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  1. Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

    We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty,... mehr

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    We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the United States and the UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future gross domestic product growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly-from an 80 percent rise (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose rapidly from late February and peaked in mid-March, falling back by late March as stock prices began to recover. In contrast, broader measures of uncertainty peaked later and then plateaued, as job losses mounted, highlighting the difference in uncertainty measures between Wall Street and Main Street.

     

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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228261
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2020, 9 (July 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Pandemic-era uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty... mehr

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    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and in potential gross domestic product.

     

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    hdl: 10419/244305
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021,2 (January 2021)
    Schlagworte: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Economic uncertainty before and during the Covid-19 pandemic

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    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 876
    Schlagworte: Forward-looking uncertainty measures; volatility; Covid-19; coronavirus
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Pandemic-era uncertainty
    Erschienen: April 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and... mehr

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    We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid 2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid 2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty - from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

     

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    hdl: 10419/263445
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15229
    Schlagworte: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions; capital investments; COVID-19
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The Shift to Remote Work Lessens Wage-Growth Pressures
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution

     

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; no. w30197
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  6. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

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    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near- term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution.

     

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    hdl: 10419/263601
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15385
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior... mehr

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    The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution.

     

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    hdl: 10419/270450
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2022, 7 (July 2022)
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressures
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), Stanford, CA

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    Schriftenreihe: Auch erschienen als: NBER working paper series no. 30197
    Working paper / Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) ; no. 22, 24 (July, 2022)
    Schlagworte: Telearbeit; Lohnbildung; Lohnniveau; Lohnquote; USA; Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; General; remote work; amenity value; wage growth; inflation dynamics; recession risk; business expectations; labor's share of national income; wage compression
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Tell me something i don't already know
    learning in low and high-inflation settings

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18299
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; Inflation expectations; Rational inattention; Randomized controlled trial (rct)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Surveying business uncertainty
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014... mehr

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    We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major industry in the nonfarm private sector, and a full range of firm sizes. We use SBU data to measure expected future outcomes for the growth of sales, employment, and investment for each firm and the uncertainty surrounding those expectations. Mean expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates in the firm-level data, and subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of absolute forecast errors. We also use the SBU data to produce a Business Expectations Index (first moment) and a Business Uncertainty Index (second moment) for the U.S. economy. In Granger causality tests, the Business Expectations Index has statistically significant predictive power for a range of prominent business cycle indicators. The SBU also includes special questions that elicit additional information, including the perceived effects of specific government policy developments on the firm's decisions and outcomes.

     

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    hdl: 10419/200551
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2019, 13 (June 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Tell me something I don't already know
    learning in low- and high-inflation settings

    Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms... mehr

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    Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

     

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    hdl: 10419/279463
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2023, 8 (July 2023)
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; inattention; RCTs; inflation expectation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Tell me something I don't already know
    learning in low and high-inflation settings

    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households... mehr

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    Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as what happens when the same agents are repeatedly provided information in both low- and high-inflation environments (Italy). Our results broadly support models in which inattention is an endogenous outcome that depends on the economic environment.

     

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    hdl: 10419/279003
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16305
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Wirtschaftsinformation; Geldpolitik; Rationale Erwartung; Randomisierte kontrollierte Studie; inattention; RCTs; inflation expectations
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the US
    use flow rates, mind the trend
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 1502
    Schlagworte: Unemployment Forecasting; Natural Rate; Unemployment Flows; Labor Market Search
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States
    use flow rates, mind the trend
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Ga.

    This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form... mehr

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    This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the more structural method in Tasci (2012) - to generalize whether data on unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow and outflow rates performs well in the near term. Over longer forecast horizons, Tasci (2012) appears to be a useful framework even though it was designed to be mainly a tool to uncover long-run labor market dynamics such as the "natural" rate. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate. Judgmental forecasts from professional economists tend to be the single best predictor of future unemployment rates. However, combining those guesses with flows-based approaches yields significant gains in forecasting accuracy.

     

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    hdl: 10419/114487
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2015-1
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  15. It’s not just for inflation
    the usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 1303
    Schlagworte: Inflation; Inflation forecasting; trimmed-mean estimators; Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (37 S.)
  16. Trimmed-mean inflation statistics
    just hit the one in the middle
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Ga.

    This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median consumer price index (CPI). Unlike previous... mehr

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    This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median consumer price index (CPI). Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed means using a well known equality of prediction test. We find that there is a large swath of trimmed means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, although the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always includes the median CPI - an extreme trim that holds conceptual and computational advantages. We conclude with a simple forecasting exercise that highlights the advantage of the median CPI (and trimmed-mean estimators in general) relative to other standard measures in forecasting headline inflation.

     

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    hdl: 10419/101031
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2014-3
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. Trimmed-mean inflation statistics
    just hit the one in the middle
    Erschienen: 2012
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 1217
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (22 S., 568,24 KB), graph. Darst.
  18. The usefulness of the median CPI in Bayesian VARs used for macroeconomic forecasting and policy
    Erschienen: [2016]
    Verlag:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Ga.

    In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in... mehr

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    In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting their usefulness in applications that require consistent forecasts of multiple macro variables. We find that inclusion of an extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are perhaps not surprising given the current literature on core inflation statistics, we also find that inclusion of the median CPI improves the forecasting accuracy of the central bank's primary instrument for monetary policy: the federal funds rate. We conclude with a few illustrative exercises that highlight the usefulness of using the median CPI.

     

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    hdl: 10419/172910
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2016, 13 (November 2016)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen