ended questions asked after the treatment suggest that these adjustments are caused by Bayesian information updating and not by a change in preferences.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226258
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8556 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Protectionism and economic growth
    causal evidence from the first era of globalization
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian; Wüthrich, Kaspar
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. Tariffs increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy in the short-run by increasing government expenditure.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229577
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8759 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. General or central government?
    empirical evidence on political cycles in budget composition using new data for OECD countries
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: February 2020
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Previous studies used general government data to examine whether national governments' electoral motives and ideology influenced budget composition in OECD countries. General government data includes, however, the state and local level. Using new data for general and central government over the period 1995-2016, I reexamine political cycles in budget composition. The results suggest that, both at the general and central government level, leftwing governments spent more on education and less on public services than rightwing governments. Defense expenditure was somewhat lower under leftwing than rightwing governments and in election years; especially in federal states. Effects of government ideology on the individual expenditure categories are larger at the central than general government level. Scholars need to re-examine results on ideology-induced effects that have been derived from general government data where central government data should have been used.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/214235
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 322 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten)
  9. Rewarding conservative politicians?
    evidence from voting on same-sex marriage
    Autor*in: Kauder, Björn; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: June 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine whether voters rewarded conservative politicians who were voting in favor of same-sex marriage. Data is based on a roll-call vote in the German national parliament (Bundestag) in June 2017. This roll-call vote drastically influenced the... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine whether voters rewarded conservative politicians who were voting in favor of same-sex marriage. Data is based on a roll-call vote in the German national parliament (Bundestag) in June 2017. This roll-call vote drastically influenced the public discourse about the social political platform of the conservative party. National elections took place in September 2017. The results show that the vote share of conservative politicians who voted in favor of same-sex marriage was around 1.29 percentage points (around 0.33 standard deviations of the change in the first vote share) higher than the vote share of conservative politicians who did not vote in favor of same-sex marriage. Voters were seeking for outcomes other than economic outcomes to evaluate politicians' performance in office.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235244
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 355 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Rewarding and punishing politicians; conservative politicians; roll-call votes; same-sex marriage; economic voting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Covid-19 vaccination
    the role of crisis experience
    Autor*in: Gründler, Klaus; Hackenberger, Armin; Harter, Anina; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose that crisis experience influences preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination and the speed of vaccination during the initial phase when vaccines became available. We use macro and micro data to empirically investigate our theory and... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We propose that crisis experience influences preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination and the speed of vaccination during the initial phase when vaccines became available. We use macro and micro data to empirically investigate our theory and introduce a novel crisis experience index. Evidence based on macro data shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in our new crisis experience index gives rise to around 10 additional administered vaccine doses per 100 citizens (around one standard deviation). Our micro-level analysis provides evidence for a microfoundation of the macro-level results, indicating that the crisis history of countries is positively correlated with preferences towards COVID-19 vaccination. Disentangling socialization effects and experience effects, we find that citizens who have experienced crises during their impressionable years (ages 18–25) have stronger preferences for being vaccinated against COVID-19 than others.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235466
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9096 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Covid-19 vaccination; crisis experience; crisis management; experience effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232430
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8833 (2021)
    Schlagworte: US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; Randomized Controlled Trial; causal inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Collective memories on the 2010 European debt crisis
    Autor*in: Arnemann, Laura; Konrad, Kai A.; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine whether collective memories on the aid&reform programs chosen to handle the 2010 European debt crisis differ between citizens from borrower and lender countries. We use new international survey data for non-experts and experts in member... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine whether collective memories on the aid&reform programs chosen to handle the 2010 European debt crisis differ between citizens from borrower and lender countries. We use new international survey data for non-experts and experts in member countries of the euro area. The results show that non-experts from borrower and lender countries remember aspects of the programs in different manners; indicating biases for assessments of how the crisis outcomes are perceived in borrower and lender countries. Nation-serving biases may well explain if the European debt crisis has reduced the sense of belonging rather than bringing European citizens closer together.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232422
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8825 (2021)
    Schlagworte: collective memories; European debt crisis; nation-serving biases; aid&reform programmes; experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Trade openness and income inequality
    new empirical evidence
    Autor*in: Dorn, Florian; Fuest, Clemens; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: July 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970-2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235942
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 359 (2021)
    Schlagworte: Trade openness; globalization; income inequality; instrumental variable estimation; panel econometrics; development levels; transition economies
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The global economic impact of politicians
    evidence from an international survey RCT
    Autor*in: Boumans, Dorine; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Ruthardt, Fabian
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 677
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/233801
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 56 (2021, January)
    Schlagworte: US Presidential Elections; Politicians; Economic Expectations; EconomicExperts; Randomized Controlled Trial; Causal Inference
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Corruption and economic growth
    new empirical evidence
    Autor*in: Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not comparable over time. The CPI is comparable over time since the year 2012. We employ new data for 175 countries over the period 2012-2018 and re-examine the nexus between corruption and economic growth. The cumulative long-run effect of corruption on growth is that real per capita GDP decreased by around 17% when the reversed CPI increased by one standard deviation. The effect of corruption on economic growth is especially pronounced in autocracies and transmits to growth by decreasing FDI and increasing inflation.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207207
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7816 (August 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Fiscal performance of minority governments
    new empirical evidence for OECD countries
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    I use new data on central and general governments for 23 OECD countries over the period 1960-2015 (unbalanced panel) to examine fiscal performance under minority governments. The results do not suggest that minority governments had higher fiscal... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    I use new data on central and general governments for 23 OECD countries over the period 1960-2015 (unbalanced panel) to examine fiscal performance under minority governments. The results do not suggest that minority governments had higher fiscal deficits and public expenditure than majority governments - corroborating many previous studies. An innovation of my study is to examine fiscal policies of minority governments that enjoy organized support of opposition parties. The results do not show that minority governments that enjoy organized support of opposition parties increased public expenditure to a larger extent than majority governments. If anything, fiscal deficits were somewhat higher under single-party minority governments with organized support of opposition parties than under majority governments especially. Minority and majority governments had quite similar fiscal performance in OECD countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213582
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 305 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  17. How to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece?
    empirical evidence based on a survey of economic experts
    Autor*in: Mosler, Martin; Potrafke, Niklas; Reischmann, Markus Josef
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts' recommendations. Our... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts' recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert's personal and country-level attributes. Country-level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programs of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213583
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 306 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten)
  18. How to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece?
    empirical evidence based on a survey of economic experts
    Autor*in: Mosler, Martin; Potrafke, Niklas; Reischmann, Markus Josef
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert’s personal and country-level attributes. Country-level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programs of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/202003
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7777 (August 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten)
  19. Partisan bias in inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Oliver; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Seiberlich, Ruben
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46 percentage points higher in Republican-dominated than in Democratic-dominated US states when Barack Obama was US president. Compared to inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated states, inflation expectations in Republican-dominated states declined by 0.73 percentage points when Donald Trump became president. We employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method to disentangle the extent to which political ideology and other individual characteristics predict inflation expectations: around 25% of the total difference between inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated versus Republican-dominated states is based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House’s occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the belief that voters' misperceptions of economic conditions decline when the president belongs to the party that voters support.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213588
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 311 (October 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  20. Partisan bias in inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Bachmann, Oliver; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas; Seiberlich, Ruben
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations over the period June 2013 to June 2018. The results show that inflation expectations were 0.46 percentage points higher in Republican-dominated than in Democratic-dominated US states when Barack Obama was US president. Compared to inflation expectations in Democratic-dominated states, inflation expectations in Republican-dominated states declined by 0.73 percentage points when Donald Trump became president. We employ the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method to disentangle the extent to which political ideology and other individual characteristics predict inflation expectations: around 25% of the total difference between inflation expectations in Democraticdominated versus Republican-dominated states is based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the belief that voters' misperceptions of economic conditions decline when the president belongs to the party that voters support.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/207295
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7904 (October 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  21. Fiscal performance of minority governments
    new empirical evidence for OECD countries
    Autor*in: Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    I use new data on central and general governments for 23 OECD countries over the period 1960-2015 (unbalanced panel) to examine fiscal performance under minority governments. The results do not suggest that minority governments had higher fiscal... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    I use new data on central and general governments for 23 OECD countries over the period 1960-2015 (unbalanced panel) to examine fiscal performance under minority governments. The results do not suggest that minority governments had higher fiscal deficits and public expenditure than majority governments - corroborating many previous studies. An innovation of my study is to examine fiscal policies of minority governments that enjoy organized support of opposition parties. The results do not show that minority governments that enjoy organized support of opposition parties increased public expenditure to a larger extent than majority governments. If anything, fiscal deficits were somewhat higher under single-party minority governments with organized support of opposition parties than under majority governments especially. Minority and majority governments had quite similar fiscal performance in OECD countries.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/201959
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 7733 (July 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  22. Corruption and economic growth
    new empirical evidence
    Autor*in: Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not... mehr

    Zugang:
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The nexus between corruption and economic growth has been examined for a long time. Many empirical studies measured corruption by the reversed Transparency International’s Perception of Corruption Index (CPI) and ignored that the CPI was not comparable over time. The CPI is comparable over time since the year 2012. We employ new data for 175 countries over the period 2012-2018 and re-examine the nexus between corruption and economic growth. The cumulative long-run effect of corruption on growth is that real per capita GDP decreased by around 17% when the reversed CPI increased by one standard deviation. The effect of corruption on economic growth is especially pronounced in autocracies and transmits to growth by decreasing FDI and increasing inflation.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213586
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 309 (August 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Compulsory voting and political participation
    empirical evidence from Austria
    Autor*in: Gäbler, Stefanie; Potrafke, Niklas; Rösel, Felix
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    We examine whether compulsory voting influences political participation as measured by voter turnout, invalid voting, political interest, confidence in parliament, and party membership. In Austria, some states temporarily introduced compulsory voting... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    We examine whether compulsory voting influences political participation as measured by voter turnout, invalid voting, political interest, confidence in parliament, and party membership. In Austria, some states temporarily introduced compulsory voting in national elections. We investigate border municipalities across two states which differ in compulsory voting legislation using a difference-in-differences approach. The results show that compulsory voting increased voter turnout by 3.5 percentage points but we do not find long-run effects. Once compulsory voting was abolished, voter turnout returned to pre-compulsory voting levels. Microdata evidence suggests that compulsory voting tends to crowd out intrinsic motivation for political participation which may explain why compulsory voting is not found to be habit-forming.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/213592
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 315 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Political shocks and inflation expectations
    evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supply-side effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favour an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260779
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9649 (2022)
    Schlagworte: inflation expectations; belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; economic experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Political shocks and inflation expectations
    evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Munich, Germany

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a... mehr

    Zugang:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 402
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supplyside effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favor an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251988
    Schriftenreihe: Ifo working papers ; 371 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Inflation expectations; belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; economic experts
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen