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  1. Baseline results from the EU28 EUROMOD
    2016-2019 / Jack Kneeshaw with Paola De Agostini, Kakia Chatsiou, Katrin Gasior, Holguer Xavier Jara Tamayo, Chrysa Leventi, Kostas Manios, Alari Paulus, Daria Popova, Iva Tasseva
    Autor*in: Kneeshaw, Jack; De Agostini, Paola; Chatsiou, Kakia; Gasior, Katrin; Jara, H. Xavier; Leventi, Chrysa; Manios, Kostas; Paulus, Alari; Popova, Daria; Tasseva, Iva
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

    This paper presents baseline results from the latest version of EUROMOD (version I2.0+), the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and... mehr

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    This paper presents baseline results from the latest version of EUROMOD (version I2.0+), the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. First, we briefly report the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and risk of poverty using EUROMOD and discuss the main reasons for differences between these and EU-SILC based indicators. We further compare EUROMOD distributional indicators across all EU 28 countries and over time between 2016 and 2019. Finally, we provide estimates of marginal effective tax rates (METR) for all 28 EU countries in order to explore the effect of tax and benefit systems on work incentives at the intensive margin. Throughout the paper, we highlight both the potential of EUROMOD as a tool for policy analysis and the caveats that should be borne in mind when using it and interpreting results. This paper updates the work reported in Tammik (2019).

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/259509
    Übergeordneter Titel: Baseline results from the EU28 EUROMOD - Alle Bände anzeigen
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 20, 20
    Schlagworte: microsimulation; redistribution; tax-benefit system; poverty; inequality; work incentives
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Klein, Caroline
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  OECD, Paris, France

    The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order... mehr

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    The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/estonia-economic-snapshot/)

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Schriftenreihe: OECD Economics Department working papers ; no. 1570
    Schlagworte: Economics; Estonia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Demographic change and the European income distribution
    Autor*in: Dolls, Mathias; Doorley, Karina; Paulus, Alari; Schneider, Hilmar; Sommer, Eric
    Erschienen: March 2018
    Verlag:  IZA, Bonn, Germany

    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments.... mehr

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    Deutsches Zentrum für Altersfragen e.V. (DZA), Bibliothek
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    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should increase income inequality, while the effect of up-skilling is more ambiguous. Tax-benefit systems may stabilize these expected changes though this is largely an empirical question given their typically complex nature. We use a decomposition technique to isolate the effect of projected demographic change on income inequality and poverty from the reaction of the labor market to this demographic change through wage adjustments. Our results show that demographic change is likely to lead to increasing inequality while related wage adjustments work mainly in the opposite direction. Changes to projected relative poverty are minimal for most countries. With a few exceptions, EU tax-benefit systems are able to absorb most of projected increase in market income inequality.

     
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    hdl: 10419/180458
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 11440
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Indexing out of poverty?
    fiscal drag and benefit erosion in cross-national perspective
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly; Tasseva, Iva
    Erschienen: March 2019
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

    We assess how tax-benefit policy developments in 2001-2011 affected the household income distribution in seven EU countries. We use the standard microsimulation-based decomposition method, separating further the effect of structural policy changes... mehr

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    We assess how tax-benefit policy developments in 2001-2011 affected the household income distribution in seven EU countries. We use the standard microsimulation-based decomposition method, separating further the effect of structural policy changes and the uprating of monetary parameters, which allows us to measure the extent of fiscal drag and benefit erosion in practice. The results show that despite different fiscal effects, policies overall mostly reduced poverty and inequality and both types of policy developments had sizeable effects on the income distribution. We also find that the uprating of monetary parameters not only had a positive effect on household incomes, meaning fiscal drag and benefit erosion were avoided, but generally also contributed more to poverty and inequality reduction than structural policy reforms.

     
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    hdl: 10419/228382
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 19, 3
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Klein, Caroline
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  OECD, Paris, France

    The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order... mehr

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    The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia (http://www.oecd.org/economy/estonia-economic-snapshot/)

     
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    Quelle: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Schriftenreihe: OECD Economics Department working papers ; no. 1570
    Schlagworte: Economics; Estonia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Measuring the fiscal and equity impact of tax evasion
    evidence from Denmark and Estonia
    Autor*in: Barrios Cobos, Salvador; Greve, Bent; Hussain, M. Azhar; Paulus, Alari; Picos, Fidel; Riscado, Sara
    Erschienen: December 2017
    Verlag:  European Commission, Sevilla, Spain

    In the European context where fiscal consolidation is required in many countries, tax non-compliance behaviour becomes a very relevant issue for governments and policy makers. In this paper, we aim at contributing to the assessment of tax... mehr

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    In the European context where fiscal consolidation is required in many countries, tax non-compliance behaviour becomes a very relevant issue for governments and policy makers. In this paper, we aim at contributing to the assessment of tax non-compliance, by estimating individual measures of tax evasion, focusing on employment earnings for two countries, Denmark and Estonia. Additionally, we simulate two different scenarios - a "true world" where some individuals underreport their income to the tax authorities and a "perfect world" where everyone reports truthfully their incomes - in the European microsimulation model EUROMOD, allowing us to obtain the fiscal and distributional effects of taking into account evaded employment income. Furthermore, the Estonian country case allows us to illustrate the importance of linking survey and administrative data not only to accurately estimate tax evasion, but also to correct survey income amounts for measurement error. Preliminary findings indicate that taking into account non-reported incomes has non-negligible fiscal and distributional effects when these are taken into account to compute tax liabilities and benefits, even in a country where estimated non-reported income represent a low percentage of earnings, such as Denmark.

     
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    hdl: 10419/202251
    Schriftenreihe: JRC working papers on taxation and strucutral reforms ; no 2017, 05
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Income underreporting by the self-employed in Europe: a cross-country comparative study
    Autor*in: Kukk, Merike; Paulus, Alari; Stæhr, Karsten
    Erschienen: 2018
    Verlag:  Eesti Pank, [Tallinn]

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    ISBN: 9789949606368
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 2018,04
    Schlagworte: Selbstständige; Einkommen; Engel-Kurve; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: 36 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  8. Demographic change and the European income distribution
    Autor*in: Dolls, Mathias; Doorley, Karina; Paulus, Alari; Schneider, Hilmar; Sommer, Eric
    Erschienen: April 2018
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments.... mehr

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    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should increase income inequality, while the effect of up-skilling is more ambiguous. Tax-benefit systems may stabilize these expected changes though this is largely an empirical question given their typically complex nature. We use a decomposition technique to isolate the effect of projected demographic change on income inequality and poverty from the reaction of the labor market to this demographic change through wage adjustments. Our results show that demographic change is likely to lead to increasing inequality while related wage adjustments work mainly in the opposite direction. Changes to projected relative poverty are minimal for most countries. With a few exceptions, EU tax-benefit systems are able to absorb most of projected increase in market income inequality.

     
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    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/197576
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 18, 9
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Demographic change and the European income distribution
    Autor*in: Dolls, Mathias; Doorley, Karina; Paulus, Alari; Schneider, Hilmar; Sommer, Eric
    Erschienen: March 2018
    Verlag:  IZA, Bonn, Germany

    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments.... mehr

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    Deutsches Zentrum für Altersfragen e.V. (DZA), Bibliothek
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    This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and upskilling) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should increase income inequality, while the effect of up-skilling is more ambiguous. Tax-benefit systems may stabilize these expected changes though this is largely an empirical question given their typically complex nature. We use a decomposition technique to isolate the effect of projected demographic change on income inequality and poverty from the reaction of the labor market to this demographic change through wage adjustments. Our results show that demographic change is likely to lead to increasing inequality while related wage adjustments work mainly in the opposite direction. Changes to projected relative poverty are minimal for most countries. With a few exceptions, EU tax-benefit systems are able to absorb most of projected increase in market income inequality.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/180458
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 11440
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe on equity and efficiency
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Peichl, Andreas
    Erschienen: 2008
    Verlag:  Inst. for Social and Economic Research, Colchester

    The flat income tax has become increasingly popular recently, yet its implementation is limited to Eastern Europe. We analyse the distributional and efficiency eects of flat tax scenarios for Western European countries. Our simulations show that flat... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The flat income tax has become increasingly popular recently, yet its implementation is limited to Eastern Europe. We analyse the distributional and efficiency eects of flat tax scenarios for Western European countries. Our simulations show that flat tax rates required to attain revenue neutrality with existing basic allowances improve labour supply incentives. However, they result in higher inequality and polarisation. Flat rates necessary to keep the inequality levels unchanged allow for some scope for flat taxes to increase both equity and efficiency. Our analysis suggests that Mediterranean countries are more likely to benefit from flat taxes.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/92084
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: 11th March 2008
    Schriftenreihe: ISER Working Paper Series ; 2008-06
    Schlagworte: Flat-rate income tax
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (32 S.), Ill., graph. Darst., Kt., digital, PDF file
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    System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader

    Mode of access: World Wide Web

    Includes bibliographical references

    Title from p.1 of PDF file (viewed on 8 Jul., 2008)
  11. Measuring the size and impact of public cash support for children in cross-national perspective
    Autor*in: Figari, Francesco; Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The paper focuses on the support given through tax and benefit systems to families with children and addresses how the size and impact on the income distribution of this kind of support can be accurately measured. While such support is usually... mehr

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    The paper focuses on the support given through tax and benefit systems to families with children and addresses how the size and impact on the income distribution of this kind of support can be accurately measured. While such support is usually measured in rather narrow terms by adding up the benefits explicitly labelled as being for children, we adopt a more comprehensive approach whereby all tax-benefit instruments (or their components) which are contingent on the presence of children are accounted for. We use EUROMOD, the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model, to quantify the support for children and analyse its impact on household incomes and child poverty for 19 countries. We find that the conventional approach underestimates on average the total amount of support for children by about one fifth. Furthermore, accounting for the net effect of the full range of components of cash support makes little difference fifth. Furthermore, accounting for the net effect of the full range of components of cash support makes little difference in some countries but a lot more in others. For cross-national comparisons it is therefore critical that a comprehensive measure is adopted. -- Children ; taxes and cash benefits ; child poverty ; European Union ; microsimulation.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; 09,06
    Schlagworte: Sozialpolitik; Familienleistungsausgleich; Steuervergünstigung; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen; Kinderarmut; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 22 S.), graph. Darst.
  12. The distributional impact of in kind public benefits in European countries
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly; Tsakloglou, Panos O.
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    International comparisons of inequality based on measures of disposable income may not be valid if the size and incidence of publicly-provided in kind benefits differ across the countries considered. The benefits that are financed by taxation in one... mehr

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    International comparisons of inequality based on measures of disposable income may not be valid if the size and incidence of publicly-provided in kind benefits differ across the countries considered. The benefits that are financed by taxation in one country may need to be purchased out of disposable income in another. We estimate the size and incidence of in kind or non cashʺ benefits from public housing subsidies, education and health care for five European countries using comparable methods and data. Inequality in the augmented income measure is dramatically lower than in disposable income, with the effects of the three components varying in importance across countries. Adapting equivalence scales to take proper account of differences in needs for health care and education across population members reduces the scale of the effect, but does not eliminate it. -- inequality ; in kind transfers ; cross-national comparisons

     
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    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; 09,10
    Schlagworte: Soziale Lage; Verfügbares Einkommen; Subvention; Immobilienfinanzierung; Bildungswesen; Gesundheitswesen; Lebensqualität; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 34 S.), graph. Darst.
  13. Microsimulation and policy analysis
    Autor*in: Figari, Francesco; Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  ISER, [Colchester]

    We provide an overview of microsimulation approaches to assess the effects of policy on the income distribution. We focus mainly on the role of tax-benefit policies and review the concept of microsimulation and how it contributes to the analysis of... mehr

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    We provide an overview of microsimulation approaches to assess the effects of policy on the income distribution. We focus mainly on the role of tax-benefit policies and review the concept of microsimulation and how it contributes to the analysis of the income distribution in general and policy evaluation in particular. We consider the main challenges and limitations and discuss directions for future developments.

     
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    hdl: 10419/123803
    Schriftenreihe: ISER Working Paper Series ; 2014-23
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (120 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. The distributional impact of in kind public benefits in European countries
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly; Tsakloglou, Panos O.
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  IZA, Bonn

    International comparisons of inequality based on measures of disposable income may not be valid if the size and incidence of publicly-provided in kind benefits differ across the countries considered. The benefits that are financed by taxation in one... mehr

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    International comparisons of inequality based on measures of disposable income may not be valid if the size and incidence of publicly-provided in kind benefits differ across the countries considered. The benefits that are financed by taxation in one country may need to be purchased out of disposable income in another. We estimate the size and incidence of in kind or "non cash" benefits from public housing subsidies, education and health care for five European countries using comparable methods and data. Inequality in the augmented income measure is dramatically lower than in disposable income, with the effects of the three components varying in importance across countries. Adapting equivalence scales to take proper account of differences in needs for health care and education across population members reduces the scale of the effect, but does not eliminate it. -- Inequality ; in kind transfers ; cross-national comparisons

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 4581
    Schlagworte: Sachtransfer; Verteilungswirkung; Einkommensverteilung; Belgien; Deutschland; Griechenland; Italien; Großbritannien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. Fiscal sustainability and demographic change
    a micro approach for 27 EU countries
    Autor*in: Dolls, Mathias; Doorley, Karina; Paulus, Alari; Schneider, Hilmar; Siegloch, Sebastian; Sommer, Eric
    Erschienen: January 2016
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

    The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government... mehr

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    The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.

     
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    hdl: 10419/157932
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 16/1
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Fiscal sustainability and demographic change
    a micro approach for 27 EU countries
    Autor*in: Dolls, Mathias; Doorley, Karina; Paulus, Alari; Schneider, Hilmar; Siegloch, Sebastian; Sommer, Eric
    Erschienen: December 2015
    Verlag:  IZA, Bonn

    The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government... mehr

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    The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.

     
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    hdl: 10419/130292
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IZA ; no. 9618
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The effect of changes in tax-benefit policies on the income distribution in 2008-2015
    Autor*in: De Agostini, Paola; Paulus, Alari; Tasseva, Iva
    Erschienen: July 2016
    Verlag:  [Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex], [Colchester, Essex, UK]

    We apply microsimulation techniques to estimate the first-order effects of tax-benefit policy changes since the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. Using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD in combination with the EU-SILC 2012... mehr

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    We apply microsimulation techniques to estimate the first-order effects of tax-benefit policy changes since the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. Using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD in combination with the EU-SILC 2012 micro-data, we provide comparative estimates for EU-27 in 2008-2014 as well as for 21 EU member states in 2014-2015. The analysis covers direct tax and cash benefit changes and evaluates their effects on the income distribution, poverty and inequality levels, holding population characteristics and market incomes constant, thereby, isolating direct policy effects from other factors shaping the income distribution. Two different indexation approaches are used to adjust benchmark policies over time - prices and market incomes - and explore the sensitivity of results. We find substantial cross-national variation throughout the whole period. At the EU level, policy changes in the first half of the period (2008-2011) were poverty-reducing and had a positive effect on mean incomes, while the effects were the opposite in the later period (2011-2014); and inequality-reducing in both periods.

     
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    hdl: 10419/197592
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 16, 6
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The design of fiscal consolidation measures in the European Union
    distributional effects and implications for macroeconomic recovery
    Autor*in: Figari, Francesco; Paulus, Alari; Sutherland, Holly
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    The financial and economic crisis which started in the late 2000s and the fiscal consolidation measures to counter the subsequent government budget deficits have an impact on household income distribution and macroeconomic recovery. We consider the... mehr

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    The financial and economic crisis which started in the late 2000s and the fiscal consolidation measures to counter the subsequent government budget deficits have an impact on household income distribution and macroeconomic recovery. We consider the austerity measures in relation to their distributional impact and the potential channels through which fiscal consolidation can affect economic growth. We find notable variation in the size, composition and effects of fiscal consolidation. Richer households tend to bear a greater burden in most countries but spending cuts are more likely to affect liquidity constrained households casting doubts over previous findings in the macro-economic literature about the effectiveness of such measures. This suggests the need to consider more disaggregated evidence to reach robust policy conclusions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/113346
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; 5/15
    Schlagworte: Haushaltskonsolidierung; Wirkungsanalyse; Einkommensverteilung; Mikrosimulation; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. The effect of tax-benefit changes on the income distribution in 2008 - 2014
    Autor*in: De Agostini, Paola; Paulus, Alari; Tasseva, Iva
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    More than half of the EU countries have become poorer and more unequal since the start of the crisis in 2008. Despite lack of timely household micro data, using microsimulation techniques with up-to-date information on policy rules enables us to... mehr

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    More than half of the EU countries have become poorer and more unequal since the start of the crisis in 2008. Despite lack of timely household micro data, using microsimulation techniques with up-to-date information on policy rules enables us to estimate the direct effect of tax-benefit policy changes in 2008-2014 on the income distribution, poverty and inequality levels in 10 EU countries, as well as track most recent trends by evaluating policy effects in 2013-2014. We identify and quantify these effects using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to construct relevant counterfactual scenarios. Our results indicate that among these countries, most managed to pursue policies without adverse distributional effects, despite of challenging economic problems in this period. However, this has been accompanied by reductions in household income in several countries. There have also been some cases of clearly regressive changes in particular policy instruments. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensive regular indexation to avoid the erosion of benefit amounts and tax thresholds over time, and specific population groups systematically gaining or losing relative to others.

     
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    hdl: 10419/113329
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; 11/15
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (37 S.), graph. Darst.
  20. Business investment, the user cost of capital and firm heterogeneity
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Eesti Pank, Tallinn

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    ISBN: 9789949606924
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 2022, 2
    Schlagworte: business investment; user cost of capital; corporate taxation; firm panel data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Credit market concentration and systemic risk in Europe
    Autor*in: Kukk, Merike; Paulus, Alari; Reig, Nicolas
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Eesti Pank, Tallinn

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    ISBN: 9789949606955
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 2022, 4
    Schlagworte: systemic risk; financial stability; credit institutions; credit growth; market concentration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Were jobs saved at the cost of productivity in the Covid-19 crisis?
    Autor*in: Meriküll, Jaanika; Paulus, Alari
    Erschienen: 2022
    Verlag:  Eesti Pank, Tallinn

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Eesti Pank ; 2022, 5
    Schlagworte: job reallocation; productivity; Covid-19; cleansing effect; firm exitand entry; job retention scheme
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Europe through the crisis
    discretionary policy changes and automatic stabilisers
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari; Tasseva, Iva Valentinova
    Erschienen: October 2018
    Verlag:  Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, UK

    Tax-benefit policies affect household incomes through two main channels: discretionary policy changes and automatic stabilisers. Although a large body of literature has studied the impact of tax-benefit policy changes on incomes, little is known... mehr

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    Tax-benefit policies affect household incomes through two main channels: discretionary policy changes and automatic stabilisers. Although a large body of literature has studied the impact of tax-benefit policy changes on incomes, little is known about the link between automatic stabilisers and the income distribution. We contribute to the literature by studying in detail the contribution of automatic stabilisers and discretionary policy changes to income changes in the EU countries between 2007 and 2014. Our results show that, discretionary policy changes and the automatic stabilisation response of policies more often worked to reduce inequality of net incomes, and so helped offset the inequality-increasing impact of a growing disparity in gross (pre-tax) market incomes. Inequality reduction was achieved mainly through policy changes to benefits and benefits acting as automatic stabilisers. On the other hand, policy changes to and the automatic stabilisation response of taxes and social insurance contributions raised inequality in some countries and lowered it in others.

     
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    hdl: 10419/197583
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM 18, 16
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The distributional effects of taxes and transfers under alternative income concepts
    the importance of three 'I's
    Autor*in: Figari, Francesco; Paulus, Alari
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Univ. of Essex, ESRC Research Centre on Micro-Social Change, Colchester

    This paper investigates how the distribution of income changes when the standard definition of disposable income is replaced by an extended income concept which takes into account the three 'I's: indirect taxes, imputed rent, and in-kind benefits.... mehr

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    This paper investigates how the distribution of income changes when the standard definition of disposable income is replaced by an extended income concept which takes into account the three 'I's: indirect taxes, imputed rent, and in-kind benefits. Second, it assesses how sensitive the distributional effects of each tax-benefit instrument are to the choice of income concept. The analysis covers three European countries (Belgium, Greece and the UK) characterised by substantially different tax-benefit systems, giving a stronger base for generalising the results. The main findings are that the overall redistributive effect of the tax-benefit systems depends heavily on the income concept considered and the differences across countries are smaller when considering the extended income distribution. Moreover, the common use of a narrower income concept, such as the disposable income, can lead to the overestimation of the redistributive effect of the cash tax-benefit instruments (in relative terms), the extent of this varying across countries, due to the size and distribution of three 'I's and the adoption of the needs-adjusted equivalence scale.

     
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    hdl: 10419/91652
    Schriftenreihe: EUROMOD working paper series ; EM15/13
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (24 S.)
  25. Tax evasion and measurement error
    an econometric analysis of survey data linked with tax records
    Autor*in: Paulus, Alari
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  ISER, [Colchester]

    We use income survey data linked with tax records at the individual level for Estonia to estimate the determinants and extent of income tax compliance in a novel way. Unlike earlier studies attributing income discrepancies between such data sources... mehr

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    We use income survey data linked with tax records at the individual level for Estonia to estimate the determinants and extent of income tax compliance in a novel way. Unlike earlier studies attributing income discrepancies between such data sources either to tax evasion or survey measurement error, we model these processes jointly. Focussing on employment income, the key identifying assumption made is that people working in public sector cannot evade taxes. The results indicate a number of socio-demographic and labour market characteristics, which are associated with non-compliance. Overall, people in the bottom and the top part of earnings distribution evade much more and about 12% of wages and salaries in total are underreported, which is very substantial for a major income source subject to third party reporting and tax withholding.

     
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    hdl: 10419/126489
    Schriftenreihe: ISER working paper series ; 2015-10
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (68 S.), graph. Darst.